CIO @arca | Former COO of Harvest Exchange | Former Lehman, Merrill, Citadel | Huge Cleveland Sports Fan
11 added to My Authors
Aug 12 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
IMO, digital assets decoupled from macro 2 months ago but no one realized it because two very idiosyncratic events happened to occur at the exact same time.
Very quick thread:
1) From Nov 2021 to May 2022, it was all one trade.
Inflation expectations were higher than expected, the FOMC responded late but aggressively, and everything moved together (rates, equities, commodities, DXY, digital assets).
Jun 22 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Wait til yield farmers & stETH holders learn about bonds:
$MSTR, $COIN & $GLXY bonds now yielding more than anything in #DeFi:
1) MSTR: 0% converts due '27 @ $47 = 17% yield + very OTM call option attached
MSTR has $2.4 bn of debt vs $2.6 bn worth of BTC on their balance sheet
2) The most egregious: $GLXY 3% converts due '26 @ 68 = 12.75% yield + OTM Call option
GLXY has $500mm of debt versus $845mm of cash and $2.2 bn of digital assets on their balance sheet
Equity ($1.7 bn) trades well below book value (~$3 bn) and debt is covered 6x by assets!
Jun 21 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A historically bad week for digital assets, and the rest of global markets, led to me spinning up 11 random thoughts about this bear market
3) #DeFi is being held back by lack of adoption of stablecoins, not DeFi itself
4) USDC = USDT; BlockFi = Celsius; Grayscale = Lido - Stop pretending they are different
Apr 19 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Three reasons why we believe $ATOM is one of the most undervalued tokens in the market
a thread 👇 courtesy of @Bodhi_Pinkner
Reason #1: ATOM is undervalued relative to itself
The IBC ecosystem is exhibiting over 68mm monthly transactions throughout the $74bn of protocols built on it. Yet, $ATOM and the Cosmos Hub, the ecosystem’s nuclei, are worth only $7bn
Feb 27 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Strange price action today. Digital asset prices didn't react at all to Russian bank sanctions overnight until FX markets opened this afternoon, leading to x-asset quant/macro guys selling everything.
Liquid crypto markets were open all weekend, but "tail wagging the dog" here
Most have no idea (including me) and are jumping on the narrative that they want to play out.
If you’re short / in cash - your stance is “sell everything it’s all going lower”.
If you’re long - your stance is "money has to go somewhere --> likely into the US, gold, & $BTC"
Feb 24 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Arca has posted a governance proposal to add much-needed utility to $ANC. Anchor, Terra, & UST are some of the fastest-growing protocols, but ANC has underperformed the broader sector. ANC lacks utility and is heavily incentivizing $Luna rather than $ANC
2/ ANC’s TVL has increased to $11.3Bn since inception less than a year ago while its token price has fallen 16%. MeanwhileTerra (Luna) has increased by 233%. (ANC underperformed by 249%)
Feb 15 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
The easiest part of investing is finding a good idea.
The hardest part of investing is finding the best pure play way to express that idea
A short thread on a few ideas and how we're expressing them 👇
(Hint: $BTC, $ATOM, $RON, $CHZ, $LUNA, $IMX)
Pure play investing allows you to simplify a view & take other factors out of the equation.
e.g. Cruises, airlines & hotels were pure plays on increased travel. Regional bank stocks are pure plays on rising rates. Paul Tudor Jones expressed pure play ways to bet on inflation.
Feb 3 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
1) A lot of folks asking "wen bottom"... that's obviously impossible to answer. But you can look for signs that narratives are shifting the other way even when consensus is all one way... for example...
(a thread 👇)
2) Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for DeFi / Layer 1s this week. Yet, all of the applications survived the 3rd biggest stress test we've had in the last 2 years (May 2021 & March 2020 being the others).
Wrote a few pieces recently about controversial / misunderstood topics ... would love to hear feedback
see below 👇
1) Why FDV is a flawed and oft-misinterpreted metric ar.ca/blog/fully-dil…2) Using $RON as a case study for why the "sellside" (OTC dealers/exchanges) aren't doing enough to educate their customers on new opportunities ar.ca/blog/debunking…
Jan 7 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Here we go again -- time to debunk macro theses regarding the Fed, rate hikes and their likely impact on digital assets and equities.
Three charts showing why the Fed rate hike cycle is likely not bearish for digital assets anytime soon... history lesson 👇
1) The last time hawkish Fed statements caused a market meltdown was 4Q '18; $SPY -7% in Oct & -9% in Dec. This was AFTER 2 years of rate hikes from 2016-2018 (equities rallied during the hike period). The -23% taper tantrum led to the Fed lowering rates again, & stocks rallied.
