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May 8
1/5 MAPPING ANTI-ELECTION INTEGRITY NETWORKS—Past & Present

Anti-Election Integrity Campaign Launched to Mandate Mass-Scale No-Excuse Vote-By-Mail Option as Constitutional Right in AZ Constitution to Counter Rising Republican Election Integrity Movement

azmirror.com/2026/05/06/cam…
2/5 MAPPING ANTI-ELECTION INTEGRITY NETWORKS—Past & Present

Anti-Election Integrity Campaign Launched to Mandate Mass-Scale No-Excuse Vote-By-Mail Option as Constitutional Right in AZ Constitution to Counter Rising Republican Election Integrity Movement

azmirror.com/2026/05/06/cam…
3/5 MAPPING ANTI-ELECTION INTEGRITY NETWORKS—Past & Present

Anti-Election Integrity Campaign Launched to Mandate Mass-Scale No-Excuse Vote-By-Mail Option as Constitutional Right in AZ Constitution to Counter Rising Republican Election Integrity Movement

azmirror.com/2026/05/06/cam…
Read 6 tweets
May 8
ShinyHunters has successfully hit the big leagues.

ShinyHunters successfully disrupting exams, schooling, grading, government funded research projects, dissertation work, graduations, financial aid, financial loss, potentially immigration complications, and more, has elevated this from "a silly shenanigan" to "major national security incident" and being labeled as an attack on United States critical infrastructure.

If I had to guess, the FBI, NSA, CIA, DIA, CISA, ICE, and DOE are all involved due to the disruption of this.

This isn't the largest extortion campaign I've seen, but this is definitely in the top ten. This is what the kids call a "Certified Hood Classic".
On social media parents are outraged and are commenting they want the United States to respond MILITARILY.

They're unironically calling for Hegseth to authorize military action against ShinyHunters and DRONE STRIKE them.

Holy cow
Note: there is a 0% chance they're drone striked. I've only seen a nerd drone striked once. These are just angry normies who don't understand computers and are raging online.
Read 3 tweets
May 8
1/ On Feb 21 I told my boss aka my wife @LTwolfe that I had my third conviction call not yet appreciated + to buy a basket

*In 2016 it was NVDA, pitched publicly at Invest For Kids in Chicago (80x+) when Lux portfolio company Zoox was using NVDA chips and I predicted the narrative would change from gaming consoles PS4/Xbox to simulation and AI…
2/ here was the 2016 tweet on NVDA…
3/ In the fall is 2024 I pitched SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung and we bought in our pa

Mostly because I had read a technical paper about LLMs and inference on device with local flash (again changing narrative from commodity memory players to coveted attach rates on HBM AND edge)
Read 9 tweets
May 8
The five-second epistemology of one battle dressed up as two — the destroyers withdrawing from the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian missile fire, the strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm as cover for the withdrawal, and the press release reporting tit for tat to hide a defeat at sea.

The seminary will report two events from Day 69 evening.

One. US strikes Iran — Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Port hit by Tomahawk missiles per Fox.

Two. Iran strikes US — destroyers under sustained IRGC missile barrage forced to fire CIWS, then withdraw from the Strait per CBS.

The seminary will frame this as escalation in both directions. Tit for tat. Both sides claim a hit. Equal exchange. The press release writes itself.

The kitchen reads one engagement. The empire’s destroyers were driven out of the Strait of Hormuz under sustained Iranian missile fire that exhausted layered defense and forced terminal-range CIWS engagement. The strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm were the empire’s cover fire for the withdrawal — symbolic targets selected to give the press release something to print while the actual military reality was the United States Navy losing the geographic position the United States Navy was in the Strait to hold.

One battle. Two press releases. A defeat at sea, dressed up as an exchange of fire.

I. THE KIND OF WAR.

Clausewitz: the supreme act of judgment is recognizing the kind of war one is in.

The kind of war is the kind where the defender drives the attacker out of the contested water and the attacker fires Tomahawks at coastal targets to make the withdrawal look like a punitive strike. The Tomahawks are the press release. The withdrawal is the war.

CIWS firing means the layered defense had failed. SM-2 missed. SM-6 missed. ESSM missed. RAM missed. The destroyers were down to twenty-millimeter Gatling guns at terminal range. CIWS fires for roughly thirty seconds before the magazine empties. The destroyers fired CIWS. The destroyers withdrew. Withdrawal under fire after CIWS engagement is a defeat at sea recorded by the destroyer’s own combat logs whether the press release reports it or not.

The Bandar Abbas and Qeshm strikes were timed to coincide. The empire fired Tomahawks at the very moment the destroyers were withdrawing under fire, so the press release could report two events as if they were a balanced exchange instead of one event with a winner and a loser.

— The kind of war is the kind where you fire missiles at the lighthouse to distract from the fact that your ship is leaving.

II. FRICTION.

Clausewitz: no plan survives contact.

The empire’s plan presupposed that destroyer-launched layered defense plus CIWS would absorb Iranian anti-ship missile pressure indefinitely, and that Tomahawk strikes on coastal Iran would suppress IRGC launch positions in real time and reduce the missile pressure on the destroyers.

Both presuppositions failed within the same engagement. The layered defense exhausted itself to the point of CIWS firing. The Tomahawk strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm did not suppress the IRGC missile pressure — the destroyers had to leave anyway. The strikes were not suppression. The strikes were performative. The IRGC missile batteries are on hundreds of kilometers of Iranian coastline. Tomahawks at two ports do not silence the coast.

The friction is the magazine. CIWS magazines empty in thirty seconds. Iran has more anti-ship missiles than the empire’s destroyers carry interceptors. The empire’s plan treated the engagement as a single round. Iran was prepared for multiple rounds.

— The plan ran out of interceptors before Iran ran out of missiles. The Tomahawks at the lighthouse did not refill the interceptor magazine.Image
III. THE CULMINATING POINT.

Clausewitz: the offensive past its culmination is the defender’s gift.

The empire’s offensive culminated on Day 1. Every kinetic action since has been a gift to the defender. The Bandar Abbas strikes are gifts. The Qeshm strikes are gifts. The defender accepts the gifts and adds them to the reparations bill Rezaei published two hours earlier.

The withdrawal is not a gift. The withdrawal is the defender’s seizure. The defender now holds the Strait without the destroyer screen. The defender’s hold is now demonstrated. Other navies will know. Other admirals will know. Other coalition commitments will be reconsidered.

The Tomahawks at Bandar Abbas were the empire’s attempt to make the gift look like a transaction. Iran does not transact with gifts. Iran adds them to the bill.

— You cannot make a withdrawal look like a victory by firing at empty ports as you leave.

IV. MORAL FORCES.

Clausewitz: what decides wars regardless of material balance.

Three quarters of the war is moral. The moral is who is keeping the books and who is reading the press release.

Iran is keeping the books. Karbala does not forget. The reparations demand at 8:00 PM Eastern was the books’ published statement. The strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm have been added to the books. The destroyers’ withdrawal under CIWS fire has been added to the books. The books grow with every engagement.

The empire is reading the press release. The press release reports two events as a balanced exchange. The press release does not report CIWS as last-resort engagement. The press release does not report withdrawal under fire as defeat at sea. The press release reports tit for tat because tit for tat is what the press release was written to report regardless of what happened.

Iran’s destroyers did not engage. Iran’s submarines did not deploy. The pressure on the empire’s destroyers came from coastal anti-ship missile batteries that did not have to move.

— Iran has the books. The empire has the press release. The press release does not refloat the destroyers in the Strait the destroyers just left.

V. SCHWERPUNKT.

Clausewitz: not a noun but a relation.

