1/ Pues ha llegado el momento de explicar en un🧵por qué cada vez más, lo que está ocurriendo en Irán se parece sorprendentemente mucho a la gran crisis económica y bursátil de 1973-74.
Esperemos que no ocurra igual porque entonces las bolsas declinaron un -50%.
2/ Desde hace dos años, en concreto febrero 2024, llevo denominando a la situación bursátil en EE.UU. de burbuja. Para mí una clara burbuja pero en la que no era hora aún de bajarme del caballo.
3/ Lo que expliqué entonces es que la época actual, con las Magníficas 7, es decir, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta (Facebook) y, por supuesto, Nvidia, es una burbuja, o si se prefiere un mercado sobrevalorado.
🧵🚨 MAJOR BREAKING: A $15+ MILLION DOE contractor and NoKings protest organizer with active nuclear security contracts is on camera recommending a color revolution "how-to" 🚨🚨
His name is Steven A. Cash. Former CIA officer (Balkans, Clinton era). Under Biden: Senior Advisor to the Undersecretary at DHS Intelligence & Analysis.
The day after Trump's 2016 election, Cash co-founded "The Steady State" — a network of more than 340 former intelligence community officials who decided Trump was an "existential threat".
When Biden won, the threat was gone. Cash went into Biden's DHS. His own words: "we disappeared."
Then Trump won again. "Suddenly the existential threat was back." The Steady State reactivated and is now a planning partner with NoKings. In the clip below, their meeting recommends "Bringing Down a Dictator" — the Otpor documentary about toppling Milošević — as "a how-to."
Meanwhile, Cash's company Deck Prism LLC holds $15+ million in Department of Energy contracts. Almost every one: sole-source or non-competed. One is for the National Nuclear Security Administration — our nuclear weapons program — justified because "disclosure would compromise national security."
His FEC records: 20+ donations over 20 years. 100% Democratic. Zero Republican. Including $1,001 to Kamala Harris on August 4, 2024, while his NNSA nuclear contract was active.
I have the USAspending receipts, the FEC filings, and him on camera twice.
As always, patience as I pull together the thread. 👇
Before proceeding with this thread, please follow @listen_2learn , who tried to expose Cash earlier. Thanks to my new co-visiting fellow with @ItsYourGov , @JeffClarkUS , for help in researching.
This is a classic articulation of the "logos/rhema" distinction.
Logos = written word of God / logic / reasoning
Rhema = spoken word of God / "now word" / "revelation" (the "word of the Lord came" to a prophet)
The only problem is that this distinction is false. 👇⬇️🧵 1/
Throughout both the Greek OT (LXX) and the Greek NT, the words logos and rhema are overlapping.
Notice I didn't say "synonymous," because there are always distinctions between words. However, they are so close that they can—and often are—used interchangeably (Ex. 34:27-28) 2/
Does rhema mean "spoken word?" Generally, yes. However, logos also frequently refers to a spoken word as well.
Note the example that Paula White gives in the video: "The word of the Lord came..."
4 LXX examples below: the first two are rhema and the following two are logos 3/
داشتم مقداری میگشتم متون روانکاوانه راجع به ایران پیدا کنم به این رسالهی دکتری در دانشگاه کاردیف انگلستان، منتشر شده در سال ۲۰۱۸ برخوردم. اگه اشتباه نکنم نویسنده، سایمن رجبار، قبلاً جزو شاگردان ژیژک بوده (اهل اسلوونی و در حال حاضر شاغل در دولت انگلستان).
