Ich habe meinen Tweet zu meiner Juli-Kolumne für das @handelsblatt erweitert. Heute findet der zweite Wahlgang der Parlamentswahlen in Frankreich statt - und das Fundament der bundesrepublikanischen Außenpolitik ist porös wie nie zuvor. handelsblatt.com/100050136.html…

https://twitter.com/jana_puglierin/status/1806638322485207411

Selbst wenn es heute nicht zu einer absoluten Mehrheit für Le Pens RN kommt, hängt die realistische Möglichkeit ihres Wahlsiegs 2027 wie ein Damoklesschwert über Frankreich. Was Trump für die NATO ist, ist Le Pen für die EU.

On the way back to Berlin, I try to put some thoughts on #MSC2024 into a thread. Each attendee had their own unique experience of the conference, and the large number of parallel events means that it is only ever possible to experience a small section of the overall program. 1 1) Compared to last year, the general mood was much more somber. The messages emanating from the main stage differed from those in the corridors and in one-on-one conversations. That was especially obvious with regard to the transatlantic alliance, 🇪🇺's ability to act and 🇺🇦. 2

An die, denen es bei dem Besuch der heutigen Schwarzer/Wagenknecht Demo tatsächlich um Frieden geht, einige Fragen: Welche Anzeichen gibt es, dass RUS an ernsthaften Verhandlungen Interesse hat? Was sind ihre Forderungen an Putin, was muss Russland tun für einen Waffentsillstand? Wie bekommt man RUS dazu, diese Zugeständnisse zu machen, ohne militärischen Druck? Wenn Sie ein Ende der Waffenlieferungen fordern, haben Sie keine Sorge, dass Putin das zum Anlass nimmt, sich eine wehrlose Ukraine einfach einzuverleiben?

Anders Adlercreutz and
Atte Harjanne, two members of the Finnish parliament and its defence committee, just made the case for a European Leopard 2 initiative. atteharjanne.fi/2022/12/27/ukr… 1 „A joint European effort would have the potential to provide a significant boost to Ukraine's ground combat capability and perhaps decisively help Ukraine maintain the momentum it has gained in the war.“ (DeepL) 2

Since yesterday at a transatlantic defence forum near Prague. Many participants are former and current government officials, former and active NATO officials, almost all from CEE, Baltic’s, UK and US. Some observations from outside the Berlin bubble. Short🧵1/5 Everyone here is convinced that Ukraine is fighting not only for itself, but for all Europeans: "Their fight is our fight". Many here from Central and Eastern Europe feel that they will be next if Putin is not stopped.2

Für die @NZZ habe ich über die #Zeitenwende geschrieben. 7 Wochen später scheint es, als habe die Bundesregierung Angst vor der eigenen Hellsichtigkeit bekommen. Das Momentum der (meiner Meinung nach hervorragenden) Zeitenwende-Rede verblasst. Ein 🧵👇 nzz.ch/meinung/deutsc… Die angekündigte Zäsur für die deutsche Aussenpolitik fällt zögerlich aus. Es scheint, als sei die 🚦 vor allem darum bemüht, sich und ihrer Wählerschaft so wenig Zäsur wie möglich zuzumuten. D folgt dem europäischen Geleitzug; und zwar oft erst dann, wenn nicht mehr anders geht.

When looking at our latest data poll @markhleonard and I thought the results for Germany were really striking. There is no danger of Germany leaving the EU or of a Eurosceptic party winning the chancellery in this year’s parliamentary election. But we are worried. A 🧵 German political elites should be aware that the support for the 🇪🇺 project is dwindling and that they cannot take it for granted. More than 15 months after the coronavirus crisis hit, many Germans have started asking themselves if they would be better off bowling alone.

Today is a big day for me. Since the beginning of April, we at @ECFRBerlin have been working on a new project. Re:shape Global Europe seeks to develop new strategies for Europeans to understand and engage with the changing international order. Today we launch first results. A🧵 In a data-based study, we wanted to find out how Europeans see themselves and their role in the world. We did an opinion poll in 12 EU countries which, collectively, comprise more than 350 million European citizens and account for more than 80 per cent of the EU’s GDP.

CDU candidate for chancellor @ArminLaschet gives a keynote speech at @KASonline on foreign policy today. He begins by identifying an international epochal change: rise of China, new technologies, disregard for international law and populist movements, polypandemic, climate change .@ArminLaschet says we must not only react to crises, but act in a forward-looking manner. Proposes a National Security Council to position Germany more strategically. This is the first time the proposal has come from someone who might have the power to implement it. @ischinger