Contrarian take on China's critical materials dominance using the Ga/Ge ban as a case study.

Key point: China's export controls on Gallium and Germanium are ineffective. If anything, China is removing the overcapacity it created through these restrictions. Here's why. 🧵 On December 3, 2024, China responded to the latest round of American export controls on its semiconductor industry by strengthening export controls on gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials with immediate effect.

Don’t let numbers fool you. This theme has spawned a new genre of books, starting with Darrell Huff’s 1954 classic How to Lie with Statistics. And yet, governments continue to insult our intelligence by using the same tropes repeatedly. 🧵 What’s worse is that they often succeed. So let’s look at some favourite number-chicanery tools used by different Indian governments. If I've missed out on a strategy, please send a reply. Let's make a comprehensive list.

#ONOE (One Nation One Election) is again in the news. A few thoughts. #thread The high-committee report does manage to assuage some concerns about the conduct of simultaneous elections, but it doesn’t try to anticipate the long-term unintended effects.

The question Aap Hamaare Hain Kaun, Russia? has gained renewed importance. Here are three ways of looking at this issue. #thread 1/n The choice for India should be obvious. If it has to pick between the US and Russia, the convergence with the US on all three parameters — interests, values, and capacities — far outweighs Russia’s importance to India.

Yet, three objections persist.

Experienced a new fraud on Central Bengaluru roads. Sharing it here so that you don't fall victim to it. @btppubliceye @BlrCityPolice @blrcitytraffic On Sunday (July 2), we were waiting for the traffic signal to turn green on the Queens Road signal, turning towards Alliance Francaise. After turning, one guy on an Activa stopped us aggressively and started accusing us that our car had gone over his leg.

I fear that some of us in India might be deriving the wrong lesson from recent US export controls on Chinese semiconductor companies. #thread The most commonly regurgitated lesson seems to be: if the US can do this to China, it can also do that to us. So India must become more atmanirbhar by domesticing global supply chains (GSCs). Hence, double down on PLIs.

This would be a counter-productive move. We must stand up to China, but such moves are likely to hurt Indians more than the CCP. I hope the government doesn't go through with it.
straitstimes.com/asia/south-asi… If the objective is indigenisation, shielding domestic companies this way doesn't work. India’s domestic market alone (projected to be 8.8% of the global market in FY26) is insufficient to attract more manufacturing here.

Significant developments in the world of semiconductor geopolitics this week. Not just the Taiwan angle, but there's a lot more. A #thread There are calls by a few US Senators to include the Chinese memory maker YMTC on the Entity List. This would be an escalation in the use of export controls. nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-…

As a Mandarin language student, I recoil in horror when Chinese names are articulated incorrectly. I think we should know our strategic adversaries well enough to pronounce their leaders' names precisely. #thread So this is a running thread to capture common mistakes. Mandarin has tones that are difficult to capture in Indian languages, so my versions won't be perfect. Neither am I a linguist. So be warned.

IMO, the Agnipath debate has three meta-lessons for public policy. #thread Lesson 1: data secrecy is the enemy of public policy. I'll illustrate this with an example.

A lot of “see, this is what happens when you have trade and tech interdependence with the West. Imagine if the West were to use the same instruments against India in the future. Shouldn’t we decouple before they do this to us?” My three counter-points on this issue #thread For those who seek economic and technological self-sufficiency for India, this war has come at the right time to bolster their case for everything from data localisation, domestic social media platforms to SWIFT alternatives and de-dollarisation.

There are three reasons I've heard in support of the argument "India should tilt towards Russia".

I have objections to all three of them.

#thread Argument 1: A strong relationship with Russia is necessary for India’s strategic autonomy. Without this partnership, the fear is that India will become a mere pawn in the hands of the US.

Spot the policyWTF in this image. The yellow circles mark erstwhile legal yet empty advertisement holdings. The red circles mark the illegal, haphazard but thriving advertisement hoardings. Why so?

Regarding the news "PM Modi calls upon private firms to enter medical education sector in big way".

Good to understand why this hasn't happened until now. #thread One, unreasonable restrictions for setting up medical colleges.

Hearing a lot of buzz on Quad, semiconductors, and tech collaboration ahead of the first in-person summit later this week. A #thread with 10 key ideas on this theme. Echoes some writings by @HayleyChanner @MartijnRasser @MohanCRaja @jen_jackett & others. Idea #1: Multilateralism is a necessity rather than a choice on high tech collaboration.

Reason: high-tech industries today rely on extensive cross-border movements of intermediate products, talent, & IP. Erstwhile 'national' industries are now global supply chains.

Quite amusing that the north-south debate over public finances has been taking place with complete disregard to Public Finance theory itself. Guess it shouldn't be surprising but let me attempt anyways.. #thread First of all, I'm no expert in the subject. Much of what I know comes from a few textbooks and by listening to Gurus like Dr M Govinda Rao. All mistakes are my own and I'll be happy to learn if I'm going wrong somewhere.