Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #EP2019

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Interesting report by @EPInstitutional & @PDurandOfficiel on #EP2019 elections, in particular on the need for more #genderbalance, reform of @EUCouncil and of the #spitzenkandidat system, and the role of #Europeanparties.
BUT.... a short thread 👇 1/9
europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document…
#Genderbalance is essential and political parties must be required to submit *gender-alternate* lists, where no two consecutive candidates can be of the same gender. This is one more reason to harmonise voting modalities at the EU level and not leave them up to Member States. 2/9
Our voting system must be reformed to ensure not only proportionality, but also a close link between citizens and MEPs. Lists of 30, 40 or 90 candidates are the best way for citizens to have no information about MEPs beyond their party affiliation. 3/9
eudemocracy.eu/adopting-the-i…
Read 10 tweets
How the Conference on the future of Europe will look like? And what will it actually do?

After months of speculation, it's the European Parliament – not the Commission that first initiated #CoFoE – to offer 1st blueprint.

Here’s an initial analysis THREAD @threadreaderapp
(Spoiler): The Conference is in essence a Constitutional Convention model PLUS, but whose 'plus' is so tiny that fails to capture the unprecedented vivacity of EU civil society and mismanage expectations after #EP2019 #CoFoE
Despite its constitutional ambitions, #CoFoE won’t be a grandiloquent Convention entrusted to draft Constitution for EU. Yet a closer look suggests it'll play a similar role: to prepare a set of “concrete recommendations” that may be turned into legislative and/or Treaty changes
Read 12 tweets
Thread 1/5
On it's own this is a small but embarrassing climbdown and it's not a major story, however it's a good reflection of the momentum that's going against @FineGael right now.

rte.ie/news/politics/…
2/5
@LeoVaradkar's long honeymoon is now over. The party is not delivering on public services, on financial prudence, on housing or on tax cuts. The way the Mercusor deal is being spun is pissing off farmers and this insensitivity to Catholics is just icing on the cake.
3/5
The very poor performance in Dublin in #le19 and #ep2019 and declining poll numbers have now made #ge19 a frightening prospect for @FineGael but losing four bye-elections in November is just as awful, if they delay a general election.
Read 5 tweets
Who voted Brexit Party in 2019?

Demographics of the #Brexit Party vote at #ep2019

Source: our forthcoming work w/Clarke, Stewart & Whiteley
Worth thinking about this one alongside the Boris tax cut ...
Support for the Brexit Party by perceptions of being economically left behind
Read 3 tweets
I'm wondering about #Brexit and political identity, and how much this can explain the #ep2019 result in the UK, and might inform what Tories and Labour might try to do if there were a UK General Election
What the UK population things about Brexit is well documented in this PDF ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… by @UKandEU
The hardening of voter sentiment about the EU question is covered by this polling from YouGov yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Read 7 tweets
New @OpiniumResearch poll has Brexit party top GE voting intentions after YouGov had LibDems top. Polls inform voters' intentions as much as they measure them. Those two say: "other party than Con/Lab can win next General Election so you can choose them without wasting your vote"
This "informational" effect of the two polls this week is even more worrying for Labour and Tories than the "measurement" element. It will further unleash voters' frustration towards them by harming their claim on useful/strategic voting.
We wrote before #EP2019 polls shouldn't be read as "predictions" of vote.This is even more valid for those polls and the next GE. Yet,they could potentially start a dynamic where BrexitP and LibDem vote might be perceived as the strategic choices of Remainers and Leavers.
Read 4 tweets
I've been updating some figures on the composition of the EP over time after the #EP2019 results
(@sarahobolt @bjornhoyland @ggbenedetto @CatherineDVries @GoodwinMJ @tabouchadi @sd270 @markhleonard @kevcunningham @mvanhulten @dorufrantescu). Here's the first one
Here are the peaks in size of the groups:
S&D 38.2% in May94
EPP 37.4% in May04
ALDE 14.8% in Jul19
EAPN 10.5% in Jul19 (but might go higher in next few weeks)
ECR 10.0% in Ma19 (but might go higher in next few weeks)
G/EFA 9.7% in Jul19
GUE 6.9% in Jul14
EFDD 5.5% in May19
And here's a figure showing the fragmentation of the party system in the EP. The numbers above the line are the "Effective Number of Parties" (ENP) at the start of an EP, and the numbers below are the ENP at the end of an EP.

