Here's the deal about basic income and inflation: it all depends. Can UBI be inflationary? Sure, if we do it in a certain way in a certain context, but no, not in other ways and contexts. We're talking about a multivariate equation. So what are the variables? It's THREAD time! 🧵 Inflation variable 1: The amount of UBI

A $100/mo UBI is going to have a different inflationary impact than $10k/mo. The amount of UBI matters. It matters because of demand exceeding supply, but also the labor impact that can potentially reduce supply.

Poverty level is doable.

Okay, everyone, here it is. I know many of you have been curious to read my take on @sama's basic income pilot results for about two full weeks now. Here's my take.

scottsantens.com/did-sam-altman…
On average, those who got basic income were two percentage points less likely to be employed and worked about 1.3 fewer hours per week. These two numbers are basically where many UBI opponents and skeptics claim with triumph that this pilot was a failure.

Okay, I'm going to need to write a full in-depth article about this stuff, but it's already reminding me of the Finland UBI pilot and how lots of people think that failed when it didn't. It makes perfect sense to read a tweet like Noah's and think the Denver pilot failed... 🧵👇

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1806008779286499406

If you look at just the right charts along with rhetoric that expresses disappointment, without reading the full reports for yourself, you can think you know all you need to know but you don't. And there are people out there who count on you not reading and understanding studies.

There's something about the debate going unsaid when we argue over whether AI will replace human labor or complement it.

If replace, then basic income is definitely needed.

If complement, then it's easy to believe we own the total value of our enhanced labor. But why is that? If my labor is enhanced by technology, such that my work as a human contributes 10% to what I produce and a machine contributes the other 90%, then why do I deserve anything more than 10%, even if I own the machine?

Now we need to ask where the machine came from...

"People perceive national debt as a negative, Grey said. But instead, he argues, you can think of it as a savings account, because people are earning interest through the bonds that they hold."

Correct. The "debt" is assets, and the ceiling is just dumb.
marketplace.org/2023/05/12/cou… It is a choice we make to issue Treasury securities $1 for $1 of federal spending that exceeds taxes. We don't have to do that, but it's popular because people like earning a US government guaranteed rate of interest.

The entire #DebtCeilingCrisis is just a hostage situation.

This is good but I wish it also included how Medicare Part D doesn't even carry the same issue as the rest of Medicare because it was set up to use general revenue. It's the example that proves all that's required to "fix Social Security" is just a legislative change in wording.

https://twitter.com/DeanBaker13/status/1642152937068855298

If we decide to reduce Social Security payments in the future, that's a political choice. We certainly don't have to do that. We can keep making 100% of payments, and no we don't even have to lift the cap on payroll taxes. We can just spend the money.

stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/what-fdr-and…

At their annual meeting, the Southern African Quaker Community voted in support of the introduction of a universal basic income for all people legally in South Africa. Here they explain the reasons behind the resolution.

dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-0… "The poverty-stricken masses have nothing going for them, see no hope for their future, and have nothing to lose. South Africa is a tinderbox that will catch fire if a match is thrown into it... South Africa may be considered a real-world example of where the world is going."

UBI critics: If we give people money without conditions, people will stop working.

UBI pilot: Turns out the UBI group worked more than the control group.

UBI critics: Well of course giving people more money works. But it costs too much.

UBI pilot: Turns out the money spent on… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Sources:

1. mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/2…

2. harris.uchicago.edu/news-events/ne…

3. mckinsey.com/industries/pub…

4. bignam.org/BIG_pilot.html

5. nber.org/papers/w29800

6. basicincometoday.com/providing-7500…

7. nber.org/papers/w29854

8. thecorrespondent.com/4664/why-do-th…

9. news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/02/05/new…

#BasicIncome

A 🧵 of key takeaways from the final results of the @stocktondemo of #BasicIncome published yesterday:

✅No negative impact on work
✅Income volatility down
✅Mental health improved
✅Less fatigued
✅Improved physical functioning
✅More bargaining power

link.springer.com/article/10.100… Pre-pandemic, employment increased quite a bit in the basic income group, but the increase did not remain significant during the pandemic. It's possible that this and other non-significant results were due to unexpected attrition by the end of the experiment. (more on that later)

Universal basic income? But where does the money come from? I hear that all the time. The better question to ask is how best to remove newly created UBI money from circulation? This simulation says it's a transaction tax, which is one of my own favorites.

bit.ly/3zMnC2l If you want to mess with the settings of this simulation yourself, here's where it's located. Definitely try turning off the universal basic income and transaction tax toggle and watch society break as one person eventually ends up with all the money.

fairshare.social

Looking back at my ten years of basic income advocacy, here's one thing I thought would already be a thing but isn't: celebrity interest. Where are the people with millions of fans who have picked UBI to be their cause?

