Recent well liked threads

Dec 24, 2021
Merry Christmas, here's some genuine free alpha that you can use

Funding Rate vs Realized Drift

automation not required

most of y'all think of the funding rate like RSI; negative = oversold, positive = overbought

but you're wrong, it's way more specific
the funding rate on most exchanges is determined by taking the average difference between the perp price and spot asset price over [n] as a %, multiplied by n/24, where n is the number of hours per funding period. Sometimes + a default rate.
What this means is that over 24 hours, longs or shorts have to pay their counterparties the cost of the average premium or discount of the contract. This ensures that the contract stays roughly aligned w spot price.

but what this ALSO means...
Read 13 tweets
Aug 15, 2025
New climate scare: coffee price at "50-year high"!

No, at peak early-2025, coffee was cheaper than peaks in 2011, 1997, 1994, 1986, and 1977. It was cheaper than average of 1960-1985

Last 25 years, coffee on average cost just 42% of its price first 25 years

1977 spike due to summer frost in Brazil

We constantly see such claims, e.g. grist.org/food-and-agric…, euronews.com/green/2025/02/…, nytimes.com/2025/02/22/bus…, nytimes.com/2024/12/28/bus…Image
Climate causes coffee prices to be at a "50-year high", claims The New York Times

—if you ignore inflation

Peak early-2025 coffee was actually cheaper than peaks in 2011, 1997, 1994, 1986, and 1977

Peak early-2025 coffee was cheaper than average of 1960-1985

nytimes.com/2025/02/22/bus…, nytimes.com/2024/12/28/bus…Image
New climate scare: Climate diminishes coffee production

No

Global production keeps increasing and will likely hit an all-time high this year

NYTimes: “climate change, which has diminished the supply of coffee around the globe via rising temperatures, droughts and excessive rains”

Stats: apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/…, June 2025 global production USDA report: fas.usda.gov/data/coffee-wo…Image
Read 3 tweets
Jun 19
Don't cry for me Argentiiiiiiina.... @CatalinaMonzoon, die neue (politische) Gespielin von @JoachimPaul_AfD.

Das bringt ihr natürlich den Vorteil, dass der kleine, dicke Pole, der Wasserträger von Paul, für Sie Ihre peinlichen Filmchen schneidet. Image
Und sie dafür mit dem Dildorad-Merch des Straftäters umher läuft. Wie praktisch. 😏

Und sie kämpft so stark für Deutschland und Remigration, dass ihr neues Logo jetzt den Puma beinhaltet. Weil ihr Vater mal rührselig einen aufgezogen hat. Sie sollte den Puma mal besuchen. 😏 Image
Read 2 tweets
Jun 25
we are barely 6 months into 2026

here's some of the most unhinged biotech and longevity stuff this year alone:

- germline editing hit 100% efficiency with zero chromosomal abnormalities using base editing instead of CRISPR cutting

- a baby was born from an embryo selected for an IQ in the 99.99th percentile. the company behind it openly calls it eugenics

- Midjourney, an AI image company, pivoted into medical hardware with a full body ultrasound scanner that takes 60 seconds

- China reversed type 2 diabetes in a patient using stem-cell-derived insulin cells. insulin stopped completely. the body took over

- an Australian founder sequenced his dog's cancer, used AI to design a custom mRNA vaccine, and watched the tumor shrink

- daraxonrasib nearly doubled survival in pancreatic cancer. one of the deadliest cancers on earth. a 42 second standing ovation followed

- retatrutide hit 30% bodyweight loss in Phase 3. bariatric surgery territory from a peptide

- Eli Lilly bought Verve Therapeutics for $1B after one gene edit delivered permanent cholesterol reduction in human patients

- Life Biosciences dosed the first human with a therapy built to reverse cellular aging. the anti-aging era entered the clinic

- Demis Hassabis raised $2.1B for Isomorphic Labs on top of billions in pharma partnerships to build AI-designed drugs

- Brian Armstrong's NewLimit raised $435M at a $3.1B valuation to pursue cellular rejuvenation

- China launched a 2,000 person trial testing stem cells for age-related decline. the largest organized longevity study ever attempted

forget software

biology is now programmable

have you joined the cult?
the people building the infrastructure behind all of this are the ones we actually want to talk to

Superhuman Fund II backs the layer underneath the headlines: peptide validation, biological age diagnostics, trial site intelligence, BCIs, epigenetic reprogramming, and the picks and shovels nobody else is funding

if that's you, let's talk
Read 2 tweets
Jun 26
The Democratic establishment deserves a slow clap here.

Really. Bravo.

They spent years building the perfect little political terrarium: NGOs, activist salaries, university grievance factories, donor cash, media protection, blue-city patronage, “equity” rackets, and taxpayer-funded do-gooder laundromats all humming along under the sacred banner of “Our Democracy.”

Then they looked at the radicals crawling around inside and said, “Surely these people will remain manageable.”

Absolutely brilliant, guys.

Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries now look like substitute teachers trying to take attendance during a prison riot. The donors are sweating through their custom suits. The consultants are pretending this is just a “messaging challenge.” The media is polishing the same old turd and calling it “youth energy.”

No, champ. This is not youth energy.

This is the bill.

You told them America was evil.
You told them capitalism was theft.
You told them police were the enemy.
You told them borders were immoral.
You told them every institution had to be “decolonized,” “reimagined,” or burned down and rebuilt by people with sociology degrees and untreated rage.

Now they believe you.

And worse, they want promotions.

That is the humiliation. The party bosses thought they were renting radicals by the hour. Turns out the radicals thought they were being trained to run the place.

Democrats built the hive, fed the hive, defended the hive, and called anyone who noticed a conspiracy theorist.

Now the hive has the keys.

Enjoy the buzzing.
(article below)
Democrats Built a Patronage Hive and Act Shocked That the Radicals Want the Keys floppingaces.net/most-wanted/de…Image
Read 2 tweets
Jun 27
1/ ⚠️ BREAKING‼️‼️🧵

The serious mistake in this viral microbiome post that nobody is telling you.

Yes, Faecalibacterium prausnitzii is important.

Yes, butyrate matters.

Yes, a healthy gut barrier needs butyrate-producing bacteria.

Long thread. 🧵
2/ F. prausnitzii is often reduced in COVID, Long COVID and many chronic inflammatory diseases.

That is interesting.

But finding a missing bacterium does not prove that the missing bacterium caused the disease.

This is where many microbiome narratives go wrong.
3/ This is one of the most common mistakes in microbiome research.

People compare patients with healthy controls, find microbiome differences, and immediately build a causal story:

“This bacterium is missing, therefore this bacterium caused the disease.”

That is not causality.
Read 23 tweets
Jun 28
I’ve long been one of the few economists who defended the appropriateness of well-designed rent regulation laws in NYC and other “superstar” cities with tight housing markets and that are subject to rapid changes in market rents in gentrifying neighborhoods.
My active involvement in the issue was primarily during my years as Executive Director of the Citizens Housing & Planning Council of New York (1994-2006). My logic for supporting a “second generation” form of regulation is as follows.
When an apartment is vacant and a potential tenant views it, there is relatively equal bargaining power between the prospective tenant and the landlord. If the tenant thinks the asking rent is too high, they can easily look elsewhere and there is little mobility cost in doing so.
Read 25 tweets
Jun 28
mastic gum has KILLED every pathogen scientists tested it on. for 3,000 years.

in published studies:

→ KILLED H. pylori (NEJM)
(causes 80% of ulcers and 800,000 stomach cancers/year)

→ KILLED S. mutans (p<0.001)
(#1 cause of cavities — every filling started here)

→ KILLED Staph aureus (MRSA)
(hospital infections, skin abscesses, sepsis)

→ INHIBITED Candida
(brain fog, sugar cravings, chronic fatigue)

