.@anoury8118 and I have looked at the EP roll-call votes on the #MigrationPact, and here are the splits by political group and member state in the final votes on the 8 parts of the package 1/9 Solidarity and responsibility (Tobé report), which passed 322 in favour, 266 against, and 21 abstentions

Just reading through the chapter on "Europe and the World" in the new German government coalition agreement. Hugely ambitious and potentially transformative for Europe. Here are a few highlights 1/n Emphasis throughout on a more democratic EU, with greater decision capacity, and more sovereignty in the world: "A democratically stronger, more capable and strategically sovereign EU is the basis for peace, prosperity and freedom". 2/n

On the debate about class in Red Wall seats, the BES data suggest that income was MORE steeply related to voting Con in 2019 in Red Wall seats than anywhere else (cf. @PME_Politics @chrishanretty @p_surridge @drjennings @hopkin) 1/3 This suggests that Labour mainly lost wealthier voters in these areas, who used to vote Lab and now vote Con (nb. researchers on US elections would not surprised by this) 2/3

A few thoughts about Ursula vdL, the crisis the EU Commission is facing, and the Spitzenkandidat process ... bear with me 1/n When a chief executive messes up badly in a democratic system, there is usually a debate about whether/how to replace them (well, except in the UK these days!) 2/n

A few thoughts on Boris and Brexit, and where we might be heading in terms of the future relationship 1/n On the one hand there are several factors that suggest a Harder or even a No Deal Brexit 2/n

I've been updating some figures on the composition of the EP over time after the #EP2019 results
(@sarahobolt @bjornhoyland @ggbenedetto @CatherineDVries @GoodwinMJ @tabouchadi @sd270 @markhleonard @kevcunningham @mvanhulten @dorufrantescu). Here's the first one Here are the peaks in size of the groups:
S&D 38.2% in May94
EPP 37.4% in May04
ALDE 14.8% in Jul19
EAPN 10.5% in Jul19 (but might go higher in next few weeks)
ECR 10.0% in Ma19 (but might go higher in next few weeks)
G/EFA 9.7% in Jul19
GUE 6.9% in Jul14
EFDD 5.5% in May19

Ready for the #EP2019 results tonight, here's a summary of our forecast (w/ @kevcunningham & Michael Marsh) compared to the @EuropeElects and @POLITICOEurope forecasts (@sarahobolt @AgataGostynska @LuukvMiddelaar) Just noticed a slight error. Sorry! Here are the correct figures

Quick take after tonight's votes:

After the rejection of the Cooper and Reeves amendments, and the acceptance of the Brady amendment, it looks like we're down to 2 options: May's Deal vs. No Deal, as delay of Brexit has been taken off the table.
1/ But, I think it is unlikely the EU27 will budge on the backstop, as Tusk and others have stated, which will mean the ERG and other Tory Brexiteers will prefer No Deal to May's Deal
2/

THREAD: If (when?) Brexit has had a devastating effect on the UK’s economy and society, this act of self-harm can be blamed on a litany of failures by our political class and institutions. In reverse order: 1/ Failures by May, Davis and Johnson and co. to recognise their relative bargaining weakness, the incompatibility of their ‘red lines’, or to make any attempt to build a broad consensus in the House of Commons 2/