Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Gold

Most recents (24)

In today’s #MoneyShow #MarketMinute:

#Equities are adding to Friday’s gains in the early going today, while Treasuries, #gold, and silver are selling off. The dollar is flattish while #oil is slightly higher.

On the news front...
The banking sector is catching a reprieve here, and that’s leading to “Risk On” trading across all asset classes. First Citizens Bancshares / $FCNCB is buying $119 billion of #deposits and $72 billion of #loans from failed Silicon Valley Bank.
Meanwhile, the Chairman of Saudi National Bank Ammar Al Khudairy resigned for “personal reasons.” He helped trigger the plunge in shares of Credit Suisse Group AG $CS several days ago.
Read 5 tweets
1/ In your time bestriding the narrow world like a Colossus, you might have heard the term, “bearer asset”. That would be an asset that you take physical possession of - cash or bullion, for example - an asset that is effectively owned by whoever has possession of it
2/ You can transfer it from A to B by just handing it over. Unlike money in the bank, it does not reply on or carry a promise from a third party.

Ownership is not registered, so that makes it vulnerable to theft or loss, but it also means, it is nobody else's liability.
3/ The two main bearer assets in today’s financial marketplace are #gold and #Bitcoin .

Bitcoin is not a physical asset of course. But the technological genius behind it means that it is a “digital bearer asset”. No such thing previously existed.
Read 7 tweets
So this case study, this #gold cap is $30m with due diligence underway by Sprott to finance 90% of the capex, assuming success we would expect a re-rate to around $40-50m cap, dilution to raise $15m over the next 9-18 months would be required for 10% capex and working capital.
67% voted for < $51m cap size, implying post dilution returns of > 9x assuming $2500 spot over the next 3 years.

Those who voted for $25m cap (post 90% financing completion) Vs today's cap of $30m (pre-financing due diligence completion) potential returns > 15x
- failed financing due diligence
- the vein structures are narrow for this deposit making underground mining difficult, we assume this is factored into the DFS

Risk:Return -50% Vs 10-15x
Read 3 tweets
Realities with 75% of nano cap #gold explorers, or potential pre-production plays:

- lifestyle operations for the CEO/chairman
- burning matches, dilution can be 95% prior to achieving much
- timeframes of 1 year become 4 rather quickly
- require huge margin of safety for entry
What sort of margin of safety do we hear you ask?
- Cap < 5% NPV < 30% resource
- Cap < 25% of optimized annual cashflow
- IRR > 100% at $2500 spot
- Insider ownership > 20%
- Independent due diligence on Financing to verify DFS
- Cap/oz < $4
Even with all the above 40% will likely drop over.

Hence ensure one doesn't over pay and have a spread of 5 holdings in the theme.
Read 4 tweets
Another Fed Meeting, another decision based on flawed metrics. One of them is the new CPI. Or shall I say the *New New CPI*?

Because the calculation has been sneakily adjusted again recently, and yes, it matters. Why and how?

Time for an inflation 🧵👇
🧐 Current CPI

First, for those who are new to the whole Fed Shell Game, or if you need a little refresher, a quick review of CPI:

The Consumer Price Index, also known as CPI, is the benchmark for U.S. inflation as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the BLS).
You may have noticed recent controversy about the accuracy of the CPI and whether the BLS is understating inflation

People ask every time a new CPI reading is released: how can the prices of groceries, cars, houses, be so inflated, yet the CPI rises only a fraction of that?
Read 41 tweets
For those not clear/new follows: I made the 2013 analogy in terms of PA in $GDX 1st…
& . We sold producers & only held royalty & JRs. Since, $GDX dropped 40%, so it was the right call.

We've been hedging ever since. Here's specifics/
Reason for royalty $FNV, $RGLD, $WPM its performed significantly better than producers & are immune to many of their problems. Only producer we hold is $NEM.

JRs because lightening strikes anytime. If you had 20 jr's & 19 are -50% last 2 yrs but 1 was snowline, you're breakeven/
Our cash position in our #gold portfolio is typically 10-20%. We use this to add puts when there is risk, then roll profits over to LT positions & avg costs down.

