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Vipul H. Ramaiya CFTe CMT PGDFM Profile picture
Vipul H. Ramaiya CFTe CMT PGDFM
@vipulramaiya
Data-driven approach to financial markets / Helping traders succeed in market speculation / Managing Director at Xcelcap Investment Research Pvt. Ltd.
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Sep 24, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Position sizing is a key determinant of your P&L. If your bet size is too small, the outcome is meaningless, while if it is too big an account is blown!

A 🧵 on the basics of position sizing for a capital base of Rs. 100,000 based on my approach: Fixed-Percentile Units (or FPU) (2/n) Recommended Approach: Fixed-Percentile Units
The FPU approach standardizes risk-per-trade based on a % of capital.
What you select depends on your personal risk tolerance, but anything <1% would be miniscule for a capital size under a crore, while >4% would be too big.
Oct 4, 2020 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Trading FY '21 Q2 Earnings Season with @jitendrajain

Series 1 (the first of many): Our approach to trading earning announcements in stocks using simple option strategies...
Jun 23, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Trading Markets with a.... COIN TOSS?

A coin has a 50% chance of landing on either heads or tails. Over a large sample size, one may expect this probability to close-in on 50% given a “fair” coin.

Let’s explore this topic from a trading standpoint. 2/n Suppose you’re trading the Nifty index on the basis of a coin toss at 9.15 AM. If the coin lands on heads, you take an intra-day long trade at the open (or a short trade if it lands on tails).
Jun 11, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Based on the poll response, the focus on Positive Expectancy & Risk management seems to be understated, while a visible weightage to Trading psychology and discipline is as expected.

So what really is most essential for successful trading?

https://t.co/kc147pqizy 2/n The only 2 pillars (that really matter) to successful trading are positive expectancy and risk management.

Once these are aligned, everything else takes care of itself. Skills of trading discipline, efficient execution, etc. can all be acquired over a period of time.
Mar 16, 2020 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
(1/n) Should investors be prepared for a longer period of negative returns? Or are the #Nifty and #Sensex in for a prolonged struggle? Let's analyze some data from the #VIX (India VIX) into consideration.

Chart 1: Line Chart of IndiaVIX starting 2007 to present. Image (2/n) As of close today, the India VIX ended at 58.88. The first close above 30.00 was registered on March 9, 2020 (7 days ago).

Let's look at similar instances in the past, where the VIX stayed above 30.00 for over a week (on a closing basis). Image