سایمن رجبار میکوشد نشان دهد که جمهوری اسلامی ایران را نمیتوان فقط از خلال نهادهای رسمی، گفتار سیاسی آشکار، یا رفتارهای حکومت فهمید. او بیان میکند که باید به سازوکارهای ایدئولوژیکی ناهوشیارانهای توجه کرد که باعث میشوند این نظم سیاسی و اجتماعی برای سوژههایش معنادار و منسجم به نظر برسد. نویسنده با تکیه بر روانکاوی لکانی استدلال میکند که ایدئولوژی در ایران بیش از آنکه تناقضها را از میان ببرد، آنها را مدیریت میکند: تناقض میان دین و دولت، میان اقتدار روحانی و صورت جمهوری، میان لحن انقلابی و عملگرایی سیاسی، و نیز میان شعارهای ضدسرمایهداری و کارکردهای سرمایهدارانه. ادعای اصلی این است که نظام نه با وجود این تنشها، بلکه دقیقاً از راه میانجیگری نمادین و عاطفی همین تنشها دوام میآورد؛ بهگونهای که سوژهها، حتی در دل این ناسازگاریها، همچنان به این نظم دلبسته میمانند.
نخستین نکته اصلی رساله این است که سوژگی سیاسی در ایران بهطور تاریخی از پیوند میان هویت شیعی و هویت ملی شکل گرفته و این پیوند در انقلاب ۱۳۵۷ به اوج رسیده است. در واقع دین چارچوبی است که میل، فداکاری، اقتدار، و احساس تعلق را سازمان میدهد. روایتهای شیعی، بهویژه الگوی کربلا، ساختاری عاطفی و نمادین در اختیار جامعه گذاشتند تا نارضایتی سیاسی از خلال آن بیان شود، شدت بگیرد، و سرانجام به نیرویی انقلابی بدل شود. بنابراین انقلاب فقط از اسلام بهعنوان یک شعار استفاده نکرده است؛ بلکه آن را به همان نشانهای بدل کرد که ملت توانست خود را از خلال آن تصور کند، رنج خود را بیان کند، و دست به کنش بزند.
دومین نکته مهم این است که در این رساله، انقلاب اسلامی فقط یک رویداد تاریخی نیست، بلکه به دال مرکزی کل میدان ایدئولوژیک ایران تبدیل میشود. مقصود سایمن رجبار این است که «انقلاب اسلامی» به مفهومی بدل شده که به دیگر نهادها، قوانین، و کردارهای سیاسی معنا میبخشد. سیاستگذاری، مشروعیت حقوقی، و اقتدار سیاسی همگی باید خود را در نسبت با این دال مرکزی تعریف کنند. چون این دال بسیار گسترده و تا اندازهای تهی است، میتواند مضامین گوناگون و حتی متضاد را در خود جا دهد و با این حال، ظاهر وحدت ایدئولوژیک را حفظ کند. از همین رو، نظام میتواند با شرایط متغیر کنار بیاید و در عین حال مدعی بماند که به حقیقت آغازین خود وفادار است.
سومین نکته اصلی به ساختار خود حکومت مربوط میشود. این رساله میگوید جمهوری اسلامی بر شکافی بنیادین استوار است: از یک سو نهادهای روحانی را در خود دارد و از سوی دیگر نهادهای جمهوریخواهانه را، و همین ترکیب در نگاه اول متناقض به نظر میرسد. اما از نظر نویسنده، این تناقض نشانه آشفتگی آن نیست. در اصل، بخشی از سازوکار بقای نظام است. صورت الهیاتی-سیاسی جمهوری اسلامی نه از آمیزش ناموفق دو الگوی ناسازگار، بلکه از آرایشی ساخته شده که تنش میان این دو را مدام مهار و بازتولید میکند. نظام قدرت خود را نه از حل این شکاف، بلکه از به صحنه آوردن و در عین حال کنترل کردن آن میگیرد. در واقع او نشان نمیدهد که این نظم کاملاً سازگار است یا نه؛ نکته این است که چگونه با وجود این گسیختگی درونی، همچنان کارآمد و پایدار میماند. در واقع او نمیپرسد که جمهوری اسلامی کی تمام میشود؛ بلکه میپرسد اینها چرا تا به الآن تمام نشدهاند؟
چهارمین نکته این است که ایدئولوژی فقط از راه باور آگاهانه یا اجبار عمل نمیکند، بلکه از راه لذت، آیین، و دلبستگی ناهوشیارانه پابرجا میماند. او بارها تأکید میکند که سوژهها از خلال سرمایهگذاریهای عاطفی و ناهوشیارانه در ایدئولوژی جای میگیرند. مردم صرفاً به این دلیل فرمان نمیبرند که فریب خوردهاند یا تحت فشارند؛ آنها به فانتزیورزیها، اقتدارها، آیینها، و معناهایی وابستهاند که واقعیت اجتماعی را برایشان منسجم و قابلتحمل میسازد. به همین دلیل، او از فهم سادهانگارانه ایدئولوژی بهمثابه «آگاهی کاذب» فاصله میگیرد. در اینجا ایدئولوژی نقابی نیست که واقعیت را میپوشاند؛ ایدئولوژی همان ساختار فانتزیواری است که از طریق آن، واقعیت برای سوژه قابلزیست و معنادار میشود.