→ KILLED P. gingivalis (Alzheimer’s)
(found in 9/10 Alzheimer’s brains eating neurons)

→ MATCHED a prescription drug for gastric emptying
(food sitting in your stomach for hours — bloating, nausea, reflux)

→ 7/10 Crohn’s patients reached REMISSION in 4 weeks
(reduced the SAME inflammatory marker Humira targets — for $30 instead of $7,000/month)

→ KILLED 6 cancer lines in VITRO
(Prostate, Oral, Colon, Pancreatic, Lung, Leukemia)

MOUTH. GUT. SKIN. FUNGUS. BRAIN. CANCER. CROHN’S.

ONE TREE RESIN.

antibiotics use one mechanism. bacteria adapt.

mastic uses ~70 compounds at once. zero resistant strains.

it’s a tree resin from Chios, Greece. chewed for 3,000 years.

Hippocrates prescribed it. bacteria still can’t beat it. your doctor has never heard of it.

🧵 here’s how I use it daily and what to avoid when buying ↓Image
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repost this and follow me. someone you know has ulcers, cavities, bloating, or bleeding gums. they need to see what one tree resin did in published studies.
studies behind every claim: ⭐️

PMID: 9874617 (H. pylori — NEJM)

PMID: 19879118 (38% eradication in 14 days)

PMID: 16343417 (S. mutans p<0.001)

PMID: 19414406 (P. gingivalis + P. melaninogenica — selective kill)

PMID: 8808717 (Candida inhibition)

PMID: 38454582 (matched prescription drug — 2024 RCT)

PMID: 17278198 (Crohn’s — 7/10 remission in 4 weeks)

seven claims. seven sources. read them on pubmed.Image
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Read 14 tweets
Jun 28
A guy used a Kindle for 4 years before he realized he was using it wrong.

He read 60+ books on it. Highlighted hundreds of passages. Never adjusted a single setting beyond font size.

His sister-in-law a librarian who's read 800+ books on her Kindle sat next to him on a flight and watched him read for 20 minutes.

She finally said: "Can I show you something? You're missing the 9 features that make this thing actually useful. Amazon hides them 4 menus deep. Every Kindle owner I know reads way slower because of it."

She changed 9 settings in 6 minutes.

He finished his next book in half the usual time. Remembered twice as much. Looked up zero words on his phone.

Here's everything she showed him
🧵
1. Word Wise definitions appear above hard words automatically.

You don't have to tap. You don't have to look anything up.

Small, light-grey definitions appear above any word the Kindle thinks might be unfamiliar. You can adjust how many hints you want with a slider.

To turn on: open a book → tap the top of the screen → tap "Aa" → "More" → toggle Word Wise.

You'll read complex books 30-40% faster. No more breaking focus to check a dictionary
2. X-Ray the built-in research assistant.

Reading a novel and forgot who a character is? Reading nonfiction and lost track of a concept introduced 80 pages ago?

X-Ray shows you every mention of every character, place, term, and concept in the book with page references.

Tap the top of the screen → three-dot menu → X-Ray.

The librarian called this "the feature that makes Pride and Prejudice readable on the second try."
Read 12 tweets
Jun 28
@CelticaMoriarty @linternedegarde Il y a la réserve sanitaire. Et on a pas besoin de bras à proprement parler mais de professionnels. Quand le Covid 1ere vague a fait exploser les appels au 15 j’ai monté la cellule régionale avec des étudiants en santé volontaire que j’ai formé mais ils avaient tous un background
@CelticaMoriarty @linternedegarde de formation initiale qui leur permettait en plus de la formation spécifique et des algorithmes que nous avions fait ainsi que de leur encadrement constant de répondre aux appels simples et ainsi trier ceux qui nécessitaient davantage que de simples conseils. Alors oui sans doute
@CelticaMoriarty @linternedegarde que pour aller chercher des glaçons et immerger les patients dedans ou délester les équipes de taches qui en soi ne requièrent pas autre chose que de soulever un patient / amener des poches de perf / etc c’est pas inutile et y’a pas besoin d’un bac + 10 en médecine, mais c’est
Read 7 tweets
Jun 28
Finally, I am able to say something about tariffs I wasn't able to say last year. I'll tell you why at the end of the thread.
In my view, the case for tariffs is overdetermined. There's national security reasons (you need self-sufficiency in war equipment), financial stability reasons (you don't want the net foreign asset position exploding), and an underdiscussed reason - tax policy.
There are two centuries of research on optimal tariffs. Tariffs are interesting because--unlike labor or capital taxes--foreigners bear, in the long run, a material portion of the burden of the tax. richmondfed.org/~/media/richmo…
Read 20 tweets
Jun 28
رشتو: شارل دوگل

