Paul Stronski Profile picture
Dad, disabled advocate, dog lover, @CarnegieEndow, GU prof; Russia/China/Eurasia; rare disease; @NSC44; Stanford alum; NYer DM me vs quoting my tweets. He/him
Feb 1, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
As dad of disabled child, this breaks my heart. We battle inaccessibility too. I've carried my daughter up plane stairs, on my back across US natl park, into traffic when COVID-era restaurants take up whole sidewalk. But, never in a children's hospital1/5 rus.ozodlik.org/a/31669324.html Uzbekistan ratified the UN Convention on Rights of People with Disability in 2021. Doing so was an achievement. At signing, it pledged to align its laws to ensure human rights of disabled 2/5 dilmurad.me/uzbekistan-rat…
Oct 28, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
Thread: Russia is experiencing yet another COVID surge, due to toxic combo of poor top-down messaging, low vaccination rate, lax adherence to enhanced public health measures and mistrust in authorities 1/6 carnegieendowment.org/2021/10/28/rus… via @CarnegieEndow Putin is clearly part of the problem. He's been aloof and skirting responsibility since pandemic started, like many other heads of states (esp. autocrats). But Putin system often struggles to function without his direct participation. 2/6
Sep 27, 2021 13 tweets 5 min read
Thread: Its a year since the start of the 2020 conflict in Nagorny-Karabakh. Armenians & Azerbaijanis today are commemorating and honoring dead. But region is undergoing both internal and external shifts eurasianet.org/armenia-azerba… 1/13 Despite shows of unity in both countries, there are numerous fractures in each. Az first: war had rally around flag impact for Aliyevs; But, COVID, shifting gas markets, inflation dented Az economy; growth forecast bleak vis-a-vis many neighbors. 2/13 adb.org/countries/azer…
Aug 5, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read
Thread: In 2020, Moscow hailed Sputnik V as the answer to the global health crisis. A year later, Russia’s Sputnik is backfiring, endangering average Russians & complicating other countries’ pandemic response 1/7 carnegieendowment.org/2021/08/03/rus… Sputnik’s developers rushed through trials & cut corners to be first in the world, then seen as big achievement over its Western counterparts. Sadly, the rush led people to lose trust in it, a problem that lingers today with devastating consequences, 2/7 nytimes.com/2021/06/30/wor…
Aug 3, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read
Thread: Despite all the talk about Russian vaccine diplomacy, it hasn't been all that successful. In our latest, @grace_kier1 & I analyze Russia's production/supply difficulties, inflated costs & Russian's lack of trust in Sputnik V 1/10 carnegieendowment.org/2021/08/03/rus… Sputnik vaccine is an essential part of the global pandemic response; its cheap and seems effective, but its developers cut corners in trials and haven't been fully transparent in the data they shares. This raised questions about efficacy & safety 2/10 themoscowtimes.com/2021/05/13/in-…
Jul 27, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
Thread: Economic and investment ties are growing between the UAE and Armenia. This is the latest news: a large UAE investment in solar energy come, on heels of investment in aviation sector 1/4 eurasianet.org/armenia-to-bui… Air Arabia and Armenian National Interest Fund announced a joint venture just 10 days ago on a joint venture to stand up a new Armenian airlines 2/4 english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2021…
Jun 28, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read
THREAD: How much power does Russia actually wield in the Eastern Mediterranean?

In a new paper I argue that Russia has relatively modest influence, but has been successful at using inroads into Turkey, Greece & Cyprus to drive wedges in the West1/10

carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/30/dif… Russia has good reason to cultivate its interests these states: all are potential avenues for Moscow to influence Western policy, develop economic and political relationships, and affirm Russia's role as a regional player. Overview of Russia in Med 2/10

