How much hotter could it get?
While the US Midwest and western Europe are experiencing scorching heatwaves, we have a paper on possible worst-case heatwaves in exactly those regions being published today in Nature Communications 🧵nature.com/articles/s4146… The record-shattering 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest (peaking at 49.6°C in Lytton, BC) raised the question, whether heat extremes intensify faster than projected, and whether current generations of global models are unable to even reproduce such events.

Record-shattering rainfall extreme in Florida:
574mm (22.59in) in 7 hours is about 4 times the total rainfall that caused 2021 floods in northwestern Germany.

https://twitter.com/douglasthron777/status/1646349607939571712

Seemingly a "black swan event" that is simply off the chart, its occurrence reveals the limitations of focusing on relatively short observational records to estimate worst-case events.

https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1646338558943191041?s=20

New @IPCC_CH Synthesis Report released
One of the most impressive figures relates to the fairness across generations. The generation of my kids born in 2010s will face substantially more heatwaves, heavy rainfall and droughts during an average lifetime than their grandparents. @IPCC_CH With every additional increment of global warming the intensity and frequency of heatwaves, heavy precipitation events, and droughts in many regions will continue to increase.

1\n Two weeks after publication of @IPCC_ch #AR6 key conclusions have been widely covered. But some background material is hidden within thousands of pages e.g. in chapter 4. This includes the assessed future changes in global surface temperature for different emissions scenarios 2\n For the first time, chapter 4 combined model projections with observational constraints based on past warming, as well as assessed ranges of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR). Accounting for multiple lines of evidence

Der Klimawandel hat die Wahrscheinlichkeit und Intensität von Starkregen erhöht, die zum Hochwasser in Deutschland und BeNeLux geführt haben, zeigt unsere @wxrisk Attributionsstudie geleitet von @DWD_klima worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-rainfall… Auch in Zukunft müssen wir mit weiteren Starkniederschlagsereignissen rechnen, welche bisherige Messrekorde deutlich übertreffen und Hochwasserschutz und Warnsysteme ans Klima der kommenden Jahrzehnte anpassen.

1/n Prepare for the unthinkable.
Our new @NatureClimate study with @Knutti_ETH and @ssippel87 shows that the coming decades will bring more record heat that literally shatters existing temperature records like in the Pacific NW nature.com/articles/s4155… 2/n Like in high jumping, where world records are old and only broken by centimeters – record heat should become rarer and margins smaller the longer we measure. Because of climate change, we observe the opposite –climate is currently behaving like an athlete on steroids.