Recent well liked threads
"Engrasar la propaganda COVID."
EL HILO 🧵
EL HILO 🧵
Febrero de 2020.
Marzo de 2020.
Black ppl are trying to mimic the things they envy about whites without understanding the processes that enabled those things to exist. People often ask me about “solutions” to the problems black ppl face, and to me, here is the main solution.
This thread explains that solution.
This thread explains that solution.
Thales was the first person to attempt to explain the world naturally, rather than using God or myth. In Babylon, Egypt, Persia, and the Greeks before Thales, phenomena were explained through myth and divine order. Thales broke free from this pattern in humanity.
Thales was also the first person to create a mathematical proof. Pamphile, an Egyptian woman known for being the first female historian, said that Thales was the first to inscribe in a circle a right-angle triangle, and attributed to him the creation of a proof.
Perplexity is increasing the risk I will be in a wheelchair for life.
Perplexity @perplexity_ai causes medical harm. Only because I have medical and research expertise am I able to catch the errors. (Also because I feed it all the information.
My brain is compromised by @KPMemberService Kaiser Permanente negligent prescribing of fluoroquinolone antibiotic that risks irreversible debilitation - like my inability to walk and balance normally - and causes NMDA receptor excitotoxicity that leads to always revving brain. This causes crushing fatigue, brain fog, executive dysfunction [motivation]).
Plus I have ADHD. I fed Perplexity the facts and it told me over and over it gave me a powerful version for the IMR (urgent medical review request for the Dept of Managed Healthcare) I have to file to prevent my being in a wheelchair for life from the progressive and progressing death of muscle in my foot from edema (swelling) compressing the calcaneal nerve in my heel and denervating the muscle. Cutting off nerve signal causing "fatty infiltration" on MRI *I* had to write myself to get it correct - and my absolute hero of a gynecologist put in for me.
My doctors are now blocked by administrators from giving me care. I must go through a "care coordinator," and the two I've been given are not doctors and tell me they cannot connect me to care. WOW.
Massive violation of @CADMHC and CA biz and professions code, especially because one engaged in the felony practice of the administrative practice of medicine. KP admin assigned as my care coordinator one week. He tells me can't connect me to any care bc not a doctor. I tell him emergency - must stop muscle death plus life-threatening tachycardia (cardiac mimicking but all cardiac possible causes ruled out with tests I fought for) and dizziness and falls from it.
I passed out on the phone in a recorded call with excellent Member Services grievance employee Rainbow. Told her to have KP higherups listen to recording. I also couldn't breathe on call before that, and lemme tell you: I cannot act AT ALL and wouldn't. I don't fake symptoms. And anyone with actual medical expertise in CVD etc. will identify what's going on in that call.
So here's how utterly evil as a shit source ui@perplexity_ai is. And I know exactly what needs to be in this thing, including the legal ways of stating things and the support necessary for DMHC approval; I'm just terribly sick.
Anyone who uses Perplexity without expertise in a subject area is really screwed.
@KPMemberService file this as an urgent, expedited, escalated grievance and all my grievance bits in KP portal and here from April 21 and 22 and any April 20 are all to be filed in this way and also sent to Risk Management.
Perplexity @perplexity_ai causes medical harm. Only because I have medical and research expertise am I able to catch the errors. (Also because I feed it all the information.
My brain is compromised by @KPMemberService Kaiser Permanente negligent prescribing of fluoroquinolone antibiotic that risks irreversible debilitation - like my inability to walk and balance normally - and causes NMDA receptor excitotoxicity that leads to always revving brain. This causes crushing fatigue, brain fog, executive dysfunction [motivation]).
Plus I have ADHD. I fed Perplexity the facts and it told me over and over it gave me a powerful version for the IMR (urgent medical review request for the Dept of Managed Healthcare) I have to file to prevent my being in a wheelchair for life from the progressive and progressing death of muscle in my foot from edema (swelling) compressing the calcaneal nerve in my heel and denervating the muscle. Cutting off nerve signal causing "fatty infiltration" on MRI *I* had to write myself to get it correct - and my absolute hero of a gynecologist put in for me.
My doctors are now blocked by administrators from giving me care. I must go through a "care coordinator," and the two I've been given are not doctors and tell me they cannot connect me to care. WOW.
Massive violation of @CADMHC and CA biz and professions code, especially because one engaged in the felony practice of the administrative practice of medicine. KP admin assigned as my care coordinator one week. He tells me can't connect me to any care bc not a doctor. I tell him emergency - must stop muscle death plus life-threatening tachycardia (cardiac mimicking but all cardiac possible causes ruled out with tests I fought for) and dizziness and falls from it.
I passed out on the phone in a recorded call with excellent Member Services grievance employee Rainbow. Told her to have KP higherups listen to recording. I also couldn't breathe on call before that, and lemme tell you: I cannot act AT ALL and wouldn't. I don't fake symptoms. And anyone with actual medical expertise in CVD etc. will identify what's going on in that call.
So here's how utterly evil as a shit source ui@perplexity_ai is. And I know exactly what needs to be in this thing, including the legal ways of stating things and the support necessary for DMHC approval; I'm just terribly sick.
