A developer (in a team or a multi-team environment) can never know how long it takes to develop a feature a #NoEstimates thread 🧵 explaining why... There are many reasons why Estimates can never work (as input to reliable, and money/time sensitive decision making). But there's one that goes against the very basic beliefs we have in software development #NoEstimates

There are 3 critical logical fallacies that people make when they think about estimates. And they are quite easy to debunk too! A #NoEstimates Thread...🧵 The First: people think "better" estimates get you more predictability. If this were true, all transportation systems in the world would spend MILLIONS on estimators! Instead, what they do: measure, repeat.

Thanks to @DrAgilefant and friends, just got my hands on a thesis that shares some enlightening insights into how common and impactful estimation errors are #NoEstimates
I will be publishing more of what I read in this thread. "Outliers are so frequent that the noise drowns out the signal in the data"
In other words: even if you have data from "actuals", you don't really know if you will be late because the outliers are only visible too late and have a huge impact on delays
#noestimates