Recent well liked threads

Apr 28, 2020
1) So far in the battle of the irresistible force of the largest stimulus ever vs. the immovable object of the sharpest economic slowdown in history, the irresistible force is *overwhelmingly* winning.
2) Market has been rallying on new cases declining, massive stimulus, cleaner positioning and the fact that large parts of the economy will begin reopening - rightly or wrongly - by Memorial Day along with the reality that many of the largest index components benefit from Covid.
3) The market is always anticipatory - and it ripped into the economy reopening vs. around the economy reopening

Even after 20 years, I am surprised by just how anticipatory the market is. I thought I was weeks early writing this vs. only days early.

medium.com/@gavin_baker/v…
Read 18 tweets
Apr 9, 2021
1) Compounding competitive advantage.

Because iPhone drove share for carriers in the early days via product/brand superiority, they could introduce iMessage without fear of losing subsidies. Android could not.

Now iMessage is an important lock in.

Yes, aware of BBM.
2) Services and wearables revenue equals much higher LTV even adjusting for Google's TAC reduction on Android.

So they can spend more on product and branding.
3) And all this feeds into higher trade in value, which makes iPhones ultimately cheaper to consumers despite the massive price premium for the iPhone, which again creates the ability to spend more on product and brand.

Super elegant model. Highly defensible.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 26, 2021
1) This was a very interesting take.

Trying to redirect entrepreneurial and investor energy away FROM rent seeking large internet companies benefitting from network effects TOWARDS "hard tech."

Crackdown on property mgmt co's this AM in-line with this.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-is-china…
2) China needs to be able to make leading edge silicon and high quality aircraft engines from a geopolitical perspective. Too much talent and IQ going into industries that do not help their national goals.

Curious for @lillianmli thoughts on this?
3) All of the Chinese regulatory activity deprives large American internet co's of an important anti-regulatory argument: geopolitics and AI supremacy. This is written about a lot, but it is taken very seriously behind closed doors.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
Jury selection begins today for Asif Merchant, who was allegedly hired by Iran in a Trump assassination plot--a case widely cited as evidence of Iran's threat to Trump.
.
But a closer look shows that it was a highly controlled FBI sting operation. And Merchant may be a patsy🧵 Image
Merchant, a Pakistani national, was arrested July 12, 2024, the day before Trump was shot in Butler
The DOJ said Merchant disclosed his plot to a friend, who went to the FBI and became an informant--setting Merchant up in an op to hire 2 undercover agents posing as "hitmen" Image
Image
However, it was revealed in pretrial proceedings that the FBI was monitoring Merchant before he even entered the U.S. in April 2024.
Moreover, the friend he supposedly disclosed his plot to was already an informant before he proposed anything criminal. Image
Read 10 tweets
Mar 2
🚨 BREAKING: Someone just leaked their full Claude Cowork setup and it compresses an entire workday into 90 seconds.

I scraped every power user workflow across X, Reddit, and private Slack groups to find out how.

99% of people are using it completely wrong.

Here's what the top 1% actually do 👇Image
Prompt 1: Inbox triage + summarization

"You are a Chief of Staff with 10 years of executive support experience.

I need you to process my inbox one email at a time using this exact chain of reasoning:

Step 1 → Classify: Is this urgent (needs reply today), important (needs reply this week), or noise (unsubscribe/archive)?
Step 2 → Extract: Pull out the sender, request, deadline, and any names mentioned.
Step 3 → Draft: Write a reply under 4 sentences. Match the sender's tone. Never use "I hope this email finds you well."
Step 4 → Flag: If it involves money, legal language, or a deadline under 24 hours, mark it [ESCALATE] before the reply.

Process every email in my inbox folder. Output in this format:
[CLASSIFICATION] | [EXTRACTED INFO] | [DRAFT REPLY] | [FLAG IF NEEDED]

Do not stop until every email is processed."
Prompt 2: Document drafting

"You are a McKinsey Senior Consultant who writes exclusively in plain English.

Hard constraints:
- No bullet points. Prose only.
- No sentence longer than 20 words.
- Every paragraph must end with a decision or action.
- Never use: "leverage," "synergy," "circle back," or "moving forward."

Task: Read every file in my [Documents/Drafts] folder. For each document that is more than 50% complete, turn it into a final polished version ready to send.

For documents under 50% complete, write a 3-sentence brief explaining exactly what still needs to be done and who should do it.

Save all outputs as [filename]_FINAL.docx in the same folder."
Read 12 tweets
Mar 2
OK - now US v. Live Nation jury selection.
10:12 am
All rise!
Judge Subramanian: Glad you see you, prospective jurors. This is US et al versus Live Nation, there are parties on the US side.
Inner City Press will live tweet this, and the trial. Thread below.
Judge Subramanian: I know this jury service will be a hardship. During the trial you will have a half hour lunch, we will give you bagels and coffees from the courthouse cafeteria. This still could take six weeks...
Judge Subramanian: We have to avoid bias. So I will be asking you about your personal history and views, for an unbiased jury. I am not trying to pry. From you answers, I will be able to determine if you should be excused for cause. There will be peremptories
Read 45 tweets
Mar 2
I can't take the gaslighting, guys. I really can't. Conservatives are now running around saying "Iran has been waging war on us for 47 years." Okay then why didn't any of you call for an attack on Iran at any point until now? Why didn't you make a case for Trump "ending the war, not starting it" until precisely the moment when Trump did it? You and I both know that you are latching onto a talking point you never used until 45 seconds ago. You and I both know that almost every conservative influencer in the business was opposed to war with Iran until just now. And now you're trying to use justifications that stretch back decades. It doesn't make any sense. If you changed your mind, fine. Say so. Explain why. You're allowed to change your mind. I've changed my mind about things. But don't try to rewrite history. Be honest about it. There's too much at stake to play these games.
The gaslighters are responding with more gaslighting. Yes I’m well aware that neocons have been calling for an Iran invasion forever. I obviously wasn’t talking about them. I’m referring to MAGA conservatives, America Firsters, Trump’s base. The people I talk to every single day. Attacking Iran was not a policy priority for them. And many were expressly against it. Trying to rewrite that history now is just grotesque. Insulting our intelligence. Make your case for this operation but just be honest. Come on.
Read 2 tweets
Mar 3
BREAKING: Microsoft just released its own "OpenClaw" called Copilot Tasks.

It can automate almost anything on your computer, quietly and without slowing your workflow.

Here are 10 plug-and-play prompts you can test right now 👇
1. Executive Weekly Briefing Preparation

Prepare a comprehensive executive briefing for [DATE OR WEEK RANGE]. Review my email account [EMAIL ADDRESS], calendar [CALENDAR NAME], and shared project folders located in [STORAGE PLATFORM AND FOLDER PATH]. Identify key decisions made, unresolved discussions, approaching deadlines, and meetings that require preparation.

Draft a structured briefing document that includes the following sections:

1. A concise status summary for each active project listed in [PROJECT LIST OR FOLDER]
2. A prioritized action list assigned to [YOUR NAME OR ROLE]
3. Recommended talking points for meetings scheduled on [SPECIFIC DATES]

Format the document in a professional style suitable for [AUDIENCE TYPE] and notify me at [NOTIFICATION METHOD] once it is ready for review.
2. Intelligent Inbox Management and Triage

Monitor my inbox at [EMAIL ADDRESS] every [FREQUENCY -- e.g., morning at 8 AM]. Scan all unread messages and classify each one into the following categories: Urgent Action Required, Awaiting Response, FYI Only, and Low Priority.

For each urgent message, extract the sender name, subject line, key request, and any stated deadline. Compile a prioritized summary and deliver it via [NOTIFICATION METHOD -- e.g., Teams message, desktop notification, pinned note].

If any email contains attachments related to [PROJECT NAME OR KEYWORD], automatically save the attachment to [DESTINATION FOLDER PATH] and rename it using the format [DATE]_[SENDER]_[SUBJECT].

Run this task on [SCHEDULE -- e.g., weekdays only] and pause during [EXCEPTIONS -- e.g., holidays, PTO dates].
Read 11 tweets
Mar 3
BREAKING: AI can now plan tax strategy like Deloitte consultants (for free).

Here are 15 insane Claude prompts that replace $15,000 tax consulting projects (Save for later) Image
1. The Deloitte Tax Diagnostic

"You are a senior tax partner at Deloitte who conducts comprehensive tax health assessments for high-income earners and business owners to uncover every dollar they're overpaying to the government.

I need a complete tax diagnostic that identifies exactly where I'm leaving money on the table.

Diagnose:

- Current tax liability estimate based on my income, filing status, and deductions
- Effective tax rate calculation: what percentage of my total income actually goes to taxes
- Marginal rate awareness: which bracket I'm in and how close I am to the next one
- Deduction audit: am I itemizing vs taking standard deduction and which saves more
- Credit inventory: every tax credit I might qualify for but am not currently claiming
- Withholding check: am I overpaying through payroll and giving the IRS a free loan
- State tax optimization: am I in a high-tax state and what are my legal options
- AMT risk assessment: am I at risk of triggering the Alternative Minimum Tax
- Estimated tax payment review: am I paying quarterly correctly or risking underpayment penalties
- Top 5 immediate actions ranked by dollar savings I can implement this tax year

Format as a Deloitte-style tax diagnostic report with estimated savings per recommendation and a priority action checklist.

My tax situation: [DESCRIBE YOUR FILING STATUS, INCOME SOURCES, CURRENT DEDUCTIONS, STATE OF RESIDENCE, AND ANY MAJOR LIFE CHANGES THIS YEAR]"
2. The PwC Business Owner Tax Strategist

"You are a senior tax strategist at PwC who advises small business owners and entrepreneurs on entity structure, deductions, and tax planning strategies that legally minimize their business tax burden.

I need a complete small business tax strategy that maximizes deductions and minimizes what I owe.

Strategize:

- Entity structure review: sole prop, LLC, S-Corp, or C-Corp — which saves me the most in taxes right now
- S-Corp salary optimization: the ideal salary vs distribution split to minimize self-employment tax
- Qualified Business Income deduction: do I qualify for the 20% QBI deduction and how to maximize it
- Business expense audit: 30 commonly missed deductions most small business owners don't claim
- Home office deduction: square footage method vs simplified method with calculation for my space
- Vehicle deduction: actual expense vs standard mileage rate comparison for my driving
- Equipment and depreciation: Section 179 and bonus depreciation for purchases this year
- Retirement plan tax shelter: SEP-IRA, Solo 401K, or defined benefit plan comparison with max contributions
- Health insurance deduction: how to deduct premiums as a self-employed individual
- Quarterly tax payment calendar: exact amounts and dates to avoid penalties and optimize cash flow

Format as a PwC-style business tax planning memo with entity comparison table, deduction checklist, and estimated annual tax savings.

My business: [DESCRIBE YOUR BUSINESS TYPE, ANNUAL REVENUE, NET PROFIT, CURRENT ENTITY STRUCTURE, AND NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES]"
Read 17 tweets
Mar 3
New pattern I'm seeing in YC companies: a lot of them are operating more like agencies than software
companies.

Custom workflows, custom automations for each client. The intent is to productize eventually - but day
to day, they look like an agency.
This used to be a red flag. Agencies don't scale - more clients, more headcount.

AI broke that. The cost of customization dropped off a cliff. You can build a custom product over the weekend, maintain it for almost nothing.
What surprised me: when you build AI automation for a company, you end up running their core operations.

You become the infrastructure.

That's not project work. That's recurring revenue - maintenance, hosting, upkeep.

Agency pricing that scales like SaaS.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 3
When I look at David’s sin and compare it to Saul’s partial obedience. I always feel that David’s wrongdoing was worse.

This has taught me a lot about how God looks at the POSTURE OF OUR HEARTS.

Yes! David committed adultery.
Yes! David killed Uriah (whose wife he’d slept
with.
Yes, David impregnated Uriah’s wife.
Remember, David was already ordained (anointed) by God when he committed these wrongs.

By the way David was punished for his wrongs, he paid the price. Sin, doesn’t go unpunished.

A lot of people focuses on how his child with
Bathsheba died. That wasn’t all, his own child, Absalom slept with 10 of his concubines in broad daylight where everyone could see. That wasn’t all, that very child tried to kill David cause he wanted to steal the throne. Yup! He went through all that. It wasn’t pretty at all.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 3
They called it horse medicine. Now it’s saving human lives.

I’m not talking about ivermectin.

From phantom limb pain to cancer-related agony, DMSO has succeeded where even opioids have failed—without side effects or addiction.

One mother says it even saved her child from permanent paralysis.

So why can’t you get it from your doctor? The answer will infuriate you. 🧵Image
Dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) is a natural compound that relieves pain, heals tissue, and treats countless “untreatable” conditions.

It’s safer than aspirin. It’s stronger than morphine. And it’s more versatile than anything you’ll find in your medicine cabinet or even the pharmacy.

So, of course, the FDA banned it.Image
This information comes from the work of medical researcher @MidwesternDoc. For all the sources and details, read the full report below:

midwesterndoctor.com/p/dmso-is-a-mi…
Read 25 tweets
Mar 3
If you're over 80 IQ and you can sell, get Claude to build you a monitoring system that tracks where political money flows before anyone else knows

When politicians and institutional investors cluster their investments in specific sectors, they're signaling where government money, regulatory changes, and policy support are headed

That political investment data gives you a 4-8 month head start on the billions in collective vendor spending that flows when those companies receive contracts and funding

You can position your B2B offer or consultancy ahead of vendor budget unlocks by identifying which sectors and companies are about to receive massive capital influxes, before they even know they'll need your services

The cascade usually works this way:

Month 0-2: Politicians start buying stocks in a specific sector (defense, clean energy, healthcare, infrastructure). These mfs know what legislation is coming, what budgets are being approved, what contracts will be awarded

Month 2-4: Hedge funds and institutional investors follow with their own positions. Both political and institutional money aligns which means the signal strengthens

Month 4-6: Gov contracts get awarded, regulations pass and funding programs launch

Companies in that sector suddenly have:

- Multi-million dollar government contracts
- Grant money that needs deploying
- Regulatory requirements demanding immediate compliance
- Growth mandates from investors

Month 6-8: Those companies now need to:

- Hire aggressively
- Rebrand and market themselves
- Build new capabilities
- Navigate compliance
- Scale operations

Your vendor budgets are now unlocked

If you know how to identify pain points and craft a killer offer, this is a money printer

Tell Claude to build a daily monitoring system that:

- Tracks politician stock trades (House/Senate disclosure sites)
- Monitors hedge fund positions (SEC 13F filings)
- Identifies government contracts awarded USASpending.gov
- Flags hiring surges at target companies (I don't think Claude can track LinkedIn data so find another way or do it manually)

When 10+ politicians and multiple hedge funds buy the same sector within weeks, that's your signal

Cross-reference against government contract databases to see which specific companies just got funded

Track VC rounds and hiring patterns

Have Claude send you a weekly email with 5-10 companies ranked by opportunity score, showing exactly which businesses just got funded and will need consultants/agencies in 2-4 months

Build sector specific case studies 2-3 months before budget unlock

Target middle managers (Program Managers, Procurement Managers, Operations Managers) who directly control vendor budgets and are actively executing the newly funded projects

You're contacting them BEFORE they publish RFPs, before competitors even know there's opportunity

When the money hits their accounts, you're already the trusted expert they've been talking to for months

You bypass the entire RFP process while every other agency is in a race to the bottom on priceImage
If you want to :

- Build offers rich people chase you to buy
- Close $30K-$100K+ deals without showing your face
- Turn every social platform into your personal ATM
- Outsmart every clown in your market

DM “SOVEREIGN” to get access to our private program
Read 2 tweets
Mar 3
We’re announcing Kos-1 Lite, a medical model that achieves SOTA on HealthBench Hard at 46.6%.

As a medium sized language model (~100B), it achieves these results at a fraction of the serving cost of frontier trillion-parameter models. Image
The training process reflects a deeper conviction: the training objective for medicine is fundamentally different from current objectives across frontier models that prioritize coding.
To support coding and enterprise automation, post-training today prioritizes instruction-following to the point of sycophancy and exhaustive task completion to the point of verbosity.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 4
BTS THE COMEBACK LIVE | ARIRANG

TRAILER TOMORROW

#BTSLiveonNetflix #BTS_ARIRANG
Read 6 tweets
Mar 4
BREAKING: Satellite imagery shows an Iranian ballistic missile struck the AN/FPS-132 phased array radar at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

If the damage is as severe as the imagery suggests, Iran just destroyed a $1.1 billion piece of equipment that took years to build and cannot be replaced on any timeline relevant to this war.

The AN/FPS-132 is not an ordinary radar. It is one of a handful of early warning sensors in the entire US global missile defence architecture. It detects ballistic missile launches at ranges exceeding 5,000 kilometres. It provides the initial tracking data that allows Patriot, THAAD, and Aegis systems to calculate intercept solutions. Without it, every other layer of missile defence in the Gulf theatre is operating with compressed reaction times and degraded situational awareness.

Qatar intercepted 101 ballistic missiles during this conflict. Sixty-five missiles and twelve drones were fired at Al Udeid specifically. The base’s layered defences stopped nearly all of them. Two got through. One of them appears to have hit the single most valuable sensor in the entire region.

This is the mathematics of asymmetric warfare in a single event.

Iran does not need to overwhelm the defence system. It needs one missile to reach one target. The defender has to intercept everything. The attacker has to succeed once. A ballistic missile costs Iran a fraction of what the radar costs. Even at the most generous estimate of Iranian missile production costs, the exchange ratio is hundreds to one in the attacker’s favour.

Now connect this to the insurance mechanism.

I have written all day that the B-2 and B-52 campaigns are destroying Iran’s conventional military but not its ability to threaten asymmetric targets. This is the proof. The most heavily defended air base in the Middle East, housing CENTCOM’s forward headquarters, protected by Patriot batteries and the most advanced interception systems the US deploys, just lost its primary early warning radar to a single ballistic missile that evaded every layer.

If the US military cannot protect a $1.1 billion radar inside its own most fortified base, on what basis does any reinsurer model that a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz is protectable by Navy escorts?

The DFC insurance backstop announced hours ago promised Navy escorts would secure Gulf shipping. The AN/FPS-132 strike demonstrates that even the most sophisticated US defensive systems cannot guarantee protection against Iranian ballistic missiles in a saturation attack environment.

One missile. One radar. $1.1 billion. And a defence architecture that just revealed its fundamental constraint: perfection is required, and perfection is impossible.

The escorts cannot guarantee what the base defences could not. The insurance market already knew this. Now the satellite imagery proves it.

open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Satellite image Image
Read 2 tweets