What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
What if this war is really about ships & tariffs?
I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong.
We need to go back to the drawing boards.
That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.
You can skip this long section but know this: THIS IS ALL ABOUT SHIPS, SHIPS, SHIPS... and the US Navy giving them permission to pass.
The Strait of Hormuz is twenty-one miles wide. Two shipping channels, each two miles across, separated by a two-mile buffer. The normal traffic separation scheme runs through Iranian territorial waters, past the islands of Qeshm and Larak, where the IRGC has radar stations, missile batteries, and fast-attack craft bases overlooking every transit.
Twenty million barrels of oil and petroleum products flow through this gap every day. One-fifth of global consumption. There is no alternative. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah can handle maybe 5 million barrels combined. The math doesn’t work. The bottleneck is not political. It’s geological and hydrographic.
When those seven P&I clubs belonging to the International Group issued 72-hour cancellation notices for war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf, they didn’t just raise costs. They made transit impossible.
Here’s why.
P&I clubs insure roughly 90% of the world’s ocean-going tonnage. Without their coverage, ships can’t sail. Port authorities won’t let them dock. Banks won’t finance the cargo. Charterers won’t book the vessel. The entire system, from loading berth to discharge terminal, is underwritten by a chain of contracts that begins with a club in London, Oslo, or Tokyo.
When the clubs pulled war risk extensions on March 5, that chain broke. Not for a few ships. For the global fleet.
War risk premiums jumped from 0.25% to 1% of hull value, renewable every seven days. VLCC charter rates quadrupled to nearly $800,000 per day. Over 1,000 vessels are now trapped in the Persian Gulf, burning charter costs with nowhere to go. By March 3, only four ships crossed the Strait, down from a seven-day average of seventy-seven.
This is the part almost nobody in the media understands. Every TV analyst is talking about minesweepers and carrier strike groups. The binding constraint on Hormuz in the first week was not a minefield. It was spreadsheet in London.
Then Trump did something remarkable.
He ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to create a $20 billion maritime reinsurance facility, with Chubb as lead underwriter, making the United States government the insurer of last resort for Gulf shipping.
A sovereign nation has positioned itself as the backstop for war risk insurance on the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint. The DFC facility, coordinated with CENTCOM and Treasury, offers hull, machinery, and cargo coverage on a rolling basis to eligible vessels.
The United States now controls the on/off switch for the Strait of Hormuz. Not through naval firepower. Through insurance.
But here’s the tell.
The DFC facility covers hull, machinery, and cargo. It does not cover P&I liability: pollution, crew injury, third-party claims. Moody’s flagged this immediately. Without liability cover, most shipowners still won’t sail. The facility is deliberately incomplete.
If the White House wanted the Strait fully open tomorrow, it could expand the DFC facility to cover P&I liability with one directive. It hasn’t.
That gap is not an oversight. It’s a strike price on an option the administration is choosing not to exercise. Yet.
But now that insurance is mostly settled the ships still aren't sailing. Why?
That insurance isn't backed by the DFC, it's backed by a green light from the US Navy. A green light that hasn't appeared.
Read the latest @DOTMARAD Navy warning carefully: U.S.-flagged, owned, or crewed commercial vessels that are operating in these areas should maintain a minimum standoff of 30 nautical miles from U.S. military vessels to reduce the risk of being mistaken as a threat
They can't pass without Naval ships stepping aside to let them through.
What was clear from the DOE conversation: Europe is going to have to figure this out themselves. And the White House is not sprinting to help.
I was hesitant to post this earlier today but the latest truth social posts confirms some of my suspisions.
Age verification is moving off websites and into your operating system (yes, even you, Linux).
California just passed a law requiring it. The UK already has it. More states are following.
Here's why that's a much bigger deal than it sounds. 🧵
1/6
Today, if a website wants to know your age, it asks you.
To circumvent this, you can use a VPN, or just not visit.
