A lot of people asking why @votevets went into #NY19 for @PatRyanUC when almost no one else would. It's not very complex.
 
Here's a quick thread on why we spent over $500,000 to help Pat win. First, @PatRyanUC is an incredibly smart and skilled candidate and public servant. We noticed that when @VoteVets backed him in 2018. He lost, but showed us a lot, and we knew his future was bright.

He then continued to serve in Ulster County and built a deeper base.

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The #ny19 race is going to go down to the wire. Glad we @votevets put 500k into the race for @PatRyanUC

Win or lose its a huge win for democrats across the country. This should have been an easy @GOP win.

Molinaro has to win the machines 55-45 to win the race. Biden won #ny19 by 1 point. If @PatRyanUC even keeps its close it’s a sign the @GOP wave in November may not exist. AT ALL!

Some questions on sustainment and the will to win in Ukraine based on my experience in Iraq as an advisor and working at the end with Foreign Military Sales (FMS) team. 🧵 Armies have to want to fight. The Peshmerga who I helped trained in 2011 wanted to fight. They had to fight. They were partners. The Iraqi Army wasn’t as committed and it showed. Yet, they had an extraordinary amount of US equipment. That brings me to my sustainment questions.

1. Russia is clearly resorting to WWII-style tactics. A short thread on what that means for the people of Ukraine and NATO.
 
🧵 2. The horrific targeting of the nuclear power plant, by Russia, last night, makes clear that the Russians are very much focused on destroying basic infrastructure now -- power, water, etc.

The goal in doing so is to cause mass exodus of refugees. Potentially millions.

Russia MAY use massive fires on Ukrainian cities. It will undermine their strategic goals so let’s dive into Russian doctrine and discuss why they are using operational objectives that undermine their strategic goals.

🧵 Obviously Russia’s operations didn’t force a quick and simple surrender like Putin expected.

Now caught in a corner and looking for a way out Russia may default to their love of artillery “fires” warfare to create leverage and pain during negotiation.

🧵

Another day, and Putin is no closer to achieving his strategic objectives 1) Limit western influence in Ukraine (NATO) 2) Install a puppet govt.

No matter what you see on TV Russia is losing this war.

Russia’s strategy has & will continue to backfire.

🧵 Let’s look at effects based doctrine to better understand. EBO was designed to understand the strategic objectives and develop operational and tactical objectives that support them.

🧵

We awake in the 🇺🇸 to another day of Russia losing their war in the 🇺🇦

Lots of questions about how can Russia lose when they have a much more massive force, so let me explain from my Army War College education

1. strategic objectives must be supported by operation and tactical ones. If they don’t align it’s hard to win.

Take Iraq for example. Somehow out strategic objective became a friendly democracy in the Middle East, but would war be the operational way to achieve this?

2.

Russia is in deep deep trouble. Even if they capture Kiev it’s like grabbing a tiger by it’s tail. Even if they win phase 3 (dominate) they will lose phase 4 (stabilize).

War is a TOOL for a political objective and I just don’t see Ukrainians accepting a Russian puppet govt. Military planners often underestimate the will of the people. There was clear difference when we trained the Peshmerga vs the Iraqi Army or the Afghan one. Armies have to WANT to fight. The Ukrainian resolve is simply extraordinary.

Damn. Biden is a strong leader. 4 Presidents and he was the only one with the courage to end this war and not pass it to another administration.

That’s why over 60 percent of Veterans agree. And I’m on them. #Afghanistan First and foremost, what we achieved in terms of moving people out of the country has been nothing short of extraordinary. Out of the initial chaos, our military and the Commander in Chief moved out 120,000 people. The largest NEO of its kind in history. Incredible.