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Eric Nuttall Profile picture
Eric Nuttall
@ericnuttall
Father of 3, husband, & energy investor. Proponent of the Canadian energy patch & occasional market commentator. https://t.co/WVA6oG8CCO
6 subscribers
May 9, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Is the f.e.a.r. of recessionary-induced demand destruction overblown? Is the weakness in oil from a collapse in the physical demand, or the financial demand for oil? Here is what the refiners are saying in their Q1 conference calls: BP: "China really is the main story where post the COVID lockdown we've seen strong demand on the retail side...the Chinese story from an industrial capacity perspective is still to play...it's why we are constructive on oil prices looking out through the rest of the year"
Mar 20, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
The antidote to fear is facts. While banking sector panic-induced crude liquidation may continue, leading to still lower oil prices, when the dust eventually settles, what do oil fundamentals and energy stock valuations look like? Some thoughts: The past year has been a struggle for oil bulls. The positive catalysts of a reopening China, US shale hyper-growth ending, and OPEC spare capacity exhaustion have been trumped by recessionary f.e.a.r.s and the largest SPR release in history. Price is now setting narrative.
Nov 14, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Oil trading down $3/bbl because OPEC forecasts oil demand to "only" grow by 2.2MM Bbl/d in 2023? Really?!? Why are so few asking the obvious question: where exactly are the incremental barrels going to come from??? A thread. The oil market has been undersupplied throughout the year, evidenced by falling inventories, despite recessionary fears, the largest SPR release in history, and China COVID-zero policies. An impressive feat!
Mar 21, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Back from a week on the beach with the kids and time for an oil macro update. Where do things stand now and where are we headed? First, our compass...global oil inventories continue to plummet and the "gap to normal levels" continues to widen = bullish. Last week the IEA released January OECD stocks: a massive counter seasonal drop with levels now at a 302MM Bbl deficit to the '15-'19 average and more importantly...a 51MM deficit to the Jan '10-'14 average...the time when oil last averaged $96WTI.
Jan 24, 2020 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
1) As the market freaks out over short-term demand destruction from the coronavirus (SARS dented demand by 0.26MM Bbl/d in '03) , I'm focusing on what will matter after the panic ends: US growth deceleration, peaking of global offshore production, and Canadian egress solutions: Image 2) 2020 will be the first year in several where US production growth does not fully satisfy global demand growth...this is an extremely important development. Why? #OOTT Image