On the one-year anniversary of the May 2025 India-Pakistan crisis, I write for @ForeignAffairs about why the next crisis is likely to be more dangerous than the last, and why Washington may struggle to contain it. A🧵... (1): foreignaffairs.com/india/why-next… For years, analysts worried most about a ground war scenario: an Indian "Cold Start" incursion across the border risking Pakistani tactical nuclear weapon use in response.

Now, escalation pathways are shifting away from deliberate use to the risk of inadvertent escalation. (2)

Thanks, @JJSchroden. I’ll discuss where negotiations in Afghanistan could go next, based on two agreements announced recently. I would echo @BRRubin’s points on COVID-19 and its impact, but still think examining these structural issues is helpful for the long term. #AFGPanel 1/11 A close comparison of the US-Taliban deal and US-Afghan joint statement is useful for identifying tensions among the three sides and likely future bumps in the road. I noted several key differences for @lawfareblog. #AFGPanel 2/11 lawfareblog.com/reading-betwee….