Not enough has been written about how the Dunning-Kruger effect is a self-fulfilled prophecy by the Thomas theorem:
1. Redefining mediocre as excellent
2. Creating a kakonomy (lemons ≻ peaches), with positive feedback loop & Matthew effect
3. Resulting in a race to the bottom
The Matthew effect, e.g. network effect, impedes beating the mediocre, e.g. blub paradox and market dynamics
The peaches result not indistinguishable from the lemons but actually worse, possibly even "harbingers of failure", even at an axiological or first principles level
Differently from other multipolar traps, the main causes are epistemic and the strength of numbers; not a moral hazard. If there is a moral decision, it is beyond the comprehension of the mediocre majority
The few peaches, irrelevant as they may be, face a complicated decision:
Rather, consider you are increasing the probability of: 1. recurrence into a version of the virus that may kill you (even before you are old), and 2. saturating the healthcare system, that you may need, for example after a car accident
For every system, what allows it to operate in a wider range of situations in the future and for longer time, contributes to its health, it is beneficial (game & value theory)
Easy to see in systems like: body, mind, economy, ecosystems,…
This fits with the usual definition of adaptability to the environment, and the less common ability of pursuing an objective function in a wide range of situations, but there's more to it
The objective function is more specific: increasing health
The adaptation is not necessary
Intelligence cannot be understood without upper and lower holistic levels
Parasites have by definition a detrimental effect on the health of their hosts, less health means less intelligence for their strategy for survival, e.g. if they cause the death of their host, they may die
If you make questions for a job interview without due attention, you may ask something different from what you think you are asking, and you will effectively filter out people that know better than you.
Please do, otherwise meetings will be very frustrating later on.
If you want to do new things, you have to be your own boss
Work 9 to 5 on boring repetitive tasks to pay the bills, then be your own boss to grow
HR depts will rarely risk putting you on something new, they will tell you to do what you have already done
When management gets in the way of creativity (creating value), companies face hard times. This extract is from Zero to One, from Peter Thiel and Blake Masters. Find it here: genius.com/Peter-thiel-ze…
Jordan Peterson is polemic, but he is right on point here. Companies evolve by becoming less creative and more managerial, this senescence arrives earlier for some companies than others, and eventually means death.
In some cases this senescence may not come from "natural" processes within the company, but have external sources. In general there is a wide range of variability about when it may happen, some companies may remain "young" for extended periods of time.
Think out of the box:
Normal approach → normal results
Break w/ norms, do things differently & better
Sometimes is not about what you add, but about what you remove
If something is wrong, unnecessary, expensive,… remove it!
As an entrepreneur, employee, or even a candidate: always be able to walk. Otherwise, there's no negotiation, and that ensures a bad deal, for you. Don't accept bad deals, you can easily find yourself losing (not winning!) to not lose even more.
I want at least one millionaire to be concerned about self-improving AI, and how that's our best chance to solve all existential risks / complex problems, for which human intelligence is too slow or never enough
@danthemanlok 3 lessons for entrepreneurship
- Dominate, don't compete
- Verify, don't assume
- Be somebody, be somewhere, do something
@peterthiel Zero to One
-Build a monopoly, avoid competition
-Start w/ yourself: laser focus
-Do something new, 10x improvement, for a niche, then scale
[get knowledge, shift consumers]
-Network effects, economies of scale, branding
[protect your market]
- Create a category, don't compete at one; easily differentiate
- Niche, not scale; quality, not quantity
- Scratch your own itch, explain it simple
- Measurable objectives, eg start: 1K true fans, track _,…
- Focus: effective & pareto principle
Over the years I may be learning to use Twitter. Recently I've started to make threads, although not posting all tweets at the same time. I recommend you link/chain yours too, if you want to find them later
My first thread was on incentives alignment, some people say it's related w/ skin in the game. I derailed it later when I should have started a new one. We cannot edit tweets from the past, time never goes back, Twitter subcommunicates a good lesson.