The empire’s Schwerpunkt was the destroyer screen in the Strait. Schwerpunkt is the relation between the army and the army’s ability to be in the place the army needs to be. The destroyer screen could not be in the Strait under sustained Iranian missile fire. The Schwerpunkt collapsed at sea.

Iran’s Schwerpunkt is the relation between the coastline and the missile batteries. The coastline did not move. The missile batteries did not move. The destroyers had to move. The Schwerpunkt belongs to whoever does not have to move under fire.

— Tomahawks in two ports do not hold a Strait. The destroyers held the Strait. The destroyers left.
VI. THE COVER FIRE.

Clausewitz: the operation succeeds when the operation’s logic is invisible to the enemy.

The cover fire was the strikes. The withdrawal was the operation. The seminary is reading the cover fire as the operation and missing the operation entirely.

A withdrawal at sea under fire requires diversion. The diversion can be active jamming, smoke, deception, or cruise missile strikes against coastal positions that force the defender to reallocate sensor capacity. The Tomahawks at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm were the empire’s diversion. The diversion bought time for the destroyers to break contact and exit the Strait.

The diversion’s secondary purpose was the press release. The press release needed the strikes to exist so the press release could report two events. Two events let the press release report tit for tat. Tit for tat lets the press release avoid reporting withdrawal under fire after CIWS engagement.

— The Tomahawks were the smoke. The withdrawal was the move. The press release sells the smoke as the move.

VII. WAR PLANS.

Clausewitz: the plan that has lost what the plan was for is paper.

The empire’s plan needed the destroyers in the Strait. The destroyers in the Strait was the plan’s claim of presence. The plan’s claim of presence was what made the architecture’s tollbooth contestable on the empire’s framework. With the destroyers out of the Strait, the tollbooth is uncontested.

The reparations demand at 8:00 PM Eastern was Iran calling the question. The destroyers leaving at midnight is the answer being delivered. The empire’s Tomahawks are the empire pretending the question is still open. The question is not open. The destroyers are not in the Strait.

— The plan needed the ship to be in the place. The ship left the place. The plan is paper. The Tomahawks at the lighthouse do not bring the ship back.
Read 4 tweets
May 8
Day 4 of the 57th 9/11 pretrial hearing at Guantanamo Bay. All four defendants waived right to attend this morning. Image
1st issue: The government's presentaion arguing against suppressing al Hawsawi's statements included information sealed in 2017. Hawsawi's lead counsel objected use is prejudicial and warranted a full briefing.
The government played damning recordings of conversations defendant Mohammad had with fellow prisoner during the period of his "clean team" interrogations on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Read 44 tweets
May 8
Europe has to realize that there are two global military powers that it will have to find an arrangements with to safeguard its future security:
🇺🇸 the US
🇺🇦 Ukraine

These two have the highest defence materiel production output, and troops from these two are present in the
1/9 Image
highest number of nations around the globe (Ukrainian troops are fighting russians in every nation, where russia has allied with the regime; a will to fight our enemies that is sorely lacking in the rest of Europe).
Minor powers like the UK or middling powers like France,
2/9
can't provide as much security (troops, defence equipment, tech innovation, will to fight, etc.) as Ukraine or the US.
While Ukrainians fight, innovate and produce vast amounts of war materiel, Europe continues to fiddle as the fire of war spreads across the continent.
3/9
Read 9 tweets
May 8
Canvas is hacked and stressing out 230+ Million students, teachers and staff during finals. What does this mean and how do we stay safe? What are the next steps for the 8,800 affected schools during finals. Answered below in my video:
Cyber criminals are likely to attempt to phish students affected (their email addresses and some phone numbers are showing up in the breach lists) pretending to be Canva, professors, or updates from their school. Do not click/download or provide passwords, MFA codes, etc. Verify with your school or professor using another method of communication on a confirmed channel before taking sensitive actions.
If you receive messaging through text, email or phone call about Canvas and account recovery that is also likely a phishing message. Be extra politely paranoid and verify any communication is authentic with your school IT with another communication method before taking action.
Read 3 tweets
May 7
Hauge to me and Pettis: "Don't hide behind the language of "imbalances." If you think China is a competitive threat and that wealthy nations should actively use industrial policy to keep it at bay, say so"

