Alright, wading in on Syria sanctions. This, from the US, is very welcome. Doesn’t go far enough, but it’s a good start that should help with issues such as the critical lack of gas, and the urgent need to repair electricity and water infrastructure: home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel… The debate on Syria sanctions tends to be binary—remove or keep. More nuance is required. Syria is sanctioned from here to the end of forever, but the sanctions are different and were applied for different reasons. So what’s still relevant and what isn’t…?

Ahead of today’s Arab League meeting, states were briefing out the worst part of the regional plan for Syria as outlined in the Amman statement…a pilot refugee return scheme.

Let’s look at why this is worst-case scenario awful. ft.com/content/cab111… The conditions for return do not exist in Syria. The regime hasn't changed one thing about how their security sector and gulags work or their targeting of those they see as opponents (which is M's of people). Consistently 75%ish of refugees say this is why they left/can’t return.

The way to unlock the challenges to crossline assistance (among other challenges) into the NW in Syria is to first secure long-term access to the area cross-border from Turkey. Continuing to push one without the other in place is likely to have negative consequences, here's why: Firstly, to be totally clear, this absolutely is not an attempt to 'politicize' this issue. Rather, to outline a constructive and conflict-sensitive way forward that is based in reality--a reality that happens to contain some uncomfortable truths.

Relief to Syria in the wake of the terrible quakes will be complicated in both the NW and govt-held areas, for differing reasons. A few reflections: A lot of attention on the complexities of the highly-impacted NW. Firstly, infrastructure: Antakya airport and the road from Antakya to Bab al-Hawa are trashed, as is the road from Gaziantep to Antakya. This will be the most immediate challenge.

Devastating footage emerging from across southern Turkey and north-west Syria after an huge quake (7.8) hit in the early hours of the morning—felt across the region. The damage appears vast, the human toll likely to be equally high. The epicentre appears to be just outside the city of Gaztainep, toward Hatay and NW Syria. Already seeing footage of severe collapsed buildings as far away as Adana and Diyarbakir, suggesting the areas most affected will be severely affected.

Massacres in Syria. Thread.
Because there's no accessible online repository of the growing body of research on this subject, the following thread will consolidate the work being done to illuminate this awful truth about the conflict. (Major TW applies, obviously). One of many massacres in al-Tadamon in 2013, was covered earlier this year. Since the public pieces, residents of the area have shared that there were many massacres in the area at the time. More info, here: theguardian.com/world/2022/apr… and here: theguardian.com/world/video/20…

A lot of briefing and info about the potential for a siege in Kyiv. Syria offers many lessons on the brutality of siege, on preparedness for long term siege of an urban population centre, and on humanitarian negotiations for access from the same perpetrators as in Kyiv. Thread/ It is uncomfortable and unpleasant to talk about this and I don't wish to cause distress or undue alarm. Obviously, exhausting every available option to prevent a siege should be an absolute priority. Can't really be stressed enough.

Polls closed at 11pm last night in Syria's parliamentary elections. Votes will be counted today, though the results can already be predicted. I'll update this thread with thoughts and analysis as I go through the available information about the process for some wrap-up reports. Syrian humour normally covers in one meme what it takes analysts 10 pages to say. The TL:DR on the elections is this, which is doing the rounds on Syrian social.

"When they tell me to participate in the elections of the People's Assembly and I choose who I want to be elected..."

Public information on communicable disease monitoring in government-controlled areas of Syria is now 3.5 months out of date. This is where you find info on the number of serious respiratory and flu-like illness cases. Normally it's released 1-3 weeks after it's collected. With both a UNSC x-border resolution debate and Brussels IV Conference happening this week, it's worth remembering that the Ministry of Health and WHO joint system for data sharing on critical health info during a pandemic are currently not-functioning as they should be.

UK implementing more #COVID19 measures now. 14 days self-quarantine for symptomatic, everyone to stop unnecessary contact with others, nobody burden NHS without good reason. By the weekend, more measures will be in place. Vulnerable people to quarantine for 12 weeks soon. London the epicentre of the outbreak, Londoners need to pay additional attention––WAH if you can and limit social contact. Advise against pubs, clubs, restaurants, and all mass gatherings. From tomorrow, no public support for mass gatherings (medical or policing of events).

Idlib self-care: This thread is offered with 2 major caveats: it obviously only applies to those in the position of privilege of not being in Idlib, and I’m not an expert. Just offering ideas that work for me and may be a starting point in thinking about taking care of yourself. Working closely on something as gut-wrenchingly awful as Idlib can have an emotional, psychological, physical toll. It'll vary by individual, but it’s also a real thing and simply denying it because things are demonstrably worse for people in Idlib isn’t a great idea long term.

People new to Syria work, I really would recommend that you go back and read through articles, UNSC briefs, research reports, etc from 2011-2016. Spending a day or two understanding the pathway of sieges, aid denial, barrel bombing and more that got us to where we are is crucial. Remember in 2015 when people starved to death under siege in Madaya (which wasn't even recorded as being besieged) and weren't believed, years after alarms about sieges and aid denial were rung? There are stacks on stacks of war crimes layered over so much of today's Syria.

Ahead of Trump's speech, which will almost certainly announce the US SF raid and subsequent death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, here's a thread on what we think we know so far. Around 11pm last night, US SF launched a raid in Barisha, in Syria's north-western Idlib province, just a few kilometres from the Turkish-Syrian border. More on the location here:

https://twitter.com/ryanmofarrell/status/1188307238928244736

Because housing, land and property will be THE story of Syria's future, I've been researching it in detail for quite a while. Including the enormous scale of property demolitions described in this @Guardian article. A thread: theguardian.com/world/2019/jun… Many areas of Syria are being demolished at an extraordinary speed and for very specific ends. All the bluster about Law 10 is a distraction from the fact that very few properties will even need to have this applied as they will be destroyed long before it is needed.