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R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
R. Daniel Kelemen
@rdanielkelemen
McCourt Chair at @McCourtSchool of Public Policy at @Georgetown. Non-Resident Senior Associate @CSIS. Life Member @CFR_org
8 subscribers
Dec 13, 2022 • 13 tweets • 7 min read
What should we make of deal today in @EUCouncil on 🇪🇺 funding for Orbán autocracy? In short, while the €6.3bn suspended (only around 18% of what Hungary gets from EU budget) is far less than what was legally justified, the fact anything was suspended is a victory. Quick🧵👇 First let's clarify figures. Most have been fooled by @EU_Commission's talk of 65% funds suspension or @EUCouncil's agreement today on 55%. But that was 65% (or 55%) of only 3 specific funds, NOT 65% or 55% of the total. Focus on the denominator my friends.
Dec 8, 2022 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Want to understand EU's failure to address autocracy crisis? Read my new @JEI_Publication article based on my @ECPR_SGEU keynote address at @UniLUISS. The EU’s failure to address the autocracy crisis: MacGyver, Rube Goldberg, and Europe’s unused tools 🧵
tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108… Here's the abstract. Bottom line: Don't let anyone tell you the EU's shortcomings in addressing the crisis have to do with a lack of appropriate tools. The EU has had the necessary tools all along, and the claim that new tools must be created has served as an excuse for inaction.
Dec 3, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Great article provides useful reminder that Hungary is an electoral autocracy and not a democracy. Follows classic model of regime using state resources to ensure reelection. A couple more quick points 🧵 Article rightly points out this is illegal under EU law. So why hasn’t Commission taken action?….. Image
Nov 30, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
What to make of today’s EU actions on Hungary? Commission approves Hungary’s recovery plan but says no money can flow until rule of law reforms are implemented. At same time, Comm recommends suspension of €7.5bn in regular EU funds to Hungary under rule of law conditionality reg A mixed bag. Comm recommending fund suspension to Council is good news. Not as big of a suspension as was legally warranted, but still good news and more than I expected from appeasement oriented Commission. So bravo to @vonderleyen & @JHahnEU for showing some resolve… however-
Nov 18, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Lots of talk today about Hungary “blackmailing” the EU. This gets things wrong and misses the point. The EU has all the leverage and Hungary can only blackmail EU leaders if they are willing to be blackmailed. I discuss it in a forthcoming article in @JEI_Publication. An excerpt: “I think we need to ask ourselves: Why is it that Hungary and Poland are able to wield their vetoes to hold the EU hostage and extort money from it without strict conditions being applied, when other member states – such as Greece and others in southern Europe were not…” 1/n
Nov 9, 2022 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
With respect @Mij_Europe, I think your piece is too quick to accept the self- serving rationalizations for appeasement of the autocrat Orbán offered by @EU_Commission officials & ends up severely mischaracterizing what is happening here. A quick 🧵 First, the supposed “reforms” being proposed by Orban have already been revealed to be a total sham in their entirety. This is well documented. See for instance work by @KimLaneLaw @BardPetra & Mészaros in @Verfassungsblog
Sep 15, 2022 • 9 tweets • 6 min read
@Europarl_EN formally acknowledges that Hungary is no longer a democracy- making it the first EU institution to do so. This is a huge deal with potentially explosive implications. Quick 🧵 2. First important to know that ratings bodies like @vdeminstitute & @freedomhouse already declared Hungary was no longer a democracy some years ago. politico.com/news/2020/05/0…
Sep 14, 2022 • 14 tweets • 8 min read
Quick 🧵 on what @vonderleyen #SOTEU speech might mean for @EU_Commission’s approach to EU’s autocracy/ rule of law crisis: it isn’t good news. 2. Here’s full text. Section “STANDING UP FOR OUR DEMOCRACY” starts 2/3 of the way down. It begins (oddly) with a section on Queen Elizabeth II. Then vdL says “This is the time to invest in the power of democracies” & affirms commitment to EU enlargement ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Apr 6, 2022 • 14 tweets • 9 min read
1.Great news that @EU_Commission will finally trigger Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation vs. Orbán's autocratic mafia state (even if timing is politically foolish)!! But there are still reasons to worry that Commission may botch it & undermine Reg's effectiveness. Quick 🧵. 2. Commission could have triggered this mechanism already a year ago, but chose to procrastinate & keep handing Orbán tens of millions of €s that helped finance his kleptocracy & helped him win Sunday's grossly unfair election, but better late than never.
Apr 4, 2022 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
Why “autocracy” for the EU is like the name of “Lord Voldemort” in Harry Potter- “He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named" : Why are EU leaders so afraid to publicly admit that Hungary is an autocracy? Quick 🧵 2. Ratings bodies like @vdeminstitute & @freedomhouse have long since recategorized Hungary as an electoral autocracy or hybrid regime.
