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Two weeks ago we wrote about private credit gates coming down.
Last week we wrote about Cliffwater. The turducken structure. Half the exits blocked.
Yesterday the US Treasury announced it is calling emergency meetings with insurance regulators over private credit risks.
This is how a slow moving story becomes a fast moving one.
Last week we wrote about Cliffwater. The turducken structure. Half the exits blocked.
Yesterday the US Treasury announced it is calling emergency meetings with insurance regulators over private credit risks.
This is how a slow moving story becomes a fast moving one.
The FT ran a piece yesterday on Howard Marks.
During the boom years Oaktree looked like it was being left behind. Ares at $60 billion market cap. Blue Owl at $40 billion. Oaktree quietly valued at $7.7 billion.
Marks called it the craftsman approach versus the assembly line.
During the boom years Oaktree looked like it was being left behind. Ares at $60 billion market cap. Blue Owl at $40 billion. Oaktree quietly valued at $7.7 billion.
Marks called it the craftsman approach versus the assembly line.
He said this to the FT late last year.
“When the tide goes out you will find out who made prudent credit decisions and who didn’t.”
He said the same thing at his own conference two weeks ago.
Same words. Two separate conversations. That is not a talking point. That is a conviction.
“When the tide goes out you will find out who made prudent credit decisions and who didn’t.”
He said the same thing at his own conference two weeks ago.
Same words. Two separate conversations. That is not a talking point. That is a conviction.
Nifty is going to open ugly today.
Gift Nifty futures are down 451 points as I write this. That is a 2% drop before the bell even rings.
Here is what happened overnight and what it means for your portfolio.
Thread.
Gift Nifty futures are down 451 points as I write this. That is a 2% drop before the bell even rings.
Here is what happened overnight and what it means for your portfolio.
Thread.
Trump spoke to the nation last night.
He said US core objectives in Iran are “nearing completion.” He refused a ceasefire unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Iran called it false and baseless. The Revolutionary Guards said the strait stays closed.
Markets had priced in hope. Hope just left the building.
He said US core objectives in Iran are “nearing completion.” He refused a ceasefire unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Iran called it false and baseless. The Revolutionary Guards said the strait stays closed.
Markets had priced in hope. Hope just left the building.
Read what the numbers are saying this morning.
Brent crude at $109. Up nearly 5% overnight. Gold sold off $96 in a single session. Silver down 3%. Nikkei down 1.5%.
When oil spikes and gold falls together, that is not a haven trade. That is forced selling meeting a supply shock.
Brent crude at $109. Up nearly 5% overnight. Gold sold off $96 in a single session. Silver down 3%. Nikkei down 1.5%.
When oil spikes and gold falls together, that is not a haven trade. That is forced selling meeting a supply shock.
Tonight’s speech by Donald Trump was framed as “mission nearly complete.”
But listen carefully — the substance points the other way:
This is not de-escalation. It’s controlled escalation.
But listen carefully — the substance points the other way:
This is not de-escalation. It’s controlled escalation.
1) He claims victory — while extending the war
Says “core objectives” are nearly done
Says the war could continue 2–3 more weeks
Translation:
Victory rhetoric + no clear end date = war continuation
Says “core objectives” are nearly done
Says the war could continue 2–3 more weeks
Translation:
Victory rhetoric + no clear end date = war continuation
2) He keeps escalation options open
Prior threats include strikes on critical infrastructure like power plants
Continued bombardment until strategic compliance (Hormuz, etc.)
That’s not winding down.
That’s raising the ceiling of destruction if Iran resists
Prior threats include strikes on critical infrastructure like power plants
Continued bombardment until strategic compliance (Hormuz, etc.)
That’s not winding down.
That’s raising the ceiling of destruction if Iran resists
Something feels off.
More people are starting to notice—but almost no one is saying it out loud.
Online, everything looks normal. Under control.
But step outside and talk to real people, and a very different picture starts to emerge—rising costs, tightening pressure, and a growing sense that reality isn’t matching what we’re being told.
Seth Holehouse sits down with @zeeemedia to deliver a warning he believes every honest media outlet should be talking about.
What’s happening right now follows a pattern most people miss—but once you see it, you can’t unsee it.
