@HOMOCOSMICUSv2 @OskaArcher oh thank you! I've been hitting refresh on sci-hub all day ;-)
Shall read through it with a nice beverage to balance things out… @HOMOCOSMICUSv2 @OskaArcher ok, so iamma gunna start my tweet storm here.
First copy of the article/opinion piece/doesn't deserve to be called more than that. That link probably won't last & this'll hurt Nature's business model just a little bit too. 😼 1/×

@DavidOsmond8 @simonahac @sideen_dan @flexibledragnet @xoiiku @Arachnocat14 @DCMacgreiner @stewartbrand Good question btw. There's an answer, but I should compose it properly because the off-the-cuff version will ramble on for 30 tweets… no one needs that right now.
So later tonight then when I have more time. @DavidOsmond8 @simonahac @sideen_dan @flexibledragnet @xoiiku @Arachnocat14 @DCMacgreiner @stewartbrand First I should have at least recognised you came halfway on this, with "…partly related to the high RE penetration".
My motivation is I see too much brightsiding here, and I'd rather make people upset now instead of letting them discover the hurdles down the road themselves. 1/9

@icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA Here's the thing (& now we're going to use *data*, because that's what counts, not self‑serving iReckons): the data for South Australia over the last week.
Note in particular the battery output: 0.5% …so 50% more of that is what? Kinda meh. 1/×
opennem.org.au/energy/sa1/ @icowrich @CejSe @thalia25123534 @BenGlasby1 @QandA There's a reason why no one has been brave enough over the last few years (since the HPR Telsa "megabattery" went in) to put up their own 100MWh-class battery. Or pumped hydro. Not with their own money. Not economic. And people are already upset in South Australia @ prices. 2/×

wut? Not that the horse hasn't already bolted. That confirmation bias really has a kick.

@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher This is what happens when information gets mistaken for comprehension. You are implying that Queensland sets the marginal cost. No it doesn't 1) not all the time 2) not at the same price everywhere. 1/×

https://twitter.com/AdamTheRock1/status/1143360825840717827?s=19

@AdamTheRock1 @OskaArcher Let's first start with an excerpt from your document. Up front at the beginning for a reason. The key to these high prices is when black coal *isn't* setting the marginal cost number.
If @TheRealPBarry's low LCOE numbers meant something than this👇 couldn't be so. 2/×

@simonahac @ZimmermanErik But I am saying there'll be arbitrage opportunity, initially. In fact we can see it already exists in South Australia, especially if you can hold the energy for several days to exploit the largest margin.
This is a non-trivial issue though, so `lil tweet storm… 1/× @simonahac @ZimmermanErik First worth noting that it clearly makes sense in such arbitrage heavy scenarios, a combined solar or wind (or gas!) plant with storage would be optimum for the individual market players.*

Now look at the current, existing data in SA or California. 2/×

@Steve_Pinel @simonahac @JimmyZ51174789 @skaye @jpsburke @timminchin ok, let's do this.
Making use of the excellent data tools at @OpenNem (that @simonahac is involved with) opennem.org.au/#/region/sa/en… & taking the in-state total demand👇 (so leaving aside exports), we reorder this data from highest to lowest.
also… @Banshee2030 & @GlenneDrover 1/× @Steve_Pinel @simonahac @JimmyZ51174789 @skaye @jpsburke @timminchin @OpenNem @Banshee2030 @GlenneDrover This reordered data gets us the total (black line) load duration curve.
It's a way of "de-noise-ing" the signal, and straight away you can see useful things. Like ~10% of the time, demand peaks above 2GW.
It's a cumulative distribution curve, rotated 90° anti-clockwise. 2/×

So New South Wales then? What would it actually take to go all (or just almost mostly) wind, solar & storage?
Start with taking all the data for the first 5 months of 2019, every 5 minutes, and rearrange from highest to lowest. Here, & also with May data on timescale. #whtr 1/× Also, the load duration curve (with the contribution from non-hydro renewables in light blue) & some of the energy types in boxplot stats format.
Because that's just how we roll in these parts. 2/×

@mark_o_cain @AustinVTran @Trish_Corry @Ysolda_Nichols Good, I'm glad someone raised the SSAB HYBRIT case. It's a useful place to start from.
So it is tweet-storm time (again🙄).
There are several of these R&D type initiatives. Decarbonising steel production is extremely important. And hard to do. 1/x @mark_o_cain @AustinVTran @Trish_Corry @Ysolda_Nichols CSIRO: csiro.au/en/Research/MR…
Bill Gates investment: fortune.com/2019/01/09/bos…
…more on HYBRIT: af.reuters.com/article/africa… (note the 500,000 tonnes/year figure for later)

Speaking of Bill Gates… 2/x

https://twitter.com/seeker401/status/1130673129548738560

Basically, on this point👇 Brian Fisher is <shock, horror> correct.
Thinking that Snowy (*existing* 1.0) with its PPA sets the price for "firmed" renewables in perpetuity demonstrates a kind of credulity that doesn't serve us well. 1/x For starters the infrastructure he mentions begin with multi-billion $ transmission lines both to the wind & solar farms, as well as to the Snowy 2, 3 & 4`s. Then the costs get worse from there.
That the price of the renewables themselves is dropping is barely relevant. 2/x

@BenMoretti @KarlAlexPauls Yes, but at this stage primarily for the graphing capabilities. Any data manipulation (which is still modest in #whtr…that'll change) is handled with python numpy. The internals of R don't like me throwing that much data at it in one go, but I'm only using the basic i/f. 1/x @BenMoretti @KarlAlexPauls So the first step in the total rewrite of #whtr is an actual system architecture. Of which maybe a C bootstrap into low level R is called for. I'm also investigating Julia as an option.
But Spark looks interesting. esp since the 550W power unit on my home server failed. 2/x