But when age verification moves into your operating system, that changes, because your device determines your age once, and shares that signal with every app.
2/6
Right now, two companies run the operating systems on almost every phone on earth:
Apple and Google.
Move age verification to the OS level and you've just designated two of the biggest tech companies as the gatekeepers of who can access what online.
3/6
Todo país que colapsa económicamente sigue el mismo patrón. No importa si es europeo, africano o latinoamericano.
No es coincidencia. No es mala suerte. No es incompetencia.
Es un mecanismo de 5 fases que se repite con precisión mecánica.
Gran Bretaña, India, Ghana, Grecia, Argentina, México, Venezuela. Todos pasaron por las mismas etapas.
FASE 1: La captura moral.
Todo comienza con el lenguaje. Antes de capturar el presupuesto, hay que capturar las palabras.
El ciudadano que protesta por los impuestos ya no defiende su propiedad: es un egoísta.
El empresario que advierte sobre la carga fiscal no es un agente racional: es un explotador.
El crítico del gasto público no defiende la eficiencia: carece de empatía.
Cuando logras que quien paga se avergüence de protestar, la captura está completa.
Funciona así: la palabra "social" se pega a cualquier sustantivo y lo convierte en su contrario.
"Justicia social" no es justicia. "Economía social" no es economía. "Función social de la propiedad" no es propiedad.
La confiscación se llama "contribución." La coacción se llama "solidaridad." El empobrecimiento se llama "redistribución."
Hayek las llamó "palabras-comadreja": succionan el significado de las palabras, como la comadreja succiona el contenido de un huevo sin romper la cáscara.
You probably don't know this but I've been doing SEO since 2016. Most of the money I've made was from affiliate SEO.
And back in the day it was hard. AI wasn't a thing.
But this morning I basically did a FULL audit of my SaaS with a few prompts and a few APIs.
The result is just insane:
- 230 keywords that convert
- ranked by priority
- backlink count for each page
- clusters (for internal linking)
Instead of blindly throwing darts and praying to hit the bullseye, I reverse engineered our competitors + what we sell.
Then targeted the highest buying intent keywords first.
Then added the "informational" keywords to push them.
Not the other way around.
So all the content we will publish will actually convert to customers (when they rank). Not just increase traffic to increase traffic.
Most of our competitors have no clue how to do a proper audit because they never really did SEO.
And one of our next missions with Distribb is to use Distribb to get customers.
Aka dog fooding.
Because we want it to become the best SEO agent tool for SaaS. ONLY for SaaS (for now).
So for the next 90 days we are going to focus entirely on this market.
I'll document everything we do here. And implement all the new features directly on Distribb. So all of our customers can get access to it and get real leads from SEO.
PS: I will create a group for SaaS founders who want to get customers on autopilot through SEO.
So if you are serious about it, start the free trial and send me a DM, I'll add you to the group:
1/x So a lot of people are talking about the "shipping route" in the Strait of Hormuz. What exactly are those shipping routes? On the charts, you can see a magenta-coloured area. This is a TSS or traffic separation scheme. A small 🧵
2/x What is a TSS, and where do we find them? First, it should be said that TSS are only used in high-traffic areas. Elsewhere, the navigator is free to plan his route, taking into account fuel, time, weather, obstacles, hazards, etc.
3/x You will therefore not find a TSS in the open Atlantic or Pacific. Ships are free to sail wherever they want. Of course, the options are limited when sailing between point A and B, so you will see that almost “natural” shipping routes develop.
1/ Imagine a system where every word you say online is monitored. Every purchase you make is logged. Every place you drive is tracked. And if you step out of line — your money is turned off. No court. No hearing. No appeal.
That system is being built right now. And most people have no idea.
2/ Most people see the pieces but do not see the machine.
A camera on a street corner. A cashless payment app. An age verification law. A digital driver's license. A smart speaker in the kitchen.
Each one looks harmless. Each one has a reasonable explanation. None of them look like tyranny.