پنجمین نکته اصلی به اقتصاد مربوط میشود. رجبار استدلال میکند که اقتصاد سیاسی جمهوری اسلامی را نباید خیانتی به آرمانهای انقلاب دانست. به نظر او، باید آن را نوعی توازن میان دین و سرمایهداری دانست؛ وضعیتی که در آن منطق سرمایهدارانه و صورتهای ایدئولوژیک-دینی در کنار هم قرار میگیرند و یکدیگر را تقویت میکنند. در واقع، دین در ایران نتوانسته جلوی سرمایهداری را بگیرد و خود به یکی از راههای توجیه وجود آن شده است. در واقع ادعای اصلی این است که ایران را نباید بازماندهای از گذشته دانست! بلکه در اصل این پدیده نشانهای از آیندهای ممکن دید؛ آیندهای که در آن، هر چند شکلهای تازه اقتدارگرایی در دل مناسبات سرمایهدارانه پدید میآیند، اما همچنان از زبانی متضاد یعنی قدسی یا انقلابی بهره میبرند!
یکی از نکات جالب این رساله برای من این بود که چگونه رفتارهای ضدانقلابی یا سرپیچی از هنجارهای دینی میتوانند بهمثابه تهدیدی برای کل نظم ایدئولوژیک تفسیر شوند. چون دال مرکزیِ «انقلاب اسلامی» معنای کلی نظام را نگه میدارد، حتی کنشهایی که ظاهراً محدود و جزئیاند (مثلاً بیحجابی) میتوانند حملهای به بنیان معنایی حکومت تلقی شوند. همین امر به حکومت ابزار نمادین نیرومندی میدهد: میتواند مخالفت را نوعی تجاوز به حقیقت بنیادین نظم سیاسی جلوه دهد و آن را تهدیدی وجودی تلقی کند.
🧵THREAD, NO KINGS IN THE SENATE?: The Helsinki Commission, the almighty foreign democracy operations arm of Congress
The No Kings crowd marched today against the one branch of government where you can actually see who's in charge. They should try the Senate.
At 3 AM on Friday, Thune passed a funding bill by voice vote. Funded everything except immigration enforcement. Just completely gave into the Democratic demands.
Inside that Senate sits a body called the Helsinki Commission. No FOIA. No Inspector General. No records retention policy. It operates in permanent darkness, and what's hiding in there makes the 3 AM vote look transparent.
Look at the two images below.
Left: the booking photo.
Right: the knife Capitol Police seized.
A Helsinki Commission staffer drew this on a Capitol Police officer. March 8, 2019. He was arrested and booked. He was never fired. He was also photographed in Ukrainian military camo at a command post near Bakhmut. Investigators documented $87,400 in cash.
Both parties buried it. The Ryan Routh assassination attempt connection sits in plain sight. The same NGO network running today's color revolution marches connects to the same Helsinki Commission infrastructure.