We also use it for calls on $GDX when miners are leading/outperforming. This leverages upside of our LT holdings./
Read 6 tweets
Here is why you should learn about functionality of risk-ON/risk-OFF in #markets no matter what asset class you decide to #trade:

It gives you foundations to good expectations. There is one pool of global capital that moves in and out of the risk offense or risk defense mode. You should know in what mode market is today to begin with and how it impacts your selected ticker of the day in focus.

For example, if you decide to long equity ticker under severe selling pressure like $FRC the risk-ON flows have to cooperate, else your chances of longs working are going to be by default much smaller. The riskier the asset and the more liquid the more you need risk-ON mode.

Read 11 tweets
Market microstructure is so important in trading.

Here’s some brilliant analysis from Kaiko that I’ve summarised.

A must read thread for crypto traders. 👇🏼
Volumes - Amid last weeks broad market rally, #Crypto trade volumes reached their highest level since the FTX collapse.
On 14 March, trade volumes on the 18 most liquid centralised exchanges rose to $51bn, hitting 4-month highs.
Read 14 tweets
Monday Top Crypto News.

Everything you need to know in one short thread…
The new episode of our newsletter was released last night, which includes our take on the current #macro environment.

Read it and sign up here…
Signature Bank’s crypto-related deposits will be returned to customers directly, rather than being taken over by a unit of #NewYork Community #Bancorp under a deal announced Sunday.
Read 10 tweets
In all other circumstances/instruments you'd be pointing at this as a possible monumental breakout with as much as c$2.5k in sight

This week's wickless +6.5% candle (=no sellers ...) is unprecedented in Gold's modern history

Everything above $1.9k is constructive

#Gold #Basel3
A tentative start then and easy to "expect" #Gold to fall to pieces from here but I'm not so sure it's that easy to break down from here ...

It's never managed to be this high and stay above $1,895 the following week so, again, everything above c$1.9k is constructive to my eye.
Read 3 tweets
Gold attempting to BREAKOUT of its second BIGGEST yearly defined base versus SPX.

Possible analog roadmaps with price & time targets.

8000$ in 2034
12000$ in 2033
21000$ in 2030

Overshoot on smaller time frames not included.

#gold #xauusd #spx #fintwit #inflation #recession
A couple of key observations.

You can't even see #gold's 2020 rally vs #spx, simply a wick, with a yearly close back below 0.50.

Also, note those extremely fast moves out of the gate, once yearly breakout is confirmed.
Major error on this #gold versus #spx chart...

I forgot the rocket ships!
Read 3 tweets
Time to talk about #gold. Gold does well during destabilizing deflations/depressions as real interest rates fall. It is a time tested (longest used currency) store of value (supply grows slowly due to mining activity). Gold is likely to burst to new all time highs as Fed panics.
One can physically own gold (always advised) or can own a fund that can be redeemed in gold (eg $PHYS ) or own precious metal streamers (eg $FNV) or own miners. Streamers are expensive now though and miners as a whole have a very bad LT return track record: Image
I currently preferred jr miners w/ a gold component because 1) the entire space is bombed out & dirt cheap, 2) super inefficient markets, 3) insane upside leverage if pick correctly, 4) company specific catalysts separate from gold bull market, 5) also get #copper bull.
Read 5 tweets
Continues to blow my mind how ST people are. #gold now very overbought/extended while up 1.5% w/#silver & $GDX down 7% last 6 wks.

Puts far from getting "crushed" despite this move. Not seeing any reason to exit or go long, based on my time horizon.

And #FOMC next wk. Patience/ Image
Meantime, I'll let the gold bugs gloat at my expense. Lord knows they don't get to do it often. Have a few days of fun amidst last 2yrs of losses.

Some context, $GDX/ $GLD couldn't make a close above where it was just 2 days ago. 1 day is not a trend, zoom out & look at the avg/ Image
What I see is panic buying in #gold, the safe haven. #silver & $GDX feels like all short covering B4 weekend. Short covering is great ST, but will it carry over to new longs buying at these levels, fade quickly?

