Ryan Anderson Profile picture
Constantly learning. Trying to create cool things. Running less than I should. 04011 - 78412 - 30269 - 30332 - 30308 - 90024 - 30030 - 10016 - 30312 - 30307
Oct 18 14 tweets 4 min read
TGIF. Another 265,000 voters joined the party yesterday, and Georgia is up to 897,260 total votes so far in the 2024 election.

That's 27% fewer than the same point in 2020, and 54% more than the same point in 2022.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com A lot of chatter is starting around who is voting, and what that means for the final result. It's very early in the cycle to make strong projections, but we can at least look at what patterns exist so far.
Oct 25, 2022 10 tweets 2 min read
986,597 people have voted so far in Georgia's 2022 elections. Today's thread is an explainer of how folks can use those numbers to make whatever point they want.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com You'll see a lot of people trying to tell you what these vote totals mean, usually in a way that lines up with what they want to be true.

Here are a few examples of how you can play with that.
Oct 23, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
It's Sunday in Georgia, and over 816,000 people have voted in the 2022 election so far.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com The headline numbers for 2018 behavior are that 67% of current voters also voted early in 2018, 17% voted on election day, and 16% didn't vote.

In other words, over 134,000 voter for this election didn't vote in 2018. But how does that compare to 2020 and 2021?
Oct 21, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
A little earlier file update tonight! We're up to 573,598 total votes, with ~519k in-person and ~54k by mail.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com This is a lot of votes, yes. But also, articles like this one are way off. And if the SoS office is giving people this impression, rather than journalists just getting it way wrong, I hope they stop.

abcnews.go.com/Politics/georg…
Oct 20, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
The lettuce wins!!! Socialism is randomly picking Britons to be PM until everyone is guaranteed £115k/year

Oct 19, 2022 6 tweets 2 min read
Ok, rested and caffeinated. Let's take a quick peak at early vote numbers so far.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com First, thanks to all you weirdos checking out the site. Hopefully the new AWS backend is working and it won't freeze up like it did at a couple points last year.
Oct 18, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
File processing... 123,834 people voted early today across Georgia. That's nearly 53,000 more than in 2018.

I'm working on a couple new views for how this compares to other elections, so keep an eye out for that this week.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
Feb 12, 2021 10 tweets 2 min read
The pandemic has been a wave of ups and downs for everyone, but jeez this GoFundMe op-ed broke me in a way very few things have.

Here are just a few quotes pulled from it.

usatoday.com/story/opinion/… " Since March, an American has started a COVID-related fundraiser on GoFundMe every two minutes."
Jan 6, 2021 7 tweets 1 min read
Thanks to my buddy running around Cherokee County I’ve got a few precinct-specific results for you. Woodstock
Perdue - 1,088 (69%)
Ossoff - 497 (31%)

Loeffler - 1,071 (68%)
Warnock - 513 (32%)

Was 66.3%/33.7% to Trump in a 2-party comparison on 11/3 with 959 total votes. Slight over-performance on sig more votes. Given the low early vote numbers, Rs would hope for more.
Jan 5, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
It's our last daily update before we start getting actual results and there have been 3,093,375 votes recorded. That's an increase of 51,679 over yesterday, with ballots coming from 153 of 159 counties.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com This isn't all of the early votes as we'll still have some received today both via the mail and drop boxes. Plus there may be some more ballots that have been received but not processed yet. So we can probably expect another 50-70k to get added during the counting.
Jan 3, 2021 19 tweets 4 min read
We've made it through the full early voting period, with just a few more days of mail votes to count. 3,032,066 votes have been cast so far, and today we'll try to read some tea leaves.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com As we go through the rest of this it's important to remember that the Election Day margins for the 3 major races in GA were:

Trump +217,250
Perdue +215,208
R's in the Special +200,108

That's what came from almost 1M Election Day voters.
Dec 31, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
We added almost 250,000 votes yesterday, bringing total turnout to 2,812,994.

