FIL: Je voulais expliquer nos prévisions pessimistes de logement au printemps dernier.  À l'époque, les temps étaient incertains et je sentais qu'un avertissement sur le risque de prix de l'immobilier était responsable 1/8 Rappelons que: 25% de nos effectifs bénéficiaient du soutien du revenu, nous avions 150 milliards de dollars de soutien de liquidité pour les prêteurs, les prêts hypothécaires étaient reportés dans des volumes énormes et les prix des logements étaient déjà elévés trop 2/8

THREAD: I've been taken to task for pessimistic housing forecasts last spring. At the time, I felt responsible to share what my colleagues were predicting. Times were uncertain and I felt that a warning about house prices was responsible. 1/6 Indeed, I don’t recall anyone predicting accurately what actually transpired. Recall that 25% of our workforce was on income support, we had activated $150B of liquidity for lenders, mortgages were being deferred in huge #s and house prices were already inflated. 2/6

My #tweetstorm to clarify a few things re @CMHC_ca’s posture. 1st, we expect prices to fall 9% on average if we have a prompt post-COVID recovery in Canada; our “moderate stress” case (worse than expected) results in -18%, both extrapolate from tentative @bankofcanada forecast. 12% of mortgages are in deferral; that could be 20% by Sept. Deferred mortgages are not in arrears since they are deferred with lender ok. That 20% is *at risk* of being in arrears 90 days after a required payment is missed.