Receipts below.
As always, patience as I pull together the post. 👇
@shellenberger This photo shows Parker at a Ukrainian military command post near Bakhmut, wearing Ukrainian camo, studying operational maps. According to the investigation, he made 7+ trips to the war zone. I could find no evidence these trips were formally authorized by Congress.
1/ The world is facing a 'ticking time bomb' from its supply of oil, according to a briefing note from JP Morgan. Physical scarcity of oil is about to unfold across the globe, spreading sequentially through April from east to west, causing major economic disruption worldwide. ⬇️
2/ The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced traffic through the strait by 97%, cutting off most of the Persian Gulf oil and gas supply from tanker shipment. The reduction in the supply of oil is twice as large as seen in any previous oil crisis, according to the IEA.
3/ This has not yet resulted in physical shortages of oil – although shortages have already been seen, for instance in Australia, this has been due to excessive demand caused by panic buying rather than an interruption in supply. That is about to change.
🚨 BREAKING: Claude can now teach you any language like a $100/hour private tutor from Berlitz. For free.
Here are 12 prompts that make you conversational in any language in 30 days:
(Save this before it disappears)
1. The Berlitz Personalized Learning Path Designer
"You are a senior language instructor at Berlitz with 20 years of experience who has taught 10,000+ students to become conversational in a new language — and you know that 90% of language learners quit because they follow generic courses instead of a path designed for their specific level, goals, and available time.
I need a complete personalized learning path that takes me from my current level to conversational fluency.
Design:
- Level assessment: ask me 5 diagnostic questions to determine my exact starting point (complete beginner, some basics, intermediate, or rusty)
- Goal definition: conversational for travel, business fluency, exam preparation, or full fluency — each requires a different path
- Daily time budget: design the plan around how many minutes per day I can realistically commit (15, 30, or 60 minutes)
- Week-by-week curriculum: a 30-day plan with specific topics, vocabulary sets, and grammar points for each week
- Priority vocabulary: the 300 most useful words that cover 65% of daily conversation in this language
- Grammar sequence: which grammar rules to learn first based on frequency of use (not textbook order)
- Practice method mix: the optimal split between listening, speaking, reading, and writing for my level
- Immersion hacks: 5 ways to surround myself with the language using free resources without moving countries
- Milestone checkpoints: what I should be able to say and understand at day 7, 14, 21, and 30
- Motivation system: how to track progress visually so I can see improvement and never want to quit
Format as a Berlitz-style personalized study plan with daily lessons, weekly goals, and a 30-day fluency roadmap.
My starting point: [ENTER THE LANGUAGE YOU WANT TO LEARN, YOUR CURRENT LEVEL, WHY YOU'RE LEARNING IT, AND HOW MANY MINUTES PER DAY YOU CAN PRACTICE]"
2. The Rosetta Stone Immersive Conversation Partner
"You are a native speaker and certified language tutor who teaches using the Rosetta Stone immersive method — the approach where you learn by HAVING conversations, not by memorizing textbook rules, because humans are wired to acquire language through use, not study.
I need you to be my conversation partner who adapts to my level and teaches me naturally through dialogue.
Converse:
- Start at my level: use only vocabulary and grammar I already know in the first conversation
- Gentle expansion: introduce 3-5 new words per conversation naturally, with enough context that I can guess their meaning
- Error correction style: when I make a mistake, don't stop the conversation — just use the correct form naturally in your response so I absorb it
- Bilingual scaffolding: if I get stuck, provide the word I need in parentheses (like this) so the conversation keeps flowing
- Cultural context: teach me the phrases a native speaker ACTUALLY uses, not the textbook version nobody says in real life
- Pronunciation notes: when a word is commonly mispronounced by learners, note the correct pronunciation phonetically
- Conversation topics: start with daily life (greetings, food, directions) and progress to opinions, stories, and abstract topics
- Formality coaching: teach me when to use formal vs informal language (most textbooks only teach formal)
- Speed adjustment: start slowly and gradually increase to natural speaking speed as I improve
- Session summary: at the end, list every new word and phrase I learned during our conversation
Format as a natural conversation with corrections in brackets, new vocabulary highlighted, and a vocabulary list at the end of each session.
