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Recent
SitRep - 04/04/25 - Russian terror in Kryvyih Rih, again.
An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While Trump keeps hoping, Russia shows its true intentions by terrorizing Kryvyi Rih, killing lots of people including children.
REPOST=appreciated
1/X
An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While Trump keeps hoping, Russia shows its true intentions by terrorizing Kryvyi Rih, killing lots of people including children.
REPOST=appreciated
1/X
Missed the latest SitRep? Check it out here
As usual we start with Russian losses over the past 24 hours.
Here's a fun question to start the thread🧵
What differentiates the countries in orange from the countries in blue?
Why did the orange countries plunge into ultra-low fertility, while the blue ones have maintained themselves better?
What differentiates the countries in orange from the countries in blue?
Why did the orange countries plunge into ultra-low fertility, while the blue ones have maintained themselves better?
The countries in the first set are "Group 1 Nations". In the second set, they're "Group 2 Nations".
Notice anything about their growth rates? One thing is that they've all grown to similar enough levels.
Another is the acceleration of the pace of growth.
Notice anything about their growth rates? One thing is that they've all grown to similar enough levels.
Another is the acceleration of the pace of growth.
In Group 1, nations started off a bit richer, and they grew at a more stable pace.
In Group 2, nations started off poorer, but they caught up to Group 1 by growing faster in the latter half of the 20th century.
Their fertility rate trajectories followed suit.
In Group 2, nations started off poorer, but they caught up to Group 1 by growing faster in the latter half of the 20th century.
Their fertility rate trajectories followed suit.
Why do so many sermons today feel either like a Bible lecture or a self-help talk?
The Puritans preached differently—and it wasn’t boring. It was transformative. 1/9 🧵
The Puritans preached differently—and it wasn’t boring. It was transformative. 1/9 🧵
The Puritan sermon structure was very different than how many preachers arrange their sermons today.
Some might accuse the Puritans of using the text like a diving board, not practicing proper exegesis and exposition. But that's not what they did. 2/
Some might accuse the Puritans of using the text like a diving board, not practicing proper exegesis and exposition. But that's not what they did. 2/
The first move in typical Puritan sermon was the exposition of the text, many times just a single verse.
They would discuss the context and it's relevance; using logic and cross references to explain the text. They were aiming to ground their sermon biblically. 3/
They would discuss the context and it's relevance; using logic and cross references to explain the text. They were aiming to ground their sermon biblically. 3/
Jesse Myer just put on a masterclass to explain all things Strategy ($MSTR, $STRK, and $STRF).
Whether you follow Strategy closely or not, it is refreshing to hear the entire investment thesis in a single concise video.
Here is a summary with my added research.
A 🧵:
Whether you follow Strategy closely or not, it is refreshing to hear the entire investment thesis in a single concise video.
Here is a summary with my added research.
A 🧵:
1/ BTC Yield: The Main Metric
Strategy's main metric is "BTC Yield", the amount of new Bitcoin per share.
This is done by turning dilution into a Bitcoin yield strategy.
By issuing stock or debt to buy BTC, they’re betting BTC outpaces their cost of capital.
As long as Bitcoin rips faster than dilution spreads, each share gets more BTC exposure — not less.
It’s accretive dilution: weaponized debased fiat to stack the hardest form of money.
Strategy's main metric is "BTC Yield", the amount of new Bitcoin per share.
This is done by turning dilution into a Bitcoin yield strategy.
By issuing stock or debt to buy BTC, they’re betting BTC outpaces their cost of capital.
As long as Bitcoin rips faster than dilution spreads, each share gets more BTC exposure — not less.
It’s accretive dilution: weaponized debased fiat to stack the hardest form of money.
2/ $MSTR vs. $STRK vs. $STRF
$MSTR is the public equity vehicle — a leveraged Bitcoin operating company funded through a $21 billion dollar "At The Market" (ATM) equity offering and a $21 billion dollar convertible bond offering.
$STRK is like a preferred stock version of convertible debt. It pays out like a bond but with embedded Bitcoin upside (convertible 10-1 into MSTR shares).
Like MSTR, there’s a $21 billion ATM program for STRK — when the ATM is triggered, it raises the yield, attracting bond managers hungry for income.
Like Ben Werkman describes it, this dynamic makes STRK "self-healing" — the more ATM issued, the higher the yield it offers.
Eventually, the bond market is going to notice and immediately buy up the offering, therefore pushing down the yield while increasing the underlying price.
$STRF is an ordinary bond repackaged as preferred stock — it had an unparalleled yield of 11.8% at original issuance.
The yield is paid in cash, and backed by over-collateralized BTC.
Because markets still heavily mispricing Bitcoin risk (or lack thereof), STRF’s yield is far higher than its actual credit risk.
That creates alpha for bond managers, allowing them to outperform peers.