6.5 "effective" parties in the EP is a new high.
Read 4 tweets
To mark the release of "Nacionalpopulismo" I am giving away 3 free copies to first people who DM me their contact info. Postage on me #ep2019 Otherwise €20 on Amazon.ES

amazon.es/Nacionalpopuli…
All gone
En route to Cristobal in Chile, David and Daniel in Spain and America in France. Enjoy! Wish I had more to give away but, you know, publishers ... ;-)
Read 3 tweets
Why are the European Parliament elections "winning elections" for the radical right & what are the implications for national success? #EP2019

1) Their programmatic demands are salient

2) EU technocracy fits anti-elitist discourse

3) EP elections are "second-order"

/1 👇
1) EP elections help the radical right to advance their core programmatic demands.

Why?
The issue of European integration is particularly salient in the campaign.
/2
It is debated in close connection to issues pertaining to cultural or identitarian politics, notably immigration, the 'twin issue' of European integration. Conflicts over these issues form an increasingly relevant dimension of party competition across Europe.
/3
Read 13 tweets
Much of the supposed analysis of the Tory leadership race, and the statements from the candidates, are horribly confused and confusing.

I think this is because we are asking the wrong question.
We are asking:
"Who will be the next Tory leader?"

But the actual question is:
"What will the Tory Party be in future?"
There are three answers to the Q what the Tory Party will be.

1️⃣ It is the Tory Party - a centre-right party with notions of economic prudence, pro-business etc.

2️⃣ It seeks to be the Brexit Party - delivering Brexit, and doing so as soon as possible by whatever means available
Read 11 tweets
Trying to make sense of what is happening in 🇩🇪 politics just now has been on my mind a lot recently.

Here is a thread about it...

...and it starts with someone pretty much all of my non-German followers will never have heard of:

YouTuber @rezomusik
The Guardian has a summary of the Rezo phenomenon here:
theguardian.com/world/2019/may…

tl;dr - it's a 55 minute rant about the shortcomings of the CDU-SPD grand coalition, and urging people to vote in #EP2019
Here's the full video:

12 million views so far!

And Rezo and 90 others followed up with this:

3.2 million views
Read 19 tweets
It was the fourth EU election I covered here in Brussels last night
So (sorry as it’s a crowded market) some reflections/a thread #ep2019
Sorry
The first one I did here was 2004
The EPP/Socialist majority (a combined 485 out of 732 MEPs) and machine was chugging away at the heart of the EU - like a well ordered German diesel
There were cracks - Farage did well
The French Socialists + others were pushing Chirac for a referendum on the newly agreed EU constitution - an upheaval to come
Some writing on the wall, the 2005 French and Dutch referendum earthquake still reverberates - concluded with Brexit
Read 18 tweets
Citizen K on

#EuropeanElectionResults :

- Mainstream politics will continue to lose ground unless they will renew & restructure themselves by organisational architecture, people, messages, technology.

- Leaning toward extremists in messaging will only benefit the extremists.
Citizen K comments on #EuropeanElectionResults :

- 51% turnout may look promising but deserves a deeper analysis.

- Whose votes increased most? Therefore who mobilized her voters more..

Based on these results, it is hard to say the champion of this is the mainstream politics..
Citizen K on #EuropeanElectionResults :

- Countries who joined the EU after 2004 are the countries with least participation Slovakia, Czechia, Croatia, Bulgaria..

- Alarming for the success rate of European integration, power of European dream.
Read 7 tweets
THREAD: 1. Everything needs a bit more analysis and a cooler head. Stop catastrophising. Our despair is the far right’s biggest weapon. In France, for instance, I hear from a couple of friends within En Marche they’re delighted being 0.9% behind LePen after months of turmoil.
2. Remember, in a presidential election, most of the rest of the vote unites against LePen. Macron is in a commanding position for a second term. LePen won in 2014 with 24.4%. She’s now on 23.3. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders - an absolutely key figure in the Euro alt-right -
3. ... was annihilated, losing all 4 of his MEPs. In Greece, Golden Dawn have dropped from 9.4% to 4.9%. In Austria the FPO from 20% to 17%, in turmoil over financial scandal, and out of gov’t. In Germany the AfD barely moved the dial, adding 1 MEP, while the Greens came second.
Read 5 tweets
Important result that Tories lost twice as many seats to #Remain parties than #BrexitParty. BXP swapped for 23 UKIP and gained extra 5 to get 28. Tories lost 15 seats - 5 to BXP and 10 to Remain.
#EUelections2019 #EP2019
Conservative MPs must be aware that it's too late for new members to join & vote in #ToryLeadershipContest. However, if a general election is coming, there will probably be time to take part in selections/deselections of MP. This may be by #Remain voters.
#EUelections2019
6M plus signed a petition to revoke Article 50. If 2.5% of them joined the Conservatives, then they would be likely bigger than the current membership. Won't be enough time for #ToryLeadership in the #ToryLeadershipContest but possibly enough time before any General Election.
Read 3 tweets
A few thoughts on #EP2019 now that most of the results are in.

The key words are fragmentation and polarisation.