Have fun over ydays ST pennies. I'm thinking medium term dollars/
Read 4 tweets
#Biden backs strength of #banking system after collapse of #SVB, #SignatureBank | Mar 13
- When fed auths bailed out depositors in insolvent lenders SVB (NASDAQ:SIVB) and #SignatureBank on Monday,
Joe sought to reassure the public Image
#Ukraine-#BanderasBox opened.
#RAND Co | Jan 25
- There is an urgent need for #resources to flow into the national econ, especially the #banking system. Only European countries bound by #EU and #NATO commitments will be able to provide them
#SVB #SignatureBank #BanderasBox.
#Rand Co | Jan 25
- The key objective is to #divide #EU by placing #UsefulIdiots in political positions in order to stop #Russian #energy supplies from reaching the continent
- The entire #EU #economy will #collapse
Read 38 tweets
#Bitcoin vs #Gold – Let’s Settle the Debate

1/ What Makes Gold Valuable?

A lot of people relate the concept of Bitcoin to Gold, as a store of value.

Have you ever wondered, what makes Gold valuable? Why Gold is a store of value?

Let’s have a detailed view of factors that give Gold its value.
🪙 In ancient times, our ancestors wanted a medium of exchange, a currency, mainly coins. They were only left with iron, copper, lead, silver, gold, palladium, platinum, and aluminum because the rest of the elements are gases and reactive elements.
Read 17 tweets
Many have asked me on preparation and my opinions about #gold , #stocks , #Cash and #banks .

We have presented these and preparation guidelines in the following reports, which will continue next week.

Our latest forecasts. 👇
The fundamental thing to understand, concerning preparation, is how prices of different assets are likely to behave in the coming crisis.

In this report, we present historical patterns of key assets classes during crises.
As a historical 'appendix' we also report the best performing stocks during and after the GFC and the Great Depression. (Free.)
Read 10 tweets
🗓 Daily #Macro & Market Recap 📰 Let's dive into a quick thread recapping some of today's market moving events 🗞, data 📝, & charts 📈📉 for Friday (03/03/23)… 🧵/👇🏼

$SPY $SPX ⬆️✅
$QQQ $NDX ⬆️✅
$DIA $DJIA ⬆️✅
$IWM $RUT ⬆️✅

#stocks #StockMarket #bonds #macro
1/🧵 Daily #StockMarket Sector Performance:

🍽 $XLP ⬆️✅
🏥 $XLV ⬆️✅
🏘 $XLRE ⬆️✅
📡 $XLC ⬆️✅
🛢 $XLE ⬆️✅
🏭 $XLI ⬆️✅
🤖 $XLK ⬆️✅
🏨 $XLY ⬆️✅
🏦 $XLF ⬆️✅
🪵 $XLB ⬆️✅
⚡️ $XLU ⬆️✅
2/🧵 Daily 🇺🇸 🏦 Treasury Market & Currency Performance: 💵💴💶💷

$DXY ⬆️✅
$TLT ⬆️✅
$HYG ⬆️✅
3mo ⬆️✅
2yr ⬇️🔻
10yr ⬆️✅
30yr ⬆️✅

#bonds #interestrates #Currencies #macro
Read 4 tweets
Thought of the day: Return compounding is all about timeframes in #cyclicals, 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years with 1-2 year waiting between reinvestment = 1000x over 17-19 years. Are you formulating your compounding plan?
Our working example:

$BTU from $1.21 = 13x < 30 months

deployed into:

$IREN from $1.32 = expect 10x over 48 months

deployed into:

Unknown at this time = 8x

Total return = >1000x
Documented is previous tweets
Read 7 tweets
A bear market can be a confusing and challenging time for #CryptoInvestor. In this thread, we'll explore the definition of a #bearmarket in the crypto world and how to invest during one. $BTC $ETH $QUACK #Cryptos