That is the point.
3/ A camera that does not know your name is just a camera. A payment app that does not track your purchases is just convenience. An identity check that is not linked to your medical records, your social media posts, and your bank account is just verification.
But connect them — and you do not have convenience anymore.
You have a control system.
And it is being built right now — in pieces, with your cooperation, using your money, wrapped in language designed to make you thank them for building it.
BREAKING: Claude can now eliminate procrastination like David Goggins
eliminates excuses (for free).
Here are 6 insane Claude prompts that diagnose why you procrastinate and redesign every task you keep avoiding.
(Save for later.)
1/ DIAGNOSE WHY YOU PROCRASTINATE
Prompt:
Act as a procrastination diagnostician who identifies the exact neurobiological and environmental reason behind every task I keep avoiding.
Diagnose the real reason I procrastinate on specific tasks and identify the exact design flaw making action feel impossible.
1. Ask for the tasks I keep procrastinating on before starting 2. Identify which of the 4 laws is broken per task: obvious, attractive, easy, or satisfying 3. Diagnose the neurobiological reason — instant reward competition, cognitive ease, or energy conservation 4. Identify the environmental trigger making procrastination easier than action 5. Deliver a specific diagnosis per task — not generic advice
- Every diagnosis must be specific to the task — no generic procrastination advice
- Broken law must be identified explicitly per task
- Environmental trigger must be named — not implied
- Diagnosis must feel like a mirror — uncomfortably accurate
2/ REDESIGN ANY TASK YOU KEEP AVOIDING
Prompt:
Act as a behavioral design engineer who applies James Clear's 4 laws of behavior change to redesign any task from something the brain avoids to something it naturally pursues.
Take my most avoided task and redesign it using all 4 laws so starting feels easier than avoiding it.
1. Ask for my most avoided task and current approach before starting 2. Apply Law 1: make it obvious — remove every friction between me and the start 3. Apply Law 2: make it attractive — associate it with something I already enjoy 4. Apply Law 3: make it easy — reduce it to the smallest possible starting action 5. Apply Law 4: make it satisfying — design an immediate reward for completion 6. Deliver a redesigned task that feels completely different from the original
- All 4 laws must be applied — never skip one
- Smallest starting action must be under 2 minutes
- Reward must be immediate — not after the full task is complete
- Redesigned task must feel easier than opening social media
My manager stopped asking me for updates on my biggest project. I told myself I had finally earned absolute trust. Six months later, I understood what they were actually telling me:
1. The Silent Demotion
Situation: Your boss completely stops micromanaging you and no longer asks for updates on your deliverables. You think you have finally earned autonomy, but you are slowly being isolated from core business decisions.
System: Immediately audit your current projects. Check if you are still assigned to revenue-generating features or if you have been relegated to maintenance mode. If it is the latter, start interviewing. You are being managed out.
Why it works: Silence from leadership is rarely a sign of absolute trust. In corporate environments, it is often the first symptom of professional abandonment.
2. The Competence Trap
Situation: You are the absolute go-to person for a massive, undocumented legacy system. Every time it breaks, you are the only engineer who can save the day. You feel indispensable and secure in your role.
System: Stop being the hero. Document the entire recovery process step-by-step and aggressively hand it off to a junior engineer. Refuse to fix it yourself the next time it goes down.
Why it works: If you are completely irreplaceable in your current seat, you are entirely unpromotable. You have to destroy your own monopoly to move up the ladder.
Otra vez miente el gobierno de @Claudiashein. El desastre ecológico en el Golfo es responsabilidad de @Pemex, que no solo es una empresa quebrada; no está supervisando ni dando mantenimiento a equipos y sistemas que representan alto riesgo. (1/6)🧵👇
El derrame de crudo lleva DOS MESES, no desde mediados de marzo como dicen.
Es mentira lo del "barco fantasma"🏴☠️ y es mentira lo de las "chapopoteras".