1) if you compare 2019 & 2014 results, the main centre-right and centre-left blocs have lost seats. Liberals, greens, and far-right nationalists have made gains
2) Far-right nationalists as a whole are on similar levels to 2014 & recent elections. Gains are driven by a small number of parties. In several countries support has fallen. Le Pen's first place is mostly symbolic — she did better in 2014.
3) Far-right nationalism isn't going away, it remains a significant force, but it is not a 2019 trend nor is it surging and constantly advancing as much of the narrative and framing of European elections suggests
Read 11 tweets
So to sum up #EP2019 in the UK

A *cataclysm* of a bad night for the Tories. Quite literally their worst election ever. The worst since the Great Reform Act of 1832 which began, you know, British democracy.
The Brexit Party did extremely well. With no ground organisation they won a national election by a mile. They surpassed UKIP’s vote share. They won more seats. They’re now the joint largest party in the European Parliament (alongside German CDU). It will terrify the Tories.
Labour had their worst performance too. Haemorrhaged remain support. Fifth in Scotland. Third in Wales. Second in London. Catastrophic. The Corbyn ambiguity strategy worked for a long time. It’s not working now.
Read 12 tweets
Our thesis = national populists would increase/entrench in Europe

UP
Hungary -1st
Italy -1st
Pol -1st
UK -1st
Germany
Sweden
Dutch FvD
Belgium
Spain
Slovak
Estonia
Bulgaria

STEADY
Finland
Slovakia

DOWN
France -1st
Dutch PVV
Denm
Austria

We were right
amzn.to/2K7sarM
Though if you have read our final chapter you'll note Danish & Austrian cases also consistent. Danish left has veered right on migration, Austrian centre-right co-opted much of FPO. In broad terms, Europe's rightward policy drift on identity issues continues
I am mainly comparing with 2014 here but see my earlier tweets on the need to see these results through a longer term/wider lens, at which point what is happening in the EU today becomes even more striking #ep2019
Read 3 tweets
While we wait for the UK results in #EP2019 here's

Brexiters and iconic Daleks - a thread
Gold Dalek
Dalek serving tea
Read 10 tweets
Ok. Let’s do this. #ep2019
Join us live from 2100 on @SkyNews.
Hearing from a source in Wales, voter sampling suggests that Labour, a party which has won every national election in Wales bar one for a century, might well come fourth tonight. #EP2019
Read 46 tweets
Something very interesting going on in Denmark. Social Democrats doing v well, bodes well for them in imminent general election. Terrible result for far right Danish People’s Party, lost half their vote.
But SDs have moved far to the right on immigration. Is the lesson for social democrats that they must ape the right on integration to stop the haemorrhaging of working class voters? #EP2109
Fascinating results coming from Ireland.

Exit poll shows a remarkable green surge. Up from 1.2% to *23%*

Sinn Fein could be about to lose all their seats in the Republic. Could be left with a single seat- in Northern Ireland. Oh the irony.
Read 13 tweets
Ok let’s do this- what you should be watching out for in #EP2019 (THREAD).
Obviously, the rise of the Brexit Party will take all the headlines. Forget Brexit for a moment, this is actually a really interesting political test case. Can a party with almost no local infrastructure win an election from 36000 feet? Without a “get out the vote’ operation?
If BXP does worse than expected or doesn’t perform as well as its poll performance, we can conclude that this campaigning experiment (campaign by rally, few boots on the ground) has held the party back. If they can’t match 26.6% (UKIP’s score in 2014) we’ll know why.
Read 4 tweets
#EP2019 — Germany ZDF projection:

CDU/CSU 27.5%
GRN 20.5%
SPD 15.5%
AfD 10.5%
FDP 5.5%
Linke 5.5%

zdf.de/nachrichten/he…
#EP2019 — Germany ARD projection:

CDU/CSU 28%
GRN 22%
SPD 15.5%
AfD 10.5%
FDP 5.5%
Linke 5.5%

tagesschau.de/inland/europaw…
#EP2019 — Germany — ZDF projection in seats:

CDU/CSU 27
GRN 20
SPD 15
AfD 11
FDP 6
Linke 6
Others 11

zdf.de/nachrichten/he…
Read 4 tweets
#EUelections2019 results about to start arriving. This prediction by party family and country makes a good baseline:
Polls have closed in Germany. Exit poll suggests result there could be towards bottom end of expectations range for centre-left SPD and hard-right AfD, slightly better than expected for Greens.
Noteworthy, if German exit poll accurate:
- AfD result only 3 points up on 2014, before migration crisis
- First ever Germany-wide election where Greens bigger than SPD
- Early indication that the big story of #EP2019 will be not "populists triumph" but pan-spectrum fragmentation
Read 22 tweets

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