After 6 years of research and analyzing nearly 500 million words from the Congressional Record, Hijacking the Agenda (@Cmwitko, @ProfNateKelly, @prof_jmorgan, & @pete_enns) is now out: amazon.com/Hijacking-Agen… (1/5) Thanks so much to @Jacob_S_Hacker @ScienceYale, Paul Pierson @UCBerkeley, and Larry Bartels @VandyPoliSci for your supportive words‼! (2/5)

Can non-probability sampling compete with RDD and other probability polls? In the 2020 election, yes -- in fact, they did better!

New research with @jake_rothschild @3Streamsblog: medium.com/3streams/revis… (a short thread) We looked at every national poll in the @FiveThirtyEight 2020 forecast in the last 2 months of the election. After coding each sampling method, we found that non-probability polls had less overall error than RDD/other probability methods.

2020 Election Forecast with @JuliusLagodny @cornellgov forthcoming in @ps_polisci: about 6-in-10 chance #BidenHarris win the Electoral College, about 1/5 chance #TrumpPence get exactly 270 EC votes. (1/4) Our state-by-state forecast, Dark blue=expected Dem win, Light red=expected Rep win; distributions centered around 50% could go either way; distribution height =Electoral College importance. (2/4)