The Great Reset isn’t coming…
It’s already here. 🧵
More people are starting to notice—but almost no one is saying it out loud.
Online, everything looks normal. Under control.
But step outside and talk to real people, and a very different picture starts to emerge—rising costs, tightening pressure, and a growing sense that reality isn’t matching what we’re being told.
Seth Holehouse sits down with @zeeemedia to deliver a warning he believes every honest media outlet should be talking about.
What’s happening right now follows a pattern most people miss—but once you see it, you can’t unsee it.
The Great Reset isn’t coming…
It’s already here. 🧵
Seth Holehouse frames this moment as a turning point for the people who were pulled back into politics because they believed meaningful change was finally coming.
Seth explains that even he put real support behind Trump, like millions of others, because he believed the system was going to be challenged.
“I threw an immense amount of support behind Donald Trump getting into office… I thought… he’s gonna come in… and really help to fix this system.”
But, like many Americans, what he’s seeing right now doesn’t match that expectation. And that’s where things start to feel off.
Seth puts it to a simple test that anyone can understand.
“If Donald Trump was, say, Gavin Newsom… and he was doing these exact same things, how would I feel about it?”
For him, that question cuts through everything. It forces consistency. And right now, he says, it’s raising serious red flags.
Seth warns that propaganda today doesn’t actually look like the propaganda you’d expect—the kind we’ve grown used to. It doesn’t come from obvious enemies. It comes from the voices that people trust, reinforcing a version of reality that doesn’t quite match what people are actually living. It can feel confusing.
And that’s where the shift happens.
Seth believes more and more people are getting pulled into a narrative where questioning anything the government is doing suddenly makes you the problem.
“I should have a right to voice my opinion about that… but then you look in the comments and see people like, ‘Seth, you’re such a black pill… you’re anti-Trump now… did they get to you?’”
His response is direct: “No… they didn’t get to me. I’m just being rational and logical.”
Seth makes it clear that his support was never about blind loyalty. It was about principles. Staying “permanent pro-America” means applying the same standard—no matter who is in power.
The takeaway here is simple: Don’t switch off your thinking just because the narrative feels familiar.
Seth explains that even he put real support behind Trump, like millions of others, because he believed the system was going to be challenged.
“I threw an immense amount of support behind Donald Trump getting into office… I thought… he’s gonna come in… and really help to fix this system.”
But, like many Americans, what he’s seeing right now doesn’t match that expectation. And that’s where things start to feel off.
Seth puts it to a simple test that anyone can understand.
“If Donald Trump was, say, Gavin Newsom… and he was doing these exact same things, how would I feel about it?”
For him, that question cuts through everything. It forces consistency. And right now, he says, it’s raising serious red flags.
Seth warns that propaganda today doesn’t actually look like the propaganda you’d expect—the kind we’ve grown used to. It doesn’t come from obvious enemies. It comes from the voices that people trust, reinforcing a version of reality that doesn’t quite match what people are actually living. It can feel confusing.
And that’s where the shift happens.
Seth believes more and more people are getting pulled into a narrative where questioning anything the government is doing suddenly makes you the problem.
“I should have a right to voice my opinion about that… but then you look in the comments and see people like, ‘Seth, you’re such a black pill… you’re anti-Trump now… did they get to you?’”
His response is direct: “No… they didn’t get to me. I’m just being rational and logical.”
Seth makes it clear that his support was never about blind loyalty. It was about principles. Staying “permanent pro-America” means applying the same standard—no matter who is in power.
The takeaway here is simple: Don’t switch off your thinking just because the narrative feels familiar.
#ad: Most investors are falling behind—and don’t even realize it.
There’s a powerful new AI system quietly outperforming the market.
DailyPulseCrypto.com 👈
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DISCLOSURE: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase through them, we may earn a small commission at no extra cost to you. This helps keep our work independent. Thank you for your support.
There’s a powerful new AI system quietly outperforming the market.
DailyPulseCrypto.com 👈
Animus AI, available through BlockTrust IRA, analyzes crypto markets and executes trades with precision most people can’t match. Since 2022, it has outperformed Bitcoin by 250%, and in 2025 alone helped create over 80,000 new millionaires.