As long as BTC compounds >25% annually, STRF becomes massively accretive to MSTR shareholders.
$MSTR is the public equity vehicle — a leveraged Bitcoin operating company funded through a $21 billion dollar "At The Market" (ATM) equity offering and a $21 billion dollar convertible bond offering.
$STRK is like a preferred stock version of convertible debt. It pays out like a bond but with embedded Bitcoin upside (convertible 10-1 into MSTR shares).
Like MSTR, there’s a $21 billion ATM program for STRK — when the ATM is triggered, it raises the yield, attracting bond managers hungry for income.
Like Ben Werkman describes it, this dynamic makes STRK "self-healing" — the more ATM issued, the higher the yield it offers.
Eventually, the bond market is going to notice and immediately buy up the offering, therefore pushing down the yield while increasing the underlying price.
$STRF is an ordinary bond repackaged as preferred stock — it had an unparalleled yield of 11.8% at original issuance.
The yield is paid in cash, and backed by over-collateralized BTC.
Because markets still heavily mispricing Bitcoin risk (or lack thereof), STRF’s yield is far higher than its actual credit risk.
That creates alpha for bond managers, allowing them to outperform peers.
As long as BTC compounds >25% annually, STRF becomes massively accretive to MSTR shareholders.
Trump's plan to crash the market and force Fed rate cuts could backfire spectacularly—fueling stagflation, sinking the dollar, and exposing the rot at the heart of the U.S. financial empire
Donald Trump didn’t ask permission from the Fed before launching his beloved tariff war. And that decision could spark a perfect storm of stagflation, dollar devaluation, and financial chaos.
1/24
1/24
Trump’s strategy is clear: crash the stock market, slow the economy, and force the Fed to cut interest rates—making it cheaper to refinance $9 trillion in debt this year.
2/24
2/24
So not only has Norm Eisen been interfering in our elections, he apparently does so all over the world including Poland. His friend Jeff from Radio Free Europe, our global propaganda outlet, was also involved.
Isn’t it funny how Norm and his fellow color revolutionaries aren’t calling for Ukraine to hold elections? Seems like they have a dictator.
Isn’t it funny how Norm and his fellow color revolutionaries aren’t calling for Ukraine to hold elections? Seems like they have a dictator.
It is not a surprise that Jeff now works at Georgetown and in the disinformation industry with the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.
1/ Not to play the "I'm not a racist, I have black friends" card, but even my black friends know the absolute state of the black community in the US is off the charts levels of bad.
Everybody, black and white, knows it. It's a cancelable offense to say it out loud.
Everybody, black and white, knows it. It's a cancelable offense to say it out loud.
2/ The Civil Rights Inquisition has made open discussion of this fact so terrible in the eyes of pop culture that just accurately stating crime stats is worthy of being blacklisted forever.
But even blacks know it. Chris Rock did a whole skit about it.
But even blacks know it. Chris Rock did a whole skit about it.
3/ Don't forget that basically every time someone criticizes the South for something, they basically just post the Cretaceous coastline map.
BREAKING: On a 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court allows the Education Dep't to halt payment of grants.
A district court issued a TRO blocking the cancelation of the grants in a suit brought by eight states. The appeals court refused a stay pending appeal.
Today, SCOTUS stayed the TRO—blocking payments.
A district court issued a TRO blocking the cancelation of the grants in a suit brought by eight states. The appeals court refused a stay pending appeal.
Today, SCOTUS stayed the TRO—blocking payments.
Thomas, Alito and the three Trump appointees formed the five-justice majority who issued the unsigned per curiam opinion.
Roberts wrote nothing but noted he would have denied the application.
Kagan and Jackson wrote dissents. Sotomayor joined Jackson's dissent, which does not hold back:
Roberts wrote nothing but noted he would have denied the application.
Kagan and Jackson wrote dissents. Sotomayor joined Jackson's dissent, which does not hold back:
Here is the opinion: supremecourt.gov/opinions/24pdf…
California church volunteer, Kevin Hurley, has been arrested for the rape of multiple children.
Kevin Hurley, 67, an Aptos church group & agricultural program volunteer, has been charged w lewd & lascivious acts with a child & dissuading a victim or witness.
kion546.com/news/2025/04/0…
kion546.com/news/2025/04/0…
Due to Hurley's previous involvement in a local youth agricultural program, & church group, detectives are looking into the potential for additional victims.
This is an ongoing investigation, anyone with information is urged to call dispatch at 831-471-1121.
This is an ongoing investigation, anyone with information is urged to call dispatch at 831-471-1121.
4 AI-proof tech jobs 👇
In this thread, I'll break down what they are and, more importantly, why they are AI-proof.
A lot of people think AI is going to take over, and guess what, it is! But there are some areas where AI is still quite bad, and will likely continue to be.
In this thread, I'll break down what they are and, more importantly, why they are AI-proof.
