Recent well liked threads
「学校のルールを元に清隆が退学する分には問題が生まれるはずもない」(7巻)
学校のルールを元に綾小路を退学させられるのは競い合う生徒か監督する教職員のどちらか。しかし、生徒からの予期せぬ願書は門前払いされる運命なので生徒の潜入は容易くない。その障害は理事長の存在によるもの
学校のルールを元に綾小路を退学させられるのは競い合う生徒か監督する教職員のどちらか。しかし、生徒からの予期せぬ願書は門前払いされる運命なので生徒の潜入は容易くない。その障害は理事長の存在によるもの
この7巻時点で想定できた展開は理事長を交代させた後に生徒や教職員として刺客を送り込むこと。事実、10巻で月城が理事代行として登場し、11.5巻ではホワイトルーム生の潜入が示唆された。また、2年生編3巻では司馬もその手の者と判明した。これらのことを坂柳理事長が全く予見できないとしたら不自然
坂柳理事長が綾小路の味方となる生徒や教職員を新たに送り込む必然性はないが、保険としては十分にありうる。生徒の潜入における難点は次の通り
the stories I’ve heard but not verified about this involve a canary trap, a journalist on a deadline reprinting specific language, a nod from George T in full Georgios Papadopoulos mode, material being planted on Millis’ computer, & Millis’ suicide
nytimes.com/2000/06/06/us/…
nytimes.com/2000/06/06/us/…
and — this one was weird
This part, of course, is evocative of the British Intel guy who found himself inside the black bag with no way to get out
If you're losing hair at the hairline and you massage your scalp regularly to reduce scalp tension - don't forget to massage GB-20/the suboccipitalis muscles
When the suboccipitalis muscles are tight for 90-99% of the day (due to stress,poor posture), the galea/scalp TIGHTENS causing loss of blood-flow to the follicles at the top of the head (but not the side) - causing eventual progression to the horseshoe shape type of hairloss.
Massaging the suboccipitalis are crucial for thicker hair to reduce scalp tension and stress.
Here's how you do it easily:
-Interlace fingers behind head and use your thumbs to apply pressure into these hollows
-Apply pressure inward and slightly upward toward the ceiling
-Hold steady pressure for 30-60 seconds while you take deep breaths and relax
3 Powerful Benefits of Stimulation (apart from thicker beautiful hair):
-Reduces tension and pain in the muscles dramatically.
-Sinus relief: Helps drain congestion and relieve pressure
-Sleep preparation: Excellent point to include in bedtime routine
You will look and feel better after massaging these muscles - no doubt about it
After massaging, you can now strengthen these muscles so they stay relaxed forever.
When the suboccipitalis muscles are tight for 90-99% of the day (due to stress,poor posture), the galea/scalp TIGHTENS causing loss of blood-flow to the follicles at the top of the head (but not the side) - causing eventual progression to the horseshoe shape type of hairloss.
Massaging the suboccipitalis are crucial for thicker hair to reduce scalp tension and stress.
Here's how you do it easily:
-Interlace fingers behind head and use your thumbs to apply pressure into these hollows
-Apply pressure inward and slightly upward toward the ceiling
-Hold steady pressure for 30-60 seconds while you take deep breaths and relax
3 Powerful Benefits of Stimulation (apart from thicker beautiful hair):
-Reduces tension and pain in the muscles dramatically.
-Sinus relief: Helps drain congestion and relieve pressure
-Sleep preparation: Excellent point to include in bedtime routine
You will look and feel better after massaging these muscles - no doubt about it
After massaging, you can now strengthen these muscles so they stay relaxed forever.
How to strengthen the suboccipitalis (do this every time you use the mobile phone for long periods of time - reducing fear and scalp tension)
9 reps of looking all the way up and down will help you now - your enjoyment of life and looks will also improve as well as hair thickness as brain stress and scalp tension reduces.
9 reps of looking all the way up and down will help you now - your enjoyment of life and looks will also improve as well as hair thickness as brain stress and scalp tension reduces.
If you're interested in preventing hairloss and regrowing beautiful hair that captures the attention of others- check out Rapid Regrowth Formula here - completely optional of course :
questmoosa.gumroad.com/l/uyfam
questmoosa.gumroad.com/l/uyfam
Lo pernah dengar kisah pengusaha muda yang bisa kumpulkan Rp 621 miliar sebelum usia 31 tahun , murni dari kerja keras sendiri?