«وقتی فرانسه ایستاد؛ روایت مستند بزرگ‌ترین بحران شارل دوگل و شباهت‌ها و تفاوت‌های آن با اعتراضات #ایران»

@SamanthaIrani
#پرچم_شیر_و_خورشید
#فرزندان_پرچم Image
۱/

فرانسه، مه ۱۹۶۸؛ کشوری که در ظاهر آرام بود، اما در عمل وارد یکی از بزرگ‌ترین بحران‌های اجتماعی قرن بیستم شد.
اعتراضاتی که با دانشجویان شروع شد، به بزرگ‌ترین اعتصاب تاریخ اروپا تبدیل شد.
#پرچم_شیر_و_خورشید Image
۲/

این ماجرا فقط یک اعتراض نبود.
یک آزمون بزرگ برای نظام سیاسی‌ای بود که شارل دوگل در ۱۹۵۸ بنا کرده بود؛ جمهوری پنجم فرانسه.

تصویر: شارل دوگل
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Charles_d…Image
Read 25 tweets
Jun 28
Conor Neill, profesor de MBA, lo dice sin rodeos: la vida premia la acción, no la inteligencia.

Y cuanto más listo eres, mejores excusas te inventas para no actuar.

8 ideas para dejar de pensar y empezar a moverte:

1/ Haz una sola cosa. Y luego otra. Y otra...
George Leonard, autor de Mastery, lo resumía así: no puedes hacerlo todo, pero sí puedes hacer una cosa… y otra… y otra.

Así se construye el progreso bestia.

No necesitas el plan perfecto, necesitas el primer paso y repetirlo.
2/ Desconfía de tu propia inteligencia.

Cuanto más listo eres, mejores excusas te montas: "esto es muy pequeño", "no merece la pena", "no va a cambiar nada".

Tu cabeza es una máquina de justificar el no hacer.

La inteligencia mal usada es el mejor freno que existe.
Read 10 tweets
Jun 28
Excellent essay. No doubt one of the defining features of the China shock has been how it has reallocated the global surplus.

The old exportweltmeister has been dethroned -- and China has world scale in advanced manufacturing, which is new and disruptive

1/
The jump in China's surplus since the start of 2024 is actually understated in dollar terms -- as Chinese export prices have fallen/ volume metrics show a bigger rise. But there has been a huge shift since 2018

2/ Image
I do think I was among the first to talk of a second China shock -- I was among the first to notice the acceleration in China's auto exports, and I also observed that the rise in China's surplus in manufacturing after 19 was as big as the rise after WTO accession

3/ Image
Read 20 tweets
Jun 28
Today's Dave's Car ID Service pays homage to the wild body graphics of the Muscle Car Era, starting with the GOAT - the Pontiac Firebird Trans Am Screaming Chicken.

Coincidentally enough, today is also the 60th birthday of the Firebird. In a way. On June 28, 1966, Chevy's Pete Estes held a press conference announcing a new car line to battle the Ford Mustang, code name XP-836, and its name would be "Camaro." Pontiac was the only other GM division that would get the platform, with slightly different styling and powered by a Pontiac engine, under the the Firebird name.

