An important aspect of how members of Congress think about their votes and future electoral prospects this year is that none of them actually know the contours of the districts they’ll be running in in 2022. All their districts are being redrawn before then. Idk how likely this is, but one way that Representatives could be retaliated against for their votes (on impeachment or otherwise) is that their state legislatures back home could draw them unpleasant districts (or draw them out of their districts altogether) #gerrymandering

Let's talk about polls and why they matter...

A THREAD

1/ There is plenty of anxiety about whether the polls will be "right" this year. It's because people care a lot about the outcome of the election and, notably, because of the larger than average polling errors in the upper Midwest in 2016...

2/

1) This turned into a THREAD: A notable theme of the 2020 Dem primary has been the degree to which some candidates misjudged how left Dem voters are. Harris, Booker, Warren, Buttigieg have all had to recalibrate away from their further left positions. I’m curious why... 2) So many candidates miscalculated. I’d guess it has something to do with learning the wrong lessons from the ‘16 election. Trump was actually seen by voters as less partisan than Clinton. Not more. It’s hard to make the case that Clinton lost chiefly bc she wasn’t left enough..

1/ Let me tell you a little story about the cluster**** that is going to play out over the coming month regarding North Carolina’s congressional maps… 2/ Yesterday a 3 judge panel ruled NC’s maps to be an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander, saying the maps should be redrawn in time for the 2018 MIDTERM ELECTION, which is 70 days away...