carnegieeurope.eu/2021/06/08/rus…
May 17, 2021 13 tweets 6 min read
Thread: What does Russia's chairing the Arctic Council mean for the Arctic region? Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky and I assess Russia’s Arctic ambitions in this @CarnegieEndow paper 1/12
carnegieendowment.org/2021/03/29/rus… Bellicose statements about the Arctic are common from Russian officials, but complicate Arctic Council's long history of cooperation and Moscow’s own pledges to continue that cooperative approach. 2/12
themoscowtimes.com/2021/05/17/rus…
Mar 30, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read
THREAD Is there more to the Kremlin’s ambitions in the Arctic than its recent photo ops, military build-up and oil and gas exploration efforts? Eugene Rumer, Richard Sokolsky & I have published a new critical assessment. 1/10 carnegieendowment.org/2021/03/29/rus… Despite great power competition talk, there are big gaps btwn Russia’s oversized goals & ability to realize them. Moscow will pursue big-ticket energy/military projects in Arctic, but drivers behind its activities aren’t recognized clearly enough. 2/10
thearcticinstitute.org/wp-content/upl…
Oct 20, 2020 9 tweets 3 min read
Thread: So much for Trump's deal making skills. He touted this shipment as high-quality stuff, but it was gas masks, cleaning supplies & these ventilators. Nobody at WH through about basic issues (voltage, safety, utility) when negotiating the deal1/9 rferl.org/a/u-s-reported… If you recall, US & Russia got into a tit-for-tat with Trump under criticism for falling for a Russian propaganda ploy. Pompeo quickly pulled back and said it wasn't aid, but a commercial deal negotiated by Trump. 2/9 themoscowtimes.com/2020/04/02/who…
Sep 28, 2020 12 tweets 4 min read
Thread: Latest round of fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh is deeply troubling. It is occurring at a time when world has been distracted - by COVID, Belarus, US elections. But, war mongering and mil preparations have been ongoing 1/12.eurasianet.org/new-armenia-az… Full-scale conflict certainly looks possible. Unlike in July skirmish on Az/Ar border, there are no signs of a pullback of forces. War sentiment is high and both countries declared martial law 2/12 ft.com/content/4f7cd4…
Jul 15, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read
THREAD: War--what is it good for? It is unclear who initiated this week’s fighting between Armenia & Azerbaijan. It’s been the bloodiest since 2016 war, but exposes worrying trends in both countries far beyond the front lines.1/8 msn.com/en-xl/news/oth… Let’s start with Armenia because it’s easier. Political polarization remains high with recent criticism of PM Pashiniyan’s COVID response. Armenia has been hard hit by pandemic, causing lots of economic & social pain. This was two weeks ago 2/8 azatutyun.am/a/30703087.html
Jul 14, 2020 10 tweets 4 min read
Thread: Deadly fighting along the Armenian/Azerbaijani border. Area is heavily fortified and clashes have occurred there in the past. But past few days have been bloodiest since 2016 war. 1/10 thetelegraph.com/news/article/A… It remains unclear who started it. What's clear is that both sides blame each other. Here is Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev: 2/10 menafn.com/1100475599/Pre…
Jul 8, 2020 12 tweets 4 min read
THREAD: The Trump administration’s decision to push foreign students out of US if colleges continue online learning is cruel and misguided in so many ways. It also has long-term negative impacts on our economy and undermines US soft power. 1/11 forbes.com/sites/stuartan… The economic case is clear: more than one million international students at U.S. colleges and universities contributed $41 billion to the U.S. economy and supported about 500K jobs last year 2/11
nafsa.org/about/about-na…
Jun 15, 2020 10 tweets 6 min read
THREAD: Many in the West believe that dire economic impacts of the pandemic and oil market crash will suppress Putin’s appetite for foreign intervention. That view seems misguided if one looks through the lens of Russia’s deployment of #PMCs. 1/10 carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/02/imp… Private military companies (PMCs), such as #Wagner, have emerged as a cornerstone of the #Kremlin’s off-the-books pursuit of an activist foreign policy agenda. They are a low-cost, low-risk, and deniable tool of power projection. 2/10 carnegieendowment.org/2019/07/08/put…
May 18, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read
Thread: Georgian Dream has many flaws with Anaklia sending message to US stakeholders; but allegations of being Russia's puppet govt are overblown. Georgia continued to grow closer to west since Georgian Dream took power. 1/7 eurasianet.org/us-lawmakers-c… Some of the biggest achievements in expanding US-Georgian & EU-Georgian ties took place in last five years. Here's a big one. 2/7 defensenews.com/home/2015/08/2…
May 14, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read
Thread: So much for Tajikistan having no COVID cases. They went from zero to now 907 in just two weeks, essentially because government irresponsibly ignored and denied presence of virus.This willingly put innocent lives at risk. 1/6 rus.ozodi.org/a/30612066.html The above report claims 4299 people are in hospitals under doctor's supervision, which suggests country is behind in COVID-19 testing & suspected cases are higher. If a good chunk of those people test positive. Tajikistan will turn out to be one of hardest hit in FSU 2/6
Apr 16, 2020 13 tweets 4 min read
Thread: Georgia has done a lot right when it comes to COVID, which is clearly seen in its relatively low infections and death rates. That is why this boggles my mind: 1/13 eurasianet.org/georgias-night… I hate to say it, but it remind me more of the irresponsible behavior of Tajikistan, where everyone could see a train wreck coming when the government went ahead with mass gatherings, like this one to celebrate the Rahmon regime 2/13 eurasianet.org/tajikistan-fea…
Mar 5, 2020 11 tweets 4 min read
Thread: Should US consider following UK lead in pushing through unexplained wealth regulations. There’s lot of shady money in US real estate market. 1/10 rferl.org/a/armani-desig… Here is an early test of the UK’s unexplained wealth ordinance. Who drops $783,000 at Harrods in a single day? 2/10 abcnews.go.com/International/…
Mar 3, 2020 9 tweets 4 min read
Thread: Tajikistan's health care system likely unable to respond to a COVID-19 outbreak. So, I understand why they did this, but banning citizens from countries with cases likely won't stop virus spread & highlights lack of deep thought/preparation. 1/9 thediplomat.com/2020/03/tajiki… US citizens & many Euros banned, as are citizens from places with just a few cases, but Russians aren't. There's many more travelers btwn Russia & Tajikistan than US/EU and Tajkistan. 2/9 bit.ly/2PMswGe
Feb 24, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read
Thread: Let me get this right. Kazakhstan declares its candidacy for UN Human Rights Council two days after rounding up 100+ protesters & civic activists? 1/6 neweurope.eu/article/kazakh… This is after detaining several opposition leaders last week, and curbing internet & cell phone access over weekend. 2/6 rferl.org/a/kazakh-activ…