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🚨 MARK ZUCKERBERG IS BETTING ON PREDICTION MARKETS
Meta ($META) is reportedly building a standalone prediction markets app called "Arena."
This could become one of Meta's biggest bets beyond social media.
Open the thread to learn more... 🧵
Meta ($META) is reportedly building a standalone prediction markets app called "Arena."
This could become one of Meta's biggest bets beyond social media.
Open the thread to learn more... 🧵
1/ According to reports, Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small internal team to develop a new prediction markets platform called "Arena."
The goal?
Let users forecast real-world events and compete based on accuracy.
Source:
reuters.com/business/mark-…
The goal?
Let users forecast real-world events and compete based on accuracy.
Source:
reuters.com/business/mark-…
2/ The app is internally codenamed "Arena" and would operate separately from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.
Meta wants it to stand on its own as a new product category.
Source:
techcrunch.com/2026/06/23/mar…
Meta wants it to stand on its own as a new product category.
Source:
techcrunch.com/2026/06/23/mar…
This is *very* weird, and I need to think about it, and maybe write longform about it:
Caster Semenya, who is male, (see pinned paper) won the Olympic gold medal *twice* - notoriously in Rio in 2016 but *also* in 2012, because ...
Caster Semenya, who is male, (see pinned paper) won the Olympic gold medal *twice* - notoriously in Rio in 2016 but *also* in 2012, because ...
... of the disqualification of *female* athletes who were doping with T. Those female athletes - dopers, ofc - were subsequently disqualified and their medals redistributed. This is the latest one. ...
... There's a battle for the 800m this summer, featuring Femke Bol, Audrey Werro, and Keely Hodgkinson, aiming to take down the (doped) WR of Kratochvilova. It's difficult not to think of that competition as just corrupt AF for *decades* ...
Yo @topkekinator 🤌😂😂🤌
AaronPukes ( Smillz ) Since You Feel The Need To Create Division AGAIN Bc Your A$$ Is Drunk And Lonely, Then I Suggest To Tread Lightly..
You Know Doxxing Doesn't Go Well And While Trying To Mock My Old Account With The Avid Change Don't Forget This !
AaronPukes ( Smillz ) Since You Feel The Need To Create Division AGAIN Bc Your A$$ Is Drunk And Lonely, Then I Suggest To Tread Lightly..
You Know Doxxing Doesn't Go Well And While Trying To Mock My Old Account With The Avid Change Don't Forget This !
Adding On To Remind You Of Your Own Actions AND Words...
And To Show All How Phucking Lame You Are...
This Isn't The First Time Tryin To Be Like Me...
Phucking Idiot...
Cry Moar Aaron Pukes-Alot
Smillz Or @topkekinator 🤣🤣🤣
And To Show All How Phucking Lame You Are...
This Isn't The First Time Tryin To Be Like Me...
Phucking Idiot...
Cry Moar Aaron Pukes-Alot
Smillz Or @topkekinator 🤣🤣🤣
@topkekinator And Let's Show Your Doxxing Ways...
You Should Have Just Stayed In Your Own Lane...
So Here We Go...
These Are Your Words...
Read Your Own Words Dumb-A$$ Smillz...
What Is It You Said Bout Doxxin...
#FAFO ...🤣🤣🤣
You Should Have Just Stayed In Your Own Lane...
So Here We Go...
These Are Your Words...
Read Your Own Words Dumb-A$$ Smillz...
What Is It You Said Bout Doxxin...
#FAFO ...🤣🤣🤣
A recent supply chain attack against Arch leveraged a piece of malware with an eBPF rootkit to hide. It also had a very aggressive credentials harvester along with Tor C2. In this thread I'll cover some of the more interesting things it does.
It deploys an eBPF rootkit that hides the main process and Tor client. It also hides network activity. If you are running @SandflySecurity we de-cloak the processes plus other threats without any upgrades. The main process is random, but the Tor process is a bogus dbus-daemon.
The main process name is again random, and it also will pick a bogus name to masquerade as. I presume this is to allow it to hide just in case the eBPF rootkit cannot deploy. Here it is with a bogus "kworker" name to impersonate a kernel thread.
How to read any new dataset in 15 minutes, before you write a single line of real analysis.
