The technologies you resist aren't going to kill your business. But their second-order consequences might.

In 2007, thousands of NYC taxi drivers went on strike against GPS & touch screens. Their story offers essential lessons for workers, investors, and even whole cities.

1/ It all started with Mayor Bloomberg. In 2002, he vowed to turn NYC into a hub where "arts, business, research, and technology converge to create the world's foremost urban economy."

That meant embracing technology and innovation across the board.

2/

In 1930, the union of American singers spent the equivalent of $10m on a campaign to stop people from listening to recorded music and watching movies with sound. 1/ When films were silent, theatres employed local musicians to accompany each screening. But once films gained a soundtrack, local musicians were no longer necessary.

The economic implications were significant: 2/

Why is everything becoming less predictable?

Because the landscape is dancing. The internet compels us to constantly respond and adapt to each other's behavior.

Why does this happen and how can we succeed in such an environemnt?

1/ First, let's understand some key terms. Evolutionary Biologists use "fitness landscapes" to represent how well an organism's DNA is suited to its environment.

The higher you are on the map, the more "fit" you are — and the more likely to prosper under current conditions.

2/

Inequality is about to go through the roof. The constraints that created the middle class are losing their power.

To understand why, let's look at a comparison between highway networks and airline networks, published in 2007 by @barabasi. 1/ Let's start with the highway network. Each dot on the map represents a city, and each line represents a direct highway connection or "link".

If we assume "links" are valuable, what does the map tell us about the distribution of highway links?

2/

A networked economy cannot produce a middle class. Economists and policymakers aspire to bring back the 20th century. They seek a world with a broad middle class where standardized education produces standardized employees who fit into clearly-structured organizations and produce linear output through consistent effort. 2/

Creative work is inherently unequal. This is very visible in the income distributions of singers and movie stars, but less visible in white-collar professions.

Why? Thanks to/because of the office. 1/7 Office-based companies only hire from a small local talent pool. In a small pool, employees face less competition & are less likely to encounter "outlier" competitors who are 50x better than them. (if NBA teams only hired locally, worse players would get to join the league) 2/7

In a competitive market, people who accumulate value (become very rich) usually do so by contributing even more value to others.

This is generally true, but there are two serious caveats: the role of luck and the role of hype. 1/14 Luck always plays a role, and in a bigger market with technological path dependencies, it often plays an even bigger role.

This is true, but it's less important than it seems. 2/14

NFTs are not just about dank memes and ugly JPEGs. They can have real utility.

Here are 11 projects worth exploring. 1/13 lu.ma/crypto / @LumaHQ lets you use NFTs as "tickets" to attend online events.

2/13

2010s: Uber for X
2020: GitHub for X

The next decade will do to COGNITIVE tasks what the previous decade did to PHYSICAL tasks.

This has implications for your career, income inequality, and social stability.

Let me explain. 1/19 Way back in the early 2010s, every second startup was pitching itself as "Uber for X." The idea was simple: take a group of disparate humans, aggregate them into an app with a nice UI, and deliver a delightful experience for customers looking to complete physical tasks. 2/19

Trick or treat?

Every new era of capitalism is dominated by a hierarchy that pretends it's not the previous one and initially seems invisible.

1/8 People were liberated from the farms and flocked to cities. They were free to work in a factory. 2/8

The future of cities is medieval
OR
What can CITIES learn from OFFICES

What am I talking about? Friday THREAD 1/ Students of international relations have been concerned with the return of the Middle Ages for a while. Political scientists have observed the relative decline in the power of nation-states and the growing importance of supernational military and trade organizations. 2/

THREAD

@a16z / @pmarca's essay, IT'S TIME TO BUILD, signals a shift in the world of venture capital. VCs can no longer focus only on the world of bits.

This shift was identified and explained in my book (rethinking.re). Let's break it down.

1/11 In 2018, the venture capital industry invested $130.9 billion across 8948 U.S. venture deals. For the first time, investment eclipsed the high watermark set during the dot-com boom in 2000. But, as they say, this time it’s different.

2/11

Technology vs. Real Estate. Everything described and predicted in my book is now expedited by #COVID19.

Let's dive in with a series of selected quotes.

1/18 "A building’s location is becoming less important and insufficient to define and defend its value. Humans can work remotely and many choose to do so, at least some of the time."

2/18

What do WeWork, Karl Marx, the Prince of Wales, a goat, and fancy bathing suits have in common? A special Black Friday THREAD: 1/x In 1877, Benjamin Altman, the son of Jewish-German immigrants, decided to leave the Lower East Side and open a new departments store on the corner of 18th St and 6th Avenue. (Corner photo from @nypl) 2/x