Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group • Editor of The Boock Report • CNBC Contributor
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Nov 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#Gold thread: The World Gold Council released its Q3 2022 report & while the price languishes, they said "Healthy Q3, driven by stronger consumer & central bank buying, helped ytd demand recover to pre-covid norms. Gold demand (excl otc) in Q3 was 28% higher y/o/y at 1,181 tons.
Ytd demand increased 18% vs same period in 2021, returning to pre-pandemic levels." Central bank buying reached a record high in the Q at "nearly 400 tons." Jewelry demand also was up, increasing by 10% y/o/y
Oct 27, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Due to the new reality for commercial real estate from a sharp rise in interest rates, let's do some math in a thread:
Assume in 2020 that Company A bought a $50mm multi family property in Utopiaville. They weren't that conservative and decided to take on a 3 yr loan with a loan to value ratio of 70% and paid a 5% gross cap rate for it.
Sep 24, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The inflation comments in a thread here from Costco's conference call last night:
"inflationary factors abound: higher labor costs, higher freight costs, higher transportation demand, along with container shortages and port delays, increased demand in certain product categories,
various shortages of everything from computer chips to oils & chemicals, higher commodities prices. It's a lot of fun right now. Some inflationary soundbites, if you will. Price increases on items shipped across oceans, some suppliers or us paying 6x for containers and shipping.
Jun 4, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
A few charts of tech stocks in the late 1990's for those that weren't around and a reminder to those that were:
IOMEGA
JDS UNIPHASE
Aug 31, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
The 10 flaws of 'inflation symmetry' policy
1)Where inflation was in the past should have no bearing on where it should be allowed to go in the future. Is zero inflation one year and 4% the next the new definition of 'price stability' ?
2)Using core PCE to make these decisions is flawed itself because core PCE is weighed down by its heavy concentration of healthcare costs that are mostly priced fixed by the US government via Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement. Use core CPI and policy would be quite different.
May 8, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
I'm trying this again, with proper thread format. Central bank initiated NIRP is poison to a financial system & the dumbest idea in the history of economics.
1)It's a tax. A tax on bank capital housed at a central bank that someone has to eat, either the bank itself or they pass it on to their clients. Taxes aren't stimulative.
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