Sure the Pope is on board with UBI, but he doesn't retweet. The single least effort thing you can do to support the basic income movement is to click the retweet button. A bit more effort but not much is writing your own tweet, or sharing a link on Twitter or anywhere really. If you want to help more, please make a point of at least that.

Lots of news articles are being written about this new study in Ireland of UBI, and as usual, the discussion is misinformed, as is the study itself. This is going to take a thread to get into why on both accounts, so here goes... 🧵

https://twitter.com/PaulRedmond9/status/1605098158458957824

2/ First, let's start with the headlines. I'm seeing many choose to focus on the proposed tax rates of 40% to 60%. I haven't seen a single article talk about effective tax rates, the difference, or UBI as a tax rebate. This is basically lying by omission.

It never stops being tiresome to see otherwise intelligent people make unsound comparisons about unemployment and UBI. There are important differences between 1) being jobless + having no income 2) being jobless + getting a conditional benefit and 3) getting unconditional income.

https://twitter.com/_alice_evans/status/1603345307500265473

As I say again and again, income comes before work. It's income that connects people to the labor market. It's income that fuels people. It's spending that creates jobs.

I am no "utopian idealist" for recognizing this stuff. I'm a realist.

scottsantens.com/the-toothpaste…

2023 will mark 10 years of my advocating hard for unconditional basic income. At this point, one of the things that annoys me most is the new claim from conspiracy-fueled people that the rich and powerful fully support UBI and want to use it to make a subservient population. 🧵 2/ First of all, most obviously, UBI is unconditional. It's in the damn definition. If cash comes with strings attached, it's not UBI. So you can't make the argument that UBI will be conditional. That's like arguing against water because it's dehydrated and won't quench thirst.

Unconditional basic income is freedom.

It's the freedom to say no

It's the freedom of work choice

It's the freedom to learn new skills

It's the freedom to create

It's the freedom to flee violence

It's the freedom to escape climate disaster

It's the freedom to breathe again Basic income is the freedom to pursue your dreams.

It's the freedom to pursue happiness

It's the freedom to be yourself

It's the freedom to not fear failure as an existential risk

It's the freedom to volunteer

It's the freedom to strike

It's the freedom to say, "Fuck you."

Pet peeve: When someone says they really dislike something but then ignore all the evidence of solutions that reduce that something, because something else is actually more important to them, but they don't say what that other thing is, because they know it makes them look bad. Example: Disliking abortion but not supporting things that reduce abortion, like highly effective contraception, affordable childcare, and monthly income for kids to help make being a parent more affordable, because you think a hierarchy of men over women is more important.

"The only way to achieve political equality is to change the rules of the game—in ways that get around the conservative courts. This means breaking out, further, of the binary, two-party system, and becoming a proportional, multiparty democracy."

THIS IS THE WAY. @Fwd_Party

https://twitter.com/leedrutman/status/1542852124299739138

"In a system of single-member districts, 60% of the vote in a district gets your party everything, 40% gets your party nothing. In multimember, proportional districts, 60% of the votes means 60% of the seats, and 40% of the vote means 40% of the seats."

democracyjournal.org/magazine/63/wi…

Democrats need to stop playing the game. Make it clear that the game is over and it's time for something new. Don't run a Dem in any district that's GOP gerrymandered. Don't pretend it's possible to win it. Make it clear that the primary winning Republican has already won. Only put resources into competitive races. Make it abundantly clear that gerrymandering has already destroyed democracy. Use that spotlight to push for ending all gerrymandering. Make the promise that if voters give Dems two more senators this Nov, they will end the duopoly.

Guy: "Look at that bum with the beer in his hand. He deserves to be poor cause he makes bad choices, not like me."

Same guy: "I'll take another pint and a shot. I've definitely had too much and I'll feel it tomorrow at work and may even need to call in sick, but I've earned it." That one's kind of inspired by Steve Hughes and his bit about giving money to the homeless.

"You don't give these people money. They'll just spend it on drink and drugs."

"Well what the fuck do you think I was going to spend it on?"

I've heard from conservatives so many times that child poverty is the result of the poor choices of adults who couldn't really afford to have kids but had them anyway and yet here we are now where the choice to not have kids has been dramatically curtailed by those conservatives. Republicans need to immediately lean hard into family support policies. If you're going to impose birth, you'd better make sure you aren't also imposing poverty. You also can't force a woman to have a kid and then also force her into the jobs market without paying for child care.

🧵: UBI mainly operates along 3 effect pathways: people need enough money to pay for what they need, people need enough stability in their incomes to plan ahead and worry less, and people need to exist in environments where inequality isn't so extreme so as to erode social bonds. Universal basic income is not just about reducing poverty by increasing access to physical resource needs like food. UBI helps those who already have enough by increasing their stability. Knowing that no matter what, you're going to be okay, provides a real feeling of security.