Gue juga belum pernah dengar.
Sampai nama Kaisar Kiasa Kasih Said Putra muncul di LHKPN KPK.
Mari kita baca datanya pelan-pelan.
Gue juga belum pernah dengar.
Sampai nama Kaisar Kiasa Kasih Said Putra muncul di LHKPN KPK.
Mari kita baca datanya pelan-pelan.
Kaisar Kiasa lahir 1993.
Tahun 2024, di usia 30 tahun, dia resmi dilantik sebagai anggota DPR RI untuk pertama kalinya, pendatang baru, dapil Jawa Tengah VIII (Banyumas-Cilacap).
Ini yang dia laporkan sendiri ke KPK:
Kekayaan bruto: Rp 700,6 miliar.
Kekayaan bersih: Rp 621,6 miliar.
Surat berharga: Rp 445,2 miliar.
Kas dan setara kas: Rp 57,1 miliar.
Kendaraan: Bentley Flying Spur Hybrid 2024 seharga Rp 8 miliar, Ford Ranger 2024 seharga Rp 750 juta. Utang: Rp 79 miliar.
Status seluruh aset tersebut di kolom LHKPN:
"Hasil sendiri."
Dia langsung masuk 5 anggota DPR terkaya se-Indonesia , bersanding dengan Rusdi Kirana pendiri Lion Air, Titiek Soeharto putri mantan Presiden, dan Sihar Sitorus konglomerat Sumatera.
Yang lain, rekam jejak bisnisnya bisa diverifikasi publik.
Kaisar punya apa?
Tahun 2024, di usia 30 tahun, dia resmi dilantik sebagai anggota DPR RI untuk pertama kalinya, pendatang baru, dapil Jawa Tengah VIII (Banyumas-Cilacap).
Ini yang dia laporkan sendiri ke KPK:
Kekayaan bruto: Rp 700,6 miliar.
Kekayaan bersih: Rp 621,6 miliar.
Surat berharga: Rp 445,2 miliar.
Kas dan setara kas: Rp 57,1 miliar.
Kendaraan: Bentley Flying Spur Hybrid 2024 seharga Rp 8 miliar, Ford Ranger 2024 seharga Rp 750 juta. Utang: Rp 79 miliar.
Status seluruh aset tersebut di kolom LHKPN:
"Hasil sendiri."
Dia langsung masuk 5 anggota DPR terkaya se-Indonesia , bersanding dengan Rusdi Kirana pendiri Lion Air, Titiek Soeharto putri mantan Presiden, dan Sihar Sitorus konglomerat Sumatera.
Yang lain, rekam jejak bisnisnya bisa diverifikasi publik.
Kaisar punya apa?
Sebelum masuk DPR, yang tercatat: Sarjana Ekonomi, wiraswasta, Direktur Koran Madura, Madura FC, Jendela Madura, dan , ini yang menarik perhatian ,sempat menjadi Komisaris di PT Kereta Api Logistik, anak perusahaan BUMN PT KAI.
Dan satu lagi: Bendahara Umum DPP Banteng Muda Indonesia (BMI), organisasi sayap kepemudaan PDIP, periode 2021-2024.
Tidak ada satupun pemberitaan di media ekonomi nasional yang mencatat bisnis Kaisar Kiasa menghasilkan ratusan miliar rupiah sebelum namanya muncul di daftar caleg PDIP.
Komisaris BUMN pada usia yang sangat muda , itu bukan prestasi bisnis, itu penempatan.
Dan penempatan di BUMN selalu punya konteks politik tersendiri.
Dari gabungan seluruh rekam jejak itu, bisnis mana yang menghasilkan Rp 445 miliar dalam bentuk surat berharga?
Dan satu lagi: Bendahara Umum DPP Banteng Muda Indonesia (BMI), organisasi sayap kepemudaan PDIP, periode 2021-2024.
Tidak ada satupun pemberitaan di media ekonomi nasional yang mencatat bisnis Kaisar Kiasa menghasilkan ratusan miliar rupiah sebelum namanya muncul di daftar caleg PDIP.
Komisaris BUMN pada usia yang sangat muda , itu bukan prestasi bisnis, itu penempatan.
