@CrisisGroup Senior Analyst, Ethiopia.
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Nov 12, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD
Key part of fed govt narrative is TPLF started war by attacking military.
Indeed, no real way to prevent war after that incident.
But, Tigray Prosperity Party exile says PM Abiy stated c.10 days before war that intervention was planned.
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globenewsnet.com/politics/forme…
PP’s Gebremeskel Kassa tells me he attended meeting of ca.400 Addis Ababa City Admin officials around 20-25 Oct 2020.
Then, he was Culture, Arts & Tourism dep head. Month later, he’d be Chief of Staff to Tigray interim president in federal admin that replaced TPLF govt.
2/
Nov 4, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD
Important to be clear about the key elements of the incredibly dangerous #Ethiopia situation.
Abiy has called for all-out mobilisation to defeat Tigray forces as he says the military now can’t do it on its own.
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After further recent advances, Tigray forces will either try and control the Djibouti trade corridor to exert pressure on Addis, or march south towards Addis, operating with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA).
2/
Jun 29, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD
After months of consolidation, last week Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) made good on promises and went on offensive.
With other factors, it’s led to federal operation in Tigray imploding.
theguardian.com/world/2021/jun…
1/6
Interim administrators fled over weekend and yesterday federal troops (ENDF) too, after some looting.
This is huge development and sinks false federal narrative that TPLF/TDF was a spent force, fighting only in couple of pockets.
2/6
Dec 14, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD
There are concerns over cycle of violence as ‘opponents’ become ‘enemies’ and are vanquished.
Such a ‘win’ may be fleeting though, as it breeds resentment.
Hence, @CrisisGroup urged Tigray-federal deal, then dialogue after war broke out.
Amhara forces contributed to this. Yet that led to Amhara seizure of claimed land in Tigray.
That creates intractable dispute, adds to Tigrayan anger, and so leads to more instability.
2/
May 4, 2019 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD:
"Citizenship-based" party forms next week from Ginbot 7, EDP, UDJ, New Gen, Blue, and...AEUP (?)
Backs directly elected president and social justice, private-sector-led economy, constitutional debate, etc
Hope they don't choose shimageleoch leaders!
1/9
That creates potential new 'Liberals' force in Ethiopian politics (also successor to 2005's CUD) and an outlet for those who believe individual rights must trump group rights (that's viciously simplistic, but this is Twitter...)
2/
Apr 22, 2019 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Good to attend, especially as only non-scholar, & given my treatment last yr.
Enjoyed @EyobBalcha no holds barred defense of state-led devt, which got equally forthright response from @mihretum
But thread is about how to frame federalism debate... 1/
I found the federalism discussion too abstract, binary, decoupled from reality. E.g. need for nuanced grounded approach visible just re. SNNP: it shows system has hardened divisions, yet groups' desire for statehood shows power of self-rule principle enshrined by constitution 2/
Apr 19, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Thread on a bad old GoE eco data habit dying hard. Does anyone actually think these tourism figures are credible? $2.6b in 9 months?? >500,000 visitors to tourist attractions??
I don't. Here's why: 1/ fanabc.com/english/2019/0…
Main reason is Tony Hickey has already explained what's going on in 2017. The gov books transit passengers as 'tourists'. Most probably never leave Bole Intl. This is evidenced by huge discrepancy between 'tourists' and actual visitors to e.g. Lalibela. 2/ thereporterethiopia.com/article/who-co…
