I had a look at #schoolexclusions data the other day, and since then received a breakdown with sex and FSM eligibility as well as ethnicity - this time for all state schools (not just secondary) across 4 years.

In this thread I'll present various ways of looking at the data. 🧵 The main question I'll be examining is how rates of exclusion compare between white and black pupils. As a rule, Asian pupils are excluded less often.

The Home Office published their quarterly update of crime outcomes data today, and I've been taking my periodic look at rape charge rates.

Here, first, we see that the charge rate for rapes recorded in 2020/21 has now reached 4.0% and continues to rise. #crimestats

1/ 🧵 I can provide this kind of analysis because I've been collating an archive of the quarterly updates over the last 2 yrs, something I'm not aware anyone else has done.

Here's a summary of the data.

2/

A couple of charts on what has happened to police officer numbers and the overall #policeworkforce.

First, the % change in police officers, counted on a headcount basis, between March 2010 and March 2023 (excl BTP).

Winners and losers.

1/🧵 Second, the % change to the overall police workforce, again on a headcount basis, between March 2010 and March 2022 (the 2023 figures haven't yet been published).

Many more losers than winners.

2/

Had a quick look at MTIP 'strip searches' of children by the Met. These are More Thorough searches involving exposure of Intimate Parts, done under stop and search powers. 🧵

I looked at the 2 years from Mar 21 to Feb 23.

1/ I've looked at the Met because they publish their data on stops and searches and (separately) the subset involving MTIP searches, broken down by month, age etc. I'll provide links below.

2/

There's a #policetwitter mindset that believes every untruth about or challenge to policing must be 'robustly' confronted. That can translate into expressions of the worst values in policing, whether present today or echoing from the past, esp from behind a cloak of anonymity.

https://twitter.com/DameLynneOwens/status/1567774079473618944

My feeling is that police leaders could do much more to highlight how *counterproductive* this can be.

"You're not helping. In fact you are being unhelpful. Please stop."

IOPC update policeconduct.gov.uk/news/update-2-… Includes the detail that the attempt to stop Mr Kaba's car followed "the activation of an automatic number plate recognition camera which indicated the vehicle was linked to a firearms incident in the previous days"

This isn't the first time I've seen this issue raised, and it's interesting that the Met's (relatively recently introduced) internal workforce ethnicity data has a (well used) Black British category - and also Black Asian (v few), but not Asian British.

https://twitter.com/gmhales/status/1501530469418033157?s=20&t=PZzBLDF9eZju_WCYXuvK3Q

https://twitter.com/vernalscott/status/1501823866745802755

I've heard from a number of officers that the lack of a Black British option in monitoring eg stop and search has caused issues with members of the public feeling their self-identity is not reflected in/respected by police systems.

I wasn't aware until yesterday that #policeworkforce data on police officers in E&W are now published with a detailed breakdown of their ethnicity (18+1 categories).

Here's the full breakdown as at Dec 2021, in numbers and percentages.

1/🧵 Here's Asian representation - this is the % of police officers in each force.

2/

Charting changing female representation among police officers in England and Wales from 2007 to 2021.

Up from 23% to 32% nationally. #IWD2022 #policeworkforce

1/ The same data indexed to 2007.

Derbyshire have made the biggest gains in female representation (up from 22% to 36%), CoLP the lowest (up from 20% to 24%).

2/

One striking finding of the London Rape Review 2021 is that the (joint) most common reason for victim withdrawal from police investigations was that the victim 'did not intend to report rape'.

london.gov.uk/sites/default/… The researchers note that victims who disclosed (they use the word 'reported', but I'm not sure that's accurate) rapes in response to DASH questions were 3x as likely to withdraw than victims who reported in other ways.

I've been thinking quite a bit recently about two things relating to this:

(1) Would it help if British policing explicitly acknowledged it's role in *creating* the unequal society it now polices, due to overt individual and institutionally racist practices in the past?

https://twitter.com/gmhales/status/1470087337849860103

(2) I feel like policing has had relatively little to say about doing policing *with not to* Black communities - which in many cases are more vulnerable/victimised. In the Met, the model of specialist units being sent in to do stop and search is arguably an example of doing to.

