Director of the Economics Department of @Strategie_Gouv, Senior Fellow (on leave for public service) @Bruegel_org, Associate Professor @LeCnam
Nov 9, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
The @EU_Commission has finally published its proposal for a reformed European fiscal framework today: economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2… 1/N@EU_Commission At first sight, it contains many improvements: focus on medium-term debt sustainability (and DSAs), end of unrealistic (& never applied) 1/20th debt rule, no role anymore for unobservable & mis-measured structural deficit, focus on expenditures as an operational target, 2/N
Jul 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In the end, the @ecb's TPI is not far from what we proposed in terms of governance (ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/…). But the ECB kept more discretion on the evaluation of the debt sustainability, instead of delegating it fully to the Commission/Council as in our proposal. 1/2
@ecb I would have been more confortable with less discretion from the ECB as it is not its role to do that. It will be seen as political and will draw criticism from both sides. It would have been desirable to link it only to the Commission's assessment and not other institutions' 2/2
Aug 27, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Let's wait for details but good move by the Fed imho. With @mariademertzis & @jan_mazza we advocated for a change towards Average Inflation Targeting for the @ecb in 2018 (bruegel.org/2018/11/a-mone…) I always thought ECB would not move 1st but now let's hope it will follow the Fed
The Fed "seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2% over time (...) following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2%, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for some time." (federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…)
May 27, 2020 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Main elements of EU Recovery Plan:
- €1100bn for 2021-27 MFF
- €750bn for #NextGen recovery instrument ie 560bn for the Recovery and Resilience Facility (ex. BICC it seems) + 55bn for ReactEU (top-up to cohesion funds) + 31bn for Solvency Support Instrument (equity fund) 1/n
In addition, the communication (ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…) mentions a doubling of InvestEU (including for strategic invt), 9.4bn for EU4Health, 40bn for the JTF, but not totally clear what is in the MFF and what is in the NextGen recovery instrument (most probably from MFF) 2/n
May 22, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Here is a thread on my paper (written for @EP_Economics and published earlier this week) on the ECB’s actions since the start of the COVID-19 crisis (bruegel.org/2020/05/the-eu…). The main question of the EP was simply to know if the ECB was acting within its mandate 1/n
The paper starts by a quick discussion on the outlook for inflation. I agree with the consensus that accelerating inflation is not a threat in the short to medium-term (ie the ECB's policy horizon) as the euro area will experience its deepest recession ever recorded in 2020 2/n
Apr 23, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
On #EUCO, after 6 years in Brussels I have learned one thing: in @EU_Commission speak to "mobilise" or "trigger" €XXXbn investment means that a tiny bit of EU money (wherever it comes from) will be used as a guarantee for the EIB to be able to "crowd-in private investment". 1/n
It can be called JunckerPlan bruegel.org/2015/06/juncke…, GreenDeal bruegel.org/2020/01/a-tril…, InvestEU or whatever. I have always been quite skeptic about effect in normal times, but I'm pretty sure it won't work in the midst of a recession or in the early phase of a recovery 2/n
Jul 2, 2019 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
As Lagarde's name is mentioned for the ECB's presidency, and given that she is not a monetary expert or has no CB experience, it is interesting to know what she thinks/knows about monetary policy. So far I have only found the following speech from 2013: kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympo…
What is in this speech reflects mainstream (IMF) views on monetary policy: unconventional tools have been very useful, even if they could have some financial stability side effects in the long run
Jun 17, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
More details on the #eurogroup agreement on ESM reform have been published on Saturday June 15 with: 1) a draft of the revised treaty (consilium.europa.eu/media/39772/re…) and 2) the annex detailing the eligibility criteria to the precautionary credit lines (consilium.europa.eu/media/39771/es…) 1/n
Comparing the annex to the criteria agreed in December (consilium.europa.eu/media/37267/es…) it appears that not much was changed, the 5 quantitative and qualitative ex-ante criteria are the same, while previous criteria that were not mentioned in December came back 2/n