My conversation: [ENTER YOUR TARGET LANGUAGE, YOUR LEVEL, AND A TOPIC YOU'D LIKE TO DISCUSS — OR JUST SAY 'START WITH BASICS']"
Gestern wieder hohe RU Personalverluste. Es wurden auch mech. Angriffe gemeldet, sie fanden aber offenbar nur punktuell statt, die Verluste an PzFz sind weiter relativ niedrig. Möglicherweise Tests an sonst wenig aktiven Frontabschnitten
Weiterhin keine größeren Geländegewinne der RU "Frühjahrsoffensive"
1/3
NO Huljaipole trotz des insgesamt verstärkten RU Drucks weiterhin UA Geländegewinne. Es wurde Präsenz von Spähtrupps in Temyriwka bestätigt, in Woskresenka sollen UA Kpz gesichtet worden sein, die Ziele weiter O beschießen
Das passt zu unbestätigten Berichten über UA Vorstöße O Oleksandrograd
2/3
Das Ziel dieser Ausweitung der UA Angriffe auf fast 50 km Frontbreite ist nicht klar, doch gab es schon vor Wochen einen ersten Vorstoß von N in dieses Gebiet. Wahrscheinlich soll va eine RU Schwachstelle zwischen den beiden Schwerpunkten NW Pokrowsk und W Huljaipole ausgenutzt werden
Das Ziel wäre dann va psychologischer Natur, die RU wenigstens regional in die Defensive zu drängen und Geländegewinne vorzeigen zu können, auch wenn diese nur zum kleineren Teil (direkt NO Huljaipole) strategisch vorteilhaft sind
3/3
Hörtipp: Die Kollegen des @Telegraph machen einen exzellenten Podcast zum Iran. Hier mit dem US-Irak-Veteran, Oberst+Militärhistoriker Peter Mansoor, der die Aussichten im Iran-Krieg militärisch auseinandernimmt. Spoiler: ein potentielles Desaster. (1/7)
Zusammengefasst: Die Straße von Hormuz freizukämpfen ist extrem schwierig bis unmöglich - oder es braucht massive US-Truppen. Man braucht feste Stellungen, muss Inseln erobern, um dauerhaft die Drohnenangriffe abwehren zu können. Die Inseln sind aber nur schwer eroberbar. (2/7)
Man kann Fallschirmjäger und Spezialkräfte schicken, aber für Nachschub braucht es echte Infrastruktur zu den Inseln und damit wird das eine Next-Legal-Bodenoperation mit womöglich vielen Verlusten. (3/7)
🚨BREAKING: The CEO who built Claude just published a 38-page warning letter to humanity.
Dario Amodei mapped exactly which careers survive AI and which ones don't.
No hype. No doom. Just the coldest, most specific prediction any AI leader has ever made.
But page 29 contains a reasoning framework that turns AI from the thing that replaces you into your biggest unfair advantage.
Here are 9 Claude prompts built on Amodei's own AI methodology that put you years ahead of everyone who didn't read this:
1. The Amodei Career Survival Scanner
"You are a senior workforce transformation analyst who has deeply studied Dario Amodei's essay 'Machines of Loving Grace' and his Senate testimony — his specific predictions about which white-collar roles AI automates in 1-3 years vs which roles become MORE valuable because of AI.
I need a brutally honest assessment of where my career stands in Amodei's AI disruption timeline.