Apr 2, 2022 • 16 tweets • 7 min read
Most important thing to keep in mind about tomorrow’s “election” in Hungary is that the leading ratings bodies like @vdeminstitute do not consider Hungary a democracy. It is an “electoral autocracy” that holds heavily rigged elections to help legitimize the regime. 🧵 to follow👇 @vdeminstitute 2. as promised a thread on rigged election held today in Hungary. First, there is plenty of evidence of the ways in which the election was heavily rigged & the playing field so unfair as to violate basic democratic standards. I list some in this thread👇
Mar 31, 2022 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
Orban is cheating, just as he did in 2018. Attn: @osce_odihr 2.
Mar 15, 2022 • 17 tweets • 7 min read
Thanks to @E_Krukowska & @StephanieBodoni for this important story about @EU_Commission plans for appeasement of autocrats. Quick 🧵 on the politics involved & one key factual error in story (perhaps due to sources misleading the journalists?) bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 2. Story suggests @vonderleyen will (again) avoid confronting Fidesz & PiS governments over their attacks on the rule of law in Hungary & Poland & instead pursue appeasement of autocrats, but this time using the excuse of the horrific Russian invasion of Ukraine & need for unity
Feb 16, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Lots of great points in your piece and 🧵 @Mij_Europe & I agree that action on HU is more likely than on PL, but a couple arguments made by officials that you convey here (their claims not yours) need to be corrected 1/n 2. You write, “senior officials in Brussels’ other institutions argue that its scope is in fact much narrower, that it is a tool designed to protect EU taxpayers from fraud. Thus, if it’s possible to prove EU budget funds have been misused, they can be suspended.”
Feb 14, 2022 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
1. Good 🧵from @daniel_freund on @EU_Commission's delays in triggering Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation. I'll add a few thoughts of my own in this brief 🧵. With @EUCourtPress about to rule on HU & PL annulment actions, important to keep some facts straight. (1/15) 2. @EU_Commission's decision to delay application of Regulation until after @EUCourtPress rules on annulment actions this week was unlawful. The filing of an annulment action does not suspend the applicability of a Regulation. But Commission agreed to delay on political grounds
Feb 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
🧵
Important decision coming but
1) no suspense since HU & PL annulment actions were frivolous delaying tactics & will be rejected,
2) it was illegal for @EU_Commission to suspend application of Reg pending this ruling,
3)@EU_Commission will now have no excuse not to apply it 4) @vonderleyen & @JHahnEU may still try to stall, claiming Comm needs to digest ruling, finalize “guidelines” (which were not required in first place) etc,
5) no one should accept such excuses,
Nov 19, 2021 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
Great piece by @zosiawanat & @liliebayer on latest developments re rule of law conditionality regulation. 👇 Quick 🧵 w/ additional points: 1. These “letters” are yet another stalling tactic by the @vonderleyen Commission, used to distract from its failure to trigger the reg 2. Sending such letters is not a required step in the regulation. @EU_Commission could have triggered the regulation with a notification immediately after it came into force
Oct 28, 2021 • 5 tweets • 5 min read
🧵Last week I expressed fear that @vonderleyen would cave in- pretending to act on rule of law while actually handing funds to autocrats. It seems she's doing just that. Shameful capitulation- snatching defeat from jaws of victory at moment of max leverage 2. I hope I'm wrong but if- as it seems she will from statement in @Mij_Europe tweet- the appeaser @vonderleyen approves release of Covid recovery funds she will be breaking the law as @DanielSarmiento @ProfPech @JMorijn & @alemannoEU explain here: thegoodlobby.eu/2021/08/30/6-r…
Oct 19, 2021 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
1. Yes @alemannoEU this is my fear too. At its very moment of maximum leverage, I fear the @EU_Commission will choose the path of appeasing autocrats & hand Orban & Kaczynski regimes billions of EU taxpayers funds while they flout EU's fundamental rules. Here's how it could go.🧵 2. First, the Commission would PRETEND to trigger the rule of law conditionality regulation without actually doing so. How? By sending a request for info to Hungary and Poland under Art 6(4) of the reg & pretending this counts as triggering the regulation eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
Aug 31, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Poland’s sham “constitutional tribunal” - which is an illegal composed body full of “fake judges” rather than a court- is about to declare that it can ignore ECJ & that Polish regime can continue destroying judicial independence. Quick 🧵 reuters.com/world/europe/p… First it is important to recognize that the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has already ruled that Poland’s so-called constitutional court is not a “tribunal established by law”. So no one should heed its so-called “rulings” notesfrompoland.com/2021/05/07/pol…
Aug 24, 2021 • 21 tweets • 11 min read
1. Pleased to announce publication of @jepp_journal special issue edited by @SophieLMeunier, @Erik_Jones_SAIS, & I on "Failing forward? Crises & patterns of European integration?" Here's a 🧵about it... tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 2. In a 2016 special issue of @cps_journal edited by @mcopelov @stefwalter__ & @jafrieden on the political economy of the euro crisis, we published an article titled "Failing Forward? The Euro Crisis and the Incomplete Nature of European Integration" journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…