Dan penempatan di BUMN selalu punya konteks politik tersendiri.
Dari gabungan seluruh rekam jejak itu, bisnis mana yang menghasilkan Rp 445 miliar dalam bentuk surat berharga?
For two years, Israel struck or raided hospitals in Gaza, claiming Hamas operated from inside them.
Each strike produced a global outrage cycle: images of dead patients, condemnations from the UN, the WHO calling Shifa a “death zone,” genocide accusations at the ICJ. Israel’s counter-claim,that Hamas had embedded its military inside the medical system was ignored.
Almost every institution positioned to verify it, aid groups, UN agencies, much of the press,either stayed silent or actively disputed Israel’s version.
MSF repeatedly said it had “seen no evidence” of Hamas using hospitals , while accusing Israel of attacking healthcare. When the IDF raided Shifa and the early evidence looked thin, outlets ran fact-checks mocking the rifle count, and the skepticism hardened into a settled narrative that Israel had lied.
Then in February 2026, the least Israel-friendly credible witness imaginable,a Nobel-winning aid group that had accused Israel of genocide, documented armed men, patient arrests, and weapons movement at Nasser from the inside.
Did anyone really cover the correction? No. No they did not.
Each strike produced a global outrage cycle: images of dead patients, condemnations from the UN, the WHO calling Shifa a “death zone,” genocide accusations at the ICJ. Israel’s counter-claim,that Hamas had embedded its military inside the medical system was ignored.
Almost every institution positioned to verify it, aid groups, UN agencies, much of the press,either stayed silent or actively disputed Israel’s version.
MSF repeatedly said it had “seen no evidence” of Hamas using hospitals , while accusing Israel of attacking healthcare. When the IDF raided Shifa and the early evidence looked thin, outlets ran fact-checks mocking the rifle count, and the skepticism hardened into a settled narrative that Israel had lied.
Then in February 2026, the least Israel-friendly credible witness imaginable,a Nobel-winning aid group that had accused Israel of genocide, documented armed men, patient arrests, and weapons movement at Nasser from the inside.
Did anyone really cover the correction? No. No they did not.
Hamas weaponized the protected status of hospitals; the institutions inside those hospitals wouldn’t say so while it mattered; the press treated Israel’s claims as presumptively false and the absence of instant proof as disproof; and the corrections trickled out after the global media destroyed Israel’s credibility. The MSF statement isn’t really news about Nasser Hospital. It’s proof how the global media campaign works in action to undermine the west.
In March 2025, the last surviving pilot of the Battle of Britain died at the age of 105.
He had been shot down four times. He survived a burning cockpit, the sea, a parachute that snagged in a tree, and a fall behind enemy lines.
When he died, the last of Churchill's "Few" was gone forever.
This is the story of Paddy Hemingway..🧵1/6
He had been shot down four times. He survived a burning cockpit, the sea, a parachute that snagged in a tree, and a fall behind enemy lines.
When he died, the last of Churchill's "Few" was gone forever.
This is the story of Paddy Hemingway..🧵1/6
⠀🧵 2/6
John Allman Hemingway was born in Dublin in 1919. Everyone knew him as Paddy. He joined the Royal Air Force in 1938, and by the time the Second World War broke out he was a fighter pilot with No. 85 Squadron, flying the Hawker Hurricane.
His war began before the Battle of Britain. In May 1940, as the German army smashed through France and the Low Countries, Hemingway flew over the retreating British army as it fell back toward the beaches of Dunkirk. He shot down a German bomber and shared in destroying another, before his own Hurricane was hit by anti-aircraft fire and he was forced down near Maastricht.
His squadron was mauled in the fighting over France. They came home to Britain with only a handful of working aircraft and many of their pilots dead, wounded, or missing.
There was no time to rest. The Germans were already turning their attention across the Channel. Hitler intended to destroy the RAF, win control of the skies, and then invade Britain.
The only thing standing in his way was a few hundred young fighter pilots. Paddy Hemingway was one of them.
John Allman Hemingway was born in Dublin in 1919. Everyone knew him as Paddy. He joined the Royal Air Force in 1938, and by the time the Second World War broke out he was a fighter pilot with No. 85 Squadron, flying the Hawker Hurricane.