A lot of people think AI is going to take over, and guess what, it is! But there are some areas where AI is still quite bad, and will likely continue to be.
1. Security researcher ($80k - $250k)
AI is fantastic for helping spot beginner mistakes, but anything it hasn't been trained on (which, is many attacks) it'll perform poorly on.
These days, we have massive amounts of data on hacks, and yet, loading them into AI hasn't helped.
AI is fantastic for helping spot beginner mistakes, but anything it hasn't been trained on (which, is many attacks) it'll perform poorly on.
These days, we have massive amounts of data on hacks, and yet, loading them into AI hasn't helped.
If AI did well, you'd expect AI to sweep competitive audits on platforms like @codehawks. But yet, this is not the case, the top performers on CodeHawks are human auditors.
Most smart contract devs use AI in some way before sending their code to audit, and yet they miss bugs.
Most smart contract devs use AI in some way before sending their code to audit, and yet they miss bugs.
It's official:
The Nasdaq 100 is in a bear market following a -6% drop today, the largest drop since March 2020.
US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19th with recession odds ABOVE 60%.
What does it all mean? Let us explain.
(a thread)
The Nasdaq 100 is in a bear market following a -6% drop today, the largest drop since March 2020.
US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19th with recession odds ABOVE 60%.
What does it all mean? Let us explain.
(a thread)
As of today's close, we now have multiple major market indices in bear market territory, including:
1. Nasdaq 100
2. Russell 2000
3. Nikkei 225
4. Magnificent 7
The S&P 500 fell over 10% in 2 days for the 7th time in history.
This was last seen in 2020, 2008, and 1997.
1. Nasdaq 100
2. Russell 2000
3. Nikkei 225
4. Magnificent 7
The S&P 500 fell over 10% in 2 days for the 7th time in history.
This was last seen in 2020, 2008, and 1997.
President Trump's reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday were historic.
The effective US tariff rate is now above 25% for the first time since ~1900.
We are ABOVE levels seen in the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s.
If these tariffs persist, a recession is impossible to avoid.
The effective US tariff rate is now above 25% for the first time since ~1900.
We are ABOVE levels seen in the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s.
If these tariffs persist, a recession is impossible to avoid.
You can’t rebuild an economy with tariffs when the factory’s gone, the workers are broke, and Wall Street owns the land.
China knows this. That’s why it’s winning.
Trump’s tariffs won’t rebuild the U.S.
It’s imperial decline wrapped in red, white, and blue.
🧵
China knows this. That’s why it’s winning.
Trump’s tariffs won’t rebuild the U.S.
It’s imperial decline wrapped in red, white, and blue.
🧵
1/6 Protectionism Without Production
Tariffs signal the end of a unipolar economic model that enriched a domestic rentier elite while hollowing out productive capacity.
After decades of outsourcing and gutting public infrastructure, the U.S. is now trying to patch up a decaying economy with trade barriers.
It’s not reindustrialization—it’s damage control.
You don’t regrow a burned down forest by fencing off the ashes.
Meanwhile, China played the long game: investing in productive forces, building industrial ecosystems, and shielding its economy from Western financial capture—ensuring that sovereignty over industry remains a matter of state strategy not market whim.
While America played empire, China played industry.
Now one prints sanctions, the other prints steel.
Tariffs signal the end of a unipolar economic model that enriched a domestic rentier elite while hollowing out productive capacity.
After decades of outsourcing and gutting public infrastructure, the U.S. is now trying to patch up a decaying economy with trade barriers.
It’s not reindustrialization—it’s damage control.
You don’t regrow a burned down forest by fencing off the ashes.
Meanwhile, China played the long game: investing in productive forces, building industrial ecosystems, and shielding its economy from Western financial capture—ensuring that sovereignty over industry remains a matter of state strategy not market whim.
While America played empire, China played industry.
Now one prints sanctions, the other prints steel.
2/6 Preservation of Class Power, Not National Industry
These tariffs aren’t about rebuilding the economy. They’re about protecting the profit margins of bloated monopolies that hollowed it out in the first place.
The American elite seeks to contain economic fallout without altering the structures of class domination that caused it.
Tariffs that protect monopolies without discipline simply create new rentier fiefdoms.
By contrast, China disciplines capital.
Firms are expected to serve national development goals, not extract maximum short-term profit. Capital is subordinate to the strategic needs of the state, not the other way around.
These tariffs aren’t about rebuilding the economy. They’re about protecting the profit margins of bloated monopolies that hollowed it out in the first place.
The American elite seeks to contain economic fallout without altering the structures of class domination that caused it.
Tariffs that protect monopolies without discipline simply create new rentier fiefdoms.
By contrast, China disciplines capital.
Firms are expected to serve national development goals, not extract maximum short-term profit. Capital is subordinate to the strategic needs of the state, not the other way around.