Right now, you can receive $2,500 in bonus crypto when you open a qualifying account.
Visit DailyPulseCrypto.com to get started.
DISCLOSURE: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase through them, we may earn a small commission at no extra cost to you. This helps keep our work independent. Thank you for your support.
1) Zen Master urged me not to engage on this, but I feel I must.
2) Realize that almost six months ago, both he and I, plus I later saw, Shipwreckedcrew, said that the birthright citizenship case would be a loss.
3) I've explained why I think the justices will so rule.
2) Realize that almost six months ago, both he and I, plus I later saw, Shipwreckedcrew, said that the birthright citizenship case would be a loss.
3) I've explained why I think the justices will so rule.
4) I know some of you "kain't hep it," you're as committed to doomspooge as the DemoKKKrats are to TDS, but one last time I'm going to remind you that, excluding what I consider to be "minor cases" (of course, they aren't minor if it's your property or rights that are involved)
4) contd . . . here are the major cases the Supes have decided the "right way" or in our favor in the last few years since Trump appointed the majority:
*Bruen (guns)
*Dobbs (abortion)
*W VA vs EPA (huge in cutting back the swamp/Deep State)
*Jarkesey v. SEC (equally huge)
*Bruen (guns)
*Dobbs (abortion)
*W VA vs EPA (huge in cutting back the swamp/Deep State)
*Jarkesey v. SEC (equally huge)
1/16 The 60/40 portfolio & target-date constructs are relics of a bygone era.
Rigid, fragile models linearly optimized for a system that no longer exists. #SharpeWorld
We are entering a period of non-linear change, & the old playbooks are breaking
Enter: The Pillars of Power. 🧵
Rigid, fragile models linearly optimized for a system that no longer exists. #SharpeWorld
We are entering a period of non-linear change, & the old playbooks are breaking
Enter: The Pillars of Power. 🧵
2/16 If you study geostrategic history from first principles, a pattern emerges
The hegemon who controls the World Order always has leadership in 3 interconnected spheres:
1️⃣ Asymmetric Technology
2️⃣ Low-cost, abundant Energy
3️⃣ Fully-controlled Money
The hegemon who controls the World Order always has leadership in 3 interconnected spheres:
1️⃣ Asymmetric Technology
2️⃣ Low-cost, abundant Energy
3️⃣ Fully-controlled Money
3/16 This framework is rooted in Nature.
Just like water flows through a river, money flows through the complex adaptive system of the stock market.
To understand markets, you must understand the stock and flow of energy
Just like water flows through a river, money flows through the complex adaptive system of the stock market.
To understand markets, you must understand the stock and flow of energy
President Trump is right to strongly consider leaving NATO.
I support the President’s constitutional authority under Article II to withdraw from any treaty — including NATO — without needing Senate approval. Congress tried to block that with the 2023 Kaine-Rubio provision in the NDAA, but the Constitution grants the executive power to the president.
thehill.com/homenews/admin…
I support the President’s constitutional authority under Article II to withdraw from any treaty — including NATO — without needing Senate approval. Congress tried to block that with the 2023 Kaine-Rubio provision in the NDAA, but the Constitution grants the executive power to the president.
thehill.com/homenews/admin…
Treaty making is an executive power. The Constitution’s requirement that treaties may only be made with the consent of two-thirds of the Senate is a limitation on this inherent executive authority, the purpose of which is make it difficult to get enter into alliances.
nationalreview.com/news/senate-pa…
nationalreview.com/news/senate-pa…
The Constitution’s silence on treaty withdrawal means that the president retains the executive authority to remove the United States from treaty obligations. The Founders were wise to make it be difficult to enter into treaty obligations and easy to withdraw from them once they were no longer in the national interest.
Here's a special release for EVA fans!
Enjoy the first episode, complete with our revised translation (with many options) and a curated collection of audio mixes. More to come soon.
And yes, Fly Me To The Moon is back!
Cmh0dHBzOi8vbnlhYS5zaS92aWV3LzIwOTI2OTU=
Enjoy the first episode, complete with our revised translation (with many options) and a curated collection of audio mixes. More to come soon.
