Justin Hart Profile picture
Unraveling COVID-19 fears one chart at a time // mktg + AI // data, demographics, and steaks. justinhart.biz@gmail.com // claimed by @jennyerikson. Father to 7!
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19 Feb
Let's be clear: #LockdownsKill
Here are all the studies we've gathered showing the impact on lives beyond the challenges of #COVID19.
2/ 1.4 million additional tuberculosis deaths due to lockdown disruptions. #RationalGround ctt.ec/fU0Uf+ (pdf)
3/ 500,000 additional deaths related to HIV projected because of lockdowns.
Read 16 tweets
15 Feb
video from the @ChefGruel tweet of a health inspector doing a happy dance that she had shut down another business.

It reminds me of the novel "The Betrothed" by Manzoni about the plague in Milan. He describes the 17th century "health inspectors" (read on!)
First the penalties were raised on everyone creating classes ("stations") for every part of society:

"The strictest orders were laid upon these people; the severest penalties threatened to them; stations were assigned them; and commissaries, as we have said, placed over them"
Then new power was placed in unelected officials to keep obedience:

"...magistrates and nobles were appointed in every district, with authority to enforce good government summarily on every opportunity."
Read 16 tweets
3 Feb
"Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it."

100 years ago the mask debate raged on and on just like it does today. One set of doctors came to this conclusion:
2/ That headline was in the Santa Barbara Daily News and the Independent, Nov 16, 1918. "The average person doesn't know how to take care of a mask... and it not cleansed the thing soon becomes a veritable bacteria incubator." - Looking around you... has anything changed?
3/ One doctor interviewed then states: "As a matter of fact, the common use of the mask tends to propagate rather than check influenza." Read the whole thing...
but that's not all...

Let's hop over to Iowa. Des Moines Tribune, Nov 30, 1918...
Read 19 tweets
27 Jan
We've lost our ever-lovin' minds.
I thought it was a parody. Nope... it's real.
Also - my favorite bit it where they use "Efficiency" in the graphic instead of "Efficacy"

@thenewsoncnbc & crew are SO SMART!
Read 4 tweets
24 Jan
Have you seen this level of detailed reporting ANYWHERE else? @jhaskinscabrera, editor of @AlachuaChronic1 and contributor to @Rational_Ground examined some 700 death certificates from the state of Florida:

Here are some of the more interesting ones:
- 84M, PART 1: a. Cerebrovascular accident, b. atherosclerosis, PART 2: COVID-19 pneumonia
- 85M, PART 1: a. Ischemic cardiomyopathy, PART 2: Chronic kidney disease, COVID-19
- 57M, PART 1: a. Coronary artery disease, PART 2: asymptomatic COVID-19 positive swab

-88M, PART 1: a. Failure to thrive, b. dementia, c. type II diabetes, PART 2: COVID-19 positive
-79F, PART 1: a. renal cancer – 4 months, PART 2: COVID-19
-56F, PART 1: a. complications of paraplegia (non-traumatic), PART 2: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ...COVID-19

Read 18 tweets
16 Jan
As @KevinKileyCA pointed out, @GavinNewsom put out a 51 page framework which will ensure that California schools remain essentially closed for 2021. It's nightmare.

Here are the key highlights which will drive you crazy
1) "Weekly testing at schools in communities with high rates of transmission."

This will be the single greatest mistake. Cases will be found in a glass of water and those schools will remain locked and condemned. There is ZERO need to test asymptomatic people
2) "All staff and students in schools are required to wear masks. Furthermore, surgical masks will be recommended for school staff, and the Administration will distribute millions of surgical masks to schools at no cost."

We knew this was coming. So unnecessary. So ridiculous
Read 5 tweets
15 Jan
The @COVID19Tracking shows a very steep chart of #COVID19 "current hospitalizations." We 100% should track this ebb & flow to make sure our hospitals aren't overly burdens (another topic).

However note: "current hospitalizations" DOES NOT EQUAL "number of cases hospitalized"
1/ ImageImage
My chart on the left is taken from the CDC case surveillance file and shows cases with known hospitalization status by earliest date on record. The
CTP chart on the right shows # of people currently hospitalized.

So, what's happening?
One factor is a change in treatment.

In late October approval was given for Rendesivir which requires a 5-day hospital stay and treatment plan. Most patients have serious improvements by day 2 but are required to get the full allotment.
Average num of days/stay is up.
Read 6 tweets
15 Jan
Here are some screenshots from our webinar the other night via @DrKristenW.

Dr. Walsh is a pediatrician and recounts what they are seeing in their offices. Short version: the impacts of the shutdowns on kids FAR outweigh their risks from COVID.
We sometimes joke about putting on the COVID "19" as adults. Weight gain is a BIG issue surrounding the lockdowns but the impact on kids is severe. Dr. Walsh points to 2 studies showing more eating and less exercise among kids leading to (at least!) a 2% increase in obesity
Putting on a few pounds is one thing but Dr. Walsh points out the rise in eating disorders. These serious ailments are complicated by the fact that we didn't catch them early - because of... lockdowns. In some months, eating disorder hotlines reported a 78% increase in calls
Read 8 tweets
1 Jan
Core rates from the CDC!
Some takeaways:
- The rate of hospitalization is now the same rate of being hospitalized from influenza: 3%
- The CFR drop is spectacular. Team Apocalypse has a problem
- If you got #COVID19 consider yourself lucky, you coulda got sick in NYC in March
These stats are taken from the newly release CDC Case Surveillance file with 13 million cases, 703K hospitalizations, 75K ICUs, and 239K deaths. More stats across the entire pandemic (thru 12/15):
I mentioned Team Apocalypse has a problem. They will tell you that the hospitalization and CFR rates are much lower now because we are testing more.

What's that you say? Are you saying you agree with Team Reason that the testing regime is overblown? Sweet music to my ears!
Read 6 tweets
31 Dec 20
End of the year gifts from the CDC! The new case surveillance file is out tracking through 12/15. It shows 13.5 million cases and here are the key stats.

Chart 1: Overall CFR seems to have dropped below 1%
(note: that's the CFR! The IFR will be significantly lower)
Rate of hospitalization for #COVID19 is now in high seasonal influenza levels. 2017-18 season saw about a 3% hospitalization rate. That's right where we are. Hosp to death ratio is still much higher than flu of course but down 2/3rds from what it was in the spring
If we were to track things properly and use lab-confirmed tests with a date of onset illness there would be only 77K COVID deaths. An additional 61K deaths have a lab-confirmed result but no onset date. Another 32K deaths have no hospitalization and 42K deaths have little info
Read 4 tweets
29 Dec 20
3000 healthcare providers participate in ILINet. These hospitals punch in the number of ER visits coming in with "Influenza-Like-Illness." Early on in the pandemic they were asked to log CLI% "COVID-Like-Illness". It's an excellent proxy for gauging #COVID19 - trending down!
4 more regions
Last regions.
With the exception of New York - most everything seems to be over the hump.

Of course the ILI measure is all but gone. The mystery of what happened to the flu will be for another time.
Read 4 tweets
28 Dec 20
I know you've heard that we've witnessed 1000 deaths a day since mid-Sept and 3000 deaths a day every day in December reportedly. But that is NOT the case. The CDC adds deaths each day and we show you how they accumulate by month.

Here are #COVID19 deaths by week w/months
As you can see we started averaging 1000 deaths a day in November and we have yet to see a spike week averaging 3000 deaths/day EVER this pandemic. December has been averaging 1200 to 1700 deaths per day and will likely NOT hit the April peak of 17K deaths in a single week
We can also show you what this looks like by week. Deaths lag but they show very strong epi curves up and down.
Read 7 tweets
21 Dec 20
I've been tagging these hypocrites with "rules are for thee" -- This is only back to August - but ho-ly crap!
Read 6 tweets
20 Dec 20
BREAKING! Do mask mandates work? Our analysis below.
We looked at cases on days where mask mandates were in place vs when they were not. We calculated the cases per day adjusted for population and:

27 cases per day per 100K people

17 cases

1/ Image
That's right. With mandates in place states say 10 more cases per 100K population. Here's the breakdown by state. Many states have had days with mandates (blue) and without (orange)

Drawn your own conclusions.
2/ ImageImage
Team Apocalypse will object and say: "well, states which put mandates in place were seeing surges in cases!" Perhaps... but our data shows that even AFTER the mandates went up... it did nothing.
h/t to our friend @ianmSC
3/ ImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets
19 Dec 20
Things look dire in SoCal hospitals. Check out these quotes!

“We’ve never had so many patients,” said Adrian Cotton, chief of medical operations at Loma Linda University Health in San Bernardino County.”

