I thought it would be interesting to look at how London/the MPS compares to the rest of England and Wales combined.
I've looked at the #stopsearch rate per 1,000 for black and white people only (to simplify the analysis) for 2018/19. I've removed BTP & City of London due to the impossibility/difficulty to calc rates.
There is an inverse relationship between volumes and arrest/positive outcome rates. As volumes of #stopsearch increase, numbers of 'false positives' increase faster = more potential for complaints (all else being equal) and more risks to legitimacy.
A key way the reduction in #stopsearch in London was achieved after 2011 was through a focus on the strength of grounds (how 'reasonable' were they) and arrest rates. A 20% arrest rate target was introduced and SS fell until it was reached.
Right, I've been crunching the numbers to look at the relationship between #policeworkforce changes in police officer numbers and the likely allocation of the #20kuplift.
Strap yourselves in, it's very interesting and may get bumpy.
First to say that I've used the allocation of the first 6k of the 20kuplift, which uses the existing #fundingformula, to determine how many cops of the 20k each force may get. Details in the attachment to this written statement. parliament.uk/business/publi…
I've then used the Mar 2019 #policeworkforce statistics to look at changes between 2010 and 2019.
NB: I am using the 31 Mar 2019 numbers as a proxy for the #20kuplift baseline b/c that's all we've got now. In reality the baseline nos will be different
Being back in S/SE London last week, esp the v diverse (and rel high crime) area I lived in 2010-17, reminded me of an observation I think is relevant to debates about disproportionality re #stopsearch: you just don't see many white teenagers out and about there.
By contrast, loads of white younger (eg pre/primary age) children, including in local schools which are all (though varyingly) v racially mixed.
So where are the white teens? I've some thoughts/hypotheses, and hope to explore whether empirical evidence bears them out.
First, to say that although the area is racially and economically quite mixed - lots of local authority owned terraced housing mixed in with owner occupiers/private renters; large post-war estates, some rebuilt - my impression is that it's also quite socially segregated.
Key Q for me: if the matrix was scrapped tomorrow, what would actually change?
2. I'll start by saying I think it is appropriate for police and other agencies to have a particular focus on gang/group violence, as long as it is only one lens through which violence is understood and addressed.
3. Key point for me: the significance of gang/group dynamics as risk mulitipliers, eg collective responsibility and revenge. Maybe the ‘gang’ label detracts from what are broader phenomena (especially in respect of 'associates')? #gangsmatrix