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Oil forecasts for 2025 have a wide range of outcomes, from balanced to a surplus of 4mbpd (IEA). Which one is it?
I’ve counted too many barrels over the years to engage in the debate. The oil market is dynamic while forecasts are static by nature.
But…
1/n
I’ve counted too many barrels over the years to engage in the debate. The oil market is dynamic while forecasts are static by nature.
But…
1/n
…we know that…
1) oil on water (includes floating storage) and oil in transit well surpassed Covid levels.
Part of it reflects inefficiency of the sanctioned Russian & Iranian oil trade as well as the recent US sanctions on Rosneft & Lukoil.
Part of it is an outright bearish oil market = too many barrels chasing too few buyers -> needs lower prices.
2/n: Oil in transit
1) oil on water (includes floating storage) and oil in transit well surpassed Covid levels.
Part of it reflects inefficiency of the sanctioned Russian & Iranian oil trade as well as the recent US sanctions on Rosneft & Lukoil.
Part of it is an outright bearish oil market = too many barrels chasing too few buyers -> needs lower prices.
2/n: Oil in transit
2) Weak Chinese petroleum product consumption:
China is in recession due to its property bust and despite the CCPs desire to steer clear of it by forcing every other industry to build what isn’t required domestically (overcapacity issue) and then dump goods onto global trade.
Because of the latter most observers still don’t get the painful economic status China is in. But China is in it.
Also, the CCP prefers coal fuelled transportation as well as LNG truck driving for the purpose of geopolitics.
Both requires less, not more, diesel and gasoline in 2026 vs 2025. Jet and Naphtha are different story but won’t drive oil buying by refineries => Oil demand by 2nd largest economy globally is bearish. Accept.
However, the CCP may take the absurd to the next level in 2026 and force refineries to build even more floating-roof oil tank storage (as part of meeting an artificial Soviet 2.0 plan within its Investment-led Growth Model) in which case refineries may buy more oil next year, but not for the purpose of producing more petroleum products but solely for storages. If they do so, however, their crude oil buying will be EXTREMELY price sensitive.
Time and State companies oil quotas will tell.
PS: If u care to understand China’s property bust structurally, here is a link to my 7 part Stack series. It remains as valid then as now.
3/n
open.substack.com/pub/alexanders…
China is in recession due to its property bust and despite the CCPs desire to steer clear of it by forcing every other industry to build what isn’t required domestically (overcapacity issue) and then dump goods onto global trade.
Because of the latter most observers still don’t get the painful economic status China is in. But China is in it.
Also, the CCP prefers coal fuelled transportation as well as LNG truck driving for the purpose of geopolitics.
Both requires less, not more, diesel and gasoline in 2026 vs 2025. Jet and Naphtha are different story but won’t drive oil buying by refineries => Oil demand by 2nd largest economy globally is bearish. Accept.
However, the CCP may take the absurd to the next level in 2026 and force refineries to build even more floating-roof oil tank storage (as part of meeting an artificial Soviet 2.0 plan within its Investment-led Growth Model) in which case refineries may buy more oil next year, but not for the purpose of producing more petroleum products but solely for storages. If they do so, however, their crude oil buying will be EXTREMELY price sensitive.
Time and State companies oil quotas will tell.
PS: If u care to understand China’s property bust structurally, here is a link to my 7 part Stack series. It remains as valid then as now.
3/n
open.substack.com/pub/alexanders…
The Supreme Court’s opinion yesterday on Texas’ racial gerrymandering is almost impressive in how it twists the record and the law to get this almost completely wrong. A breakdown follows (thread)
At the outset, I always encourage reading the text of an opinion. In particular, the brilliant Justice Kagan eviscerates the majority’s results-driven opinion in her dissent. Think of the rest of my thread as the CliffsNotes version of what she wrote.
supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf…
supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf…
1. The Court’s unsigned majority opinion complains that the District Court, in finding an improper racial gerrymander, didn’t “honor the presumption” of proper legislative intent in how it construed evidence. But a court’s job is to weigh evidence against claims.
Most people think China’s shrinking population automatically knocks it out of contention for 2041.
Too simplistic.
China is both one of the most prepared and one of the most fragile nations heading into the next monetary era.
Here’s the paradox.
Too simplistic.
China is both one of the most prepared and one of the most fragile nations heading into the next monetary era.
Here’s the paradox.
Vision 2041 =
• BTC as global collateral
• ETH as global settlement
• AI as autonomous demand engine
• Tokenized assets as the financial substrate
• Networks > nations
• Exit > voice
The real test is simple:
Which countries are aligned with this architecture?
• BTC as global collateral
• ETH as global settlement
• AI as autonomous demand engine
• Tokenized assets as the financial substrate
• Networks > nations
• Exit > voice
The real test is simple:
Which countries are aligned with this architecture?