(read to the last quote please)
“...at least one hospital has set up an outdoor triage tent to handle the overflow of people”

“In Long Beach, hospitals have started visitor restrictions. In the South Bay, a conference center has been transformed into an ambulatory clinic.”
We have signage set up all over the hospital to inform patients that, if they have any family members with even signs of symptoms, not to visit”

“Loma Linda emergency physicians are seeing about 60 more patients a day than usual, Cotton said.”
Read 9 tweets
17 Dec 20
Here's a play-by-play rundown of the judge's order allowing strip clubs AND restaurants to resume service in San Diego. The county will try to claw it back but the order is clear: Gov officials are ENJOINED from enforcing the provisions of the cease and desist order!
You can read the entire order via @KUSINews:

My favorite part is seeing the words "OVERULED" AND "WOOTEN" in the same sentence!
The key factor motivating Judge Wohlfeil in this order is "financial ruin" - Truly restaurants and other services have been decimated by the constant changes and shutdowns. The judge gets it.
Read 13 tweets
14 Dec 20
FL and AZ are popular retirement spots (median age 42 and 38). When measuring deaths/pop it doesn't tell the whole story. Florida will ALWAYS have more deaths than NY even tho their populations are similar.

That's why we use excess deaths.
Chart: % of excess deaths per week.
You are reading that correctly. The CDC separates out NYC and at the peak it experienced 658% more deaths than expected on the week of April 5th.

AZ FL TX CA had their own moment in the summer sun (literally)

When the % excess roll in through November smoothing happens:
Excess deaths # thru Nov
NYC: 57.6%
NJ: 27.6%
AZ: 17.6%
NY: 16.7%
TX: 16.5%
FL: 13.6%
CA: 12.4%

That's right California (locked down since March) and Florida (open for months!) have the same % of excess deaths. Here are the actuals
Read 4 tweets
11 Dec 20
Holy Crap. Apparently Disney wants to take over world! Or at least - take all of my TV-watching time!

- Loki trailer (Hiddleston & Owen Wilson!)

- Falcon and WS trailer!

- New WandaVision trailer!

Rangers of the New Republic - original series
Ahsoka - original series
Andor original series
The Bad Batch - Original Animation
Visions - Japanese Anime
Lando - ORiginal series
The Acolyte - original series
A Droid Story - film
feature film by Taika
Blow my mind with this:
Ewan McGregor as Obi-Wan

and.... Hayden Christensen reprising the role of... DARTH VADER
Read 6 tweets
10 Dec 20
REVEALED! There's a reason why so many officials in California are caught off guard trying to respond to a simple question: "What was the ICU capacity around this same time last year?"

They fear... embarrassment!

We just uncovered details which they tried to delete.
Los Angeles County and the Hospital Association created a pandemic plan back in 2009. They got rid of the document recently but the internet is forever.

Even the appendix with its lengthy array of admission numbers shows us that we're not even close to emergency room admission during the worst pandemic projections.
Read 6 tweets
10 Dec 20
Here's why we're so concerned about lockdown deaths.
- If you take the avg deaths over the past 5 years
- compare that to deaths in 2020
- break it down by age bracket
- subtract out #COVID19 deaths by age bracket
= you're left with unexplained excess deaths.
So for the US population of people ages 65 to 74 the expected deaths were somewhere around 475K but 532K of these folks died in 2020 - about 100K more than expected. It's possible those were COVID19 deaths but the CDC only accounts for 56K of those.

But keep going..
For people aged 45 to 64 years of age their risk of dying of COVID is 10x to 50x lower than someone who is 80 years old. But we still have 13K deaths we can't account for!
Read 5 tweets
1 Dec 20
Another exclusive of elite hypocrisy from @BillFOXLA - this time L.A. Supervisor @SheilaKuehl just hours after voting to close the "risky" restaurants across the entire county was seen dining at Il Forno Trattoria. I've been there many times and I imagined this conversation:
“a most dangerous situation… “ said Supervisor @SheilaKuehl as she savored each bite of Bresaola, the salty cured imported air dried beef blanketed by grilled zucchini, celery root, with a generous portion of shaved parmesan and a touch of truffle mustard.
"... a risk of tables of unmasked patrons potentially exposing their servers to the coronavirus.” She said and smiled as John, her server, indulged her with an extra side of pine nuts for her $21 Trofie al Gusto. Always so colorful! Just a splash of olive oil she reminded him.
Read 6 tweets