1. Clever Hans was a horse that was able to perform mathematical calculations and other impressive tasks, which initially appeared to be a remarkable example of animal intelligence.
Several things may be considered as "triggers" of an AI winter, e.g
—"aging" of teams
—not meeting investor expectations after diminishing returns
—whistleblowers ending the hype by exposing lies
—…
TBH: I think those are symptoms, but not the root cause
After watching "Counterfeiting Kills Economies (And Helps Them Too)"
I would like to see a fight:
— Companies innovating too fast for patents to be useful for them
vs
— Companies with business models relying on patents to impede competitors' innovation imdb.com/title/tt961786…
The documentary is coming from Amazon, which has an "interesting" relationship with intelectual property
As more companies join the debate, data about the impact of patents on innovation and economies should be presented, to defend each case
Feb 12, 2021 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
I am going to make a short thread to explain how Sutskever's tweet signals (IMHO) the beginning of the next AI winter
You may understand my use of a pseudonym to comment on "work ethics" on the Internet, as potential or current employers might read it
If Sutskever's opinion were not relevant enough, it has been seconded by other famous AI researchers, like Brockman, arguably making a point through example, and not just words
Not enough has been written about how the Dunning-Kruger effect is a self-fulfilled prophecy by the Thomas theorem:
1. Redefining mediocre as excellent
2. Creating a kakonomy (lemons ≻ peaches), with positive feedback loop & Matthew effect
3. Resulting in a race to the bottom
The Matthew effect, e.g. network effect, impedes beating the mediocre, e.g. blub paradox and market dynamics
The peaches result not indistinguishable from the lemons but actually worse, possibly even "harbingers of failure", even at an axiological or first principles level
May 15, 2020 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
I often think about this kind of problem
Similarly for Bill Gates and others with warnings about climate change, pandemics,…
Most decision makers should be treated as toddlers, resulting in post-truth
Reminder: you need to write about something only if:
- It is new, well founded, ethical, actionable, tested, and working
- Someone interested in it coming from you will find it
Rather, consider you are increasing the probability of: 1. recurrence into a version of the virus that may kill you (even before you are old), and 2. saturating the healthcare system, that you may need, for example after a car accident
For every system, what allows it to operate in a wider range of situations in the future and for longer time, contributes to its health, it is beneficial (game & value theory)
Easy to see in systems like: body, mind, economy, ecosystems,…
This fits with the usual definition of adaptability to the environment, and the less common ability of pursuing an objective function in a wide range of situations, but there's more to it
The objective function is more specific: increasing health
The adaptation is not necessary
Nov 14, 2019 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
HR departments highly scientific algorithms may be (very accurately and systematically) selecting for lemons, discarding peaches
Perfect example of kakonomy in many levels: HR, executives, candidates, managers,… take any two
If you make questions for a job interview without due attention, you may ask something different from what you think you are asking, and you will effectively filter out people that know better than you.
Please do, otherwise meetings will be very frustrating later on.
Instead, anything resembling a blue ocean has been identified & left wild, waiting for others to: 1. do the hard work 2. cite you 3. pay you (industry) maybe for some patents, to capture work @ point 1
Do not restrict yourself to already walked & well known paths, go to the unknown (blue ocean), research, i.e. learn what nobody knows and cannot be taught, you will be the only one w/ your skills. Nobody is better than you at being you.
Focus on what brings joy to you, your intellectual interests. If you are good at something, the society will want more of that thing from you. If that is a virtuous cycle of joy & freedom or a vicious cycle of capitalist oppression depends only on you.
The reward function in economy (i.e. profit) is contrary to ethics, sustainability, environment, health, well-being,…
Super-human AIs running on wetware (i.e. companies) gradually become more efficient at it in a Darwinian process
Ruthless psychopaths are more fit to the economic reward function than anyone else, they are rewarded for it as rulers of those less fit
Similarly to an organism with cancer, harmful individuals prosper, and multiply, out of control, unstoppable, and consuming more resources
Dec 22, 2018 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Thread of threads on how corporations and other organizations are not doing the right thing (and maybe that is why you should quit your job). Related post in parent thread:
