Tax Alpha Isn’t Just for Index Funds

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1/ Imagine you manage an ETF that bought $CRCL at IPO at $31. It rips to $300. You want to reduce exposure or exit, but doing so would saddle shareholders with huge capital gains. 2/ Here’s where the ETF structure shines. Through in-kind redemptions, you can remove low-cost-basis positions from the portfolio without triggering a taxable event.

In the spirit of full disclosure, intellectual honesty, posterity's judgment, and rigorous debate, I would like to share my strong belief: I have become personally convinced that Jack Dorsey – CEO of Square and founder of X – is Bitcoin’s founder Satoshi Nakamoto. This is my opinion, not that of VanEck.

The evidence linking Jack to Satoshi is a combination of technical parallels, circumstantial links, patterns (including timing), uncanny coincidences, motive and ability. While not definitive, the breadth of these connections is compelling and worthy of further scrutiny. If true, addressing these questions sooner rather than later could prevent unnecessary uncertainty—especially while Bitcoin is valued at ~2 trillion, rather than, say, 10x higher.

Some have argued that publicizing this suspicion harms Bitcoin or its community. I strongly disagree. Even if Jack does still hold 5.2% of Bitcoin supply, the protocol’s decentralized design ensures it remains beyond any one individual’s control. Transparency about this hypothesis could reduce unnecessary speculation and address market fears surrounding Satoshi’s 1.1M BTC, particularly concerns that these holdings could destabilize the market if suddenly liquidated. For instance, the theory that Satoshi is Paul Le Roux, who remains in prison but is eligible for release in 2032, has fueled worries about such scenarios. If Jack is indeed Satoshi, this is an opportunity for him to take steps to protect his safety, communicate succession and inheritance plans, and provide assurances that align with Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos. Clarity on these points might strengthen Bitcoin’s investment case by building long-term confidence in the system’s resilience.

I hope this post attracts those more talented than I am who can analyze these patterns and strengthen, or refute, the argument. If Satoshi is meant to remain unknown, scrutiny will reveal that as well. I understand this view may provoke strong reactions, but I believe it’s a conversation worth having.

Finally, I want to acknowledge the individual whose work most informed this case: Sean Murray (@Financeguy97), who has compiled substantial, compelling research in recent months. Thanks also to Evan Ratliff, Craig Wright, Chris Concannon, Adam Back, Nathan Frankovitz, and others for input over the years.

For those curious, see the below slides for the body of evidence. Table of contents

In preparation for some more Active Management in VanEck's Bitcoin mining investments and other equities geared to the space, we've begun digging deeper into what makes these stocks move.

🧵 To instruct our data-driven approach to the sector, we calculated the Bitcoin beta for each miner over the past 30 and 360 days, reflecting their stock prices’ sensitivities to Bitcoin’s price changes.

Based on our categorization of the sector, high-beta miners, such as Cleanspark and Marathon Digital, tend to be BTC pure-plays (miners who have not signaled an AI/HPC pivot) and ‘HOLDers’ (miners whose BTC holdings comprise 20%+ of their enterprise value), as their revenues are closely tied to Bitcoin's market value.

On the other end of the BTC beta spectrum, miners like CORZ have invested heavily in providing AI/HPC infrastructure to capitalize on AI’s growing energy demand, reducing their exposure to BTC price fluctuations.

Due to their substantial Bitcoin treasuries, outliers like HUT and HIVE maintain higher BTC betas despite significant investments in GPU-as-a-Service initiatives, taking on hybrid Pivoter/HOLDer strategies.

As the BRICS Summit Kicks Off, Top Lawmakes Are Pushing the Idea that Russian Miners Could Sell Their #Bitcoin to International Buyers, Who Would Use BTC and Other Crypto to Pay for Imports, Effectively Bypassing Western Sanctions.

🧵 Russia’s BitRiver and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) Announced a Partnership for a BRICS-Wide #Bitcoin Mining Initiative
cryptonews.com/news/russias-b…

Legendary Research Broker Bernstein Has Just Published One of its Famed "Black Books" on #Bitcoin!

160 Pages Explaining Why BTC Will Hit $200k by the end of 2025 and How Listed #Bitcoin Miners Will Continue to Consolidate the Industry.
@gautamchhugani 👏 no link available but if y'all keep retweeting i'll post some of the best charts, like this one 👀

Fascinating survey of Central Bankers from the World Gold Council reveals gold-buying plans at record high.

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The percentage of respondents who think their dollar reserves will be "significantly lower" in 5 years more than doubled to 13%. More 70% of respondents think Gold reserves will be "moderately" or "significantly" higher vs only 13% who think "moderately" or "significantly" lower.

Thanks to @Ignites for letting me debunk the argument that #Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value in today's featured op-ed -->


full 🧵⬇️ ignites.com/c/4367104/5675…
"Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value, or so the argument goes among skeptics in the asset management industry.

But a formidable performance track record — including being the top-performing asset of the last decade — and an $800 billion market capitalization achieved without traditional corporate structures challenge this view.

We've done so many client meetings on #Bitcoin recently.
Here are some of the questions we get, and our answers --> What attracted us to the space? Why are we spending resources on the space?
- No other asset class has recouped its bear market round trip as quickly as BTC
- Many equity markets that have peaked and not remade all time highs
- Gold/real assets lineage and use cases for those markets informed our views on BTC/digital assets -- digital gold
- Asymmetric upside, growth asset with scarcity and store of value features
- Bitcoin halving next year, has historically been a bullish time to be involved
- Combined with the ETF approval hopes supporting prices currently

Prediction:
Gary Gensler will leave the SEC after a face-saving victory vs. Ripple in 2023.
10 more crypto predictions for 2023 from @vaneck_us -->
1/ #Bitcoin will test $10-12K in Q1 amid wave of miner bankruptcies, which will mark the low point of crypto winter. Ripple losing its SEC lawsuit (possible in Q1) may coincide with this final downdraft, which would take out nearly the entirety of the post-2020 bull market
2/