From the annals of "in the time it takes a lie to (literally) get halfway round the world, sensible energy policy hasn't gotten out of bed yet".
aka re100.eng.anu.edu.au/publications/a… 1/6
…taken from here, ~10 minutes in 2/6 bbc.co.uk/programmes/w17…

@CloudsCreek @PennySharpemlc @GilesParkinson @simonahac So there are a couple of things here to cover. First, the *actual* performance of that Tesla "megabattery"™ in South Australia. Which can only be described as a bit meh. 1/x

https://twitter.com/yestiseye/status/1088414661135847425

@CloudsCreek @PennySharpemlc @GilesParkinson @simonahac In NSW there is the Shoalhaven pumped hydro expansion that people should be following closely. The first serious test of how useful it can be, and the prospects for scaling this option up by several orders of magnitude. 2/x

https://twitter.com/yestiseye/status/1076387826713845766

@JadeRhinos @Proverbs1_7 @WoundedLiberal @brianefallon @AOC So there are two separate things here. The actual reducing CO₂ emissions because of climate change, of which electricity generation is the (most) important but not only factor. And a bunch of other things that are related but don't need to be part of the same bill ultimately.1/x @JadeRhinos @Proverbs1_7 @WoundedLiberal @brianefallon @AOC On the latter, just briefly, the Dems want to be careful of only messaging to the woke, and ignoring all those people in historically Republican suburban districts that they won in 2018. I mean Virginia Beach is now held by a Democrat. 😮
That aside does #GND reduce CO₂? 2/x

@gnievchenko @AdamBlazowski @s04paps @TheGreenParty oh I understood that point well enough… and it's a novel way to frame the situation. It's just that logically you should then take into account once built, that solar & wind don't actually replace fossil fuels, only fuel save. And only up to a point. 1/x @gnievchenko @AdamBlazowski @s04paps @TheGreenParty Whereas a nuclear plant is a 1-for-1 replacement for a fossil fuel plant.
I'll cut to the chase for now, and come back in ~1 hour or so with some real world examples, but on "fuel saving" if you haven't read it, and it seems like you haven't this is the seminal work. 2/x

@GreenpeaceAP So let's look at what Victoria's electricity demand profile was like for the last week, shall we? 1/x @GreenpeaceAP And as a bonus, I'll include the battery storage data in isolation for Victoria as it stood for this week. opennem.org.au/#/regions/vic
Sit tight, you're about to meet #whtr. 2/x

@allanoneilaus @flexibledragnet @JenHogben So I've only had a chance to scan the report, and it might be because of that but on that first pass I have more questions than answers.
Before I do though, of concern Pelican Pt also tripped. I'd like to know what that was about. Very strange & of concern.
1/ @allanoneilaus @flexibledragnet @JenHogben Initially (before scan of report) I'd have said surely some aggressive load shedding would have been worst case, but I think you're right it was not a 2nd system black by a hair.
The 2 factors of the still unexplained 'natural' load shedding & Heywood hanging tough saving system.

@flexibledragnet @JenHogben Why would gas plants need the same protection settings for the voltage dips as detailed in the report? They don't need that protection since they provide their own inertia.
(I want to take a moment to point out how quickly it goes wrong; a major factor.) 1/ @flexibledragnet @JenHogben Now it is technically possible, in theory, to configure wind farms to provide their own inertia. There are trade-offs involved. And it fails the KISS principle. Large external plant. Simple is a good idea. 2/

@ErichSchulz @markcojuangco @BieglerTom That's a slick move, recouping the cost of the asset over the entire lifetime. Not that I entirely disagree in principle, but even I don't push for a 0% discount rate.
If I tried that on @alexbhturnbull & @simonahac would make fun of me. 1/14

https://twitter.com/simonahac/status/1052195061406945283?s=19

@ErichSchulz @markcojuangco @BieglerTom @alexbhturnbull @simonahac Think of nuclear with its ~80 year lifetime versus 20ish for wind or solar. If calcs like yours are ok for pumped hydro, then it should be for anything else. This would of course radically alter the narrative. But let's ignore that in this case. 2/14

@JohnMartinIT @simonahac @dmichie66 @ned2au @DamienReardon1 @Daniel_W_See @BrendanCarton @andypbray @LyleShelton Wholesale works just fine, there are some tweaks (like valuing demand response) that are worthwhile. People just don't like the brutal consequences of an efficient mechanism like merit order pricing. Here the free market part works; it doesn't work across the whole sector. 1/ @JohnMartinIT @simonahac @dmichie66 @ned2au @DamienReardon1 @Daniel_W_See @BrendanCarton @andypbray @LyleShelton So for example, if we'd have been more prescriptive about where wind farms go under the RET, they wouldn't be so strongly correlated in output. But we got the world's test laboratory (South Australia) so it's not all bad.🤨
Point is it's a hybrid market, not 0 or 100% free market

@OskaArcher @MarkDuffett So a slight delay… my team of simians jetted in from Japan overnight where it looks like they had a quite lovely time… they had to drop off a NEG at Labor Party HQ en route however 😼 @OskaArcher @MarkDuffett I figured in the end that the "contour" format was best with a large dataset. Full year's correlation data for SA with other states (Qld though only recently introduced wind generation into the mix, so I used the "shade" format instead)