Demographics: A Slow Crisis, Not an Immediate Collapse
China’s population decline is unprecedented:
• Fertility near 1.0
• Rapid aging
• Worker-to-retiree ratio collapsing
• Accelerating rural depopulation
It’s a massive drag on long-term GDP.
But demographic decay is slow.
Systemic shifts are fast.
China still has time — if it adapts.
China’s population decline is unprecedented:
• Fertility near 1.0
• Rapid aging
• Worker-to-retiree ratio collapsing
• Accelerating rural depopulation
It’s a massive drag on long-term GDP.
But demographic decay is slow.
Systemic shifts are fast.
China still has time — if it adapts.
Trump's new national security strategy is truly his,l but no strategy. Key insights:
1. No objection against Russia or its war of aggression in Ukraine.
2. "As a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine, European relations with Russia are now deeply attenuated..
whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
1. No objection against Russia or its war of aggression in Ukraine.
2. "As a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine, European relations with Russia are now deeply attenuated..
whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
...many Europeans regard Russia as an existential threat. Managing European relations with Russia will require significant U.S. diplomatic engagement, both to reestablish conditions of strategic stability across the Eurasian landmass, and to mitigate the risk of conflict between Russia and European states."
The US is no longer an ally of Europe but a mediator between Europe & russia.
The US is no longer an ally of Europe but a mediator between Europe & russia.
3. "It is a core interest of the United States to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, in order to stabilize European economies, prevent unintended escalation or expansion of the war, and reestablish strategic stability with Russia, as well as to enable the post-hostilities reconstruction of Ukraine to enable its survival as a viable state."
Trump wants to end Russia's war against Ukraine to help Russia!
Trump wants to end Russia's war against Ukraine to help Russia!
An important article in my home-state newspaper, Fresno Community Alliance.
Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv. Feels far.
But what the UN documented in southern Ukraine is directly relevant to the US, EU, UK...
Drones hunting civilians🧵
fresnoalliance.com/un-issues-a-dr…
Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv. Feels far.
But what the UN documented in southern Ukraine is directly relevant to the US, EU, UK...
Drones hunting civilians🧵
fresnoalliance.com/un-issues-a-dr…
In Oct 2025, the UN confirmed what Ukrainians call “human safari.” Small commercial drones — the kind you buy at Target — track a person in real time and kill them from above. Investigators traced the attacks to Russian drone units operating under a unified command.
It is state policy — a coordinated campaign to terrorize and depopulate entire regions.
Why should Californians care?
Because these are the same drones used here for farming, wildfire mapping, filmmaking, deliveries.
Why should Californians care?
Because these are the same drones used here for farming, wildfire mapping, filmmaking, deliveries.
The world isn’t splitting into East vs West.
It’s splitting into Legacy Rails vs 2041 Rails.
The future is already here — just unevenly distributed across monetary systems.
It’s splitting into Legacy Rails vs 2041 Rails.
The future is already here — just unevenly distributed across monetary systems.
Vision 2041 =
• BTC as global collateral
• ETH as global settlement
• AI as autonomous demand engine
• Tokenized assets as the financial substrate
• Networks > nations
• Exit > voice
The real question: Who’s aligned with this new physics?
• BTC as global collateral
• ETH as global settlement
• AI as autonomous demand engine
• Tokenized assets as the financial substrate
• Networks > nations
• Exit > voice
The real question: Who’s aligned with this new physics?
RUSSIA — Prepared by Fragmentation
Sanctions didn’t just isolate Russia.
They pushed it to exit the legacy system and build parallel rails.
Russia is early to:
• Non-SWIFT settlement
• Commodity-backed tokens
• Crypto-based cross-border flows
• Alternative collateral systems
• State-level digital infrastructure
Sometimes the future emerges through constraint.
Sanctions didn’t just isolate Russia.
They pushed it to exit the legacy system and build parallel rails.
Russia is early to:
• Non-SWIFT settlement
• Commodity-backed tokens
• Crypto-based cross-border flows
• Alternative collateral systems
• State-level digital infrastructure
Sometimes the future emerges through constraint.
CHILDLINE (18+) - Part Two 👀💊📢
#DownTheRabbitHole NSPCC/Esther Rantzen/ Andrew/Blair/Starmer/Little Mix/ BT ArtBox Campaign
#DownTheRabbitHole NSPCC/Esther Rantzen/ Andrew/Blair/Starmer/Little Mix/ BT ArtBox Campaign
1. That’s Life! - Childline… He looks really rough in this picture! 😂😂
2.
Tomas Vajda wrote, "The greatest, undeniable achievement of the Palestinian Islamist movement was not military - it was psychological. They managed to turn history upside down.
1)
1)
The Palestinian movement didn’t emerge from some noble dream of “liberation”. It grew out of the 20th-century pan-Islamist and pan-Arab projects - the same old attempt to restore a civilizational empire, dressed up as modern resistance.
