"Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it."
100 years ago the mask debate raged on and on just like it does today. One set of doctors came to this conclusion: 1/
2/ That headline was in the Santa Barbara Daily News and the Independent, Nov 16, 1918. "The average person doesn't know how to take care of a mask... and it not cleansed the thing soon becomes a veritable bacteria incubator." - Looking around you... has anything changed?
3/ One doctor interviewed then states: "As a matter of fact, the common use of the mask tends to propagate rather than check influenza." Read the whole thing...
but that's not all...
Let's hop over to Iowa. Des Moines Tribune, Nov 30, 1918...
- 84M, PART 1: a. Cerebrovascular accident, b. atherosclerosis, PART 2: COVID-19 pneumonia
- 85M, PART 1: a. Ischemic cardiomyopathy, PART 2: Chronic kidney disease, COVID-19
- 57M, PART 1: a. Coronary artery disease, PART 2: asymptomatic COVID-19 positive swab
-88M, PART 1: a. Failure to thrive, b. dementia, c. type II diabetes, PART 2: COVID-19 positive
-79F, PART 1: a. renal cancer – 4 months, PART 2: COVID-19
-56F, PART 1: a. complications of paraplegia (non-traumatic), PART 2: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ...COVID-19
1) "Weekly testing at schools in communities with high rates of transmission."
This will be the single greatest mistake. Cases will be found in a glass of water and those schools will remain locked and condemned. There is ZERO need to test asymptomatic people
2) "All staff and students in schools are required to wear masks. Furthermore, surgical masks will be recommended for school staff, and the Administration will distribute millions of surgical masks to schools at no cost."
We knew this was coming. So unnecessary. So ridiculous
The @COVID19Tracking shows a very steep chart of #COVID19 "current hospitalizations." We 100% should track this ebb & flow to make sure our hospitals aren't overly burdens (another topic).
However note: "current hospitalizations" DOES NOT EQUAL "number of cases hospitalized" 1/
My chart on the left is taken from the CDC case surveillance file and shows cases with known hospitalization status by earliest date on record. The
CTP chart on the right shows # of people currently hospitalized.
So, what's happening?
One factor is a change in treatment.
In late October approval was given for Rendesivir which requires a 5-day hospital stay and treatment plan. Most patients have serious improvements by day 2 but are required to get the full allotment.
Average num of days/stay is up.
Here are some screenshots from our webinar the other night via @DrKristenW.
Dr. Walsh is a pediatrician and recounts what they are seeing in their offices. Short version: the impacts of the shutdowns on kids FAR outweigh their risks from COVID. 1/
We sometimes joke about putting on the COVID "19" as adults. Weight gain is a BIG issue surrounding the lockdowns but the impact on kids is severe. Dr. Walsh points to 2 studies showing more eating and less exercise among kids leading to (at least!) a 2% increase in obesity 2/
Putting on a few pounds is one thing but Dr. Walsh points out the rise in eating disorders. These serious ailments are complicated by the fact that we didn't catch them early - because of... lockdowns. In some months, eating disorder hotlines reported a 78% increase in calls 3/
Core rates from the CDC!
- The rate of hospitalization is now the same rate of being hospitalized from influenza: 3%
- The CFR drop is spectacular. Team Apocalypse has a problem
- If you got #COVID19 consider yourself lucky, you coulda got sick in NYC in March 1/
These stats are taken from the newly release CDC Case Surveillance file with 13 million cases, 703K hospitalizations, 75K ICUs, and 239K deaths. More stats across the entire pandemic (thru 12/15): 2/
I mentioned Team Apocalypse has a problem. They will tell you that the hospitalization and CFR rates are much lower now because we are testing more.
What's that you say? Are you saying you agree with Team Reason that the testing regime is overblown? Sweet music to my ears! 3/
End of the year gifts from the CDC! The new case surveillance file is out tracking through 12/15. It shows 13.5 million cases and here are the key stats.