THREAD 👇👇👇👇👇
THREAD 👇👇👇👇👇
1. SHAPE AND GRAIN
Row count and column preview are not data validation.
They only tell you the table exists.
The real question is:
What does one row represent?
I once worked with a “customer” table that looked clean until the grain was checked.
It was not one row per customer.
It was one row per customer per device.
That small difference changed everything:
➝ Average order value was overstated
➝ Repeat purchase rate was distorted
➝ Churn logic became unreliable
➝ Customer count looked larger than reality
➝ Segmentation was built on duplicated behaviour
The table did not look broken.
That was the danger.
Check the grain before you trust the analysis:
SELECT customer_id, COUNT(*)
FROM table
GROUP BY customer_id
ORDER BY 2 DESC;
If this returns anything above 1 when you expect one row per customer, stop.
Do not build the dashboard.
Do not train the model.
Do not calculate churn.
Rebuild your assumptions first.
Because once the grain is wrong, every metric after it becomes confidently wrong.
Row count and column preview are not data validation.
They only tell you the table exists.
The real question is:
What does one row represent?
I once worked with a “customer” table that looked clean until the grain was checked.
It was not one row per customer.
It was one row per customer per device.
That small difference changed everything:
➝ Average order value was overstated
➝ Repeat purchase rate was distorted
➝ Churn logic became unreliable
➝ Customer count looked larger than reality
➝ Segmentation was built on duplicated behaviour
The table did not look broken.
That was the danger.
Check the grain before you trust the analysis:
SELECT customer_id, COUNT(*)
FROM table
GROUP BY customer_id
ORDER BY 2 DESC;
If this returns anything above 1 when you expect one row per customer, stop.
Do not build the dashboard.
Do not train the model.
Do not calculate churn.
Rebuild your assumptions first.
Because once the grain is wrong, every metric after it becomes confidently wrong.
2. NULLS ARE A QUESTION, NOT A METRIC
A 4% null rate sounds small.
But nulls are only harmless when they are random, expected, and understood.
I once found a 4% null rate in customer_id.
At first glance, it looked minor.
Then I segmented it.
Every missing customer_id came from one acquisition channel.
The tracking pixel had been broken for six weeks.
That “small” null rate meant:
➝ One channel was missing from attribution
➝ Campaign performance was understated
➝ Customer acquisition cost was unreliable
➝ Downstream churn modelling excluded a whole traffic source
➝ Leadership was comparing channels with incomplete evidence
That is why I do not accept null percentages at face value.
I segment them.
Check nulls by:
➝ Channel
➝ Date
➝ Region
➝ Product
➝ Device
➝ Campaign
➝ Customer type
➝ Source system
A null is not just missing data.
Sometimes it is a broken process, failed tracking, bad integration, or a business rule nobody documented.
A 4% null rate sounds small.
But nulls are only harmless when they are random, expected, and understood.
I once found a 4% null rate in customer_id.
At first glance, it looked minor.
Then I segmented it.
Every missing customer_id came from one acquisition channel.
The tracking pixel had been broken for six weeks.
That “small” null rate meant:
➝ One channel was missing from attribution
➝ Campaign performance was understated
➝ Customer acquisition cost was unreliable
➝ Downstream churn modelling excluded a whole traffic source
➝ Leadership was comparing channels with incomplete evidence
That is why I do not accept null percentages at face value.
I segment them.
Check nulls by:
➝ Channel
➝ Date
➝ Region
➝ Product
➝ Device
➝ Campaign
➝ Customer type
➝ Source system
A null is not just missing data.
Sometimes it is a broken process, failed tracking, bad integration, or a business rule nobody documented.
The media is using Congresswoman Kat Cammack's (@Kat_Cammack) heartbreaking pregnancy loss to attack pro-life laws.
They're hoping Americans don't understand the difference between treating a life-threatening ectopic pregnancy and intentionally ending the life of a healthy preborn child.
Let's talk about the facts.
They're hoping Americans don't understand the difference between treating a life-threatening ectopic pregnancy and intentionally ending the life of a healthy preborn child.
Let's talk about the facts.
An ectopic pregnancy occurs when a baby implants outside the uterus, most commonly in the fallopian tube.
Sadly, these pregnancies are not viable and will become life-threatening for the mother if left untreated.
