Everyone & their grandma' is hyped today about the golden cross we just got on $btc

But ... let's look at it objectively and follow the data

Golden Cross = the 50Day SMA crosses above the 200D SMA from below

Next.. analysis

Strap in for this 🧵, it's gonna be a good one 👇🔥 Over the entire history of $btc

we experienced a total of 9 golden crosses

Of the 9, we can analyse 8 since 1 just happened

Of these 8 ...
➡️ 3 were invalid, price dropping after
➡️ 4 were valid, leading to significant rallies
➡️ 1 was questionable

let's take them 1 by 1

$btc #bitcoin is suffering from a mini-dump this past couple of days.

ATM, we're trading above the $22,630 level.

On the 1D chart, though, it does not look like structure was broken.

Instead we're trading inside the range we've been in for the last 2 weeks or so Let's look at $btc on the 4H chart now

Basically, on the 4H, I'm looking at 4 scenarios;

This is the first scenario - looking for a dip into the FVG, then we get another let up.

Which might be the last leg of this rally before a deeper retracement.

Time for another weekend analysis.

This time I want to start with $dxy

As we were expecting, $dxy looks like it finally found support and bounced

Here is the scenario we were looking for:

I still believe it's likely $dxy will rise towards the 107 area This rise in $dxy would, on average, be correlated with weakness in $spx and $btc

$spx had a bullish week, only to close bearish on Friday b/c of earning reports

ATM, I believe $4,200 is resistance for $spx

$4,100 is support

we may be in for ranging PA next week