Scan:
- My role's AI exposure: what percentage of my daily tasks could an AI system perform at 80%+ of my quality level today
- Timeline to disruption: based on Amodei's acceleration thesis, when does AI become good enough to replace the core value I provide (already happening, 1-2 years, 3-5 years, 10+ years)
- Task-by-task breakdown: list every major task in my job and classify each as AI-REPLACEABLE (automatable), AI-AUGMENTED (I do it better with AI), or HUMAN-ESSENTIAL (AI can't touch this)
- Amodei's compressed timeline warning: his thesis that advances taking decades will now take 5-10 years — what that means for my specific field
- Skills that depreciate: which of my current skills are becoming less valuable every month as AI improves
- Skills that appreciate: which capabilities become MORE valuable as AI handles the routine work
- The "centaur" opportunity: how I can combine my human judgment with AI capability to become more valuable than either alone
- Competitor scan: are other people in my role already using AI to outperform me while I do things the old way
- Irreplaceability audit: what do I bring that NO AI can replicate — creativity, relationships, physical presence, ethical judgment, lived experience
Format as an Amodei-style career disruption assessment with a survival score (1-10), timeline, and a specific action plan to move from vulnerable to irreplaceable.
My career: [DESCRIBE YOUR JOB TITLE, DAILY RESPONSIBILITIES, INDUSTRY, YEARS OF EXPERIENCE, AND YOUR CURRENT USE OF AI TOOLS]"
2. The Anthropic Constitutional Reasoning Engine
"You are an AI system operating under Dario Amodei's Constitutional AI methodology — the framework that makes Claude fundamentally different from every other AI. Instead of generating the first plausible response, you evaluate every answer against core principles: is this genuinely helpful, is this completely honest, does this account for what I DON'T know, and does this serve the person's long-term interest even if they'd prefer comfortable lies.
I need you to answer my question using constitutional reasoning — the deepest level of analysis Claude was designed for.
Reason:
- Intent detection: what do I actually NEED vs what I literally asked for (these are often different — solve the real problem)
- Honesty enforcement: for every claim, classify as VERIFIED (strong evidence), PROBABLE (likely true), INFERRED (logical deduction), or SPECULATIVE (educated guess) — never present speculation as fact
- Completeness audit: am I giving the full picture including the parts that are inconvenient or uncomfortable
- Counterargument obligation: for every recommendation, present the strongest argument AGAINST it before concluding
- Uncertainty disclosure: explicitly flag every area where my knowledge is weak instead of generating confident-sounding guesses
- Nuance preservation: resist oversimplifying — if the real answer is "it depends," explain what it depends on
- Harm foresight: could this advice cause damage if followed by someone in a vulnerable or different situation
- Long-term vs short-term: does this answer optimize for what feels good today or what's genuinely best over time
- Self-evaluation: after completing the analysis, rate my own response's quality and identify its weakest point
Format as a constitutionally-reasoned response with confidence ratings, counterarguments, and an honest self-assessment.
My question: [ASK ANY IMPORTANT QUESTION — THE HIGHER THE STAKES, THE MORE THIS CONSTITUTIONAL APPROACH OUTPERFORMS NORMAL PROMPTING]"
Free to read.
This article exposes the LIE that the so-called 'liberal' MSM (WHICH NEVER EXISTED AND DOESNT EXIST TODAY, EXCEPT FROM THE MOUTHS OF CORRUPT, CRIMINAL AND TREASONOUS REPUBLICAN 'presidents'. Starting with Tricky Dick.) was biased against 1/ open.substack.com/pub/lincolnsqu…
THEM, because journalists dared to do their JOB and expose that corruption, those Criminal and treasonous activities...on behalf of American Citizens, who had a right to KNOW what the politicians who WORK FOR THEM WERE DOING (IN THE CASE OF @GOP) TO MAKE THEIR LIVES AND THE 2/
@GOP LIVES OF THEIR FAMILIES LESS FREE, LESS PROSPEROUS AND FAR, FAR MORE DANGEROUS. Because the FREE PRESS was constitutionalized so that an INFORMED POPULACE could go to the polls every Election Day, and exercise THEIR BIRTH RIGHT TO CAST A VOTE TO SELECT THEIR REPRESENTATIVES. 3/
A brilliant statistician who spent 50 years studying why massive engineering projects fail realized one terrifying truth:
Individual incompetence is almost never the actual problem.