From 1967-68 the Firebird sort of languished in the shadow of its Camaro cousin, but it did have some success in Trans Am road racing by privateers. "Trans Am" is short for Trans America, a series for sub 5 liter (302 cubic inch) stock cars.

Anyhoo to mark that success Pontiac rolled out the Trans Am option package for Firebird in 1969. At first it was fairly restrained; Cunningham-style blue hood stripes over white. But designer Bill Porter, inspired by an abstract design on a Tiffany vase, sketched out what he thought would be a cool graphic cue for the next gen Firebird, which was honed by Norm Inouye.

Porter taped the graphic to the hood of the styling studio clay model to gauge the reaction of GM's head styling honcho Bill Mitchell. It did not go well, as Mitchell allegedly let loose with a string of profanities. But it did appear on the 1970-72 Trans Ams, albeit as a very small decal on the nose.

In 1971 a persistent GM designer named John Schinella decided to re-present the idea to Mitchell. He noted that Mitchell rode a custom Yamaha bike painted black and gold in graphics like the John Player Special F1 car. Schinella applied an enormous Screaming Chicken decal on a black Firebird, parked it next to Mitchell's custom Yamaha.

This time Mitchell relented, and the idea was approved. The first 3 "hood birds" are in top secret August 1971 photo (1). They were offered for sale in September 1972 with the rollout of the 1973 model year. Not all Trans Ams had them, it was optional graphics package code WW7. But the buying public clamored for them.

And why not? It's exactly the kind of statement that the kind of person who wanted a Trans Am wanted to make. Loud, brash, unapologetic, a 10 minute Free Bird guitar solo on wheels. U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!Image
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Pontiac wasn't unique, or first, in offering bold decal graphics. Chrysler built branding around the "Scat Pack" concept, like the 1968 Dodge Super Bee and little brother Dodge Dart Swinger. By 1970 the was an entire panoply of bold decal options for Dodges and Plymouths; AAR stripes (2), "billboard stripes" (3), and "hockey sticks" (4).Image
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Mopar's branding success begat imitators, like Ford's Boss and Mach 1 Mustang packages for 1969. AMC offered an entire line of bold patriotic paint schemes for 1969, including the AMX Super Stock, the Rebel, and Hurst SC/Rambler (2). Even the Trans Am's GM stablemate Chevy Camaro got a freak flag hood decal in 1974.

By the end of the 1970s it sort of went from the sublime to the ridiculous. Witness the rebadged Mitsubishi Plymouth Fire Arrow for 1979.

The Trans Am Screaming Chicken soldiered on into the 90s, but for the most part those kinds of bold graphics faded away in the wake of OPEC oil shortages and performance-throttling emission controls. Just as fashion tamed down, so did the wild paint and decals.

Why? Among street racers, there is deep respect for "sleepers" - cars that look unsuspectingly mild and frumpy but underneath are incredibly powerful and fast. By the mid 1970s these graphic package cars were the opposite - loudly proclaiming power and speed, but underneath a scant 120 wimpy catalytic converted horsepower. All hat / no cattle as it were.

Oh but it was a giddy time, even if the graphics were ironic.Image
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Read 15 tweets
Jun 28
En 1937, un arqueólogo peruano descubrió algo imposible tras retirar maleza en los Andes. Bajo la tierra encontró un impresionante acueducto precolombino tallado a mano hace más de 3.000 años que desvía el agua del Pacífico hacia el Atlántico. Tira del hilo 🧵👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽 Image
A 20 kilómetros de la ciudad peruana de Cajamarca se encuentra Cumbemayo, un complejo arqueológico rodeado por un inmenso bosque de rocas volcánicas afiladas. Su nombre proviene de la lengua quechua "kumpi mayu", que significa "canal de agua bien construido". Image
Este yacimiento alberga una de las obras de ingeniería hidráulica más antiguas y sorprendentes de toda América. Se trata de un canal de agua tallado directamente sobre la roca sólida de la montaña, una construcción que está datada alrededor del año 1.000 antes de nuestra era. Image
Read 19 tweets