1/ I think I figured out why long term price is slowly arcing down: Miner Propensity to HODL (MPH). In 2009-2011 run, MPH was likely very high, as mining costs were extremely low. As mining became more industrialized, the need to sell off supply as the bull progressed increased
2/ In the 2009-2011 days, great sums of Bitcoin were mined and never sold, like Satoshi's coins, for instance. This lead to near vertical price movements as there was nothing counteracting demand. 2011-2013 mining became somewhat more of a competitive business, and MPH decreased.
3/ In 2015-2018 run, mining became very industrialized and MPH decreased again due to increased production costs. This is likely why the China exchange ban HELPED Bitcoin, as it removed the main avenue for Chinese miners to sell supply, enhancing MPH.
1/ Wonder why I keep redrawing the lines? Here's why: a trend is always comprised of 3 waves, an A wave, a B wave, and a C wave. (This isn't EW, just the nature of a "trend" itself.)
2/ The reason a B wave occurs is because of all the buying that occurred in the A wave. All buyers are potential future sellers, and the longer a wave lasts, the more potential for selling can occur. I call this "sell capacity." As a trend rallies, sell capacity grows.
3/ In Bitcoin's case, the ABC model is curved (in log scale), so it looks a bit weird if you're accustomed to diagonal trends for your primary references. But the logic is exactly the same.
1/ If I had the funds, I'd setup a BTC multisig escrow development co and build platform solutions to solve every conceivable performance contract iteration. Different industries have different contract observability and verification needs. I'd tailor platforms for each use-case.
2/ For instance, a freelancer payment platform in BTC needs observability tools like screenshot tracking and timesheet system (for by the hour renumeration), milestone system for fixed price projects, and dispute features with reputation-based third party verification agents.
3/ For international large scale purchases, I'd tailor for each industry platform by approaching highly trusted execs in each field (forestry, oil) to serve as initial verification and arbitration agents. I'd build one for international real estate purchases, commodity purchases.
1/ My full bull case: I really think from a macro standpoint we're just working off the big post S2X bull wave, and now rounding up back into trend. When I look at Crypto charts I constantly see this bowl/rounding pattern for bottoms everywhere. Tops decelerate, bottoms higher.
2/ I've shown how historically corrections/bear markets are just retracements of extension moves. The Feb 5-6 huge wick on BTC marks the completed retracement for me, and the eve retest of that wick confirmed it.
3/ The 2016-2017 bull wave was off the charts powerful, with no real correction of any degree. This correction has only retraced the very top part of the move, and sets us up nicely for the follow-through wave in my mind. Hence why we are "rounding" per the first chart.
1/ I believe that financial product innovation drives market cycles. New methods of access and leverage improve ability to speculate, and if the underlying is bullish, they can dramatically enhance returns. 1920s, for instance, was so powerful due to the introduction of margin.
2/ The 1980s, as well, was so incredibly powerful due to the introduction of futures trading on the S&P 500 in April 1982. Some of the most famous investors/speculators made the bulk of their wealth in the 1980s (Soros, Tudor Jones).
3/ When SP500 futures were introduced in '82, the market fell an abrupt 15% afterwards. Once the new instrument took hold, I feel it was instrumental in the extreme uptrend that ultimately led to the 1987 crash.
1/ WINNING TWICE: One of the most psychologically damaging situations for anyone trying to perform or gain an outcome is the situation of having to "win twice." You think you have it locked up, only to have that snatched from you. Now you need to win again.
2/ The best example of this is the Cubs vs Marlins World Series in 2003. The 6th game, Cubs lead series 3-2, eighth inning Cubs up 3-0. Cubs haven't won a world series since 1908. They basically have this game locked up. Then this happens
3/ After this freak event, the psychology of the Cubs is destroyed. They now need to "win twice," which is overwhelming. Their nervous systems fall apart. They literally cannot field balls or catch anymore. They give up 8 runs that inning, Marlins win, then take World Series.
1/ This is the Gym Theory of Markets. It is a diagram to help identify and explain the groups that act on price in markets (especially BTC). Imagine this as an actual gym, with a line down the middle and 2 doors (both on the sell/cash side of the gym). Imagine the dots are people
2/ People enter the gym first by being in cash (entering through the door and sitting on the sell/cash side). When they move to the buy side, price increases. When those on the buy/hold side move to the sell side, price decreases.
3/ How fast they come through the door and go to the buy side defines the long-term trend of the asset. I would argue Bitcoin has one of the greatest trend velocities in all assets, maybe in history. As well, the buyers have one of the highest "demand to hold" and don't sell.