And yes, Fly Me To The Moon is back!
Cmh0dHBzOi8vbnlhYS5zaS92aWV3LzIwOTI2OTU=
The best of the best for video with more audio options than you would believe.
Subtitle translations and timing have been reviewed extensively with choices to match either Japanese audio track.
Apollo smiles. Artemis rides her namesake home.
Hymn to the Twin Lights
The full poem in replies. #ArtemisII
Hymn to the Twin Lights
The full poem in replies. #ArtemisII
O radiant twins of Leto, born beneath the Delian palm,
Apollo of the golden lyre, whose arrows pierce the dawn,
And Artemis, swift huntress, silver-bowed, queen of the night,
Whose crescent crowns the wilds and draws the tides in measured rite.
Apollo of the golden lyre, whose arrows pierce the dawn,
And Artemis, swift huntress, silver-bowed, queen of the night,
Whose crescent crowns the wilds and draws the tides in measured rite.
Once thou, bright sister, roamed the shadowed glades and mountain heights,
While brother kindled heaven’s flame against the gathering nights.
Yet ever linked in blood and fate, thy realms in balance turned
His sunlit chariot, thy silent orb where mortal eyes have yearned.
While brother kindled heaven’s flame against the gathering nights.
Yet ever linked in blood and fate, thy realms in balance turned
His sunlit chariot, thy silent orb where mortal eyes have yearned.
New ICE arrest data just dropped via the Deportation Data Project's FOIA lawsuit. I spent hours validating it so you don't have to. Here's what the numbers actually show. 🧵
First, the data now goes back to October 2022 further than the previous release. It covers through March 9, 2026, giving us the most complete picture of ICE enforcement we've had yet.
Despite public safety justifications for mass deportation, monthly ICE arrests have not increased substantially since Spring 2025. In fact, arrests have objectively declined since October 2025.
DEALERS MARK UP EVERY CAR BY $2,000 TO $7,000
THEY BANK ON YOU NOT KNOWING THE REAL NUMBERS
I SAVED $4,300 ON MY LAST CAR USING NOTHING BUT CHATGPT
COPY THESE 7 PROMPTS BEFORE YOU STEP ON ANY LOT:
THEY BANK ON YOU NOT KNOWING THE REAL NUMBERS
I SAVED $4,300 ON MY LAST CAR USING NOTHING BUT CHATGPT
COPY THESE 7 PROMPTS BEFORE YOU STEP ON ANY LOT:
1/ True Market Value Research
Paste to ChatGPT: "Act as an automotive pricing analyst. I'm looking to buy a [year, make, model, trim] in [your city/state]. Research the true market value, invoice price, and average transaction price. Tell me exactly what this car should cost and what the dealer likely paid for it."
Paste to ChatGPT: "Act as an automotive pricing analyst. I'm looking to buy a [year, make, model, trim] in [your city/state]. Research the true market value, invoice price, and average transaction price. Tell me exactly what this car should cost and what the dealer likely paid for it."
2/ Hidden Fee Detector
Paste to ChatGPT: "List every hidden fee and markup a car dealership might add to a final purchase price. For each one, tell me if it's negotiable, unnecessary, or legally required. Give me the exact words to say to get each one removed."
Paste to ChatGPT: "List every hidden fee and markup a car dealership might add to a final purchase price. For each one, tell me if it's negotiable, unnecessary, or legally required. Give me the exact words to say to get each one removed."
