Markets are all about patterns and tendencies that have an edge. Here are a few I have observed and learned over the years.
A Thread.
Identify the Sector(s) of this cycle. Typically mid caps which are enjoying an earnings tailwind due to the external environment and you have a 3 year visibility into a 25% or higher eps growth. Will seem expensive throughout the cycle but will make big money.
Breakout post a genuine earnings surprise. Popularly called PEAD. Structural pattern. Works like a charm at all points of any cycle.
OriginTrail’s @BranaRakic dropped one of the biggest AI infrastructure updates last week.
It barely made a noise.
But that's because some don’t understand what it means.
So here — I have broken it all down.
If you use AI agents for personal projects, build platforms for agentic AI, or run enterprise workflows in autonomous environments — this thread is for you 🧵
First, I want you to picture this:
You've set up some AI agents to help with a project.
They do a great job in that session.
You come back the next day — and they remember nothing.
So, you're back to briefing them from scratch. Can you imagine how annoying that is?
Now, let's look at even more serious scenario...👇
You're a solo developer.
→ You've got a Claude agent cleaning up your codebase and a GPT agent running tests.
→ Claude finishes refactoring a module. Documents everything. Passes a note to GPT.
→ But the GPT agent doesn't fully get the context. So, it runs the same tests Claude already flagged 😕
You wait two hours for it to finish. Your time get waisted.
And if takes longer, you face the fate of starting afresh the next day 🤷♂️
A Mumbai-based portfolio manager who's seen 4 market crashes says:
80% of Indian investors lose money because of a single morning mistake, and almost everyone makes it.
Thread 🧵
1/ He observed this pattern across Harshad Mehta, dot-com, 2008, and COVID.
Investors who look smart on paper:
- Good salary, IT or finance job
- No EMIs, no credit card debt
- Read Morgan Housel, follow finance YouTubers
- SIPs running on autopilot
Yet they still end up with:
- Blown-up portfolios in their 30s–40s
- One bad F&O year that wipes out 5 good ones
- A demat full of Yes Bank, Vodafone Idea, Suzlon… bought "for the long term"
2/ The usual suspects were investigated
- Wrong stock picks
- Bad market timing
- Too much leverage
- Greed in small caps
None of them fully explained it.
The real problem wasn't what they were buying.
It was what they did the moment the alarm rang at 7 AM.
🚨 AMERICANS NEED TO UNDERSTAND WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.
Most people are still viewing President Trump’s foreign policy through the old post-WW2 lens. That lens is obsolete. What P Trump is attempting is not a minor policy adjustment. It is a complete restructuring of the global economic and geopolitical order.
Read that again.
For 80 years, America operated under a “globalist” framework:
• America paid the bills
• America defended everyone
• America opened its markets
• America carried NATO
• America protected shipping lanes
• America subsidized allies
• America tolerated trade imbalances
• America exported democracy while factories disappeared and debt exploded at home
That system enriched multinational corporations, global institutions, foreign economies, and permanent bureaucracies.
But millions of Americans watched:
- manufacturing collapse
- wages stagnate
- communities hollow out
- endless wars drain trillions
- China rise into a superpower using America's own economic system against itself
President Trump is trying to replace that model with something entirely different:
👉 A transactional, America First economic coalition built around ENERGY, TRADE, SECURITY, MANUFACTURING, and STRATEGIC DEALS.
That Truth Social post about the Abraham Accords wasn’t just another statement. It was a blueprint.
If this succeeds, you are looking at the construction of a massive economic/security network that could include:
- The United States
- Saudi Arabia
- UAE
- Qatar
- Egypt
- Jordan
- Israel
- Pakistan
- Türkiye
- India
- parts of Latin America
- strategic Indo-Pacific partners
- and critically, a normalization framework with BOTH China and Russia where competition still exists, but catastrophic conflict is avoided through economic leverage, negotiated spheres of influence, energy coordination, and transactional diplomacy
This is one of the most misunderstood parts of President Trump’s geopolitical strategy.
Many Americans still think in Cold War terms:
America vs Russia.
America vs China.
Permanent hostility.
Permanent escalation.
But President Trump’s approach is far more transactional and realist.
Instead of trying to ideologically remake the world, the strategy appears focused on:
- preventing direct great-power war
- reducing the chance of nuclear escalation
- using trade leverage instead of permanent military occupation
- creating economic interdependence where possible
- forcing burden-sharing among allies
- and positioning America as the central negotiating power between rival blocs
That does NOT mean “surrendering” to China or Russia.
It means recognizing a reality many in Washington refused to accept for decades:
China is already an economic superpower.
Russia remains a military and energy superpower.
The question is no longer whether they exist as major powers.
The question is whether America can position itself at the center of a new balance of power that benefits Americans instead of endlessly draining American wealth trying to maintain a fading unipolar system.
This is why you are seeing:
• negotiations instead of immediate escalation
• energy diplomacy
• tariff wars instead of troop surges
• pressure campaigns tied to trade access
• selective partnerships instead of blind alliances
• attempts to split rival coalitions apart through deals
President Trump is essentially trying to create overlapping economic zones where America is no longer carrying the world for free - but instead sits at the center of the world’s most powerful deal-making network.
