Constantly learning. Trying to create cool things. Running less than I should. 04011 - 78412 - 30269 - 30332 - 30308 - 90024 - 30030 - 10016 - 30312 - 30307
Oct 25, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
986,597 people have voted so far in Georgia's 2022 elections. Today's thread is an explainer of how folks can use those numbers to make whatever point they want.
georgiavotes.com
You'll see a lot of people trying to tell you what these vote totals mean, usually in a way that lines up with what they want to be true.
Here are a few examples of how you can play with that.
Oct 23, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It's Sunday in Georgia, and over 816,000 people have voted in the 2022 election so far.
georgiavotes.com
The headline numbers for 2018 behavior are that 67% of current voters also voted early in 2018, 17% voted on election day, and 16% didn't vote.
In other words, over 134,000 voter for this election didn't vote in 2018. But how does that compare to 2020 and 2021?
Oct 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A little earlier file update tonight! We're up to 573,598 total votes, with ~519k in-person and ~54k by mail.
georgiavotes.com
This is a lot of votes, yes. But also, articles like this one are way off. And if the SoS office is giving people this impression, rather than journalists just getting it way wrong, I hope they stop.
georgiavotes.com
First, thanks to all you weirdos checking out the site. Hopefully the new AWS backend is working and it won't freeze up like it did at a couple points last year.
Oct 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
File processing...
123,834 people voted early today across Georgia. That's nearly 53,000 more than in 2018.
I'm working on a couple new views for how this compares to other elections, so keep an eye out for that this week.
The pandemic has been a wave of ups and downs for everyone, but jeez this GoFundMe op-ed broke me in a way very few things have.
Here are just a few quotes pulled from it.
usatoday.com/story/opinion/…
" Since March, an American has started a COVID-related fundraiser on GoFundMe every two minutes."
Jan 6, 2021 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Thanks to my buddy running around Cherokee County I’ve got a few precinct-specific results for you.
Woodstock
Perdue - 1,088 (69%)
Ossoff - 497 (31%)
Loeffler - 1,071 (68%)
Warnock - 513 (32%)
Was 66.3%/33.7% to Trump in a 2-party comparison on 11/3 with 959 total votes. Slight over-performance on sig more votes. Given the low early vote numbers, Rs would hope for more.
Jan 5, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
It's our last daily update before we start getting actual results and there have been 3,093,375 votes recorded. That's an increase of 51,679 over yesterday, with ballots coming from 153 of 159 counties.
georgiavotes.com
This isn't all of the early votes as we'll still have some received today both via the mail and drop boxes. Plus there may be some more ballots that have been received but not processed yet. So we can probably expect another 50-70k to get added during the counting.
Jan 3, 2021 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
We've made it through the full early voting period, with just a few more days of mail votes to count. 3,032,066 votes have been cast so far, and today we'll try to read some tea leaves.
georgiavotes.com
91,165 of those voters didn't vote in the November election, a percentage that just keeps growing and is now at 3.6%. There are more voters who didn't vote in November so far than there are voters who voted on Election Day (78,804, 3.1% of the total).
Dec 29, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Big day of voting yesterday brings us up to 2,337,477 total votes in the January runoffs. Lots of other folks have written some good stuff this morning so today's thread is a series of links.
georgiavotes.com
Here's @Nate_Cohn to start us off with daily breakdowns by race. Takeaway: only one single day of early voting saw Black voters with a lower share of the electorate than the same day in November.
georgiavotes.com
The top-6 congressional districts for turnout, compared to their early vote totals in the 2020 general, are all of the Democratic-held seats now.
GA-14, where Trump will be coming next Monday, is dead last by a lot.
Dec 24, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
New day, new GV numbers. We've officially cracked 2 million early voters now, with 2,062,902 votes cast. The daily pace continues to slow a bit, with IP voting down to just 1% ahead of 2020 general pace.
georgiavotes.com
I think the big question now is where does early voting come in, and how does that compare to the general. With a few more days of early in-person voting + ~500k mail applications outstanding It seems like 3 million is likely and 3.5 million isn't.
Dec 23, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
We're up to 1,884,692 votes cast in the Georgia runoffs. After tonight's update we'll probably hit 50% of the early vote turnout for the 2020 general, and then it's the holidays and numbers will slow significantly.
georgiavotes.com
Mail votes increased by 58,111 since yesterday, bringing the total mail vote within 19% of the general's at this point.
In-person votes grew up 147,957 and remain about 3% ahead of pace. Days are coming in below 2020 general pace regularly basis now, so expect this to drop.
Dec 22, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1,678,624 people have voted in the Senate runoff elections in Georgia. 621,098 by mail and just over 1 million in-person.
Overall, vote totals are within 7% of this point in the general election.
georgiavotes.com
In-person voting was 154,628 yesterday, marking the 5th straight day of in-person voting lower than during the general. Given that we'll have effectively 0 votes from Thursday-Sunday this week it'll be telling to see where today and tomorrow end up.
Dec 19, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Ok, as promised I dug into the numbers a little more. Particularly around how people voted in the 2020 primary. There are better ways to estimate overall partisanship, but I've stuck with this for now.
First, I want to let folks revisit the breakdown of D and R primary voters who have voted so far, vs the breakdown through the first week of early voting in the general.
Dem "lead" is 154k vs 181k in the general on lower overall turnout. That's about D +16% vs D +17.4%.
Dec 18, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Over 1,123,000 people have cast a vote in the Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Over 30,000 of them did not vote in the general election in November.
georgiavotes.com
Let's start with some demographic breakdowns. The electorate so far is much more racially diverse than we'd expect at this point, but closer to our expectations from an age perspective.
Welcome to the first day of early voting in Georgia's runoff election! The data is going to get a lot fuller and more interesting starting tomorrow, but today we can see where we ended up during the mail-only voting period.
georgiavotes.com
Applications are up to 1.22M, within 7% of where we were for the 2020 general when in-person voting started even with much less time for people to get their applications in.
Dec 11, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Hooo baby. 46,819 votes recorded yesterday gets us up to 200,995 total votes cast in the runoff elections so far.
And next week we get to start seeing what the early in-person numbers look like too.
georgiavotes.com
Now, this is a dangerous game to play but I've started looking at some numbers based on the # of applications in so far, and the results from the 2020 general election in each county for mail votes.