2)
2)
The Muslim Brotherhood spread its ideology from Egypt in the 1930s, built its networks in Gaza and Jerusalem, and by 1987 Hamas simply became its Palestinian franchise. This was never about founding a state; it was about reviving an Islamic sphere of control.
3)
3)
Everyone assumes Japan will always be a “safe haven.”
Stable. Predictable. Low inflation.
The anti-chaos asset of global macro.
But that assumption collapses under Vision 2041.
Japan is not prepared for what comes next — and the cracks are already visible.
Stable. Predictable. Low inflation.
The anti-chaos asset of global macro.
But that assumption collapses under Vision 2041.
Japan is not prepared for what comes next — and the cracks are already visible.
Japan is built on a 20th-century foundation:
• Demographic collapse
• Debt >250% of GDP
• Zero immigration
• A shrinking tax base
• Yield curve control masking structural weakness
• A currency protected by reputation, not fundamentals
Vision 2041 breaks that equilibrium.
• Demographic collapse
• Debt >250% of GDP
• Zero immigration
• A shrinking tax base
• Yield curve control masking structural weakness
• A currency protected by reputation, not fundamentals
Vision 2041 breaks that equilibrium.
The future monetary system will be collateral-first, not currency-first.
BTC as global collateral.
ETH as settlement.
AI as demand engine.
In that world, the yen loses the privilege of “safe haven status” because it has nothing to back it except nostalgia.
BTC as global collateral.
ETH as settlement.
AI as demand engine.
In that world, the yen loses the privilege of “safe haven status” because it has nothing to back it except nostalgia.
NEW info on shipwreck attack. Gets worse.
The 2 survivors climbed atop wreckage and waved to overhead.
"Some of the people viewing the video thought ... could have been an attempt to surrender"
Others "said the most logical explanation was ... signaling for a rescue."
1/
The 2 survivors climbed atop wreckage and waved to overhead.
"Some of the people viewing the video thought ... could have been an attempt to surrender"
Others "said the most logical explanation was ... signaling for a rescue."
1/
2/ What Adm. Bradley and Gen. Caine told Congress raises credibility concerns.
"The military officers briefing Congress on Thursday said the survivors could have been trying to beckon to other alleged drug traffickers in a plane or boat to come get them...."
But get this ...
"The military officers briefing Congress on Thursday said the survivors could have been trying to beckon to other alleged drug traffickers in a plane or boat to come get them...."
But get this ...
3/
"But some lawmakers viewing the video rejected that interpretation. There were no other unknown aircraft or boats in visual range, and no other boats involved in drug trafficking could have rescued them."
And even worse, if I am understanding this logic correctly, ...
"But some lawmakers viewing the video rejected that interpretation. There were no other unknown aircraft or boats in visual range, and no other boats involved in drug trafficking could have rescued them."
And even worse, if I am understanding this logic correctly, ...
Age gaps don't lead to divorces. This is data from a COMPLETE SAMPLE of marriages in England and Wales. A few popular studies come up with wrong answers by using skewed data with small samples.
For some reason people LIKE the false idea that age-gap relationships can't work, so they continually share the bad data. I guess they are jealous?
To mark the 2nd anniversary of LLM360, we are proud to release K2-V2: a 70B reasoning-centric foundation model that delivers frontier capabilities.
As a push for "360-open" transparency, we are releasing not only weights, but the full recipe: data composition, training code, logs, and intermediate checkpoints.
About K2-V2:
🧠 70B params, reasoning-optimized
🧊 512K context window
🔓 "360-Open" (Data, Logs, Checkpoints)
📈 SOTA on olympiad math and complex logic puzzles
As a push for "360-open" transparency, we are releasing not only weights, but the full recipe: data composition, training code, logs, and intermediate checkpoints.
About K2-V2:
🧠 70B params, reasoning-optimized
🧊 512K context window
🔓 "360-Open" (Data, Logs, Checkpoints)
📈 SOTA on olympiad math and complex logic puzzles
We evaluated K2 across general knowledge, STEM, coding, and agentic tool use.
The goal? To show open models need not be smaller, weaker versions of closed ones.
K2 outperforms models of similar sizes, and performs close to models that are larger.
🔗 Check out the model here:
Generously sponsored by @mbzuai.huggingface.co/LLM360/K2-V2
The goal? To show open models need not be smaller, weaker versions of closed ones.
K2 outperforms models of similar sizes, and performs close to models that are larger.
🔗 Check out the model here:
Generously sponsored by @mbzuai.huggingface.co/LLM360/K2-V2
K2 introduces three "reasoning effort" modes—Low, Medium, and High—allowing you to balance cost vs. capability.
K2-High excels on hard math tasks like AIME 2025 (80.2%) and HMMT, while K2-Medium is the sweet spot for efficiency.
K2-High excels on hard math tasks like AIME 2025 (80.2%) and HMMT, while K2-Medium is the sweet spot for efficiency.
