Gavin Hales Profile picture
Independent researcher & commentator on #policing, #crime & #criminaljustice. Senior Associate Fellow @the_police_fdn. Own views. DMs open.
10 Jul
I recently suggested the high rate of #stopsearch by the MPS (and population demographics) skews national disproportionality rate calculations. In this thread I'll post some numbers.



1/ THREAD
I thought it would be interesting to look at how London/the MPS compares to the rest of England and Wales combined.

2/
I've looked at the #stopsearch rate per 1,000 for black and white people only (to simplify the analysis) for 2018/19. I've removed BTP & City of London due to the impossibility/difficulty to calc rates.

I'm using the data posted at (8) on this page: ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/crime-justice-…

3/
Read 8 tweets
9 Jul
I've been thinking more about #stopsearch disproportionality. Thought I'd have a look at Lambeth, which is a borough with v high volumes of SS and lots of youth violence type issues.

1/ THREAD
The MPS #stopsearch dashboard shows SS during Jul19-Jun20 (total n=15,908) focused on males (93%), black subjects (61%), 15-24 yr olds (49%). Peak rate for 15-19 yr olds (309 per 1,000).

2/
Using the @LDN_data GLA 'Ethnic group projections (2016-based housing-led)' I looked at the estimated borough population structure, by gender, age and ethnicity, in 2019.
data.london.gov.uk/download/ethni…

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Read 14 tweets
7 Jul
Perhaps some context to complaints re #stopsearch in London: there has been a massive increase in volumes over the last 2yrs.

The result: falling arrest (and positive outcome) rates, down from 18.2% (30.7%) in Jul 18 to 9.1% (19.8%) in May 20. met.police.uk/sd/stats-and-d…

1/ THREAD
There is an inverse relationship between volumes and arrest/positive outcome rates. As volumes of #stopsearch increase, numbers of 'false positives' increase faster = more potential for complaints (all else being equal) and more risks to legitimacy.

2/
A key way the reduction in #stopsearch in London was achieved after 2011 was through a focus on the strength of grounds (how 'reasonable' were they) and arrest rates. A 20% arrest rate target was introduced and SS fell until it was reached.

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Read 9 tweets
31 Jan
Right, I've been crunching the numbers to look at the relationship between #policeworkforce changes in police officer numbers and the likely allocation of the #20kuplift.

Strap yourselves in, it's very interesting and may get bumpy.

THREAD

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First to say that I've used the allocation of the first 6k of the 20kuplift, which uses the existing #fundingformula, to determine how many cops of the 20k each force may get. Details in the attachment to this written statement. parliament.uk/business/publi…

2/
I've then used the Mar 2019 #policeworkforce statistics to look at changes between 2010 and 2019.

NB: I am using the 31 Mar 2019 numbers as a proxy for the #20kuplift baseline b/c that's all we've got now. In reality the baseline nos will be different

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Read 11 tweets
20 Sep 19
I missed this GLA slide pack when it was published in July.

'A Public Health Approach to Serious Youth Violence: Supporting Evidence'

1/

data.london.gov.uk/dataset/a-publ…
Sigh. I found it pretty frustrating.

Lots of data confirming the association with a range of indicators of disadvantage.

OK, useful.

2/
What's missing?

Longitudinal analysis, qualitative insights and a narrative.

A basic question: why did serious youth violence get worse between 2012/13 and 2017/18?

Nothing.

3/
Read 7 tweets
3 May 19
I gave a brief (via Skype) presentation on #knifecrime yesterday to a meeting at @UAL - thought I'd post the slides here in case anyone is interested.

A brief overview of evidence on use/carrying, trends, and then a series of 7 hypotheses about why the increase.

A thread.

1/
First some headlines re motivation and risks for carrying & use. Main sources @iainbrennan's excellent paper academia.edu/37225623/_Pre-… and the v good recent @CollegeofPolice briefing by Abigail McNeill and @levinwheller college.police.uk/News/College-n… #knifecrime

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To illustrate the trend in recent years I opted first for health rather than crime data. NHS data taken from the spreadsheet published to accompany this @commonslibrary #knifecrime briefing published last Nov. researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefi…

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Read 18 tweets
5 Nov 18
Being back in S/SE London last week, esp the v diverse (and rel high crime) area I lived in 2010-17, reminded me of an observation I think is relevant to debates about disproportionality re #stopsearch: you just don't see many white teenagers out and about there.

1.
By contrast, loads of white younger (eg pre/primary age) children, including in local schools which are all (though varyingly) v racially mixed.

So where are the white teens? I've some thoughts/hypotheses, and hope to explore whether empirical evidence bears them out.

2.
First, to say that although the area is racially and economically quite mixed - lots of local authority owned terraced housing mixed in with owner occupiers/private renters; large post-war estates, some rebuilt - my impression is that it's also quite socially segregated.

3.
Read 18 tweets
20 Sep 18
1. I've had a chance to read the new @StopWatchUK report by @PatrickWillia17 on the MPS #gangsmatrix. Some early reflections here, hope to write something more considered in due course.

Key Q for me: if the matrix was scrapped tomorrow, what would actually change?

[Thread]
2. I'll start by saying I think it is appropriate for police and other agencies to have a particular focus on gang/group violence, as long as it is only one lens through which violence is understood and addressed.
3. Key point for me: the significance of gang/group dynamics as risk mulitipliers, eg collective responsibility and revenge. Maybe the ‘gang’ label detracts from what are broader phenomena (especially in respect of 'associates')? #gangsmatrix
Read 33 tweets
27 Oct 17
Arrests down, blame the police?

Thread. 1/
According to the Crime Survey for England and Wales crime is down a lot; police recorded crime has been rising in recent years.

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We know police recorded is up partly due to more reported crimes being recorded by forces, esp less serious

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Read 14 tweets