Chart 1: Overall CFR seems to have dropped below 1%
(note: that's the CFR! The IFR will be significantly lower) 1/
Rate of hospitalization for #COVID19 is now in high seasonal influenza levels. 2017-18 season saw about a 3% hospitalization rate. That's right where we are. Hosp to death ratio is still much higher than flu of course but down 2/3rds from what it was in the spring 2/
If we were to track things properly and use lab-confirmed tests with a date of onset illness there would be only 77K COVID deaths. An additional 61K deaths have a lab-confirmed result but no onset date. Another 32K deaths have no hospitalization and 42K deaths have little info
3000 healthcare providers participate in ILINet. These hospitals punch in the number of ER visits coming in with "Influenza-Like-Illness." Early on in the pandemic they were asked to log CLI% "COVID-Like-Illness". It's an excellent proxy for gauging #COVID19 - trending down! 1/
4 more regions
With the exception of New York - most everything seems to be over the hump.
Of course the ILI measure is all but gone. The mystery of what happened to the flu will be for another time.
I know you've heard that we've witnessed 1000 deaths a day since mid-Sept and 3000 deaths a day every day in December reportedly. But that is NOT the case. The CDC adds deaths each day and we show you how they accumulate by month.
As you can see we started averaging 1000 deaths a day in November and we have yet to see a spike week averaging 3000 deaths/day EVER this pandemic. December has been averaging 1200 to 1700 deaths per day and will likely NOT hit the April peak of 17K deaths in a single week 2/
We can also show you what this looks like by week. Deaths lag but they show very strong epi curves up and down. 3/
BREAKING! Do mask mandates work? Our analysis below.
We looked at cases on days where mask mandates were in place vs when they were not. We calculated the cases per day adjusted for population and:
WITH MASK MANDATE:
27 cases per day per 100K people
NO MASK MADATE
That's right. With mandates in place states say 10 more cases per 100K population. Here's the breakdown by state. Many states have had days with mandates (blue) and without (orange)
Drawn your own conclusions. 2/
Team Apocalypse will object and say: "well, states which put mandates in place were seeing surges in cases!" Perhaps... but our data shows that even AFTER the mandates went up... it did nothing.
h/t to our friend @ianmSC 3/
Here's a play-by-play rundown of the judge's order allowing strip clubs AND restaurants to resume service in San Diego. The county will try to claw it back but the order is clear: Gov officials are ENJOINED from enforcing the provisions of the cease and desist order! 1/
FL and AZ are popular retirement spots (median age 42 and 38). When measuring deaths/pop it doesn't tell the whole story. Florida will ALWAYS have more deaths than NY even tho their populations are similar.
That's why we use excess deaths.
Chart: % of excess deaths per week. 1/
You are reading that correctly. The CDC separates out NYC and at the peak it experienced 658% more deaths than expected on the week of April 5th.
AZ FL TX CA had their own moment in the summer sun (literally)
When the % excess roll in through November smoothing happens: 2/
Rangers of the New Republic - original series
Ahsoka - original series
Andor original series
The Bad Batch - Original Animation
Visions - Japanese Anime
Lando - ORiginal series
The Acolyte - original series
A Droid Story - film
feature film by Taika
Blow my mind with this:
Ewan McGregor as Obi-Wan
and.... Hayden Christensen reprising the role of... DARTH VADER
Here's why we're so concerned about lockdown deaths.
- If you take the avg deaths over the past 5 years
- compare that to deaths in 2020
- break it down by age bracket
- subtract out #COVID19 deaths by age bracket
= you're left with unexplained excess deaths. 1/
So for the US population of people ages 65 to 74 the expected deaths were somewhere around 475K but 532K of these folks died in 2020 - about 100K more than expected. It's possible those were COVID19 deaths but the CDC only accounts for 56K of those.
But keep going..
For people aged 45 to 64 years of age their risk of dying of COVID is 10x to 50x lower than someone who is 80 years old. But we still have 13K deaths we can't account for! 3/
Another exclusive of elite hypocrisy from @BillFOXLA - this time L.A. Supervisor @SheilaKuehl just hours after voting to close the "risky" restaurants across the entire county was seen dining at Il Forno Trattoria. I've been there many times and I imagined this conversation: 1/
“a most dangerous situation… “ said Supervisor @SheilaKuehl as she savored each bite of Bresaola, the salty cured imported air dried beef blanketed by grilled zucchini, celery root, with a generous portion of shaved parmesan and a touch of truffle mustard. 2/
"... a risk of tables of unmasked patrons potentially exposing their servers to the coronavirus.” She said and smiled as John, her server, indulged her with an extra side of pine nuts for her $21 Trofie al Gusto. Always so colorful! Just a splash of olive oil she reminded him. 3/