THE WOMAN CONSIDERED ONE OF THE HOTTEST WOMEN IN TONGA JUST BECAUSE SHE WASN’T FAT 🇹🇴
Visited a few countries in Polynesia, very unique region of the world with interesting cultures and friendly people. Is true though that a lot of Polynesians are fat. The muscular Polynesian - fat Polynesian is anecdotally a real thing. You will see a lot of fat people walking around the towns you visit and then occasionally, out of the blue, some of the most muscular men you have seen in your life
Has been suggested there is a partially genetic partially cultural reason for this - Polynesians genetically adapted for muscle and fat retention on long sea voyages, culturally they just eat a lot of sludge. Whatever the specific reason(s) the fatness is difficult not to observe
In Polynesia, even bigger islands do not have many people living on them. Nuku’alofa, the capital of Tonga, is more of a town than a city - maybe you could even call it a village. It’s located on Tongatapu, the largest and most developed island in Tonga even though it only has a population of about 75K and feels like a series of villages dotted around a palm grove. Because there aren’t too many people there the entire country feels very local, it is an ‘everybody knows everybody’ type place
Went to one of only bars in Nuku’alofa one evening. Sub-Tiki bar vibe just because it’s that region of the world but mostly it just sold cheap liquor. Still, was relatively swanky by Tongan standards. Jolly fat Tongan man comes up to me because I’m foreign (‘palangi’) and Tongans are just the kind of people who like to talk to everyone… we end up having a good conversation. He then points at a woman and says:
“Hey look over there, she’s famous in Nuku’alofa, she’s considered one of the most beautiful women in all of Tonga”
There was decently attractive Polynesian woman sat holding court at a table, surrounded by a few men, twirling her hair as they fawned over her
Asked on what grounds she was considered one of most beautiful women in Tonga, she looked nice but wouldn’t have called her the most attractive woman ever. Her look was a little ghetto so-called
“It’s because she’s not fat”
He was being completely sincere. Unlike many Tongan women, she was within a healthy body fat range. Meeting this standard was enough to qualify her for top percentile hotness by Tongan standards. She apparently had had the benefit of studying in Auckland, New Zealand too - several years of living there inculcated in her the middle class western norms of ‘not letting yourself getting fucking fat’. She exercised and ate reasonable portions etc - hence she was regarded as a real dime piece, all the Tongan men lusted after her
Was introduced to her later in the evening, she was friendly and didn’t seem conceited. Easy to talk to. Could tell some of the other Tongan men in the bar were annoyed though
Visited a few countries in Polynesia, very unique region of the world with interesting cultures and friendly people. Is true though that a lot of Polynesians are fat. The muscular Polynesian - fat Polynesian is anecdotally a real thing. You will see a lot of fat people walking around the towns you visit and then occasionally, out of the blue, some of the most muscular men you have seen in your life
Has been suggested there is a partially genetic partially cultural reason for this - Polynesians genetically adapted for muscle and fat retention on long sea voyages, culturally they just eat a lot of sludge. Whatever the specific reason(s) the fatness is difficult not to observe
In Polynesia, even bigger islands do not have many people living on them. Nuku’alofa, the capital of Tonga, is more of a town than a city - maybe you could even call it a village. It’s located on Tongatapu, the largest and most developed island in Tonga even though it only has a population of about 75K and feels like a series of villages dotted around a palm grove. Because there aren’t too many people there the entire country feels very local, it is an ‘everybody knows everybody’ type place
Went to one of only bars in Nuku’alofa one evening. Sub-Tiki bar vibe just because it’s that region of the world but mostly it just sold cheap liquor. Still, was relatively swanky by Tongan standards. Jolly fat Tongan man comes up to me because I’m foreign (‘palangi’) and Tongans are just the kind of people who like to talk to everyone… we end up having a good conversation. He then points at a woman and says:
“Hey look over there, she’s famous in Nuku’alofa, she’s considered one of the most beautiful women in all of Tonga”
There was decently attractive Polynesian woman sat holding court at a table, surrounded by a few men, twirling her hair as they fawned over her
Asked on what grounds she was considered one of most beautiful women in Tonga, she looked nice but wouldn’t have called her the most attractive woman ever. Her look was a little ghetto so-called
“It’s because she’s not fat”
He was being completely sincere. Unlike many Tongan women, she was within a healthy body fat range. Meeting this standard was enough to qualify her for top percentile hotness by Tongan standards. She apparently had had the benefit of studying in Auckland, New Zealand too - several years of living there inculcated in her the middle class western norms of ‘not letting yourself getting fucking fat’. She exercised and ate reasonable portions etc - hence she was regarded as a real dime piece, all the Tongan men lusted after her
Was introduced to her later in the evening, she was friendly and didn’t seem conceited. Easy to talk to. Could tell some of the other Tongan men in the bar were annoyed though
About Polynesian genetics
Also:
