Our paper Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections was just published in Frontiers in Climate! 🥳 We provide perspectives on how to provide the best climate information for the next years to decades frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
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Currently, short-term climate information (up to 10 years into the future) is provided by initialized predictions, while the long-term evolution of the climate system is provided by projections. Check out this explainer from @EUCP_H2020 for more 👇 eucp-project.eu/science-highli…
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Nov 13, 2020 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
Is the strong future warming found in several next-generation #CMIP6 climate models realistic? We apply weights based on the models’ historical performance and independence to find out.
Our study is now published in @EGU_ESD 👇 doi.org/10.5194/esd-11…
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We calculate distributions of change in different variables, like the Transient Climate Response (a comparable measure for how much a model warms due to CO2 🏭). Weighting can considerably shift these distributions and increase their skill.
We have collected 8 different methods looking into this question! Check out our new @AMSJCLi paper for a comparison and discussion 👇 doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D…
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Main takeaway: 🌡️ Under a high emission scenario we have to expect 2-3°C of additional warming in #Europe by the middle of the century.
🌍However, exact numbers across methods vary in several regions (such as Northern Europe)!