Anyone who uses Perplexity without expertise in a subject area is really screwed.
@KPMemberService file this as an urgent, expedited, escalated grievance and all my grievance bits in KP portal and here from April 21 and 22 and any April 20 are all to be filed in this way and also sent to Risk Management.
Hey, @KPMemberService, way to go, leaving me with untreated daily tachycardia -- bpm while seated calmly at desk. Pounding heart, dyspnea (clutching lungs), and I won't stand because that intermittently causes me to pass out and fall.
Kaiser is doing nothing to treat and everything to leave me in danger. Each IV Magnesium dose (too low and not enough hours for repletion of my FQ chelation depleted intracellular magnesium) transiently allows me to walk normally and balance (though my legs still have terrible heaviness) and normalizes the leaping and diving BP though not the tachycardia.
A MAJOR reason I need magnesium is for the dangerous toxic metabolite buildup that Kaiser doctor just ignored despite lab saying TEST THIS PATIENT AGAIN! He was too incurious and apparently too determined to "prove" his entirely scientifically ignorant and illegitimate contention that my massive multisystems damage aligning entirely with the temporality of FQ and the chemical pathology were instead due to my eating a ketogenic diet.
He sees C6 C8 C10 and C2 C8 ratio and has not a clue as to what they are (I say that because though he is damagingly ignorant of science on FQ and lipids and much more, I don't see evidence that he's a psychopath trying to kill me). He is so utterly incurious - and my opinion is that it is because he saw the word "ketosis" or "keto" in the lab report - that he just wrote a quick note like "ketogenic diet" and ignored the rest!!! Monstrous negligence.
This indicates a toxic metabolite buildup due to a serious fatty acid metabolism issue and no, not genetic, from childhood MCAD - I've metabolized fat fine all my life till being physically ruined by the negligent prescription of a FQ antibiotic.
I could die from this - as noted in MCAD lit - from a hypoglycemic episode. Also I'm not getting nutrients I need because of the metab issue shown in this lab. It doesn't even give the numbers (awful) and I probably can't get them expediently. AS THE ONLY ONE WITH EXPERTISE AND SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE ON FQ INJURY in the KP / Amy Alkon "care" circle.
Not one doctor denying me care, iatrogenically harming me, or writing wrong MRIs that cause me harm in supposedly showing there is nothign wrong with me (Hello?! Radiologist "too wide a field of view" to see tendon detail. Head of physiatry wrote hand/wrist MRI ignorantly - MRI of them together instead of separate L/R hand and L/R wrist - and for wrong condit - "diffuse pain" - which I did not have.
Refused to write for FQ injury, denied I have it with no knowledge or clinical competency, violating duty/standard of care plus there's failure to refer.
She then caused massive delay in my getting correct MRIs as she wrote them after KP was forced to provide them by @CADMHC. In November, I called for her to retract. I refuse to be treated by her or any doctor without scope of practice/expertise/clinical expertise and competency in my condition, fluoroquinolone injury. I left message after message w member services demanding she retract. Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb. I finally told dept scheduler for her that I would sue her if she didn't retract.
I then had to find someone to put these in. Lovely ortho physicians asst did but didn't have ordering scope or knowledge to do them correctly. (I wrote and gave them to him - my MRIs are metic correct, checked by radiologist friend in top position /hospital.)
Then he went on strike so no correcting them. Then I fought and fought and got shoulder and hand wrist corrected and got them - showing major damage. This would have been prevented if KP had followed Knox Keene and CA biz/prof code and more (medical ethics and the law) on Oct 7 when notified in writing by me (to KP via cornea surgeon who harmed me) and provided me with specialist, diagnosis (neither of which I have now APRIL 22, 2026!).
My hands and wrists are my life - typing is integral to my rhythm as a writer and work process.
Kaiser is putting me in a wheelchair with every bit of delay of the IV magnesium. I will file with the medical board on every doctor who has treated or denied with no specialty in the condition I have, harming me with wrong and delayed and denied necessary care.
DMHC will surely impose major fines on KP because I will show that I'm far from the only one given no diagnosis, no specialist. It is a pattern of institutional negligence, failure of duty and standard of care, failure to refer and violation of Knox Keene, DMHC regulations, CA business and professions code and more.
There is proven safety gating for the IV mg 12 hr/ 2 g hr mag chloride (alt sulfate) with commensurate 0.9% saline from preeclampsia standards (Lu, Nightingale 2000) and NO DANGER. Serum and RBC tests not valid for this. False positive (though my RBC that came back April 6 by Dr. C, my hero gyno, is low - 3.9 below the normal level and should be high normal after more than one IV infusion of 2 g. Too low for more than transient improvement but only meaningful improvement and Kaiser just letting me be increasingly debilitated with no treatment leads to "refractory" standard (as I take 10,000 mg glycinate and aspartate daily without it showing up in my system because mg is chelated/not avail to system not only during taking the drug but afterward thru FQ remnants in system and harm to mitochondria and oxidative harm).
