What might an AI-mediated information ecosystem look like?

Shuwei Fang @OpenSociety & @StructStories asked for scenarios. Mine, on interplay btw AI pragmatism, AI experimentalism, & AI incrementalism, draws on @risj_oxford research & more

Read here 1/14reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/how-news-… My starting point? Public uptake will be one of the most important driving forces shaping the AI-mediated information ecosystem and, by extension, journalism & news media’s place in it. Demand is sometimes overlooked in discussions that tend to focus on actors on supply side 2/14

AI cannot reliably identify false news (let alone lies), despite what sales reps and boosters may claim. Too many false positives, false negatives, issues of bias, (let alone perceiving "entire meanings")

And governments are poorly placed to this work
1/4 ekathimerini.com/news/1232467/d…
Because so much of the most potentially consequential misinfo, including false news and lies, is fundamentally political, there is real and perceived conflict of interests when govs' want to play role as arbiters of truth.

This is even more pronounced in low-trust contexts. 2/4

"Avoiding the News: Reluctant Audiences for Journalism"

In book w/@BenjaminToff and @ruthiepalmer we ask why, in a world of abundant supply and unprecedented ease of access, millions of people avoid news

More from publisher @columbiaUP here

And in🧵 1/9 cup.columbia.edu/book/avoiding-…
The social contract btw journalism and much of the public is fraying - news use is declining, interest in news down, avoidance widespread.

Based on surveys and 100+ interviews w/consistent news avoiders, we look at why, and what it means when people live largely without news 2/9

Misinformation often comes from the top, including parts of the political elite

I wrote for the @FT about why I think we need to focus squarely on this as we head into a big election year

A few links in 🧵 below to evidence that has informed my view
1/7ft.com/content/5da527… First, misinfo often comes from the top. Multiple studies have documented political actors' role, e.g @YBenkler et al , @jonathan_c_ong and @RossTapsell , @NeelanjanSircar and more (look at a history book!) 2/7global.oup.com/academic/produ…
doi.org/10.1080/012929…
theindiaforum.in/article/disinf…

Journalists tend to "regard the statement "X said A" as a "fact," even if "A" is false." (See e.g. 'dirty bomb', '102 MPs')

Starting my remarks at #DISINFO2022 on why news media sometimes can end up disseminating disinfo with a quote from Gaye Tuchman journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…  1/6 Beyond inadverdently disseminating disinfo bcs of business-as-usual editorial practices, there are also parts of the media (e.g. some pundits, broadcast hosts) who are parts of what @sobieraj called "outrage industry" - even when working for news media global.oup.com/academic/produ…  2/6

Trust in news: the good, the bad, and the ugly - spoke about @risj_oxford Trust in News Project at #WNMC22

The GOOD news, from publishers' POV, is the "trust gap" between news in general and news on various platforms - news media stand out from just "stuff on the internet" 1/7 BAD news, in already difficult context facing political attacks, competition from platforms, & much more, is that negative perceptions are very widespread. Half or more of survey respondents say they think journalists try to manipulate the public to serve powerful politicians 2/7

2022 Digital News Report out now. A huge effort by an amazing team that I'm proud to be part of.

We cover 46 markets on six continents, accounting for more than half of the world's population.

Full report reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-r…
Follow #DNR22

And a few highlights in thread 1/9 A growing number of news media willing to embrace digital and able to offer distinct journalism in an incredibly competitive marketplace do well by doing good. But many struggle in an unforgiving winner-takes-most online environment, for example when it comes to subscriptions 2/9

"The Power of Platforms: Shaping Media and Society"

My new OUP book with @sarahsoutlook

Our core argument is that the power of platforms is deeply relational and based on ability to attract end users and partners like publishers

Book here: global.oup.com/academic/produ…
More in🧵 1/9 Platforms do not control the means of production, but the means of connection, and they are powerless without partners

To understand their power we need to understand both reservations partners have and why they often embrace platforms nonetheless, continue to work with them 2/9

Question of what scale+scope of public service media is right, given risk of crowding out, popped up again. For citizens to decide, but research might be useful

@annikasehl et al find "little to no support for the crowding out argument" in 28 markets journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/02… 1/4 For news specifically, @richrdfletcher and I found "no significant negative association between using public service news and paying for online news or expressing a willingness to pay for online news" using survey data from six countries tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 2/4

Will try to read a recently published piece of media/communications research every week and tweet about it on this thread. 2021/2022 principles same as last year (see thread below) - picked this up from @priyalalista and like her hope to broaden my horizons and promote good work.

https://twitter.com/rasmus_kleis/status/1304468894053269505

"First, the source of the misleading information was linked to the ruling dispensation ... Second, the target [was] a critic of the government ... Third, the information was legitimised by mainstream media" @NeelanjanSircar writes in penetrating case study theindiaforum.in/article/disinf…

"Mainstream media spreads fake news". Provocative blog post, but important to recognize it summarizes a lot of empirical research by different teams using different methods and often identifying news media as key part of information disorder problems iffy.news/2021/mainstrea… 1/9 Nothing in that research absolves platforms+politicians from their share of responsibility