Black voters continue to make up over 31% of total voters and 37.6% of voters who didn't vote in November.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com Turnout and rates by 2020 primary party ballot.

D: 914,202 - 74.0% turnout
R: 651,935 - 61.2% turnout

Then another 1,246,857 folks who either voted on a non-partisan ballot or didn't vote in the primary.
Dec 30, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read
Yesterday saw 228,855 votes recorded in the runoff elections, with in-person voting actually surpassing same day voting from the November cycle.

2,566,332 total people have voted.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com 91,165 of those voters didn't vote in the November election, a percentage that just keeps growing and is now at 3.6%. There are more voters who didn't vote in November so far than there are voters who voted on Election Day (78,804, 3.1% of the total).
Dec 29, 2020 5 tweets 3 min read
Big day of voting yesterday brings us up to 2,337,477 total votes in the January runoffs. Lots of other folks have written some good stuff this morning so today's thread is a series of links.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com Here's @Nate_Cohn to start us off with daily breakdowns by race. Takeaway: only one single day of early voting saw Black voters with a lower share of the electorate than the same day in November.

Dec 28, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
Hope everyone had a good holidays, especially the 36,525 folks who voted in-person over the last 4 days.

We're up to 2,126,254 total votes cast in the runoff with both voting methods about 25% behind the general election's pace.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com The top-6 congressional districts for turnout, compared to their early vote totals in the 2020 general, are all of the Democratic-held seats now.

GA-14, where Trump will be coming next Monday, is dead last by a lot.
Dec 24, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
New day, new GV numbers. We've officially cracked 2 million early voters now, with 2,062,902 votes cast. The daily pace continues to slow a bit, with IP voting down to just 1% ahead of 2020 general pace.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com I think the big question now is where does early voting come in, and how does that compare to the general. With a few more days of early in-person voting + ~500k mail applications outstanding It seems like 3 million is likely and 3.5 million isn't.
Dec 23, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
We're up to 1,884,692 votes cast in the Georgia runoffs. After tonight's update we'll probably hit 50% of the early vote turnout for the 2020 general, and then it's the holidays and numbers will slow significantly.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com Mail votes increased by 58,111 since yesterday, bringing the total mail vote within 19% of the general's at this point.

In-person votes grew up 147,957 and remain about 3% ahead of pace. Days are coming in below 2020 general pace regularly basis now, so expect this to drop.
Dec 22, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
1,678,624 people have voted in the Senate runoff elections in Georgia. 621,098 by mail and just over 1 million in-person.

Overall, vote totals are within 7% of this point in the general election.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com In-person voting was 154,628 yesterday, marking the 5th straight day of in-person voting lower than during the general. Given that we'll have effectively 0 votes from Thursday-Sunday this week it'll be telling to see where today and tomorrow end up.
Dec 19, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read
Ok, as promised I dug into the numbers a little more. Particularly around how people voted in the 2020 primary. There are better ways to estimate overall partisanship, but I've stuck with this for now. First, I want to let folks revisit the breakdown of D and R primary voters who have voted so far, vs the breakdown through the first week of early voting in the general.

Dem "lead" is 154k vs 181k in the general on lower overall turnout. That's about D +16% vs D +17.4%.
Dec 18, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read
Over 1,123,000 people have cast a vote in the Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Over 30,000 of them did not vote in the general election in November.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com Let's start with some demographic breakdowns. The electorate so far is much more racially diverse than we'd expect at this point, but closer to our expectations from an age perspective.

As mentioned previously, young voters tend to vote later: georgiavotes.substack.com/p/1026-who-vot…
Dec 14, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read
Welcome to the first day of early voting in Georgia's runoff election! The data is going to get a lot fuller and more interesting starting tomorrow, but today we can see where we ended up during the mail-only voting period.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com Applications are up to 1.22M, within 7% of where we were for the 2020 general when in-person voting started even with much less time for people to get their applications in.