Dec 30, 2021 • 31 tweets • 8 min read
Arca has been very involved in the $AXS Ecosystem.
Recently, KPIs (Revenues, DAUs, overall activity) have slipped, largely due to very fixable problems related to $SLP. With $RON pricing soon, we believe Axie now has many levers to pull to right the ship.
A thread 👇
2/ The problem:
The net issuance of $SLP since the announcement of Katana on 11/3 (and inception of $RON incentivized pools) has been a detriment to the price of SLP.
10.9 bn net SLP minted since 11/3, which is 54% of total SLP mkt cap, with avg mint/burn ratio of 4.75
Dec 16, 2021 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
The vast majority of responses to my question boil down to 3 "crypto bear theses"
1) "Macro conditions" 2) 2018 PTSD 3) No Valuations / high correlation
The general consensus is that "dollar up, rates up, central bank tightening = bad for risk assets like tech stocks and digital assets"
There is some truth to this, but it's nuanced...
Dec 7, 2021 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Clearly, there have been internal issues at $SUSHI. Today @arca is releasing a re-structuring proposal of Sushi-Core to address this, & the lack of transparency, so SUSHI can scale & continue to ship world class community-owned DeFi products.
forum.sushi.com/t/sushi-dao-re…1) After @0xMaki moved to an advisor role, $SUSHI transitioned to a flat org structure, w/out clear leadership and responsibility over products. This led to product delays, team infighting, & lack of transparency.
Oct 22, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1) IMO, fat protocol thesis still isn’t proven. The crazy rise in Layer 1 valuations are due to 2 reasons:
A) retail & TradFi investors lack resources/skills to analyze applications, so layer 1s become the “lazy man’s index” - a catch all solution for overall growth
2) B) digital asset investing is still dominated by early stage VCs who focus on TAM over financials, and seek out what “could be” over “what currently is”. Few technologies have higher potential upsides, so layer 1s fit their strategy better
Oct 7, 2021 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Oh good... #Tether is back in the "news". Here's my updated take on $USDT.
Quick thread 👇
1) I see nothing new in this Bloomberg story. It's the same story over & over. Tether is backed by assets which add up to 100% of reserves in good times with good marks, but likely wouldn't be fully backed if there is a huge stress to the system.
We are thankful and grateful for @0xMaki’s contributions to the $SUSHI project. It goes without saying that this project would not be what it is today without his leadership during a time of uncertainty and crisis.
… this is a good reminder of what makes $SUSHI & open source, community-driven projects so special. @0xMaki was not a founder, nor a hired CEO…he is a community member, like everyone else, who stepped up when the project needed leadership.
Sep 15, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Quick thoughts on the OpenSea "insider NFT front-running scandal"
1) Prior to regulatory clarity, the onus is on the community to adopt best practices, voluntarily, & to self-police. We continue to call on all companies, projects & investors to increase transparency.
2) Unpaid, volunteer, passionate community members are amazing at uncovering data. The OpenSea front-running is another example of a bad actor being caught by the community via the transparency of the blockchain, rather than by "cops on the beat".
Following the proposed changes to the $SUSHI raise, below is an update for the Sushi community on Arca’s involvement, and our interpretation of the new proposed deal, as discussed yesterday on the community call with @OmakaseBar, @amytongwu @0xChu & @Crypto_Alex17
2/ As mentioned previously, Arca is one of the largest holders of xSushi. Our ownership of $SUSHI was the same as everyone else’s - we bought on the open market, and we ride or die with the success of the project and the community.
Arca is vehemently against the value-destroying Phantom Trope proposal for $SUSHI.
Arca will backstop a new proposal with a first tranche bid price 31% above current TWAP price.
We have posted our proposal in the Sushi forum, and a summary is below 👇
forum.sushi.com/t/sushi-phanto…1) Arca is one of the largest xSUSHI holders w/ 7.51% of the circulating supply. We bought all tokens in the secondary market, without lockups or discounts. We are customers, we stake, & and we have been very outspoken publicly, supporting the ecosystem.
It's not rocket science why $BNB, $FTT, $AAVE, $SUSHI, $HXRO, $CHZ, $AXS, $UNI, $MKR, $NXM, $CAKE, $PERP, $MATIC & other revenue generating entities have been amongst the best performing tokens.
Jun 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Everyone is convinced that we've entered a digital assets bear market!
But we asked industry leaders, funds & traders what the bear thesis is, and there isn't a lot of substance.
In this week's "That's our Two Satoshis" via @arca, we debunk each one:
Bear theses that we refute include (1-5): 1) CCP regime change is intent on killing digital assets
2)Massive regulatory pressure from the US 3) The Fed will be tapering soon and that is bad for risk assets 4) Retail momentum and interest is dead 5) Lack of institutional interest