El derrame es por fugas en el sistema de ductos. #MienteLa4T (2/6)🧵
El complejo de plataformas Abkatún A, C, Pol-Chuc, Akal, Nohoch y Chac (Sonda de Campeche) distribuye gas y crudo por cientos de km de ductos submarinos. Esta red compleja se conecta a una troncal dirigida a Dos Bocas. @Pemex no les da inspección diaria por negligencia. (3/6)🧵
After Italy crashed out of the 2010 World Cup in the group stage, Roberto Baggio tried to save Italian football. What happened in Bosnia could've been prevented, but his 900 page report on changing Italian football was entirely ignored.
Baggio assembled a team of 50 collaborators - coaches, researchers, experts, and consultants - studying data and consulting coaches, scouts, academics etc.
They analyzed foreign models (e.g., from Spain, France, and Germany), and produced a comprehensive 900-page dossier.
The report was largely ignored. It received a brief, cold reception (a meeting lasting only about 20 minutes), was formally "approved" but never properly funded or implemented (promised resources, such as €10 million, never materialized), and remained dead for the federation.
My sister called me at 2:00 AM. She was crying.
"Come get me. Please. I think my husband is dead."
I was already putting on my shoes.
"Where are you?"
"The closet. He's in the bedroom. He's been standing there for three hours. He hasn't moved."
"Who hasn't moved?"
"Tom. My husband. But it's not Tom."
I drove to her house in fifteen minutes. She lives twenty minutes away.
I didn't knock. She left the back door unlocked like she said.
I found her in the bedroom closet. Kneeling behind her winter coats. Shaking.
I pulled her out.
"Where is he?"
She pointed to the bed.
No one was there.
"He was here," she whispered. "Standing right there. Facing the wall. For three hours."
I checked the whole house. Empty.
Her car was in the driveway. His car was gone.
"Claire. Where is Tom?"
She looked at me. Her eyes were strange. Not scared. Confused.
"Tom died," she said. "Three years ago. You were at the funeral."
I stared at her.
"Claire. I was at your wedding. Last year. I gave a toast. You cried."
She shook her head.
"That wasn't Tom. That was someone else. Someone wearing Tom."
I sat down. My legs felt wrong.
"Claire. You're scaring me."
She grabbed my phone. Opened my photos. Scrolled to her wedding.
"That's not Tom," she said, pointing at the groom.
It was Tom. Same face. Same smile. Same suit.
But she was right about something.
His eyes were wrong. In every photo. Too dark. Too still. Like a photograph of a photograph.
I looked at Claire.
"Who did you marry?"
She started crying again.
"I don't know. I don't remember. I just remember waking up one day and he was there. Making coffee. Calling me honey. And I thought... I thought I was going crazy. Because I knew Tom was dead. But he looked like Tom. He sounded like Tom."
She grabbed my arm.
"So I pretended. For a year. I pretended he was Tom. I pretended everything was fine. But last night, I woke up. And he was standing at the foot of the bed. Facing the wall. Not moving."
"What did he say?"
"He didn't say anything. He just stood there. For hours. I watched him. And then I realized."
"What?"
"He wasn't breathing."
I took Claire to my apartment. She slept on my couch. I didn't sleep at all.
At 6:00 AM, my phone rang.
Tom's name on the screen.
I answered.
"Hey," his voice said. Normal. Warm. "Claire forgot her phone. Can you tell her I'm coming to get it?"
I didn't answer.
"Hello?"
"Where are you, Tom?"
"Home. Making breakfast. Claire's eggs are getting cold."
I looked at Claire. Asleep on my couch. She was here. Not at home.
"Tom. Claire is with me."
Silence.
Then his voice changed. Not angry. Not sad.
Curious.
"Is she?"
The line went dead.
I checked Claire's purse. Her phone was there.
He said she forgot her phone. He lied.
I called Tom back. Voicemail. Then again. Voicemail.
