SNP supporters overwhelmingly believe “Scotland sends more to Westminster than it gets back in public spending” - in fact most Scots are more likely to believe this than not

thread🧵 … … for SNP supporters, this belief is very important to their support for independence …

a tale of rank stupidity, told pour encourager les autres

so late last night Jane and I decided to drive up into the hills behind where we live in the hope of spotting some Northern Lights … none to be seen, but no worries: we can just complete the loop and drive home

you see i wanted to drive this loop because there was a massive puddle that turned me back from my run the night before and i wanted to see if it had drained …

so catching breath after a quick dash through what the SG promised would be the economic case for independence as presented in their “Building a New Scotland: A stronger economy with independence” paper published today …

1/n

gov.scot/publications/b… 2/n

They don’t even attempt to address the challenges presented by Scotland’s fiscal deficit - and they rely on a previously tested line that ignores over £7bn of devolved public spending that takes place in Scotland

[see chokkablog.blogspot.com/2021/01/whats-…]

just did an interview on BBC GMS and have to say i’m frustrated that both first and (very lengthy) last word was given to the Scexit supporting voice without giving me any chance to respond … … fwiw i’d have responded that it’s risible to suggest we are now “kickstarting the debate” given it hasn’t stopped since 2014 - and that we shouldn’t confuse party & constitutional politics: Scexit isn’t the only alternative, there’s a Labour government in waiting!

*cracks knuckles*

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1578310053181808640

predictions:

1. Nonsense about savings from reserved spending that ignore how much of that reserved spending already takes place *in* Scotland

Preview of upcoming GERS Blog:

Scotland’s fiscal transfer from the UK is £12bn or £2.2k per head, almost all due to higher spending - oil revenues disguise the fact that the underlying deficit gap is growing because of poor relative “onshore” revenue per head performance

1/n It has been a long time since Scotland “put in more than we got out” - and cumulatively since the oil boom Scotland is now a clear net beneficiary of UK-wide pooling and sharing of taxes

2/n

i keep seeing “yeah but what are the positive reasons for Scotland to remain in the UK?” tweets, so thought i’d have a go at creating my personal Top 10 …

#thread 1. Borders: The UK single market (a shared currency with free movement of goods, services, capital and people) has been an enduring success

the whole “the UK will pay pensions in an independent Scotland” myth is worthy of a case-study — the idea is ludicrous and the SNP have accepted that it’s nonsense … and yet there’s a cabal of cybernats who now insist it’s true and are no doubt persuading some gullible voters 🤷‍♂️ for those unfamiliar with the background

chokkablog.blogspot.com/2019/02/indepe…

OK, so reading this in detail now - may make some observations as I go …

1/? astonishing to not that in all of the graphs shown, in none of them has the Scottish Government bothered to even attempt to show data for Scotland (instead always showing whole UK)

that surely a massive problem in a paper that’s meant to be about Scotland’s future?

2/?

so here we go again - the SNP’s latest prices of statistical gerrymandering in their new paper is as blatant as their previous attempts

1/n

#ANewScotland when the SNP’s Growth Commission tried this exercise, they included New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong

at least this latest paper recognised how ridiculous those comparisons were and has dropped them

2/n

here’s SNP Finance Secretary @_KateForbes in the National (print run sent to over 1m homes is Scotland) - there is simply no economically rational way to defend this statement, as anybody familiar with the Scottish Government’s GERS report would know (1/2) what really rubs it in is this comes on the back of this statement by Sturgeon

i urge anybody doubting the simple economic reality in question here to read this > these-islands.co.uk/publications/i…

The last blog was a long one, so here it is summarised as a 10 tweet thread

The focus is on latest GERS 2021 figures abs what they tell us about fiscal transfers (over time) between Scotland and the UK

1/11 an implied fiscal transfer exists between Scotland and the Uk because Scotland’s deficit per person is greater that we share with the UK

it was £12 billion last year & Scotland has consistently been a large beneficiary in recent years

2/11

reading the GERS report so you don’t have to …

1. glad to see a point that i’ve made in various blog posts now being made explicitly in the GERS commentary: there is a lot of expenditure *in* Scotland not captured by GERS

(1/n) sub-text here is that claims made by the likes of the Growth Commission, Common Weal and Richard Murphy that Scotland could benefit by (net) transferring several billion of GERS spending from rUK to Scotland are hopelessly wide of the mark

see here > chokkablog.blogspot.com/2021/01/whats-…

2/n

OK, here’s a brief thread on an important revelation by Sturgeon in her recent interview with @C4Ciaran (below)
1/9

https://twitter.com/C4Ciaran/status/1382814368799264769

“the general approach of the Growth Commission is one that I absolutely agree with, but the figures of course pre-date Covid .. and we have to take account of the changes around Covid”

“the underlying approach of the Growth Commission is one that i very much sign up to”

2/9

well now, this contains such a ludicrous assertion that i have to indulge in a brief thread - stick with me, it’s a doozy
(1/6)

https://twitter.com/andrewwilson/status/1355578115070832642

for this statement to make sense, the “UK government programmes which could be replicated or not” include the following *in Scotland* spending:

Network Rail: £900m
Research & Innovation: £500m
Renewable Heat Incentive: £171m
R&D etc Tax Credits: £530m
...
(2/6)

have been observing more focus groups (of converts to the idea of breaking up the UK) - a couple of observations perhaps worth sharing

(1/7) it’s remarkable the extent to which people are willing to give the SNP (effectively Nicola Sturgeon) the benefit of the doubt - when irrefutable economic facts are put in front of them (the Scottish Government’s own data), these are the sort of reactions we hear:

(2/7)

there’s some terrible news for the separatists hidden in that Progress Scotland poll (1/n)

progressscotland.org/research/scotl… the option most people prefer is not a credible option for an independent country seeking to be in control of its economic destiny - and is certainly incompatible with joining the EU
(2/n)

next week:

Bombshell poll reveals 90% of Scots are ready to vote Yes if they believe we’d give them the elixir of youth seriously though: political lifetimes have been dedicated to trying to make an economic case for independence, and all this poll confirms is that they’ve failed

they’ve failed because there is no attractive economic case

is it just me, or was there a rather sinister vibe to that party political broadcast by the SNP?

[ICYMI: finished with a series of talking heads staring blankly at the camera chanting “Change Must Come”] Change Must Come

This tweet from the SNP’s official account is a shameless attempt to misinform and is demonstrably untrue - as is obvious to anybody who reads the actual statement the IFS released: “the overall figure will probably be nearer £900m”

ifs.org.uk/publications/1…

(1/5) there was confusion when the “Plan for Jobs” announcement was made - and i issued a clarification and apology when the scale of “recycled spending” included became clear (& the IFS revised their initial reaction) - but this SNP tweet is outrageous

chokkablog.blogspot.com/2020/07/fact-c…

(2/5)

right, in the name of all that's good and holy can we bury this nonsense once and for all

[and if you're a pro-independence supporter who claims to be in favour of rational informed debate, why not prove it by RTing this thread?]

Let me prove why this claim is nonsense (1/6) To find out what is charged to Scotland for HS2 in GERS ("your deficit"), you simply need to go to the supporting files provided by the Scottish Government's economists here > gov.scot/publications/g…

(2/6)