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Decaying biological computer. Jack of some trades. Serial yak shaver. Planeswalker.
11 Jun
Not enough has been written about how the Dunning-Kruger effect is a self-fulfilled prophecy by the Thomas theorem:

1. Redefining mediocre as excellent

2. Creating a kakonomy (lemons ≻ peaches), with positive feedback loop & Matthew effect

3. Resulting in a race to the bottom
The Matthew effect, e.g. network effect, impedes beating the mediocre, e.g. blub paradox and market dynamics

The peaches result not indistinguishable from the lemons but actually worse, possibly even "harbingers of failure", even at an axiological or first principles level
Differently from other multipolar traps, the main causes are epistemic and the strength of numbers; not a moral hazard. If there is a moral decision, it is beyond the comprehension of the mediocre majority

The few peaches, irrelevant as they may be, face a complicated decision:
Read 13 tweets
15 Mar
This is not the best message

If population was divided between immune & elder, then the elder should be the ones in their homes

You cannot infect any elder by having a beer with your friend Josh in a pub if the elders are at their homes in quarantine
Rather, consider you are increasing the probability of:
1. recurrence into a version of the virus that may kill you (even before you are old), and
2. saturating the healthcare system, that you may need, for example after a car accident
So you don't really need to be altruistic. You don't need to think about others, or that we-are-all-in-this-together

It would be appreciated, and would make you a decent human, as opposed to scum unworthy of life

But it is not necessary, you see?
Read 6 tweets
1 Dec 19
Thread on intelligence

First: health

For every system, what allows it to operate in a wider range of situations in the future and for longer time, contributes to its health, it is beneficial (game & value theory)

Easy to see in systems like: body, mind, economy, ecosystems,…
This fits with the usual definition of adaptability to the environment, and the less common ability of pursuing an objective function in a wide range of situations, but there's more to it

The objective function is more specific: increasing health

The adaptation is not necessary
Intelligence cannot be understood without upper and lower holistic levels

Parasites have by definition a detrimental effect on the health of their hosts, less health means less intelligence for their strategy for survival, e.g. if they cause the death of their host, they may die
Read 13 tweets
14 Nov 19
HR departments highly scientific algorithms may be (very accurately and systematically) selecting for lemons, discarding peaches

Perfect example of kakonomy in many levels: HR, executives, candidates, managers,… take any two
If you make questions for a job interview without due attention, you may ask something different from what you think you are asking, and you will effectively filter out people that know better than you.

Please do, otherwise meetings will be very frustrating later on.
If you want to do new things, you have to be your own boss

Work 9 to 5 on boring repetitive tasks to pay the bills, then be your own boss to grow

HR depts will rarely risk putting you on something new, they will tell you to do what you have already done
Read 9 tweets
9 Jan 19
The reward function in economy (i.e. profit) is contrary to ethics, sustainability, environment, health, well-being,…

Super-human AIs running on wetware (i.e. companies) gradually become more efficient at it in a Darwinian process
Ruthless psychopaths are more fit to the economic reward function than anyone else, they are rewarded for it as rulers of those less fit

Similarly to an organism with cancer, harmful individuals prosper, and multiply, out of control, unstoppable, and consuming more resources
This is the best time for humanity in history so far

This is the most risky time for humanity in history so far

Most economic metrics will keep improving, but anabolic steroids are not a good treatment for cancer. Most therapies are hard on the patient, but necessary
Read 4 tweets
22 Dec 18
Thread of threads on how corporations and other organizations are not doing the right thing (and maybe that is why you should quit your job). Related post in parent thread:
Lack of proper leadership is a problem:
Read 6 tweets
22 Dec 18
When management gets in the way of creativity (creating value), companies face hard times. This extract is from Zero to One, from Peter Thiel and Blake Masters. Find it here: genius.com/Peter-thiel-ze…

Or get it, here: amzn.to/2ShtwRE
Jordan Peterson is polemic, but he is right on point here. Companies evolve by becoming less creative and more managerial, this senescence arrives earlier for some companies than others, and eventually means death.

In some cases this senescence may not come from "natural" processes within the company, but have external sources. In general there is a wide range of variability about when it may happen, some companies may remain "young" for extended periods of time.

Read 12 tweets
23 Sep 18
This is a thread on human well-being & economy alignment, esp. businesses/companies

It's related w/ other threads like incentives alignment, focusing on value creation & how markets react

Disclaimer: I'm not an economist. I simply want cybernetics back

@threadreaderapp unroll means you might be able to read the thread as if it was a single webpage, just following the link in the reply to this particular message. It'll never finish, though

Sorry for the typos & the lack of structure. W\o Twitter I would still be procrastinating
Read 2 tweets
22 Sep 18
Think out of the box:
Normal approach → normal results
Break w/ norms, do things differently & better
Sometimes is not about what you add, but about what you remove
If something is wrong, unnecessary, expensive,… remove it!
@BedrosKeuilian (interesting as the centroid of a cluster, IMHO):

1. Find your purpose
2. Be resourceful, relentless, resilient
3. Set higher expectations
4. Own your life

First: Fail small many times very fast. Learn.

