Keane: Putin has not made any concessions.

He believes the more the war is protracted and the killing goes on, the more he thinks he can weaken the resolve of the United States and European leaders and pressure Zelenskyy to make concessions. 1/

Keane: Putin has broken every deal he has ever been involved in — in Ukraine and Syria.

Zelenskyy wants security guarantees and forces there to make certain Putin won’t attack again. Some means of deterrence has to be worked on. 2/

Keane: The Ukraine-Russia peace plan certainly got off on the wrong start because the first version seemed so one-sided toward Russia.

When they were stitching together a revised plan, they probably would have liked a do-over on the first one. 3/

Trump v. Clinton et al.
(Civil RICO case)

The Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit AFFIRMS "the dismissal with prejudice of the claims against the other defendants, both sanctions orders, and the denials of the reconsideration and disqualification motions."

"These four consolidated appeals concern five separate orders. In 2022, between his terms of office, President Donald Trump filed a lawsuit against dozens of defendants, alleging several claims, including two under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act and three under Florida law."

"The district court dismissed the amended complaint with prejudice for failure to state a claim. On the defendants’ motions, the district court also entered sanctions against Trump and his attorneys, under Rule 11 and under its inherent authority."

The Guardian: Trump sends Steve Witkoff to Moscow.

Trump says “a few disagreements” remain but refuses any summit until a deal is almost done.

Ukraine and Russia still refuse to move on territory and security.

1/

Zelenskyy says he can meet Trump “as soon as possible” and already edits the Geneva draft.

Trump instead sends Army Sec. Dan Driscoll to Kyiv, he suddenly becomes the key negotiator.

2/

The revised US–Ukraine draft raises the troop cap from 600,000 to 800,000. Kyiv calls it “significantly better.”

Russia rejects the changes. Lavrov demands the plan match the Trump–Putin Alaska line which implied territorial surrender.

3/

Think #bitcoin is at one of the most undervalued levels in a very long time.

Any way you look at it, screams "opportunity" ahead of 2026.

Both in absolute & relative terms.

From an on-chain & macro perspective.

I am publishing these charts for the 1st time ever.

🧵

1/ #Bitcoin is currently undervalued in absolute terms based on the MVRV z-Score.

We also haven't seen any excessive valuations / blow-off-top either before the latest correction which suggests that the current bull market still has legs.

2/ #Bitcoin is also undervalued in relative terms if you compare it with gold.

The relative Mayer multiple between Bitcoin and Gold is at multi-year lows.

SHIFTING DYNAMICS IN PAKISTAN’S MILITANT LANDSCAPE...

⚡(PART 1): 🛰️ Drones in Modern Warfare: The New Frontline

Once the domain of elite militaries, drones are now redefining conflict across the globe. From Ukraine’s battlefields to the tribal belts of Pakistan, Aerial Platforms are a game-changer.

⚠️ Militants Take to the Skies

Millants groups have evolved from crude drone experiments to organized aerial operations. Their drones now track convoys, map military positions, drop explosives, and even smuggle weapons, posing a growing threat to state control.

💥 A Poor Man’s Air Force

Cheap, commercial drones like DJI Phantoms and Mavics are being modified for surveillance, grenade drops, and kamikaze-style attacks. More dangerously, military-grade UAVs, often Iranian-supplied are surfacing, offering greater range and payload capacity.

🎯 The State Under Pressure

Security forces rely on drones too, but distinguishing hostile UAVs from civilian or friendly ones is a growing challenge. The constant hum overhead weakens troop morale and spreads fear among civilians.

🏘️ Civilians in the Crosshairs

Markets shut early. Farmers fear their own fields. Villagers are anxious under buzzing skies. In contested areas, drones disrupt daily life and blur the line between friend and foe.

🌐 A Global Pattern Repeats

From ISIS in Iraq to Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza, militant drone warfare follows a clear path: first reconnaissance, then weaponization, and finally mass deployment. Pakistan and Afghanistan are now on the same trajectory.

🚨 What’s Next?

-Targeted assassinations

-Strikes on cities, infrastructure, and religious sites

-Loitering munitions (one-way “suicide” drones)

-Swarm tactics powered by AI (not yet seen in South Asia, but looming)

🛡️ Countermeasures Needed Now

Pakistan must urgently:

Deploy drone detection systems and jammers

Regulate and track commercial drone sales

Secure borders from drone smuggling

Invest in indigenous anti-drone tech

Reassert airspace control to restore public confidence

📌 The Big Picture

Militant Aerial Platforms are no longer an emerging threat—they're an active part of today’s wars. The longer the gap between attacker and defender remains, the more dangerous the skies become.

⚡(PART 2) 🛰️ Historical Evolution of Militant Drone Warfare: Implications for Pakistan

Drones have reshaped modern conflict. Once monopolized by state militaries, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are now in the hands of millitants networks, insurgent groups, and criminal syndicates. This diffusion is driven by cheaper prices, off-the-shelf availability, and foreign sponsors—chiefly Iran.

For militants, drones are tactical equalizers and psychological weapons. Though Pakistan has seen far fewer UAV incidents than the Middle East, recent quadcopter attacks in the tribal belt mark a dangerous shift. With Afghanistan’s jihadist epicenter shifting post-2021, the threat is closer than ever.

Global Trajectory of Non-State Drone Use

🔹 Phase 1: Experimentation (1990s–2014)

Aum Shinrikyo (Japan): Tried dispersing sarin gas via drones.

Al-Qaeda: Explored UAV-based plots from 2001 onward.

Hezbollah & Hamas: Early ISR and psychological warfare with Iranian support.

ISIS (2014): First to use DJI drones for surveillance and media ops.

🔹 Phase 2: Weaponization (2014–2018)

ISIS: Pioneered grenade-dropping quadcopters, launching 200+ strikes in 2017.

Houthis: Deployed Iranian drones for deep strikes into Saudi Arabia & UAE.

Notable Events:
▪ 2018 drone swarm attack on Russian bases
▪ 2018 Maduro assassination attempt in Venezuela

🔹 Phase 3: Normalization (2018–Present)

Hamas (2023): Used >100 drones in Oct 7 attacks to disable Israeli ISR.

Al-Shabaab, HTS, ISIS-Africa: Increasing use across Africa and the Levant.

Western Lone Actors: UAV-enabled infrastructure attack plots.

Key Trends:

-70% of UAV incidents trace back to Iranian proxies.

-DJI drones dominate the market.

-Future: AI swarms, hydrogen drones, bio-mimetic UAVs.

Jihadist Use of UAVs
🛠 Tactical Roles

ISR: Surveillance, mapping, route monitoring

Strike: Precision grenade/IED drops

Logistics: Smuggling weapons or messages

🧠 Strategic Functions

Psychological disruption of troops and civilians

Aerial propaganda footage for recruitment

Undermining state’s air superiority

🚫 Enduring Limitations

Short range, light payloads

Easily jammed

Technical training required

Traditional IEDs still cheaper & deadlier

The Af-Pak Experience

Though lagging behind Middle East theaters, South Asia is catching up.

Al-Qaeda: Explored UAVs (2001–2013), failed to operationalize.

Taliban: Formed drone unit by 2020; halted attacks post-2021 to preserve political legitimacy.

IS-Khorasan: Released detailed manuals (2024) reflecting aspirations.

India–Pakistan Border: Drones used extensively for smuggling; first IED attack on Indian Air Force base in 2021.

Why UAV Use in Af-Pak is Still Limited

Terrain: Mountainous regions increase drone detectability.

Cost: Drones ($500–$10k) cost more than conventional bombs.

Effectiveness: Traditional attacks remain deadly and sufficient.

Skills Gap: Local groups lack the engineering edge seen in ISIS.

Taliban’s Constraints: As a governing entity, drone use risks international backlash. ✅ Conclusion

The evolution of militant drone warfare—from crude 1990s prototypes to today’s loitering munitions—has changed the rules of asymmetric conflict. Pakistan must act decisively to prevent a future where militants dominate the airspace as effectively as they do the ground.

As the TTP and IS-Khorasan begin to experiment with weaponized Aerial Platforms, the time to invest in detection, disruption, and deterrence is now.

📌 Drone warfare is no longer a possibility. It’s a reality. And it’s one Pakistan must be ready for.

⚡(PART 3) 🛰️ Proliferation and Threats of Militant Drone Warfare in Pakistan

🕹️ A deep dive into how commercial drones are reshaping insurgency tactics across Pakistan’s conflict zone

Over the past year, non-state actors in Pakistan have begun deploying Aerial Platforms in tactical operations — particularly in North Waziristan, South Waziristan, and Bannu.

While early incidents were limited in scope, the frequency and coordination of attacks in 2025 suggest a dangerous shift. Militants are not just experimenting; they’re operationalizing drones as force multipliers in asymmetric warfare.

First Confirmed Incidents & Escalation

📍 September 2024: Pakistan officially acknowledges qaudcopter use when TTP targets petroleum vehicles in Mir Ali (North Waziristan) using DJI drones carrying IEDs (400–700g explosives with nails/ball bearings).

📍 Late 2024: At least 6 quadcopter attacks in Mir Ali & Miranshah.

📍 May 2025: 8 quadcopter strikes in Bannu and adjacent tribal areas.

📍 July 23, 2025: Coordinated quadcopter attacks across multiple districts. In Upper South Waziristan, a drone-dropped mortar kills 3 soldiers.

📍 August 1, 2025: quadcopter strike in Bannu injures 6 security personnel.

💥 What started in 2024 as single-drone experiments has evolved into coordinated, multi-drone attacks by mid-2025.

🔹 Key Militant Actors

🟥 Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

Operational drone use since 2022, mostly IED/grenade drops on checkpoints.

Does not officially claim quadcopter attacks, but affiliated Telegram channels release videos showing quadcopter strikes.

Strategy: Harassment and psychological pressure, not mass casualties.

🟥 Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group (HGB)

Based in NW.

Uses drones for ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) to map patrols & plan ambushes (confirmed 2023–24).

🟥 Lashkar-e-Islam (LeI)

Active in Khyber.

Drones used for propaganda and possibly logistical smuggling (narcotics, arms).

🟥 Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)

2025 intercepts suggest urban drone attack planning inside Pakistan.

🟥 Baloch Separatist Factions

By 2025, groups begin experimenting with drones for propaganda & light attacks, continuing their pattern of tech adoption seen with suicide bombings.

🔹 📛 Rise of the IMP (Insurgent Militant Partnership)

Formed: April 11, 2025
Includes: Merged factions of HGB, LeI, and HIIP.

📊 Claims from IMP (April 11–Aug 17, 2025):

Total: 28 quadcopter strikes in NW & Bannu

April: 4 attacks (first on April 13, NW only)

May: 1 attack (NW only)

June: No drone attacks

July: 9 attacks (7 NW, 2 Bannu)

Aug (1–17): 14 attacks (7 NW, 7 Bannu)

📷 Visual Confirmation:

Aug 14: IMP releases 3 images from quadcopter strikes.

One confirmed by Jaish-e-Mukhlis Karwan, a HGB subgroup.

All other strikes: Only claimed, no visual proof yet.

🎥 In videos, militants seen using:

DJI Mavic quadcopters (🇨🇳) armed with:

Modified 40mm M433 HEDP grenades (🇺🇸)

Improvised HE-Frag devices

Plastic bottles with explosive fills

Other payloads observed:

DJI Matrice 300 RTK (🇨🇳) with:

Arsenal OGi-7MA RPGs (🇧🇬)

Custom 30mm VOG-17M grenades

🔹 Technology and Tactics

🛒 Drone Types:

Mostly commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) DJI drones.

💣 Payloads:

400–700g explosive bottles

Modified 40mm grenades, mortar rounds

Shrapnel: ball bearings, nails

⚔️ Tactics:

Combined arms: Drones + small arms to overrun outposts

Propaganda: Aerial videos to project strength

Logistics: Drone supply drops in hard terrain

Emerging trend: FPV (First-Person View) kamikaze drones inspired by Ukraine, Syria, and Gaza

🔻 Limitations:

Short range (2–7km)

Vulnerable to jamming & wind

Exclusive: A Mother was threatened with trespassing in Godley ISD after her daughter was repeatedly s*xually as*aulted at her Texas Elementary School!

I have the insane testimony directly from the mother. Read on 👇

In the fall of 2022, a mother in the Godley Independent School District (Godley ISD Legacy Elementary) noticed something was wrong with her third-grade daughter. The little girl kept coming home talking about a “bully” who wouldn’t leave her alone. At first, the mother did what most parents do: she taught her daughter that words can’t hurt you and that if anyone ever put their hands on her, she should tell a teacher immediately.

One day, her third grader told her that she was in the hallway and "her bully" bumped into her and “grabbed her b*tt and squeezed”... She went on to say that she went to the teacher and the teacher told her that “it was an accident that they didn't mean to do it...”

The incidents didn’t stop. The mother kept asking questions. Each time her daughter complained, teachers told the little girl to “just ignore it” and, incredibly, that the boy was probably doing it “because he likes you.”

Any parent knows that no one gropes a child’s pr*vate areas because they “like” them. Alarmed, the mother began teaching her daughter a different lesson: nobody has the right to touch you, and liking someone is never an excuse for hurting them.

Then, suddenly, the complaints stopped. The mother assumed the problem had gone away.

It hadn’t.

Read on 👇

From the mother - “About three months later, I found out from my oldest daughter’s friend—who was in alternative school—that there was a third grader in alternative school with her. I was like, “Hold on, you have to do something really serious to be in alternative school as a third grader.” (My sister is a teacher in another district, and I used to be a substitute in Grandview.)

That’s when I started really questioning my youngest child and found out it was a boy who was not “bullying” her but groping her and other girls. She said, “Mama, I went to the teacher and they made me write it out. I wasn’t the only one—he was doing it to two of my friends too.”

