If you’re going to incorporate volume profile into your market approach, it’s crucial to always ask the question, “Is value following price or is price returning to value?” Let’s use Friday’s NFP action as an example. It starts Thursday with settled “value” for #ES_F ~4291…..🧵 Keeping Thursday’s value at 4291 in mind. Overnight the auction rotates around this “value” waiting for the 8:30 EST NFP release….

Be sure to check out the review of the "4Question" trade available on Friday after the open: A "Directional Open Go With" begins with the discernment of a directional open. In this example..we gapped. That's the inciting event...it's not, however, the target...

Other observation from “insight” sessions. Lots of self-described fear, lack of confidence, & loads of self-described “mental” challenges. This is what’s felt & so they believe they need to get tougher mentally….I disagree….. Since almost none of them are making their living by trading, I ask about their day jobs. I ask whether they have the same fear, confidence, mental challenges in the execution of their professions. The answer is the same….no.

A repetitive challenge I’m observing from these “insight” sessions is that traders are taking trades & have NO idea where the target is. Friends….we define our trades by the target/offset first! How else would you appropriately set your risk? Would you buy a house to “flip” it and not know what would be a reasonable price you could sell it for?

With #UkraineWar in focus, lots of #futures traders talking about Wheat. This has certainly impacted #ZW_F. We’ve seen a number of limit up days and the composite profile is thin. Here’s a way I’m playing Wheat…. I sold the May 980/990/1485/1495 Iron Condor for 4.25/cents per spread. As long as #ZW_F is trading above 995 and below 1485 in 43 days I'll get the max profit...but likely manage before...

My friend @AnthonyCrudele says, “trading is a journey of oneself” One of the ways I interpret that is that along this journey, you have to arrive at the approach to markets that fits you. This means if you are developing you will need…... to be exposed to a number of ways to approach markets. This means learning from different practitioners. I understand this is a challenge. However, let’s say you want to gain skill expressing skill in intraday directional trades in the #ES_F….

Some thoughts about freedom and trading on "Independence" day. Each year I listen to a recitation of the declaration of Independence and I reflect on the war for independence. Not just the war itself, but the struggle and grappling by the colonists to pursue what they believed "independence" offered them.