I object to the idea that arguing about imbalances is hiding ...
China's imports have grown in volume terms at an annual rate of ~ 1% over the last 5 years. China's exports have grown at a faster rare that world trade. that is a real imbalance, not a fake one ...
China's savings rate is exceptionally high (comparable to Norway which saves its oil and gas proceeds as a matter of policy and Singapore which hides its investment returns from its citizens and the budget) and China's consumption to GDP ratio is incredibly low
Read 9 tweets
May 7
We finally know why LLMs hallucinate. It's not the model. It's the geometry.

@OpenAI text-embedding-3-large: 91/3072 dimensions do real work.

@GeminiApp gemini-embedding-001: 80/3072 dimensions do real work.

~97% of your vector database is mathematically empty. Your RAG system is retrieving from noise.

@ashwingop and I present "The Geometry of Consolidation" - a proof that RAG compression has a hard floor no algorithm can beat, set by a single spectral number your embedding model cannot escape.

Every hallucination your RAG pipeline produces? This is why.

Paper + results: github.com/niashwin/geome…Image
Image
Here's the intuition behind that chart.

Your embedding model promises 3072 dimensions of storage.

All the real semantic signal? Crammed into 91 of them. The other 2,981 are noise your retrieval system searches through anyway.

This isn't a training failure. It's not fixable with a bigger model. It's what the geometry of these spaces actually looks like under the hood.

We call it "effective dimensionality".Image
We present "The Geometry of Consolidation."

We prove that for any RAG compression algorithm:
- centroid
- product quantization
- learned routing

anything... there is a hard lower bound on retrieval error:

εid ≥ 1 − c · m · (θ′/d̄)^(d_eff/2)

One number sets the floor: d_eff, the effective dimension of your cluster. You cannot engineer around it.Image
Read 4 tweets
May 7
SCOOP: I got new details about the DNC’s autopsy, per people familiar with the report.

The autopsy doesn’t dive deep into the electoral impact of Biden administration's handling of Gaza, despite speculation that it might.

One person described the report as "gobbledygook."

🧵
That’s notable, as questions linger about whether the controversy cost Harris votes.

Axios reported that officials working on the autopsy concluded that Harris “lost significant support because of the Biden administration's approach to the war in Gaza.” axios.com/2026/02/22/dnc…
People with knowledge of the report’s contents described it to me as strikingly sparse — and hardly a detailed anatomy of the party’s 2024 defeat.
Read 10 tweets
May 7
Stanford has a Warhol photo archive and in the negatives section we have a dinner party with Roy Cohn. I know Cohn was a frequenter of Studio 54 but this gives us a look at the connection that was likely closer. Image
Of course Trump famously wanted Warhol paintings for his tower but ended up not liking them so he didn’t pay. Image
Image
“…at the time, two of Studio 54’s owners were themselves in trouble, for tax evasion, obstruction of justice and conspiracy charges, and one of them had hired notorious lawyer Roy M. Cohn.” time.com/3207118/studio…
Read 7 tweets
May 7
🚨 The U.S. Court of International Trade struck down President Trump’s 10% global tariff on imported goods, holding he exceeded his authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act. Image
The majority said Congress only gave presidents limited emergency tariff powers under Section 122, aimed at specific international payments crises tied to the old Bretton Woods financial system.

The Trump administration unlawfully used that law to target modern trade deficits.
Judge Timothy Stanceu dissented, arguing courts must defer to the President’s economic findings and that Section 122 gives the President broad authority to respond to balance-of-payments problems.

He also says the majority granted summary judgment too early in the case.
Read 5 tweets

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