Great to see our paper “Unemployment insurance reforms and labor market dynamics” out in the @RevEconStudies . With @makro_philip & @BenjaminHartung, we revisit the old question of labor market research of the effects of unemployment insurance reforms on unemployment rates. 1/10 We study this question based on the German Hartz reforms, one of the largest UI reforms in recent decades. After the reform unemployment has been in half. How? The key was not more jobs found (higher job-finding rates) but fewer jobs lost (lower separation rates). 2/10

Gestern hatten wir eine spannende Diskussion u.a. zum Thema Wirtschaftspolitik nach den 🇩🇪 Wahlen. Mein Startpunkt: Wir sind aktuell in einer Konjunktur- und Strukturkrise. Autos allein werden uns im 21.Jh nicht retten, wir brauchen Wachstum im Servicesektor. 1/N Wir brauchen eine Neuaustarierung des Sozialstaats. @sigmargabriel hat es so zusammengefasst: "Wir haben eine falsche Vorstellung von Arbeit." Es muss um die gehen, die arbeiten. Es geht nicht darum, Versicherung abzuschaffen, sondern Anreize und Versicherung neu abzustimmen. 2/N

What determines wages? With @christianbaye13, I provide a new answer to this old question. In our new paper “Job Levels and Wages”, we demonstrate the large explanatory power of job levels for wage differences. A short summary thread of our paper 1/8 The first question is what are job levels? Job levels summarize the Complexity, Autonomy, and Responsibility (CAR intensity) of task execution. Job levels have a long tradition in labor market reporting of statistical agencies going back to the 1950s. 2/8

💥💥💥NEW WORKING PAPER 💥💥💥
"Coordinated Firm-Level Work Processes and Macroeconomic Resilience"
joint work with Jinfeng Luo, Iourii Manovskii, and @XinchengQiu
A short thread and the link to the paper
wiwi.uni-bonn.de/kuhn/paper/Coo…

@ECON_tribute @EPoS224 @UniBonn 1/n We started with the idea that there is a lot of interdependence & coordination in the production process of firms: Workers often execute specialized tasks and depend on other workers and such dependency makes the production process susceptible to labor supply shocks. 2/n

Es wird derzeit wieder viel über eine Haushaltslösung bei der Gaspreisbremse der 🇩🇪 Regierung gesprochen. Eine Frage, die ich bisher noch nicht diskutiert und beantwortet gesehen habe, ist, ob die Haushaltsgröße eine verlässliche Bestimmung des Gasverbrauchs zulässt. 1/n Wir sind der Frage nachgegangen. Zusammen mit @christianbaye13 habe ich mir die Daten der Einkommens- und Verbrauchsstichprobe angeschaut und gefragt, wie viel der TATSÄCHLICHEN Gasrechnung eine Transferzahlung für den TYPISCHEN Haushalt ausmacht. 2/n

"What are the macroeconomic & distributional consequences for Germany of a stop of Russian energy imports?" Our @EContribute policy brief provides an answer
@BachmannRudi @DBaqaee @christianbaye13 @kuhnmo @andreasloeschel @ben_moll @APeichl #KarenPittel @MSchularick Our answer: Consequences are severe but seem manageable. How severe? That depends on how fast and determined policy reacts to reduce and substitute energy. How do we arrive at this conclusion? A short thread 2/n

The consequences of the #covidcrisis are the macroeconomic topic of the day. Many observers & researchers compare the situation to the global financial crisis of 2008. A key difference is the large rise of household debt & asset prices that pre-dated the financial crisis. 1/17 In a new paper w/ Alina Bartscher, @MSchularick & Ulrike Steins, we explore the drivers behind the built-up of household debt in the U.S. before the financial crisis. We exploit newly available long-run microdata on the financial situation of households from 1949 to 2016. 2/17

@christianbaye13 & me have been thinking about the big differences in mortality rates so far during the corona outbreak in Europe. The differences in case-fatality rates are humongous. Italy has one of 6% while countries like Norway, Denmark & Germany have rates still close to 0. Of course the rates will likely converge somewhat over time as the virus spreads and there are many effects in this. Division bias may play a role, as does the time since the outbreak.