Also, it's simply INHUMANE for all these Kaiser doctors entirely ignorant of the FQ science, with no clinical competency, and one doctor using medical AI (Open Evidence) without synthesis of imperfect bits of evidence one must pull together from various papers then employ physiological and biochemistry science to validate IV Mg as a potential treatment) - when there are no others and when KP doctors denying care with no scope have not a clue as to what care should be provided.
So I'm left with progressive and terrifying inability to walk and balance and with dangerous episodes of untreated tachycardia (with all cardiac possible causes ruled out - and Kaiser cardiologist says she can't give me the necessary tests for the dysautonomia driven tachycardia and other symptoms. These are necessary to see the small fiber nerve damage leading to failures of electrical regulation causing the problems.)
KAISER IS SITTING BY WHILE I AM INCREASINGLY DEBILITATED AND UNABLE TO WALK AND BALANCE -worse every day-- and suffer life-threatening tachycardia and falls simply on standing up. And I have dangerous elevated toxic metabolites and many other dangerous symptoms.
DIAGNOSIS and SPECIALIST NEVER PROVIDED. SINCE OCT 7, 2025. It is now April 22, 2026.
@KPMemberService file this as an urgent expedited escalate grievance - emergency - and send to risk management and that jovial looking Kaiser CEO, Gregory Adams, earning $12 million plus a year to preside over the KP denial of care business as usual.
And again, I'm far from alone. And I will work to help others after I complete (I hope) my race to refuse to let Kaiser Permanente put me in a wheelchair with its massive law and medical ethics violating de facto refusal of specialist in my condition and diagnosis and all the providers treating with NO SCOPE OF PRACTICE in the specific condition of fluoroquinolone injury I have.
Kaiser is doing nothing to treat and everything to leave me in danger. Each IV Magnesium dose (too low and not enough hours for repletion of my FQ chelation depleted intracellular magnesium) transiently allows me to walk normally and balance (though my legs still have terrible heaviness) and normalizes the leaping and diving BP though not the tachycardia.
A MAJOR reason I need magnesium is for the dangerous toxic metabolite buildup that Kaiser doctor just ignored despite lab saying TEST THIS PATIENT AGAIN! He was too incurious and apparently too determined to "prove" his entirely scientifically ignorant and illegitimate contention that my massive multisystems damage aligning entirely with the temporality of FQ and the chemical pathology were instead due to my eating a ketogenic diet.
He sees C6 C8 C10 and C2 C8 ratio and has not a clue as to what they are (I say that because though he is damagingly ignorant of science on FQ and lipids and much more, I don't see evidence that he's a psychopath trying to kill me). He is so utterly incurious - and my opinion is that it is because he saw the word "ketosis" or "keto" in the lab report - that he just wrote a quick note like "ketogenic diet" and ignored the rest!!! Monstrous negligence.
This indicates a toxic metabolite buildup due to a serious fatty acid metabolism issue and no, not genetic, from childhood MCAD - I've metabolized fat fine all my life till being physically ruined by the negligent prescription of a FQ antibiotic.
I could die from this - as noted in MCAD lit - from a hypoglycemic episode. Also I'm not getting nutrients I need because of the metab issue shown in this lab. It doesn't even give the numbers (awful) and I probably can't get them expediently. AS THE ONLY ONE WITH EXPERTISE AND SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE ON FQ INJURY in the KP / Amy Alkon "care" circle.
Not one doctor denying me care, iatrogenically harming me, or writing wrong MRIs that cause me harm in supposedly showing there is nothign wrong with me (Hello?! Radiologist "too wide a field of view" to see tendon detail. Head of physiatry wrote hand/wrist MRI ignorantly - MRI of them together instead of separate L/R hand and L/R wrist - and for wrong condit - "diffuse pain" - which I did not have.
Refused to write for FQ injury, denied I have it with no knowledge or clinical competency, violating duty/standard of care plus there's failure to refer.
She then caused massive delay in my getting correct MRIs as she wrote them after KP was forced to provide them by @CADMHC. In November, I called for her to retract. I refuse to be treated by her or any doctor without scope of practice/expertise/clinical expertise and competency in my condition, fluoroquinolone injury. I left message after message w member services demanding she retract. Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb. I finally told dept scheduler for her that I would sue her if she didn't retract.
I then had to find someone to put these in. Lovely ortho physicians asst did but didn't have ordering scope or knowledge to do them correctly. (I wrote and gave them to him - my MRIs are metic correct, checked by radiologist friend in top position /hospital.)
Then he went on strike so no correcting them. Then I fought and fought and got shoulder and hand wrist corrected and got them - showing major damage. This would have been prevented if KP had followed Knox Keene and CA biz/prof code and more (medical ethics and the law) on Oct 7 when notified in writing by me (to KP via cornea surgeon who harmed me) and provided me with specialist, diagnosis (neither of which I have now APRIL 22, 2026!).
My hands and wrists are my life - typing is integral to my rhythm as a writer and work process.
Kaiser is putting me in a wheelchair with every bit of delay of the IV magnesium. I will file with the medical board on every doctor who has treated or denied with no specialty in the condition I have, harming me with wrong and delayed and denied necessary care.