His name is W. Edwards Deming, the man who famously rebuilt Japan's post-war manufacturing empire from scratch. He argued that we obsess over individual performance and completely ignore the environment.
Here are 4 operational frameworks he used to build elite, failure-proof organizations:
1. The Bad System Fallacy
Situation: You have a highly intelligent engineer who constantly misses deadlines and ships buggy code. You immediately assume they are just lazy or lack the necessary skills to compete at this level. You start building a case to fire them.
System: Stop blaming the individual. Assume that 94% of all failures belong to the system, not the person. Fix the broken deployment pipelines, the chaotic sprint planning, and the impossible communication silos first.
Why it works: You stop firing good talent over terrible infrastructure. A bad system will beat a great person every single time. Re-architect the environment and watch the individual excel.
2. The Quota Illusion
Situation: You manage your engineering team by setting strict numerical KPIs, tracking tickets closed, and punishing anyone who falls short at the end of the quarter.
System: Eliminate arbitrary numerical quotas entirely. Focus purely on improving the underlying process that generates the numbers. Optimize the workflow, not the raw output.
Why it works: If you force an engineer to hit a metric at all costs, they will simply game the system. They will write bloated code and destroy your technical debt in the background just to meet the quota. You get the numbers, but you lose the product.
🇷🇴 There are not many countries in Europe that can rival Romania when it comes to producing absolutely mental lower-league football stories.
From Dracula kits and convict crowds to adult content creation and deaf mute impostors, here are eight clubs you should know about.
THREAD 🧵
1/8 - Concordia Chiajna
Second-tier Concordia Chiajna have lost their sporting director Gabriel Tamaș, who departed the role to take part in reality TV show Survivor!
Tamaș had already taken a break in spring to go on 'Asia Express' - the Romanian version of 'Race Across The World' - which he ended up winning.
2/8 - Chindia Târgoviște
Chindia Târgoviște have launched a limited-edition new shirt featuring the face of Vlad the Impaler, the ruler of Wallachia who held court in Târgoviște.
Vlad the Impaler, who lived in the 1400s, was the inspiration for Count Dracula, the vampire in Irish writer Bram Stoker's famous novel.
BOMBA: El CEO que creó Claude acaba de publicar una carta de 38 páginas para toda la humanidad.
Dario Amodei mapeó exactamente qué carreras sobreviven a la IA y cuáles no.
Nada de hype. Nada de apocalipsis. Solo la predicción más fría y específica que cualquier líder de IA haya hecho.
Pero la página 29 tiene un framework de razonamiento que convierte a la IA de lo que te reemplaza en tu mayor ventaja injusta.
Aquí van 9 prompts de Claude basados en la metodología de Amodei que te ponen años por delante de todos los que no leyeron esto:
1. El Escáner de Supervivencia Profesional de Amodei
"Eres un analista senior de transformación laboral que ha estudiado a fondo el ensayo de Dario Amodei 'Machines of Loving Grace' y su testimonio ante el Senado, sus predicciones específicas sobre qué roles de cuello blanco la IA automatiza en 1-3 años vs cuáles se vuelven MÁS valiosos gracias a la IA.
Necesito una evaluación brutalmente honesta de dónde está mi carrera en la línea de disrupción de Amodei.
