I hope many read the Doherty modeling as it is both eye opening & huge fudge. The results rest on heroic contact tracing, indeed an addendum is added where presumable Doherty was told to go back & redo everything assuming "optimal" 'test trace isolate & quarantine'. 1/n #auspol Taking the assumptions and modeling used at face value, at 50% vax we would need to go into lockdown harder than NSW is now 75% of the time (273 days/yr), 168 days at 60% and 80 days at 70%. You might say, well 80% is 0%! Well not really:

Saw pretty disturbing message from friend who is a senior ophthalmologist in the UK.
"800 ICU beds and we need 4000. The GPs are closed only Skype phone calls. We are doing emergencies but busy trying to cancel 2000 patients a day we see. 1/many We have 22 anesthetic machines that can be used as respirators we will lose those and then anaesthetists. The anaesthetists were being mutineers yesterday refusing to do any general anaesthetic as it is higher risk. It is chaos.

Got sent this today. Can't vouch for its authenticity. #auspol #ausbiz 1/many

Just got a one hour briefing from a cabinet minister after their full day on Covid-19 with the chief medical officers of aus, uk, USA and Israel and prime minister yesterday. Summary as follows: - 60% of Aussies will be infected

- South Korea is testing 15,000 per day. Mortality rate there is 0.6%. This makes it a bad flu (10X normal flu rate). That’s the expected mortality rate in Australia