That’s when I went to the school and asked what was going on. The principal told me she could not give me any information because it involved other students. I went to the superintendent’s office, but they told me he would be out all week at some kind of conference. So then I went to the ISD police, and they told me they couldn’t speak to me either.

I then went back to the principal and requested a copy of the statement my daughter had made. By the time I received a redacted copy, the superintendent should have been back. I read the statement in the principal’s office and had questions—lots of them. She just kept telling me, “It’s been handled. I cannot give you any information about this because it involves a minor.”

Roger Froikin @rlefraim write:
"THANKSGIVING - A COMMENT
1)

Thanksgiving in the USA is rather unique in the world. I do not mean that other nations do not have days where, by tradition, they give thanks for a harvest or for some other historical event.
2)

But Thanksgiving in the USA, the fourth Thursday in the month of November, is unique in that it is a legal holiday, and in recent years it has become more of a common American tradition, uniting an entire nation, than any other holiday in the year.
3)

Any discussion about AI today eventually lands on a single question: is AI a bubble? 🧵👇

Bubbles aren’t always bad. Many big technological shifts, from smartphones to the internet, came out of bubbles. What matters is how a bubble is built and whether the investment remains useful even if it bursts.

In this case, the AI surge is being powered almost entirely by the United States. AI data-center spending has become a major pillar of the US economy.

AI-related capex alone accounts for roughly 40% of US economic growth this year. That is an unusually large share for a single theme.

As author of a long and I think pretty thorough reported piece on the Somali fraud issue that published just before that much-discussesd City Journal piece (), I figure I might as well weigh in on some of the big questions of what's now become a topic of national discussion finallycountyhighway.com/archive/volume…

1) Are Somalis more prone to fraud than any other immigrant or ethnic group? It is obvious that there are aspects of the Somali social system (the clans etc), the post-independence Somali historical experience, and the particularities of Somali migration to the US that created a ripe environment for public service fraud.

This doesn't *just* describe Somalis. As I wrote in County Highway, urban ethnic fraud is one of the building blocks of America. But Somalis are not Jews or Italians. In fact they're very different, proudly different, from Gikuyus or Oromo or other East African groups. Part of what makes this whole topic so uncomfortable is that even in America, ethnic, religious, and national communities aren't sorta just magically interchangeable with one another. The New World actually has an inconsistent record at flattening us all...

2) Having said that, the Somalis fraudster didn't create the bizarre, unaccountable, and almost laughably fraud-prone service delivery system that they later exploited. The model of using government grants to nonprofit organizations as a kind of rent distribution network for favored client groups really took off in Minnesota over the past 15-20 years, and it's festered in something that sure looks like a washing machine for political kickbacks. Elements of the Somali community might have figured out how to benefit from this state of affairs, but it emerged organically, out of authentically Minnesotan social and political conditions.

Step by Step Guide to Building Trading Playbook

The biggest mistake you’re making in your trading is trading without a playbook. You’re not profitable because you’re taking random trades with no structure.

A playbook is one of the most important but overlooked parts of a trader’s journey. Here’s a simple step by step guide to help you build your own.

(1/7) Identify your trading setups

Before creating your playbook, you must know what setups your are trading.

Examples can be (Mean-Reversions, Trend-Continuation, Range Extreme)

Each setup should have its own playbook as how you trade them will vary.

(2/7) What makes your setup profitable

This is a question that many traders still fail to answer when asked about their edge.

There are different types of inefficiencies that can be captured in today's market such as: Behavioural, Informational and Structural ones such as Order flow.

Knowing the "Why" is vital to understand.

On April 3 2024, Esther Wanjiku walked into a showroom in Mombasa ready to buy their 1st car with her boyfriend.

The 2 were armed with hard cash but unbeknownst to them, 3 men had been trailing them ready to make the man pay for what he had done to get this cash

A THREAD🧵

So as the couple negotiated prices thru a broker friend they had tagged along in this trip, the 3 unknown men approached & gave em an offer they couldn't refuse.

This offer convinced em to follow the men to another yard oblivious that they were walking to their death beds.

As soon as the 3 stepped out of the showroom, men laying in wait quickly bundled them into a waiting car that drove off to an undisclosed location

Next place they were found was in Nairobi with their bodies scattered and eyes gogged out. Reason being ? Well, let me tell you.

New: @InsiderEng saw the Witkoff-Dmitriev plan six months ago in draft form—except it was all Dmitriev. Bloomberg reports now Dmitriev told Ushakov he’d pass along a Russian plan and the Americans “can present it as their own”: theins.press/en/politics/28…

Our partner @derspiegel on the story: spiegel.de/ausland/ukrain…

@derspiegel Reuters with their own reporting on how this originated in Moscow: msn.com/en-us/news/wor…