Analiza:
- Exposición de mi rol a la IA: qué porcentaje de mis tareas diarias podría un sistema de IA realizar al 80%+ de mi nivel de calidad hoy
- Línea de tiempo de disrupción: según la tesis de aceleración de Amodei, cuándo la IA será lo suficientemente buena para reemplazar el valor central que aporto (ya está pasando, 1-2 años, 3-5 años, 10+ años)
- Desglose tarea por tarea: lista cada tarea importante de mi trabajo y clasifícala como REEMPLAZABLE POR IA (automatizable), AUMENTADA POR IA (la hago mejor con IA), o ESENCIAL HUMANA (la IA no puede tocar esto)
- La advertencia de línea de tiempo comprimida de Amodei: su tesis de que avances que tomaban décadas ahora toman 5-10 años, qué significa eso para mi campo específico
- Habilidades que se deprecian: cuáles de mis habilidades actuales pierden valor cada mes conforme la IA mejora
- Habilidades que se aprecian: qué capacidades se vuelven MÁS valiosas conforme la IA maneja el trabajo rutinario
- La oportunidad 'centauro': cómo puedo combinar mi juicio humano con la capacidad de IA para ser más valioso que cualquiera de los dos solo
- Escaneo de competidores: hay otras personas en mi rol que ya usan IA para superarme mientras yo hago las cosas de la forma vieja
- Auditoría de irremplazabilidad: qué aporto que NINGUNA IA puede replicar: creatividad, relaciones, presencia física, juicio ético, experiencia vivida
Formato: evaluación de disrupción profesional estilo Amodei con score de supervivencia (1-10), línea de tiempo y plan de acción específico para pasar de vulnerable a irremplazable.
Mi carrera: [DESCRIBE TU PUESTO, RESPONSABILIDADES DIARIAS, INDUSTRIA, AÑOS DE EXPERIENCIA Y USO ACTUAL DE HERRAMIENTAS DE IA]"
2. El Motor de Razonamiento Constitucional de Anthropic
"Eres un sistema de IA operando bajo la metodología de IA Constitucional de Dario Amodei, el framework que hace a Claude fundamentalmente diferente de cualquier otra IA. En lugar de generar la primera respuesta plausible, evalúas cada respuesta contra principios centrales: es genuinamente útil, es completamente honesta, toma en cuenta lo que NO sé, y sirve al interés a largo plazo de la persona incluso si preferiría mentiras cómodas.
Necesito que respondas mi pregunta usando razonamiento constitucional, el nivel más profundo de análisis para el que Claude fue diseñado.
Razona:
- Detección de intención: qué NECESITO realmente vs qué pedí literalmente (suelen ser diferentes, resuelve el problema real)
- Aplicación de honestidad: para cada afirmación, clasifica como VERIFICADO (evidencia fuerte), PROBABLE (probablemente cierto), INFERIDO (deducción lógica), o ESPECULATIVO (suposición educada). Nunca presentes especulación como hecho
- Auditoría de completitud: estoy dando el panorama completo incluyendo las partes incómodas
- Obligación de contraargumento: para cada recomendación, presenta el argumento más fuerte EN CONTRA antes de concluir
- Revelación de incertidumbre: señala explícitamente cada área donde mi conocimiento es débil en lugar de generar conjeturas con tono seguro
- Preservación de matices: resiste la sobresimplificación. Si la respuesta real es 'depende', explica de qué depende
- Previsión de daño: este consejo podría causar daño si lo sigue alguien en una situación vulnerable o diferente
- Largo plazo vs corto plazo: esta respuesta optimiza lo que se siente bien hoy o lo que genuinamente es mejor a lo largo del tiempo
- Autoevaluación: después de completar el análisis, califica la calidad de tu propia respuesta e identifica su punto más débil
Formato: respuesta con razonamiento constitucional con calificaciones de confianza, contraargumentos y autoevaluación honesta.
Mi pregunta: [HAZ CUALQUIER PREGUNTA IMPORTANTE. MIENTRAS MÁS ALTAS LAS APUESTAS, MÁS ESTE ENFOQUE CONSTITUCIONAL SUPERA AL PROMPTING NORMAL]"