It has been four years since the major protests of 2020 and the regime's crackdown that plunged Belarus into an unprecedented political crisis. Four years ago, I had to flee my home with one carry-on bag. I was lucky I got out safe.🧵 So are my colleagues who are joining me in this discussion, @VasilNavumau and @VolhaPavuk. All three of us are now “convicted felons” in sham trials in absentia. Vasil and I got 10 years sentences for “an attempt to overthrow the government ” and “harm to national security”

Will Lukashenka command troops to enter Ukraine if Putin asks to do so? The accuracy of such predictions is like gazing in a crystal bowl-it’s safer to rely on intel/security monitoring, watching the actual movement/preparations by BY army (or rather lack of it at the moment)1/ TLDR: It’s speculative to predict whether Luka would join Putin’s war. However, if you wonder about BY regime’s dependence on Moscow & ability to resist it, look at how they give up tax sovereignty to integration demands in exchange for short-term gains to sustain the economy. 2/

How to make sense of today’s Putin’s speech? This is probably the best illustration: I was approached by a major Belarusian media outlet to comment on it, but after viewing the Kremlin's stream, journalists decided not to write about it as there was not much new being said. 1/ TLDR: Today’s performance at the Kremlin was rather a gesture of desperation. However, the more vulnerable Russia feels, the more toxic it gets. This could include forcing Lukashenka to send troops to Ukraine and even further depriving Belarus of sovereignty. 2/

I recently wrote an op-ed about relations between #Belarus & #Russia in light of #UkraineRussianWar. TLDR: While BY democratic movement still exists, it's not 100% that if/when Putin loses, Belarus will be free. 1/13 BY has a much better chance if Kremlin becomes democratic but that's both obvious & widely viewed as at best a medium term outcome. More likely is a weakened Russia lacks ability and/or will to keep Luka in power. 2/

In this article, @Michael_Lipin talks about possible role of Belarus in further involvement in Russian aggression towards Ukraine. My two cents are also quoted there. In the thread below, I'm adding a few more thoughts. 1/14 voanews.com/a/belarusian-s… TLDR: This tread looks at the possibility of Belarus military involvement in Ukraine on Russian side. Short version, Luka knows it's unpopular, the Belarusian military isn't up to much but it may happen so they can do dirty work. 2/

In this piece for @ForeignPolicy @ak_mack highlights the Belarusian perspective on the current crisis. My 2 ¢ are quoted in the article. A few more thoughts of mine below. 1/12🧵foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/04/bel… Public opinion polls (e.g. Belarus Analytical Workroom) consistently show that the majority of Belarusians are against the invasion, and 2/3 are against the usage of Belarusian territory and infrastructure by the Russian army. 2/12 belsat.eu/in-focus/26-04…

Here is my most recent, published by EU Observer, on Belarusians as the other victims of Putin's war. TLDR: We tried to get rid of him but his savage crackdown worked & while we deeply regret Putin's invasion& want no part of it, please don't blame us. 1/euobserver.com/opinion/154519 Lukashenka's brutal crackdown shocked the world in August 2020. The level of repression & violence was truly shocking with mass arrests,extreme violence to even the most mild protest, killings & torture. I myself fled after being unsubtly followed by the KGB
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What we know about Belarusian military's involvement in assisting the Russian invasion of Ukraine.🧵 TLDR, they're doing cyber attacks, offensive kinetic ops from Belarus & logistic support. 1/ UNIAN reports that cyber ops against Ukrainian military is conducted from Minsk, with the participation of Belarusian MOD officers. They target Ukraine military mails systems. 2/ unian.net/techno/communi…

This article describes some of the effects of having Russian military in large numbers in Belarus.  TLDR: It's not pretty, for the locals, the soldiers, the Russian army or Putin. 1/9

belprauda.com/budni-soyuznoj… COVID is ripping through the units stationed in Belarus. Official stats have case numbers breaking all records. Army units have *really* high numbers at all ranks & they infecting the locals. Many soldiers are treated in field hospitals (tents?) as local facilities are full 2/9