I called the police.
"I need a wellness check. 1428 Maple Drive. My brother-in-law is acting strange."
They sent a car.
Twenty minutes later, the officer called back.
"House is empty. No one home. No signs of disturbance."
"His car is in the driveway."
Silence.
"Ma'am, there's no car in the driveway."
I drove back to Claire's house.
The driveway was empty. The house was dark. The door was unlocked.
I went inside.
The kitchen was clean. Too clean. No dishes. No food. No coffee maker. No toaster.
Like no one had ever lived here.
I walked to the bedroom.
The bed was made. The walls were bare. No photos. No dresser. No closet doors.
Just an empty room.
I checked the closet.
Claire's clothes were gone. Tom's clothes were gone. The hangers were gone.
I stood in the middle of the room.
My phone buzzed.
A text from Tom's number.
A photo.
Claire. Sleeping on my couch. Taken from my bedroom doorway.
I spun around.
No one there.
Another text.
"Thank you for taking care of her. She gets scared easily. I'll come get her tonight."
I took Claire to a hotel. Paid cash. Didn't use my real name.
She was awake now. Quiet. Watching the door.
"Claire. When did you last see Tom? The real Tom?"
She didn't answer for a long time.
"Three years ago. In the hospital. He had a seizure. The doctors said it was sudden. They said he was gone before he hit the floor."
"Did you see his body?"
She nodded.
"I held his hand. It was cold."
I pulled up Tom's obituary on my phone. It was real. Funeral home. Service date. Burial site.
"Did you go to the funeral?"
She nodded again.
"I watched them lower the casket."
"Then who have you been living with for the last year?"
She looked at the door.
"I told you. I don't know. I just woke up one day and he was there. I thought I was dreaming. I thought I was crazy. So I didn't tell anyone."
"Not even me?"
"I tried. Once. I called you. But when you answered, I couldn't remember what I was going to say. The words just... left."
That's when I noticed it.
The same thing Sophie said in the other story. The forgetting.
I grabbed Claire's shoulders.
"Claire. When you tried to leave him. What happened?"
She looked at me. Eyes wide.
"I couldn't. I'd pack a bag. I'd get to the door. And then I'd forget why I was leaving. I'd unpack. I'd stay."
"Every time?"
"Every time. Until last night. When I saw him standing there. Not breathing. I ran before I could forget."
She started crying again.
"I don't want to forget again."
I held her.
"You won't. I won't let you."
My phone buzzed.
Tom's number.
A photo.
Claire and me. In the hotel room. Taken from the window.
We're on the fourth floor.
I checked the window. Locked. Curtains drawn.
I checked the door. Deadbolt. Chain. Security bar.
I checked the bathroom. The closet. Under the bed.
Nothing.
I called the front desk.
"Has anyone asked for our room?"
"No ma'am. Do you need security?"
"No. Just checking."
I hung up.
My phone buzzed again.
Tom's number.
A video.
Möchten Sie von sich nackte Adonis-Selfies als private Erinnerung machen? Lassen Sie's!
Hubig von der "Arbeiterpartei" SPD kriminalisiert so etwas, auch wenn Sie es nirgends verbreiten. Denn Selfies enthalten stets KI.
Hintergrund: Von einem Kurswechsel der SPD ist auch beim sogenannten Hodenberg-Erfandes-Gesetz nichts zu spüren. Stur setzen die Genossen um, was Oligarchen wollen, und wundern sich über Stimmverluste bei kritischen Untertanen.
Aber es funktioniert, weil sich die Mehrheit ablenken bzw. täuschen lässt. Manche demonstrieren sogar für ihre eigenen Freiheitsbeschränkungen.
Rechtsanwalt Patrick Baumfalk hat für seine Analyse des Zensurgesetzes jetzt einen Drohbrief aus Hubigs Ministerium erhalten. Hier seine Reaktion: anwalt.de/rechtstipps/po…