DMHC will surely impose major fines on KP because I will show that I'm far from the only one given no diagnosis, no specialist. It is a pattern of institutional negligence, failure of duty and standard of care, failure to refer and violation of Knox Keene, DMHC regulations, CA business and professions code and more.
There is proven safety gating for the IV mg 12 hr/ 2 g hr mag chloride (alt sulfate) with commensurate 0.9% saline from preeclampsia standards (Lu, Nightingale 2000) and NO DANGER. Serum and RBC tests not valid for this. False positive (though my RBC that came back April 6 by Dr. C, my hero gyno, is low - 3.9 below the normal level and should be high normal after more than one IV infusion of 2 g. Too low for more than transient improvement but only meaningful improvement and Kaiser just letting me be increasingly debilitated with no treatment leads to "refractory" standard (as I take 10,000 mg glycinate and aspartate daily without it showing up in my system because mg is chelated/not avail to system not only during taking the drug but afterward thru FQ remnants in system and harm to mitochondria and oxidative harm).
Also, it's simply INHUMANE for all these Kaiser doctors entirely ignorant of the FQ science, with no clinical competency, and one doctor using medical AI (Open Evidence) without synthesis of imperfect bits of evidence one must pull together from various papers then employ physiological and biochemistry science to validate IV Mg as a potential treatment) - when there are no others and when KP doctors denying care with no scope have not a clue as to what care should be provided.
So I'm left with progressive and terrifying inability to walk and balance and with dangerous episodes of untreated tachycardia (with all cardiac possible causes ruled out - and Kaiser cardiologist says she can't give me the necessary tests for the dysautonomia driven tachycardia and other symptoms. These are necessary to see the small fiber nerve damage leading to failures of electrical regulation causing the problems.)
KAISER IS SITTING BY WHILE I AM INCREASINGLY DEBILITATED AND UNABLE TO WALK AND BALANCE -worse every day-- and suffer life-threatening tachycardia and falls simply on standing up. And I have dangerous elevated toxic metabolites and many other dangerous symptoms.
DIAGNOSIS and SPECIALIST NEVER PROVIDED. SINCE OCT 7, 2025. It is now April 22, 2026.
@KPMemberService file this as an urgent expedited escalate grievance - emergency - and send to risk management and that jovial looking Kaiser CEO, Gregory Adams, earning $12 million plus a year to preside over the KP denial of care business as usual.
And again, I'm far from alone. And I will work to help others after I complete (I hope) my race to refuse to let Kaiser Permanente put me in a wheelchair with its massive law and medical ethics violating de facto refusal of specialist in my condition and diagnosis and all the providers treating with NO SCOPE OF PRACTICE in the specific condition of fluoroquinolone injury I have.
So, if I go through @KPMemberService I will be told to go to ER where they will not give me magnesium and have no other treatment they can give for dysautonomia driven cardiac mimicking symptoms. And I am told by Kaiser doctors with no scope of practice and admins to go to the ER. Where two male doctors have refused to let me detail the important information (data in my KP record like muscle death in foot and why cardiac causes I had ruled out are not the issue but neuropathy-driven dysautonomia is. And yes, I've been diagnosed by KP neuro with small fiber neuropathy and every day, my feet lose feeling. Nothing done by Kaiser.
So Kaiser is leaving me without diagnosis and without any practitioner with expertise in my condition.
I am going to "lie" on this form to get to talk to someone but only because it is an emergency and I have no other means of protecting myself. I'm notifying you of that - I will not say I have the frequent dyspnea I do (shortness of breath) because I leave myself at life-threatening risk if I check that since I cannot get treatment at the ER. They deem me "hypochondriacal" -- utter falsehood. I have documented harm in my KP chart but belig. male doctors B & B talked over me and refused to let them tell them important data to know to treat my progressive loss of ambulation and daily tachycardia and intermittent falls.
Two women ER doctors did ONE thing - these are Dr. Ba. and Dr. Esc. - they listened to me. Both diagnosed hypomagnesemia and gave me IV mag. Dr. Ba witnessed the incredible marked improvement in my ability to walk and balance afterward.
So Kaiser is leaving me without diagnosis and without any practitioner with expertise in my condition.
I am going to "lie" on this form to get to talk to someone but only because it is an emergency and I have no other means of protecting myself. I'm notifying you of that - I will not say I have the frequent dyspnea I do (shortness of breath) because I leave myself at life-threatening risk if I check that since I cannot get treatment at the ER. They deem me "hypochondriacal" -- utter falsehood. I have documented harm in my KP chart but belig. male doctors B & B talked over me and refused to let them tell them important data to know to treat my progressive loss of ambulation and daily tachycardia and intermittent falls.
Two women ER doctors did ONE thing - these are Dr. Ba. and Dr. Esc. - they listened to me. Both diagnosed hypomagnesemia and gave me IV mag. Dr. Ba witnessed the incredible marked improvement in my ability to walk and balance afterward.
Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.
The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade.
Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.
Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.
The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade.
Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.
Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.
The leadership rotated, but the trend did not. The super cycle powers ahead.
The Quantix Commodity Index (QCI, the modern GSCI) Total Return is up 217% since October 2020, when we called the super cycle. The names rotated — gold, silver, copper, oil, live cattle, coffee, cocoa, aluminium. But not the trend. Nasdaq returned 130%. The S&P 500, 85%.
Commodities were the top asset class. Nobody allocated. Capital piled into the Mag 7 — $770 billion of 2026 capex, nearly half of it commodities. Amazon alone consumes more than 3 million BOE/d of primary energy, more than most OPEC countries. The Mag 7 is the largest unhedged molecule short ever underwritten by an equity market...
…at the exact moment supply has never been more constrained. Hormuz is shut-in. China has weaponized the periodic table. Copper mines remain shuttered. Ukrainian drones push deeper into Russia, taking commodity supply with them. A multi-polar world demands thicker supply chains. Copper and the "atom" complex print fresh records this week. Every signal that should drive allocators into the "molecule" complex is flashing green simultaneously — for the first time since the 1970s.
And yet oil struggles to hold $105 — even as every signal points to a disruption that deepens and one we believe will outlast any "deal.” The energy sector trades 8% below its pre-Hormuz level and sits at 4.0% of the S&P 500 market cap. At $105 oil, its 2026 FCF yield is 13%. The S&P 500 is at 2.6% — the lowest since the GFC, 1,000bp below energy. The hyperscalers generate close to zero. Something has to give.
This paradox explains why oil struggles to trade higher. Capital is not rotating. The marginal dollar of investable savings still flows into the AI buildout, not the physical infrastructure that feeds it. Until that reverses, Brent faces headwinds. The ceiling on oil is not Washington. It is Exxon's cost of capital — woefully mispriced. Underbidding the equities is the same as underbidding the back end of the curve. The back end is suppressing the entire curve and spot prices.
1/10
The Quantix Commodity Index (QCI, the modern GSCI) Total Return is up 217% since October 2020, when we called the super cycle. The names rotated — gold, silver, copper, oil, live cattle, coffee, cocoa, aluminium. But not the trend. Nasdaq returned 130%. The S&P 500, 85%.
Commodities were the top asset class. Nobody allocated. Capital piled into the Mag 7 — $770 billion of 2026 capex, nearly half of it commodities. Amazon alone consumes more than 3 million BOE/d of primary energy, more than most OPEC countries. The Mag 7 is the largest unhedged molecule short ever underwritten by an equity market...
…at the exact moment supply has never been more constrained. Hormuz is shut-in. China has weaponized the periodic table. Copper mines remain shuttered. Ukrainian drones push deeper into Russia, taking commodity supply with them. A multi-polar world demands thicker supply chains. Copper and the "atom" complex print fresh records this week. Every signal that should drive allocators into the "molecule" complex is flashing green simultaneously — for the first time since the 1970s.
And yet oil struggles to hold $105 — even as every signal points to a disruption that deepens and one we believe will outlast any "deal.” The energy sector trades 8% below its pre-Hormuz level and sits at 4.0% of the S&P 500 market cap. At $105 oil, its 2026 FCF yield is 13%. The S&P 500 is at 2.6% — the lowest since the GFC, 1,000bp below energy. The hyperscalers generate close to zero. Something has to give.
This paradox explains why oil struggles to trade higher. Capital is not rotating. The marginal dollar of investable savings still flows into the AI buildout, not the physical infrastructure that feeds it. Until that reverses, Brent faces headwinds. The ceiling on oil is not Washington. It is Exxon's cost of capital — woefully mispriced. Underbidding the equities is the same as underbidding the back end of the curve. The back end is suppressing the entire curve and spot prices.
1/10
The largest supply shock in history is pricing into the curve, not the backend (yet).
I've been saying this since 2004: the curve shape reflects the fundamentals. The long end reflects the industry's marginal cost, incorporating the cost of capital which are ultimately driven by liquidity.
ICE Brent spot is $107/bbl, while the three-year is at $75/bbl. Percent backwardation — which strips out price-level effects — hit an all-time high in April. It remains near record today. The largest oil supply shock in history is reasonably priced into the curve, and it likely has much more to run. Remember we are in the depths of the shoulder months, so there is no stress on the system.
Markets are fixated on Dated Brent differentials, c.$5/bbl last night which is down sharply, but that is a microcosm of the oil market. Dated Brent is Sullum Voe. One North Sea terminal. Not the global oil market.
Spot has not exceeded the Russia-Ukraine peak for one reason: the back end of the curve sits $10–$12/bbl below where it was then.
But the long end isn't a clean signal. Liquidity past 24 months is thin, dominated by producer hedges. Cal-29 isn't where the market thinks oil settles. It is where corporate treasurers are forced to transact, which makes it consistent with their costs of capital.
The cleaner signal is the energy equity complex — long-dated call options on undeveloped reserves. ExxonMobil holds 14 years. Chevron, 15. Equity prices integrate the entire forward strip. Diverge too far and an arbitrage opens. In a capacity-constrained world those reserves are worth more, not less. The equity market is pricing the opposite. Every oil CEO has warned we exit this disruption with lasting supply problems. The market refuses to listen.
S&P Energy ÷ S&P 500 can be used as a proxy for the long-dated oil price, and it currently implies long-run Brent of ~$70 — below the strip at $72–$75 — but not too far away.
A proxy for the curve shape follows: Brent ÷ (S&P Energy ÷ S&P 500). Or rewritten: Brent × S&P 500 ÷ S&P Energy. That single number proxies the FCF yield differential between the energy sector and the rest of the market. That has been bouncing around all-time highs.
When the FCF yield gap reaches extremes, investors should rotate. Even at $75 — not spot's $105 — the energy complex yields 600-1,000 bp above the S&P 500. In 2022, investors did rotate and those that did weathered the ensuing 35% collapse in the NASDAQ much better than those that didn’t.
The equity market is betting Brent falls to realign FCF yields. If it doesn't, capital has to buy Energy and sell the Mag 7. A 1,000bp differential in FCF yields cannot persist. And if oil breaks out as we expect, something has to give. You know which one I think will give. That is the Revenge of the Old Economy!
We are at the tipping point.
2/10
I've been saying this since 2004: the curve shape reflects the fundamentals. The long end reflects the industry's marginal cost, incorporating the cost of capital which are ultimately driven by liquidity.
ICE Brent spot is $107/bbl, while the three-year is at $75/bbl. Percent backwardation — which strips out price-level effects — hit an all-time high in April. It remains near record today. The largest oil supply shock in history is reasonably priced into the curve, and it likely has much more to run. Remember we are in the depths of the shoulder months, so there is no stress on the system.
Markets are fixated on Dated Brent differentials, c.$5/bbl last night which is down sharply, but that is a microcosm of the oil market. Dated Brent is Sullum Voe. One North Sea terminal. Not the global oil market.
Spot has not exceeded the Russia-Ukraine peak for one reason: the back end of the curve sits $10–$12/bbl below where it was then.
But the long end isn't a clean signal. Liquidity past 24 months is thin, dominated by producer hedges. Cal-29 isn't where the market thinks oil settles. It is where corporate treasurers are forced to transact, which makes it consistent with their costs of capital.
The cleaner signal is the energy equity complex — long-dated call options on undeveloped reserves. ExxonMobil holds 14 years. Chevron, 15. Equity prices integrate the entire forward strip. Diverge too far and an arbitrage opens. In a capacity-constrained world those reserves are worth more, not less. The equity market is pricing the opposite. Every oil CEO has warned we exit this disruption with lasting supply problems. The market refuses to listen.
S&P Energy ÷ S&P 500 can be used as a proxy for the long-dated oil price, and it currently implies long-run Brent of ~$70 — below the strip at $72–$75 — but not too far away.
A proxy for the curve shape follows: Brent ÷ (S&P Energy ÷ S&P 500). Or rewritten: Brent × S&P 500 ÷ S&P Energy. That single number proxies the FCF yield differential between the energy sector and the rest of the market. That has been bouncing around all-time highs.
When the FCF yield gap reaches extremes, investors should rotate. Even at $75 — not spot's $105 — the energy complex yields 600-1,000 bp above the S&P 500. In 2022, investors did rotate and those that did weathered the ensuing 35% collapse in the NASDAQ much better than those that didn’t.
The equity market is betting Brent falls to realign FCF yields. If it doesn't, capital has to buy Energy and sell the Mag 7. A 1,000bp differential in FCF yields cannot persist. And if oil breaks out as we expect, something has to give. You know which one I think will give. That is the Revenge of the Old Economy!
We are at the tipping point.
2/10
Enzo Ferrari tenía 89 años, sentía la muerte cerca y odiaba que sus coches se hubieran vuelto juguetes lujosos para ricos. En un ataque de rabia, ordenó fabricar el coche más salvaje y peligroso de la historia como su último legado. Así nació el mítico F40. Tira del hilo 🧵👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽
A mediados de los 80, la marca italiana atravesaba una peligrosa crisis de identidad. Modelos legendarios como el Testarossa eran un rotundo éxito de ventas, pero se habían llenado de aire acondicionado, asientos de cuero y lujos que los hacían pesados y lentos.
El viejo Enzo, un purista absoluto de las carreras, estaba profundamente asqueado con esta deriva comercial y escuchaba a los clientes quejarse de que los nuevos Ferrari ya no daban miedo al conducirlos. Para el hombre que solo vivía para competir, eso era un insulto imperdonable
En el siglo XIX, potencias como Estados Unidos e Inglaterra eran enormes paraísos piratas literarios que robaban las obras de los genios europeos para hacerse de oro sin pagarles nada. Hasta que España lideró una alianza histórica para frenar el saqueo. Tira del hilo 🧵👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽
Antes de 1879, la propiedad intelectual se evaporaba al cruzar las fronteras. Si un autor español publicaba un éxito en Madrid, las imprentas de París o Londres podían traducirlo, imprimirlo y venderlo al día siguiente sin permiso ni castigo, y viceversa.
Los escritores más famosos de la época, como Victor Hugo, estaban furiosos, ya que sus obras generaban fortunas incalculables en el extranjero, pero ellos vivían de las migajas de sus mercados locales. El talento creativo estaba totalmente desprotegido.
🧵 THREAD: India has a “Navgrah Dham” that most people don’t know about… 🇮🇳✨
India is not just a land of temples…
It’s a land of cosmic energy.
And there is one sacred place where people come to seek blessings from all 9 planets (Navgrah). 🌑🪐
India is not just a land of temples…
It’s a land of cosmic energy.
And there is one sacred place where people come to seek blessings from all 9 planets (Navgrah). 🌑🪐
1/ Yes… a temple where you don’t worship only one deity,
but the entire planetary system that controls destiny.
Because in Sanatan Dharma, planets are not “science” only…
They are living energies.
but the entire planetary system that controls destiny.
Because in Sanatan Dharma, planets are not “science” only…
They are living energies.
2/ This place is known as a powerful Navgrah Dham,
where devotees come from India & abroad to heal their:
🔻 Career blockages
🔻 Marriage delays
🔻 Health issues
🔻 Financial instability
🔻 Mental stress
where devotees come from India & abroad to heal their:
🔻 Career blockages
🔻 Marriage delays
🔻 Health issues
🔻 Financial instability
🔻 Mental stress
I'm a middle eastern historian. My own family were made refugees. And this is my honest view of the Nakba (“catastrophe”) - the displacement of around 700,000 Palestinian Arabs during the 1947–49 war surrounding the creation of Israel.
A thread. 🧵
A thread. 🧵
2/ Israel’s Declaration of Independence explicitly called on Arab inhabitants to remain and become equal citizens. The Arab response explicitly called for genocide zbd expulsion of Jews. So it's important to note one side is evidenced to have preferred peace from the outset.
3/ And importantly: around 150,000 Arabs DID remain inside Israel after the war.
Today their descendants make up around 20% of Israeli citizens.
That matters historically, because many 20th century ethnic conflicts ended in near-total expulsions.
Today their descendants make up around 20% of Israeli citizens.
That matters historically, because many 20th century ethnic conflicts ended in near-total expulsions.
Carl Jung had a strange method for changing your life from the inside out.
Not affirmations.
Not “manifesting.”
Practice these 4 steps for 10 days, and notice what happens to your anxiety: 🪡
1. What you refuse to imagine controls your life from the shadows.
Not affirmations.
Not “manifesting.”
Practice these 4 steps for 10 days, and notice what happens to your anxiety: 🪡
1. What you refuse to imagine controls your life from the shadows.
Jung didn’t believe in “manifestation.”
He believed most people never become who they are
because they never clearly admit what they secretly want.
He believed most people never become who they are
because they never clearly admit what they secretly want.
Step 1 is simple:
Ask yourself:
“What would I want if I stopped pretending I didn’t?”
Not what sounds practical.
Not what your anxious mind says is safe.
What is true?
Ask yourself:
“What would I want if I stopped pretending I didn’t?”
Not what sounds practical.
Not what your anxious mind says is safe.
What is true?
The EU is cutting steel import quotas by 47% from July 1, which could cost Ukraine up to €1 billion in lost export revenues.
Vodoviz, Metinvest: "They will completely kill any possibility of Ukrainian companies to deliver on the European market." — FT. 1/
Vodoviz, Metinvest: "They will completely kill any possibility of Ukrainian companies to deliver on the European market." — FT. 1/
Brussels will cut its steel import quota 47% from July 1 and add a 50% tariff on any additional imports. The measure was pushed by France, Spain and Poland in response to a glut caused by Chinese overproduction that has cost tens of thousands of jobs in European factories. 2/
To comply with WTO rules the reduced quota applies to all trading partners — including Ukraine, which has a free trade agreement with the EU. In initial negotiations in Geneva last month the Commission proposed a tariff-free bilateral quota of 713,000 tonnes for Ukraine. 3/
I ACCIDENTALLY UNLOCKED "GOD MODE" IN CHATGPT,
AND IT STARTED TEACHING ME THINGS I DIDN'T KNEW EXISTED.
HERE ARE THOSE 7 CHATGPT PROMPTS THAT WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING FOR YOU:
AND IT STARTED TEACHING ME THINGS I DIDN'T KNEW EXISTED.
HERE ARE THOSE 7 CHATGPT PROMPTS THAT WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING FOR YOU:
1. Forbidden Wisdom Decoder
Prompt:
What are the lesser-known, under-the-surface truths about [insert topic/field] that are rarely shared publicly because they challenge mainstream thinking? Explain them with historical context, real-world examples, and why they remain hidden.
Prompt:
What are the lesser-known, under-the-surface truths about [insert topic/field] that are rarely shared publicly because they challenge mainstream thinking? Explain them with historical context, real-world examples, and why they remain hidden.
2. Elite Mastery Roadmap
Prompt:
"Create a mastery roadmap for becoming world-class in [insert skill/field]. Include rare techniques, secret resources, and unconventional approaches that top 1% performers use but rarely share."
Prompt:
"Create a mastery roadmap for becoming world-class in [insert skill/field]. Include rare techniques, secret resources, and unconventional approaches that top 1% performers use but rarely share."
Japanese researchers found that pressing a specific point on your wrist for 60 seconds before sleep reduces cortisol by 34% and cuts the time to fall asleep in half.
It's been used in Japanese hospitals for 40 years.
It was never introduced to Western medicine. Read till end 🪡
It's been used in Japanese hospitals for 40 years.
It was never introduced to Western medicine. Read till end 🪡
His name is Dr Yoshio Manaka.
Researcher and physician.
Tokyo University Hospital.
He spent 40 years studying how pressure applied to specific points on the body regulates the autonomic nervous system.
Researcher and physician.
Tokyo University Hospital.
He spent 40 years studying how pressure applied to specific points on the body regulates the autonomic nervous system.
His findings were published in Japanese medical literature in the 1980s.
They never made it to the West. Not because they didn't work. Because there was nothing to patent.
They never made it to the West. Not because they didn't work. Because there was nothing to patent.
NATO war game ended with Russia cutting off the Baltics in 24 hours — because Germany froze politically while the US stayed out.
Retired Ukrainian Gen. Romanenko, playing Russia’s commander, says NATO’s biggest weakness was not troops but hesitation, FP. 1/
Retired Ukrainian Gen. Romanenko, playing Russia’s commander, says NATO’s biggest weakness was not troops but hesitation, FP. 1/
Scenario assumed a ceasefire in Ukraine by late 2026.
Russia rebuilt forces, left troops in Belarus after joint exercises, then used a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad as justification for escalation against Lithuania. 2/
Russia rebuilt forces, left troops in Belarus after joint exercises, then used a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad as justification for escalation against Lithuania. 2/
“Russian” plan focused on speed. 12,000 troops advanced from Belarus while forces from Kaliningrad moved east.
To link up near Marijampole and cut the Baltics off from Poland through the Suwalki Gap within 24 hours. 3/
To link up near Marijampole and cut the Baltics off from Poland through the Suwalki Gap within 24 hours. 3/
I went to the same nursery school as Wes Streeting and grew up on the housing estate opposite his.
Here is a little thread on what the East End was like at that time.
Take it as the East End equivalent of those Johnson / Cameron era Old Etonians explaining what Pop was like.
Here is a little thread on what the East End was like at that time.
Take it as the East End equivalent of those Johnson / Cameron era Old Etonians explaining what Pop was like.
Streeting's autobiography is a really good guide to this world. I read it recently and felt incredibly nostalgic. There were so many little details that rang true - the long queues in the drafty Whitechapel post office, the Wimpy opposite, riding on the brand new DLR in the late 80s.
But one thing rings true above all else - the importance of council housing.
But one thing rings true above all else - the importance of council housing.
After Wes is born, his mum is living at her mum's. There is not enough space for them all, but they are a low priority for council housing.
So Wes's mum pretends that her mum has thrown her out, in order to jump up the housing queue. It works and they get a place on the Clichy estate, opposite the Stifford estate where I grew up.
So Wes's mum pretends that her mum has thrown her out, in order to jump up the housing queue. It works and they get a place on the Clichy estate, opposite the Stifford estate where I grew up.
I'm a cardiologist. I take 7 supplements every single day.
Walk into any pharmacy and you'll see a hundred bottles promising miracles. Most are marketing. Some are actively harmful.
But a small few actually work — backed by real science, confirmed in my own practice, and taken by me personally every morning and every night.
Here's the honest list.
Walk into any pharmacy and you'll see a hundred bottles promising miracles. Most are marketing. Some are actively harmful.
But a small few actually work — backed by real science, confirmed in my own practice, and taken by me personally every morning and every night.
Here's the honest list.
2/5
Creatine — 5g in water every morning.
Most people think this is for gym bros. It's not. It helps every cell in your body produce energy more efficiently — including your heart muscle.
Stronger muscles as you age. Faster recovery. Sharper thinking. A heart that doesn't tire as easily.
Creatine — 5g in water every morning.
Most people think this is for gym bros. It's not. It helps every cell in your body produce energy more efficiently — including your heart muscle.
Stronger muscles as you age. Faster recovery. Sharper thinking. A heart that doesn't tire as easily.
3/5
Glycine — 5g before bed.
This amino acid cools your core body temperature just enough to let you fall asleep faster and stay asleep longer.
Patients tell me it's the first thing in years that let them sleep like they did in their twenties.
It also rebuilds collagen, supports your liver, and strengthens your gut lining — all while you're sleeping.
Magnesium glycinate — 400-500mg, also before bed.
75% of Americans are low. If you're stressed, cramping at night, sleeping poorly, or your blood pressure runs high — this is probably the missing piece. It's the supplement patients thank me for most often.
Glycine — 5g before bed.
This amino acid cools your core body temperature just enough to let you fall asleep faster and stay asleep longer.
Patients tell me it's the first thing in years that let them sleep like they did in their twenties.
It also rebuilds collagen, supports your liver, and strengthens your gut lining — all while you're sleeping.
Magnesium glycinate — 400-500mg, also before bed.
75% of Americans are low. If you're stressed, cramping at night, sleeping poorly, or your blood pressure runs high — this is probably the missing piece. It's the supplement patients thank me for most often.