🧵👇 Image
1/10 Definition: A bear market in crypto is a period of declining crypto prices, typically lasting several months to a few years. It's called a "bear market" because bears tend to attack downward. $QUACK
2/10 Why do bear markets happen in crypto? Bear markets in crypto are often triggered by economic downturns, market corrections, or negative news and sentiment. $QUACK
Read 12 tweets
भूतानमध्ये भारतीयांना ड्युटी फ्री सोनं खरेदी करता येणार आहे. भारतात सध्या सोनं ५७ हजारांच्या आसपास आहे तर भुतानमध्ये ४० हजारांच्या आसपास. #म #मराठी #gold
परंतू यासाठी भूतान सरकारने दोन अटी ठेवल्या आहेत. पहिली अट म्हणजे भारतीयांना भूतानमध्ये सस्टेनेबल डेव्हलपमेंट फी अर्थात एसडीएफ द्यावी लागणार आहे. जी १२०० रुपये असेल.
#म #मराठी #gold
दुसरी अट म्हणजे तुम्हाला भूतान सरकारच्या टुरिझम डिपार्टमेंटने सर्टिफाय केलेल्या हॅाटेलमध्ये एक रात्र राहावे लागेल. #म #मराठी #gold
Read 6 tweets
Almost every millennial aspires to retire early. But most of the time, this goal seems almost impossible to achieve.

Well, let us tell you... it's NOT impossible! Welcome to the world of FIRE! (1/n)

#financialplanning #financialgoals #retireearly #thread
So, what is FIRE?

FIRE stands for Financial Independence Retire Early and it's all about achieving financial freedom so that you can retire early and live life on your own terms. (2/n)

#financialindependence #financialfreedom #retirementplanning
Can you achieve FIRE in India?

Yes, you can!

Firstly, you need to focus on your Savings Rate (SR). This means cutting back on unnecessary expenses and living below your means.

A high SR is key to achieving financial independence. (3/n)

#saving #investing #FinancialFreedom
Read 12 tweets
Durch das #Nachrichtenfasten bis Ostern bin ich gezwungen, mich auf mich selbst, meine #Familie und mein #Business zu konzentrieren.

Die Gedanken werden ruhiger und irren nicht mehr von Sensation zu Skandal hin und her. Ich denke viel (1/21)
mehr darüber nach, was denn für mich und meine Familie wichtig ist.

Außerdem höre ich wieder Hörbücher, anstatt dass ich mir neben allerlei alltäglichen Tätigkeiten wie Kochen, Aufräumen und Autofahren YouTube-Videos anhöre. So bin ich schon wieder ein gutes Stück (2/21)
weitergekommen bei dem sehr wichtigen Hörbuch »Der Bitcoin-Standard«.

Affiliate-Link zum Hörbuch:

Die Perspektive dieses Buches ist auch eine sehr langfristige, und das ist es auch, was ich nun ohne Nachrichten immer mehr spüre: Die langfristige (3/21)
Read 21 tweets
Whether you like it or not, we're in an #economic #reset & nothing can stop it

The #macro chart of the #USA #economy reveals a crucial insight everyone should pay attention to

US #GDP & M2 money supply in #USD tn

Read on...

#tradingview chart👉

1/🧵 Image
Untill 2011, money supply M2 consistently remained below 60% of #GDP

#Growth in M2 kept pace with GDP growth

Enabling low #inflation secular growth #economy

Despite popular #fintwit narrative, even GFC of 2008 did not upset M2 GDP⚖️balance

This is what GFC did...

2/🧵 Image
Average #GDP growth was 4% but M2 grew at 6%

Since 1960, this is the 1st time M2 increased faster than GDP

Still in 2011, M2 was less than historical average 60% of GDP

The story gets interesting for #investor #Traders #students #everyone

Then came the opportunity...

3/🧵 Image
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1/6 Who decides #gold rates in India?
A thread👇
2/6 In India, Gold prices are determined largely through an informal process and there is no such entity dominating the market.
The Indian Bullion Jewellers Association (@IBJA1919) plays a key role in determining daily Gold rates in India.
3/6 #ibja members include the biggest gold dealers in the country.
In India, most of the Gold is primarily imported by banks. Thus, import duties are an important factor in determining gold prices.
Read 6 tweets

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