Some discussions in the press about how charge/summons rates vary by police force area.

Here I've prepared some charts to look at rape and other sexual offences, for the 3 years from 2018/19 to 2020/21 (inclusive).

First, rape charge rates.

1/ A very wide range of charge rates (as at July 2021: these data are periodically refreshed).

Durham are in a league of their own, with a 7.1% charge rate. Wilts, Kent, A&S and GMP all under 2%. Met Police on 2.3%. #crimestats

2/

I have a question about DASH forms, and wonder if someone can help?

If police respond to an allegation of rape, and the victim/complainant and suspect are in a domestic relationship, is a DASH assessment conducted?

1/ Why am I asking? Because in the context of understanding the police recording of rape, I'm trying to work out if it is possible to identify the % of rapes reported via DASH forms, secondary to a different primary allegation of domestic abuse/violence.

2/

Re. the concerns raised about the potential for a large rise in #stopsearch: it is of course quite possible that forces like the Met will choose not to do so.

1/

theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/j… I personally don't foresee a return to the days of #opblunt2 and the wholesale use of s60 #stopsearch powers, which I think were used in the late 00s well beyond the original intention of Parliament (in 2007 I raised that with a Met Commander when I was working there).

2/

"The policing minister has defended plans to ease restrictions on stop and search powers for police, saying there is no feasible alternative if knife crime is to be tackled" #stopsearch

1/ theguardian.com/law/2021/jul/2… Note the policy relates to s60 ('suspicionless') powers only. This is significant because many officers will tell you most stops done under s60 could be done under a suspicion-based power (eg s1 PACE), and therefore there often is a 'feasible alternative' to s60. @kitmalthouse

.@EssexBarrister I appreciated your contribution yesterday to the discussion on Sky. Wondered if I might offer a few pieces of the puzzle re disproportionality in terms of crime and policing?

1/ Nationally, '...among the broad ethnic groups, Black people were most likely to live in the 10% of neighbourhoods most deprived in relation to crime (27% of this group did so)’ ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-…

2/

Here's a question: do police officers get any training on the risks of logical fallacies (and/or statistics...)?

What am I on about? Bear with me...

[Short thread]

1/ I attended (virtually) a meeting the other day at which several attendees described their/their colleagues' experiences of being stopped and searched by police during lockdown. Most of the cases related to s23 drugs #stopsearch-es. A couple had received media coverage.

2/

Some focus today on an increase in s60 #stopsearch by the Met during lockdown, eg in this article by @sloumarsh. I'd like to suggest that's a bit of a red herring.

1/5 Thread

theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/j…. Here are the MPS #stopsearch monthly totals by reason for search/power, fr June 2018 to June 2020. Huge increase in totals over the period, driven by drugs stops (s23).

The s60 totals are in red at the bottom (Jan'20 1.2k, Feb 505, Mar 710, Apr 292, May 1.4k, Jun 678).

2/5

I recently suggested the high rate of #stopsearch by the MPS (and population demographics) skews national disproportionality rate calculations. In this thread I'll post some numbers.

https://twitter.com/gmhales/status/1280966282062565386?s=20

1/ THREAD I thought it would be interesting to look at how London/the MPS compares to the rest of England and Wales combined.

2/

I've been thinking more about #stopsearch disproportionality. Thought I'd have a look at Lambeth, which is a borough with v high volumes of SS and lots of youth violence type issues.

1/ THREAD The MPS #stopsearch dashboard shows SS during Jul19-Jun20 (total n=15,908) focused on males (93%), black subjects (61%), 15-24 yr olds (49%). Peak rate for 15-19 yr olds (309 per 1,000).

2/

Perhaps some context to complaints re #stopsearch in London: there has been a massive increase in volumes over the last 2yrs.

The result: falling arrest (and positive outcome) rates, down from 18.2% (30.7%) in Jul 18 to 9.1% (19.8%) in May 20. met.police.uk/sd/stats-and-d…

1/ THREAD

https://twitter.com/gmhales/status/1278412091922223105

There is an inverse relationship between volumes and arrest/positive outcome rates. As volumes of #stopsearch increase, numbers of 'false positives' increase faster = more potential for complaints (all else being equal) and more risks to legitimacy.

2/