Treating an ectopic pregnancy is not the same thing as an elective abortion. The baby is NEVER intentionally killed.
Planned Parenthood themselves have noted this distinction on their own website. Sadly, we all know they LOVE spreading misinformation and have changed the wording to equate ectopic pregnancy care to be the same thing as an intentional elective abortion.
Sadly, these pregnancies are not viable and will become life-threatening for the mother if left untreated.
Treating an ectopic pregnancy is not the same thing as an elective abortion. The baby is NEVER intentionally killed.
Planned Parenthood themselves have noted this distinction on their own website. Sadly, we all know they LOVE spreading misinformation and have changed the wording to equate ectopic pregnancy care to be the same thing as an intentional elective abortion.
Abortion is the intentional killing of a preborn child in the womb.
Treatment for an ectopic pregnancy is a medical intervention to address a life-threatening condition where the child cannot survive, regardless of what doctors do.
These are fundamentally different situations.
Treatment for an ectopic pregnancy is a medical intervention to address a life-threatening condition where the child cannot survive, regardless of what doctors do.
These are fundamentally different situations.
Thread 🧵 1/4
Yoni and I discussing last night's election results.
In this clip, we discuss politicians in general and why, without a backbone, you lose.
Yoni and I discussing last night's election results.
In this clip, we discuss politicians in general and why, without a backbone, you lose.
We need a new approach, and I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about some components of that new approach.
Jewish pride and Jewish strength.
Certainly, what we’ve been doing until now isn’t working.
Certainly, what we’ve been doing until now isn’t working.
@kali_thKitty We’re already living in an electoral matriarchy. Women cast the most votes and are the majority of voters.
Nevertheless, women elect men to do the work the women don’t want — such as the work that involves real responsibility and lots of labor — and then whine it’s a patriarchy.
Nevertheless, women elect men to do the work the women don’t want — such as the work that involves real responsibility and lots of labor — and then whine it’s a patriarchy.
@kali_thKitty “In every presidential election since 1980, the proportion of eligible female adults who voted has exceeded the proportion of eligible male adults who voted” (cawp.rutgers.edu/voters-voter-t… | infogram.com/proportion-tur… | infogram.com/number-turnout…).
@kali_thKitty “The gender gap in turnout rates and numbers tend to narrow in non-presidential election years, but women still consistently outnumber and outvote men” (cawp.rutgers.edu/voters-voter-t… | infogram.com/proportion-tur… | infogram.com/number-turnout…).
🚨 In a 2-1 vote, the Sixth Circuit ruled that the DOJ cannot force Michigan to turn over its unredacted statewide voter-registration database under the Civil Rights Act of 1960.
Judge Mathis, joined by Judge Cole, said the Civil Rights Act of 1960 only covers voting records that election officials "acquire" from others, such as voter-registration applications. Michigan's statewide voter database is created and maintained by the state itself.
Judge Nalbandian dissented, arguing the majority adopted an artificially narrow reading. He contends that Michigan's voter file is itself a voter-registration record, and that Congress intended broad federal access to election records.
I just saw a post from an MD about the increase in athletes dying of heart attacks, then I lost it. Search is broken, so I can’t find the post or the threads I made when heart attacks increased 30% in Americans ages 18-44 from 2020-2021.
2026: 66% increase. Godspeed, all.
2026: 66% increase. Godspeed, all.
Found it. Between 2020-2021, before anyone on the planet got vaccines, heart attacks had already increased almost 30% in Americans ages 25-44.
A 30% increase in one year. Today it’s 66%.
A 30% increase in one year. Today it’s 66%.
Hello? Is anyone paying attention?
1/ Ukraine is using quadcopter drones carried by uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) to hunt down and destroy Russian anti-drone teams in occupied Crimea, according to a Russian source. ⬇️
2/ Ukrainian drone carrier USVs have been observed in use in the Black Sea in recent months. The Russian warblogger 'Veterans' Notes' describes how they are being used to support Ukraine's middle-strike campaign, by suppressing air defences in the occupied regions:
3/ "Regarding mobile task forces (MOGs) on the peninsula, the enemy has begun actively hunting them. There have already been numerous cases of MOG crews coming under fire from Ukrainian drones and suffering losses. These attacks were carried out on the coast using FPV drones.
