The prototypical x-market monetary financial economist. Published in all major financial media. Spoke at every major fin industry conference. Policy regular.
Jan 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The single biggest attraction of #Bitcoin from a fin asset perspective has been the fact that it's a scarce asset. There’s a fixed supply. It’s seen as the hedge to the Fed’s QE i.e. the Fed’s reflationary global USD supply expansion. It's a US dollar hedge (competing with gold)
And in that sense, Bitcoin is well correlated with Tech and the Fed’s QE/ long Treasury duration trade.
In other words, Bitcoin is correlated to the macro-market climate. That is the Fed.
Here’s the chart of front-month CME Bitcoin vs the VIX and US 10y Treasury yields.
Jan 27, 2022 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Three major implications of the 26 Jan FOMC and Powell’s press conference:
-The Fed has acknowledged that product markets are historically tight (and will remain so even as higher inflation and market volatility are undoing the effects of fiscal & monetary stimulus).
/Thread
Meanwhile, Fed policy is historically easy. This means historically greater scope for the Fed to withdraw stimulus before it returns to neutral.
The exact quote from Fed Chair Powell was: “I think there's room to raise interest rates without threatening the labor market.”
2/
Dec 15, 2020 • 22 tweets • 6 min read
The ECB's long-standing negative rates policy remains unpopular in a union of chronic high savings (demand deficits) & yield-hungry investors. Here I argue that the ECB must do everything it can to escape its liquidity trap of “negative rates forever” CC @elerianm@VMRConstancio
First, negative rates are a reflection of a problem. Sub-zero arrived in Europe in 2014 in response to a critical problem of policy credibility – the arrival of the zero lower bound for the ECB’s main policy rate in the face of persistently low inflation expectations /thread/ 2/n
Jul 28, 2019 • 27 tweets • 5 min read
A UK Brexit Update: A Prime Minister of Opposition
If you are here, then Congratulations! This is all the summary on Boris Johnson's new UK government that you’ll need to connect the dots on the outlook for Brexit from an observer market practitioner perspective.
Enjoy! 1/
The UK has a new kind of government - A Government of Opposition:
Despite the logic of economists, parliamentary observers and pollsters, a no-deal Brexit is the most likely government policy. This remains, as we've consistently argued for the past 3yrs, the default scenario. 2/
