Recent well liked threads

Jan 30
HOW TO RENEW NIGERIAN PASSPORT USING SELF ENROLMENT

If you’re thinking of renewing your Nigerian passport, self enrolment makes the process way easier. Saves you the stress of travelling to London, no agent. no long stress. Here’s how it works ⬇️
First, go to the official NIS passport portal:



Create an account.
Select Apply for Renew/Re-issue.
Input your NIN and DOB

This should bring up your details with gender and marital status passportintl.immigration.gov.ngImage
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You then input ur current passport number (the one being renewed) and the DOB on it

These data needs to match with that on your NIN record. Double check spelling as corrections later will lead to extra stress. Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 8
What If Iran Already Has the Bomb?

Recently, I wrote that treating Iran as an ambiguous threshold power carries huge risks as it could accelerate an attack on the country and make it easier for the U.S. to rally allies. But… what if Iran already possesses a nuclear weapon?

That would completely upend the Middle East board, starting with Saudi launching its own program, as it has repeatedly said it would do if Iran ever developed a nuclear weapon.

But what are the actual odds that Iran already has a bomb? Contrary to what many people think, the chances are quite high.

Key points in this assessment:

1. Time of Development and Program History

Iran’s nuclear program began in the 1950s but took on a military dimension in the 1980s–2000s through the AMAD project. U.S. intelligence assessed a formal suspension in 2003, yet in the two decades since, Iran has had more than enough time to make steady investments, longer than it took Pakistan (10–15 years).

After the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran sharply accelerated its efforts, and by 2026 it has the capability to produce a weapon in days or weeks.

2. Current Technology and Capabilities

Uranium Enrichment:
Enrichment to 60% far exceeds any civilian need (3–5% for power reactors). The step to 90% (weapons-grade) is quick, days or weeks for fissile material. The 440 kg stockpile at 60% in 2024–2025 could yield up to 10 bombs if further enriched. The 2025 U.S./Israeli strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan mostly hit surface facilities that have since been rapidly rebuilt, and there are reports that enrichment toward 90% has continued at a new site.

Centrifuges and Infrastructure:
Iran operates thousands of advanced centrifuges (IR-6, IR-9) in hardened underground bunkers. Recent satellite imagery shows renewed activity at these locations.

Technical Expertise:
Mastery of critical technologies such as implosion design. Breakout time has fallen to weeks by 2024–2026. The program may also be receiving external assistance.

3. Opacity and Reduced Oversight

Since 2021, Iran has restricted IAEA inspections, removing cameras and creating major monitoring gaps. In 2025, the IAEA declared Iran non-compliant. This opacity is clearly tied to covert activities, especially after the recent attacks.

4. Geopolitical Context and Motivations

Heightened tensions with the U.S. and Israel strongly incentivize nuclear deterrence. The 2026 talks in Oman remain focused on the nuclear issue, yet Iran obviously refuses to give up enrichment, using it as leverage while always stressing sovereignty.

The reality is that Iran sits at the nuclear threshold, with weaponization depending only on a political decision, one that may already have been made.

5. Dual-Capable Missile Production

Iran has built significant indigenous capacity to produce dual-capable ballistic missiles (able to carry conventional or nuclear warheads), prioritizing precision in its most modern systems. These include medium-range missiles such as Emad, Fattah, Kheibar Shekan, Khorramshahr-4, Sejjil, and several earlier-generation models that remain dual-capable.

I would say today that the chances of preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon are close to zero. They may already have the bomb, and even if they don’t, I see no viable way to destroy the program, as was attempted last year.

Only a full-scale ground invasion and occupation could end it, but I don’t see any force capable of carrying out that operation right now.

If Iran possessed nuclear weapons, would it announce them in order to deter an attack? This is a sensitive issue. Announcing possession would likely mean they have only one or two warheads. In the worst case, such an announcement could trigger a preemptive Israeli nuclear strike to prevent Iran from producing additional warheads, or would it instead serve as an effective deterrent?

I don’t believe Israel would go that far, but the Middle East would certainly enter a period of severe instabilityImage
Read 2 tweets
Apr 18
It's a Harvard Case study waiting to be written.

they'll teach figma in b-schools the same way they teach Blackberry Image
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the most painful part of figma's fall? nobody did anything wrong

AI just showed up 😭
Read 2 tweets
May 10
10 things I hate about you
#keonhoon au Image
‼️‼️‼️‼️‼️ Image
Read 81 tweets
May 10
En #PiazzaSanMarco, rodeado de siglos de arquitectura veneciana, hay un pequeño espacio que mucha gente pasa por alto.
Pero, el #NegozioOlivetti de #Scarpa es probablemente una de las intervenciones arquitectónicas más sofisticadas del siglo XX. Va hilo de lo que vi y fotografié Image
Lo interesante es que esto no era un museo ni un palacio.
Era literalmente una tienda para vender máquinas de escribir Olivetti.
Porque hubo una época en la que las empresas italianas creían que vender tecnología también implicaba invertir en arquitectura excepcional. Image
En 1957, #Olivetti encargó el proyecto a #CarloScarpa.
La idea de #AdrianoOlivetti era clara: si iban a tener un #showroom en #Venecia, tenía que ser algo más que una tienda. Tenía que representar la identidad cultural e intelectual de la empresa. Image
Read 20 tweets
May 11
🧵Who are the anti-Hamas militias in Gaza?

In recent weeks, these groups expanded beyond their usual areas, clashing with Hamas, entering new zones, and interacting openly with locals.

This thread aims to explain who they are, where they operate, and who leads them. Image
Popular Army - Northern Forces.

Established in September of 2025, by Ashraf al-Mansi. It is Headquartered at the Izbat Beit Hanoun Elementary School for Boys, on Al Awda Street.

Location: 31.547334, 34.518417
8G3PGGW9+W9 North Gaza Governorate, Gaza Logo of the Popular Army - Northern Forces
Ashraf al Mansi
Satellite photo of the Izbat Beit Hanoun Elemntary School for boys, courtesy of @GEOIMINT
Since April, videos posted by the Northern Army, with some being geolocated by @Arabosint show them operating beyond the yellow line in Atatra/Beit Lahia, mingling with locals, while distributing material/financial aid to them.

More Info:
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Read 18 tweets
May 11
In the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 occupied territories, Russia 🇷🇺 has developed significant military linked infrastructure projects.

New highways, water pipes, railways, power lines, military bases, building reconstruction can be seen in multiple places in Ukraine.

🧵THREAD🧵1/18 ⬇️ Image
West of Taganrog, the Rostov-Mariupol road has been slightly expanded, for both civilian and military purpose.

This snapshot is inside Russia.
After the border with Ukraine, the same road is again much larger. There is even a new parking lot.

This road is in fact the new Russia-Crimea northern road (the southern road is going through Kerch bridge).
Read 18 tweets
May 11
I'm 27.

I spent 10+ years obsessing over self-improvement.

Here's what I learned in 5min so you can save 1,000+ hours:

1. Your life is 100% your responsibility. Nobody will save you.
2. Smart people often feel dumb.
Dumb people often feel smart.

3. The older I get, the more I realize that success comes from repeating the boring basics every day.
4. You'll beat 90% of people if you just show up every day.

5. Don't waste time on alcohol, partying, and clubbing.
Read 29 tweets
May 11
Per @dealbook, we at @The_Budget_Lab have a "bombshell" report out on the revenue potential of closing the carried interest loophole.

Here's the report:

The existence of carried interest is *WILD* -- $ fund managers get lower tax rates than wage-earners budgetlab.yale.edu/research/refin…Image
The argument *against* closing the loophole has essentially been about revenue. Because it doesn't raise much, energy was better spent on other tax reform projects.

That's always seemed surprising, since the fund managers who get this preferential tax treatment are...well-off.
Also, more carry in the economy these days

So we looked into this, in part relying on great work by Michael Love using the K-1 (shoutout, information returns, sunlight is an important disinfectant!)

Turns out addressing carried raises way more than previously thought Image
Read 7 tweets
May 11
There is a certain tragedy to Keir Starmer, for all of his many political deficits, his wooden demeanour, the inability to formulate a vision, the seeming lack of genuine conviction in his own policies, the countless u-turns, he seems fundamentally to be a man of integrity. The
almost pathological hatred of Starmer carries with it an element of irrationality. He did not chance the country on his personal ego like Cameron, produce an endless series of scandals and lies like Johnson, or almost crash the economy due to his zealous conviction like Truss.
Starmer’s inability to translate Labour’s landslide at the election into policy wins and popular support reveals more about structural political dynamics than his individual character. Western democracies like the UK, Germany and France are becoming virtually ungovernable due to
Read 7 tweets
May 11
Looks like MTG @mtgreenee has been planning her escape from America for a while. In 2024, I reported how a source told me she bought a $5 million home in Costa Rica.

Source tells me MTG just sold her home in Rome, Georgia and moved to Costa Rica with @brianglenntv.

All that insider trading sure paid off.

She just posted this photo of her new home in Costa Rica on Instagram.

She abandoned her constituents and fled the country.Image
I can confirm that Marjorie Traitor Greene @mtgreenee sold her Rome, George home on 10.64 acres of land for $1.1 million dollars on March 19th, 2026. She is now living in a $5 million home in Costa Rica with Brian Glenn. @brianglenntv

This is proof she was always planning to leave Congress. She just used President Trump as a scapegoat for abandoning her constituents and fleeing the country.

In 2024 I reported the purchase of her Costa Rican mansion.

Does this mean she’s now a foreigner? LolImage
Read 2 tweets
May 11
1/
The @nytimes just published one of the most serious sets of allegations imaginable against Israel – claims of systematic sexual violence, including a bizarre story about carrots and trained rape dogs. We checked the sources.

What we found is journalistic malpractice. 🧵 Image
2/
First, Sami al‑Sai, introduced by @NickKristof as a “freelance journalist.” What the NYT doesn’t tell you: al‑Sai has a long record of celebrating terrorists on social media.

Kristof repeats gruesome details of “vomit, blood and broken teeth” and lets al‑Sai claim he was arrested to pressure him into becoming an informant. In reality, al‑Sai had already been jailed in 2016 for incitement – and his 2024 arrest was again for incitement.

His own Facebook explains why.Image
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3/
On 23 March 2023 al‑Sai posted about Amir Abu Khadija, calling him “our martyred prince.”
Abu Khadija wasn’t some random victim. He was the founder and leader of the Tulkarm Battalion – a terrorist group behind multiple deadly attacks, including:
🔴30 May 2023 – Israeli civilian murdered near Hermesh
🔴19 Oct 2023 – 1 IDF officer killed, 10 wounded
🔴23 Mar 2024 – 4 Israeli soldiers killed
🔴1 Jul 2024 – 1 soldier killed, another severely injured

In December 2023 – just two months before his arrest – al‑Sai posted videos and photos celebrating armed fighters in Nur Shams camp.

16 Dec – “Moons of Nur Shams camp,” showing terrorists in tactical gear

18 Dec – cheering captured Israeli military equipment
The very next day, 17 Dec, Israeli forces raided Nur Shams, killing five terrorists. Al‑Sai had close access to the gunmen Israel was targeting. NYT’s due diligence on his background? Zero.Image
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Read 10 tweets
May 11
Last week, the United States refused to participate in the UN’s review of the Global Compact on Migration.

The United States objects to the Global Compact on Migration and UN efforts to facilitate replacement migration to the United States and our Western allies.
UN agencies systematically facilitated mass migration into America and Europe, even as citizens of these nations called for restrictions on migration.

Now the Global Compact’s latest report urges nations to expand migration pathways and pursue “regularization” of migrants.
UN agencies – working with the NGOs they fund – established a migration corridor through Central America and to the U.S. border.

As the American people suffered under an unprecedented wave of mass migration, the UN was on the ground pipelining migrants to our southern border.
Read 8 tweets