Then: Win big a few times committing to them. Invest.

Read 14 tweets
22 Aug 18
We are living in a boring dystopia

Expanding on this long excellent thread

Work it harder
Make it better
Do it faster
Makes us stronger

More than ever
Hour after
Our work is
Never over

If software is eating the world, startups should focus on new types of food, that's the logic!
Read 25 tweets
21 Aug 18
Choose something that lets you grow, not a dead end

The likelihood of boundaries in your growth is much greater w/ a boss than being free, eg freelance

BTW: What's worse? If the boundary is in your capability to create value or in getting rewarded for it
Your growth & freedom are also severely limited by some contracts; eg renting your brain 24/7, giving up all rights to any intellectual property for as long as the contract lasts

Here's the link to the relevant part of the parent tweet tree:

As an entrepreneur, employee, or even a candidate: always be able to walk. Otherwise, there's no negotiation, and that ensures a bad deal, for you. Don't accept bad deals, you can easily find yourself losing (not winning!) to not lose even more.

Read 17 tweets
14 Aug 18
I want at least one millionaire to be concerned about self-improving AI, and how that's our best chance to solve all existential risks / complex problems, for which human intelligence is too slow or never enough

I have to make 7+ figures per year…

Lonely means less talking, that's not necessarily bad, neither good. It's what you make of it.

Read 23 tweets
7 Aug 18
Poor people debate, they cannot put any money where their mouth is, they need to convince many other poor people to be economically relevant

Rich people invest, build, shape the world. The result is not always good, but there's a result, that's something

There may be more than one cause-effect relationship. Certainly not an easy task. But Bizantine discussions w/ ultracrepidarian poor people seems one of the worst ways to waste a life. Don't do that.

Stop talking - opinions
Start building - reality

The new name for responsibility is ownership. Own your life. Honor your words.

For serious issues, a doctor may patch you, don't try surgery at home. Diet, exercise, habits,…, health & well-being: that's on you.

Take action, you owe it to yourself.

Read 22 tweets
25 Jul 18
Fear of the unknown is usual, especially when you don't see a way back.

The reason why you may not see the way back is that few or none take it, not because they cannot do that, but because they don't want to.

Triple check if you want. Here are some examples.
I did not foresee this kind of references in the "main thread", so here it is

There are many traps in the job market, avoid them or, if in one now, escape

If you stay, then that's bad for you and for everyone on your side of the market

BTW: The main thread is a compilation of tweets with reasons to quit your job. There are many references. Here's the main thread (thread reader app in the end):

Read 17 tweets
21 Jul 18
@danthemanlok 3 lessons for entrepreneurship
- Dominate, don't compete
- Verify, don't assume
- Be somebody, be somewhere, do something

@peterthiel Zero to One
-Build a monopoly, avoid competition
-Start w/ yourself: laser focus
-Do something new, 10x improvement, for a niche, then scale
[get knowledge, shift consumers]
-Network effects, economies of scale, branding
[protect your market]
- Create a category, don't compete at one; easily differentiate
- Niche, not scale; quality, not quantity
- Scratch your own itch, explain it simple
- Measurable objectives, eg start: 1K true fans, track _,…
- Focus: effective & pareto principle
Read 11 tweets
21 Jul 18
Short thread: what you are learning at your job may not be what you want to learn.

There are many things: [natural|programming] languages, habits, technologies, how to deal w/ some circumstances or in some contexts you would not find outside,…

This thread is motivated by: I just did `rm -rf ~ /.ssh`

Why?: At work Win7+ConEmu+ES keyboard requires pressing space to do the `~` character, not in Linux, at home

I've backups and everything is safe, so no problem, but it really pisses me off.
Learning may be difficult, unlearning is more difficult

"Don't practice what you don't want to become"

You change the world and the world changes you, the point is if you take control of that process during most of your wake hours or you sell them cheap

Read 11 tweets
17 Jul 18

Over the years I may be learning to use Twitter. Recently I've started to make threads, although not posting all tweets at the same time. I recommend you link/chain yours too, if you want to find them later

For me, first the pinned tweets:

My first thread was on incentives alignment, some people say it's related w/ skin in the game. I derailed it later when I should have started a new one. We cannot edit tweets from the past, time never goes back, Twitter subcommunicates a good lesson.

Technically I'm linking threads, so it's a tree. But they refer to each other. So it's a graph.

I started a new thread on incentives alignment, but I am more concerned about the particular alignment of economic profit and human well-being (next thread).

Read 15 tweets
4 Jul 18
Starting a new thread on incentives, here's the old one:
This was too good not to keep it (I keep it, I can find it, it's in a thread now):

Technically it was already mentioned, but I'm just not so good with words. Here's the reference (you know I didn't _edit_ a random old tweet 😜):
Read 24 tweets