While many pundits and reporters are focused on confidence votes — there’s a huge fiscal & public policy issue that the BQ and Blanchet have raised:

Should OAS be boosted for all seniors (as of 65) or just those over 75?

A 🧵 you won’t want to miss …

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#cdnpoli #cdnecon 2/

Important to start by noting that seniors benefits are a MASSIVE amount of fed spending.

$80,600,000,000 ($80.6 billion) this year alone.

2.7% of GDP. More than 2.5x CCB.

Single biggest expense.

Rising to $100B over next 5 years.

In 2014: $44B (yes it’s almost doubled)

Starmer & Labour have won a huge majority.

It’s truly impressive. Especially at this time of high volatility.

It means lots of good things for a better future.

But, let’s be clear: it’s NOT a wave.

In fact — as a case study, it points to big issues.

A 🧵 1/n

#UKElection2024 #cdnpoli First — they didn’t even crack 34%. So 2 out of 3 people voted for someone else.

That isn’t a bad result, it’s often a feature of modern politics to see a “Europeanization” with splintered choices.

BUT the key thing is they only gained 1.7% across the board.

That’s… weak

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I think what we’ve seen in the reaction of the last 24 hours on school food programs is that the Canadian policy landscape is too big for the small number of analysts and commentators we have to keep up.

A thread 🧵 1/n

#cdnpoli #FeedTheKids #cdnhealth 2/n:

When the news broke yesterday a bunch of people who’ve played on various federalism issues over the years reacted swiftly to say, “but the constitution!”

Some (not all) of the criticism assumes

1) fed program is new and out of left field, and

2) it would face lots of provincial resistance

For context go read @AlexUsherHESA @RoyceKoop @proftomuofr and Paul Wells’ piece today.

In today’s Globe editorial folks on the ed Board express shock @FinanceCanada’s staffing grew 22% over 8 yrs.

Because, they say, feds just transfer cash.

I don’t know what optimal staffing is for the department

But let me explain why this is dumb analysis

🧵… 1/n #cdnpoli First, FIN doesn’t just do the Budget. It also:

▶️ Sets tax policy

▶️ Financial sector

▶️ Manages all major transfers (CHT, CST, equalization)

▶️ Coordinates carbon pricing

▶️ Negotiates a lot of govt investments & manages those assets

▶️ Sets CPP policy & governance

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It is sometimes said 🇨🇦’s fiscal policy is “inflationary”.

That because we have a deficit there is too much “consumption” = demand.

Is this true? And what does it mean?

Some of this is based on flawed understanding of the fiscal framework.

A thread 🧵… 1/n

#cdnpoli #cdnecon The spoiler here is that while there may be ways in which fiscal & monetary can work better together - deficits don’t tell story.

Let’s look at last yr. When CPI peaked.

In 2022-23 🇨🇦 ran a deficit of $35.3 B.

1.3% of GDP, and lowest in the G7 for general govt.
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#cdnpoli

It’s popular to dunk on govt.

Especially the federal govt. Who some think doesn’t do big things well.

These views have limited basis in fact.

There are lots of areas for improvement.

But you’d be surprised at how well the fed govt does on some things.

Here’s a🧵 1/n
#cdnpoli If you travelled this year, you have about a 90% chance of getting through airport security in less than 15 minutes.

And most of the year, the hard working staff @catsa_gc actually exceed their service standard.

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@CPC_HQ casually say there’s no $18 Billion cut to infra. “We will spend the same over longer”

Here’s why that is wrong

1) Two words: Social infra. It’s is $22 B of our national plan. For housing subsidies, repairs, child care spaces, Indigenous community renewal. 2/

If you spend less per year in the context of social infrastructure, it doesn’t just mean you build stuff later - it means you serve less people per year.

It means potentially a smaller Canada Housing Benefit. Fewer child care spaces. Less ability to repair housing stock.

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For those who missed it, @CPC_HQ distributing a “tax guide” to constituents that is blatantly misleading & could cost you $.

Eg 1: they bemoan pollution pricing but don’t mention you can get $300-600 back for family of 4. Facts here: canada.ca/en/revenue-age…

#cdnpoli 2/ If you’re a family, @cpc_hq “tax guide” won’t tell you about Canada Child Benefit. Which means up to ~ $6,500 / $5,500 per year per child.

You register for CCB through CRA and/or as part of your birth registration.

Find out what to do here canada.ca/en/revenue-age… #cdnpoli