Combined economic power? Potentially $65-75+ TRILLION in GDP. Over HALF the global economy.
Think about what that means.
This is about:
✅ energy dominance
✅ shipping lanes
✅ critical minerals
✅ AI infrastructure
✅ manufacturing chains
✅ food security
✅ military positioning
✅ trade corridors
✅ investment flows
✅ currency leverage
✅ stabilizing relations between major powers where possible
✅ isolating hostile behavior through leverage instead of endless occupation wars
And younger Americans especially need to understand this part:
THIS DIRECTLY IMPACTS YOUR FUTURE.
If America remains trapped in the old system:
- debt keeps exploding
- jobs continue leaving
- housing becomes less affordable
- wages get crushed by global competition
- endless foreign entanglements continue
- America slowly declines like other aging empires
But if America successfully repositions itself at the center of a new energy/manufacturing/trade coalition:
- industrial jobs return
- energy prices stabilize
- strategic industries reshoring accelerates
- infrastructure investment increases
- supply chains become more secure
- America regains leverage instead of bleeding leverage
This is why you see such aggressive pushes around:
• tariffs
• domestic manufacturing
• energy independence
• critical minerals
• Middle East normalization
• India relations
• securing trade routes
• reducing dependency on hostile supply chains
• stabilizing great-power relations through leverage and economic pressure instead of permanent military escalation
This is not random.
This is an attempt to build a new geopolitical architecture for the next 50 years.
And whether people like President Trump or hate him personally is becoming irrelevant to the scale of what is unfolding.
The Abraham Accords themselves are historic because they shift the Middle East from perpetual religious/geopolitical conflict toward economic interdependence.
Peace through prosperity.
Trade instead of proxy wars.
Economic incentives instead of permanent instability.
And if normalization frameworks eventually extend outward toward Russia and even portions of China’s economic system, you could be looking at the emergence of the largest interconnected economic balancing structure in modern history.
Not a utopia.
Not permanent peace.
Not the end of competition.
But a system where economic incentives and strategic leverage become more powerful than endless military occupations and ideological crusades.
The old order was based on permanent management of conflict.
This new model attempts to monetize stability.
Will it fully work? Nobody knows yet. There are enormous risks, contradictions, and power struggles involved. Traditional allies are nervous. Global institutions hate it. Rival powers are cautious. Some countries will resist. Others will attempt to manipulate it.
But Americans should at least understand the scale of the play being attempted here.
This is not “normal politics.”
This is a potential civilizational realignment.
And if younger Americans do not start paying attention to economics, geopolitics, energy, trade, manufacturing, and global power shifts now - they are going to inherit a world they do not understand.
Read. Research. Think critically.
And SHARE this so more Americans understand what may be unfolding in real time.
And the very reason why I keep showing you this ebook Foreign Policy Is Survival is so that you can understand the fundamentals. Fundamentals don't change.
So long as you understand how the world works in simple terms, you can easily connect the dots on what is happening under President Trump's leadership.
You may have seen that I intentionally left out Canada and Europe. If you can recall since the start of the tarrrif wars up until the conflict with Iran, President Trump gave them the opportunity to renegotiate on America's terms.
Unfortunately, they couldn't go against their own system that they've built over the years so here we are.
Once the dust is settled, they will drag their feet into the fold. They have no other options. Their leverage is gradually diminishing right before their eyes.
But as we all know, the establishment is entrenched all around the world. Evil will not go down without a fight.
If President Trump is successful in effectuating the necessary foundational changes with this new economic alliance, the world will ultimately move in the opposite direction and their systems will naturally be abandoned.
If you look closely at the Abraham Accords and normalization with Israel, it has proven to be a successful agreement. Look at UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, etc. Their partnership with Israel has made relationships between the said countries stable. Thereby stabilizing the regions around them. Iran was the major destabilizing factor in this whole thing. Now that they are being brought into the fold through military action and negotiations, whatever deals that get struck out of this situation will pave the way for a brighter future.
Of course, not everything goes to plan. There will be hiccups along the way. There will still be terrorism. But it will all be managed accordingly under the trade partnerships. Win-win for all.
La actitud de la Conselleria en la negociación con los sindicatos sigue dejando claro que lo van a poner muy muy complicado. Ahora, con una propuesta de ratios que es difícil no interpretar como una burla 😡
Van dos semanas y media ya de #HuelgaIndefinida y parece… (sigue 👇🏻)
…que la Conselleria sigue con su táctica rastrera y marrullera de dejar que todo se desgaste para ver si consigue cansar al profesorado y acabar con la huelga sin ceder apenas ni un milímetro.
Ahora bien, arriesgan mucho si piensan que esa estrategia les saldrá bien. (Sigue 👇🏻)
Primero, porque ellos también están sufriendo un desgaste considerable, por mucho que estén utilizando, de manera también rastrera y miserable, a sus medios de comunicación afines. Y segundo, porque el profesorado tiene más maneras de protestar y presionar. (👇🏻)
🚨 BREAKING: New report by UN Watch reveals UN “experts” accepted millions of dollars from China, Russia, and Qatar before attacking the U.S., Israel, and the West.
🧵 See the report’s most striking findings:
Alena Douhan, the UN expert against Western sanctions, received $1.3 million in funding from China, Russia, and Qatar.
Her official visits — including to Tehran, Beijing, Damascus, Doha, Caracas, and Harare — were conducted exclusively to support the regimes, not their victims.
Ben Saul, the UN expert counterterrorism, received $150,000 from China then refused to issue any statements on China’s persecution of the Uyghurs, which Beijing justifies as “counterterrorism.”
In March, Saul condemned the U.S. while praising Somalia as a “responsible state.”
Clemente Rodríguez, Carlitos Tevez y el Bichi Fuertes... ¿Impuesto a las ganancias cuando el jugador es dueño de "su pase" y lo cede?
🧵1/
Cuando Clemente Rodríguez se fue de Estudiantes a Boca en 2010, quedó libre y se "vendió" a sí mismo por USD 1.900.000.
AFIP le reclamó ganancias por esa operación.
La Cámara acaba de confirmar que tenía que pagar.Pero la historia de fondo es más larga. Empieza con un abogado que invirtió en Tévez.🧵👇
2/Primero, algunos conceptos básicos:
▸ Derechos federativos: la facultad del club de inscribir al jugador en la federación. Habilitan a hacerlo competir oficialmente.
▸ Derechos económicos: el valor monetario derivado de esos derechos federativos cuando el jugador se transfiere.
3/Históricamente, los derechos económicos podían fraccionarse.
Terceros — empresarios, fondos, abogados, hasta familiares de jugadores(y dirigentes... sssshhhh!) — compraban porcentajes.
Invertían hoy en un pibe prometedor → cobraban una tajada cuando lo vendían mañana en Europa.
The op-ed places sole responsibility for the failure of a two-state solution on Israel without addressing Palestinian leadership failures such as support for deadly terrorist attacks against Israel and corruption. He also fails to mention that Israel has been willing to trade land for peace, but Palestinian leaders have rejected statehood offers. (2/5)
The piece lacks any mention of how our alliance with Israel advances U.S. interests. Israel is a major intelligence, counterterrorism, technological, and regional security partner in a region backed by Iran and its terrorist proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. (3/5)
#SupremeCourt to hear today pleas challenging constitutional validity of Election Commissioners Act 2023 dropping Chief Justice of India from panel appointing Election Commissioners
#CJI #electioncommissioners
Matter taken up
Bench: Justice Dipankar Datta and Justice Satish Chandra Sharma
SG: that matter be taken up after vacation
#CJI #electioncommissioners
Counsel: i have filed a written submission
SC: write now we are deciding to hear it or take it up after vacation
One thing that won't get enough attention about John Cornyn's loss to Ken Paxton is that--no matter the result in November--Texas Republicans just gave up seniority in the Senate, one of the most prized currencies in federal politics.
Let me explain what I mean...
(thread)
[Political nerds, keep scrolling. This isn't for you.]
When senators (and House members) get to D.C. for a new congressional session, both parties have to organize their power structure: rules, leadership posts, committee assignments, etc.
New members of the House and Senate have the least power and older members have the most power.
This is called "seniority" and it works pretty much exactly how you'd expect. If you've been here longer than the other person, you get more privileges.
2/ Last year, Elon Musk danced on stage with a chainsaw crowing over cutting bureaucracy. In reality, Elon Musk's DOGE fired health workers and researchers. Gutted labs and contact tracing. Chaos and disease are filling the void left behind. tinyurl.com/45ayvmvy
3/ Health workers at the epicenter of the current Ebola outbreak were forced to scale back their surveillance and sanitation measures following Trump’s withdrawal from the WHO and 68% funding cut to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. tinyurl.com/4rdjyf48
This is the time of year when a lot of investment firms welcome interns. While our work is geared toward institutional investors, a lot of it can be useful for learning about markets and the investment process. Here are a handful of reports and how they can guide interns:
1/ On markets and market (in)efficiency, "Who Is on the Other Side?" provides a basis for thinking about markets and a taxonomy of repeating inefficiencies: morganstanley.com/im/publication…
2/On valuation, "Valuation Multiples" grounds multiples such as P/E and EV/EBITDA to economic drivers: morganstanley.com/im/publication…
There are blessings, doors, and opportunities that prayer alone will not bring unless God connects you to the right people. God uses men to bless men. Some helpers will pray for you, some will speak for you, some will open doors for you, and some will carry you when you are weak. This 30-day prayer journey is for everyone believing God for divine connections, favor, open doors, restoration, and kingdom relationships. May God connect you to the right people for your next season and separate you from every relationship assigned to delay your destiny.
Day 1
Father, in the name of Jesus, connect me to the right people You have ordained for my destiny. Let me not miss divine relationships through ignorance, fear, pride, or delay. Bring into my life men and women who will help me become everything You created me to be.
Day 2
Lord, raise people who will speak for me in places I cannot reach by myself. Let my name be mentioned in rooms of opportunities, favor, business, ministry, and greatness. Cause influential people to remember me for good.