Still, lots of studies E.g. @_JenAllen "origins of public misinformedness and polarization are more likely to lie in the content of ordinary news [than] fakery" advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/14/e… 2/9

Fighting misinformation in evidence-based ways requires paying attention to both what might be effective, and what the public sees as credible. My talk at @STGEUI et al Fighting Misinformation Online Summit 2021 today here , a few slides in thread 1/4 First, across 20 EU countries covered in our 2021 @risj_oxford Digital News Report, 53% (!) of internet users say they are concerned about what is real and fake when it comes to news on the internet, so very widespread concern. 2/4

Interested in research on misinformation and trust in media? Here some of the work I drew on today -

1) What is mis- and disinformation? @dfreelon and @cfwells wrote this article tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… adopting EU HLG report definition offered here tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 1/5

https://twitter.com/herrhorn/status/1432602721522171905

2) Where is misinformation coming from? In addition to platforms such as Facebook, YouTube etc increasingly, scholars focus on intersection between politics and media (see @YBenkler et al) oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/o… and identity (see @madhavi_reddi et al) doi.org/10.1177/146144… 2/5

2021 Digital News Report out now. So proud to be part of this teamwork

We cover 46 markets that account for more than half of world's population, including six new countries in the Global South

Full report reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-r…
Follow #DNR21
And a few highlights in thread 1/9 Trust in the news has grown, on average, by six percentage points in wake of Coronavirus pandemic.

Across 46 markets, 44% say they trust most news most of the time (back to 2018-levels).

No similar growth for news on e.g social means the "trust gap" with platforms has grown 2/9

Do we need a "New Deal" for journalism? @Forum_InfoD and its chair @cdeloire from @RSF_inter say we do and new report from the Forum looks at policy options - I was honored to chair working group providing input to the report.

Report: informationdemocracy.org/wp-content/upl…

Highlights in🧵1/19 In my foreword, I write "if governments want to do more than talk about the value of journalism, and actually help [those] who are leading on forging new ways forward for the profession and the industry, they will need to step up and take real action" 2/19 rasmuskleisnielsen.net/2021/06/16/les…

June 23, we publish the 2021 @risj_oxford Digital News Report by @nicnewman @richrdfletcher et al, covering 46 markets accounting for more than half of the world's population.

Follow #DNR21 and join one of 6 launch events.

Details in thread and here reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/risj-review/di… 1/7 🇪🇺 Wednesday June 23 we'll host a launch event focused on Europe.

A presentation by @nicnewman will be followed by a discussion chaired by @EdWilliamsUK, featuring @khalafroula from @FT, @rlloret from @eldiarioes, @NajaNielsen2 from @BBCNews and @foederlschmid from @SZ 2/7

What should I watch from the cornucopia that is the #ica21 program? In this thread some things that caught my eye, suggestions welcome.

"Blue Sky Workshop: Reconceptualising Freedom of Expression: Developing an Agenda for Research" w/
@cheriangeorge et al ica2021.cadmore.media/Title/97f91716… The #ica_gcsc panel "International Collaborations Around COVID-19 Research in Africa During a Pandemic: Struggles With Theory and Method" with Radhika Gajjala et al looks interesting ica2021.cadmore.media/Title/29b6af8f…

#infodemic, one year on. News orgs are the most widely used source of information about coronavirus and have become even more central because-while overall reach has declined compared to earlier in the pandemic-reach of other sources has declined more. reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/ongoing-infode… 1/9 Trust in news orgs declined by an average of 8 percentage points and trust in national governments has declined by average of 13pp. In most countries covered, national health authorities, global health authorities, and scientists+doctors+experts remain highly+broadly trusted 2/9

Ask scientists about peer review, and you’ll get… a lot of things. Boundary work (the institution grounds all scholarship), appreciation (collegial quality control=more rigorous work), and many dark sides (ie it's unreliable, unfair, unpaid, unequal, and done by #reviewer2) 1/19 Let me start here-I've internalized the boundary work. I believe in peer review, for all its imperfections. I think it is among things setting science apart. I've also spend lots of time on it, including dealing with 600+ manuscripts as journal editor, based on ~1000 reviews 2/19

US Congress yesterday hosted hearing on disinformation & extremism in the media

Journalists should want to interrogate these issue

As @farai writes as"we are questioning all the systems of society, journalism cannot be too prideful to examine itself" faraic.medium.com/its-bigger-tha… 1/5 One place to start is this (scathing) article: "What is being called our post-truth era [illustrates] the racial amnesia that plagues much of our contemporary post-truth criticism" in light of how e.g. media and politics often represent many minorities doi.org/10.1080/147914… 2/5

Talked democratic creative destruction, filter bubbles, polarization, business of news, and media policy with @EvelynDouek and @QJurecic on the great @lawfareblog podcast - some links to underlying @risj_oxford in thread below

lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcas… 1/6 Here @dragz and I on “democratic creative destruction” challenging incumbent institutions, creates new ones, and in many ways empower individuals while also leaving both individuals & institutions increasingly dependent on large US-based tech companies cambridge.org/core/books/soc… 2/6