His war began before the Battle of Britain. In May 1940, as the German army smashed through France and the Low Countries, Hemingway flew over the retreating British army as it fell back toward the beaches of Dunkirk. He shot down a German bomber and shared in destroying another, before his own Hurricane was hit by anti-aircraft fire and he was forced down near Maastricht.
His squadron was mauled in the fighting over France. They came home to Britain with only a handful of working aircraft and many of their pilots dead, wounded, or missing.
There was no time to rest. The Germans were already turning their attention across the Channel. Hitler intended to destroy the RAF, win control of the skies, and then invade Britain.
The only thing standing in his way was a few hundred young fighter pilots. Paddy Hemingway was one of them.
🧵 3/6
The Battle of Britain began in July 1940. Day after day, German bombers and fighters came across the Channel, and the outnumbered pilots of RAF Fighter Command rose to meet them.
Hemingway's orders were to go for the bombers. His Hurricane carried only about 14 seconds of ammunition in total, so he learned to hold his fire and shoot in short, precise bursts to make every round count.
In a single eight-day stretch in August 1940, he was shot down twice.
On August 18, a day of fighting so intense it became known as The Hardest Day, his Hurricane was hit by return fire from a German bomber he was attacking. He bailed out over the Thames Estuary and came down in the sea, where he was pulled from the water by the crew of a lightship.
Eight days later, on August 26, he was shot down again by a German fighter and bailed out over the marshes of Essex, landing unhurt.
He simply climbed into another Hurricane and kept fighting. That was what the Few did. There was no one else to do it.
The Battle of Britain began in July 1940. Day after day, German bombers and fighters came across the Channel, and the outnumbered pilots of RAF Fighter Command rose to meet them.
Hemingway's orders were to go for the bombers. His Hurricane carried only about 14 seconds of ammunition in total, so he learned to hold his fire and shoot in short, precise bursts to make every round count.
In a single eight-day stretch in August 1940, he was shot down twice.
On August 18, a day of fighting so intense it became known as The Hardest Day, his Hurricane was hit by return fire from a German bomber he was attacking. He bailed out over the Thames Estuary and came down in the sea, where he was pulled from the water by the crew of a lightship.
Eight days later, on August 26, he was shot down again by a German fighter and bailed out over the marshes of Essex, landing unhurt.
He simply climbed into another Hurricane and kept fighting. That was what the Few did. There was no one else to do it.
🧵 Here is the TRUTH: Dangerous gain-of-function research was funded by the U.S. government around the world, directed and approved by people like Dr Fauci. @DNIGabbard exposed that yesterday.
Using U.S. government data, put together and uncovered by career subject matter experts in the Intelligence Community and other government agencies, yesterday’s release highlighted one example of the many overseas biolabs funded by the U.S., the research conducted there, and the significant risks they pose to the world, especially when located in a country at war.
🔗 dni.gov/files/BIOLAB_S…
Using U.S. government data, put together and uncovered by career subject matter experts in the Intelligence Community and other government agencies, yesterday’s release highlighted one example of the many overseas biolabs funded by the U.S., the research conducted there, and the significant risks they pose to the world, especially when located in a country at war.
🔗 dni.gov/files/BIOLAB_S…
Slide 1: A draft President’s Daily Brief, written after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, details threats to Ukraine labs due to dangerous pathogen storage. Biden officials confirmed this on the record.
The biolabs in Ukraine and other countries held and may continue to hold hazardous pathogens, they were built/funded by the U.S., and received substantial funding that powerful people and interests want to keep flowing.
The biolabs in Ukraine and other countries held and may continue to hold hazardous pathogens, they were built/funded by the U.S., and received substantial funding that powerful people and interests want to keep flowing.
Slide 2: A map created by ODNI using U.S. government data to show lab locations, biosafety levels at each location, the type of research being conducted, and if biological weapons were being stored.
You know what fuckkk ittttt I am enjoying being inside watching cops and I hope to see more #NYPD cops beat the fucking shiiiot out of these mother fuckers as long as my cops are safe and can get away with it I will be happy and I'll keep enjoying watching 😁👍👍
@SurreyRCMP @surreyps @LangleyRCMP
@ChrisPentecos @Nncim15 @Ilovecanada13 @HarperMonste @BarbaraDoduk @RegretlessBee @Cdnwatcher @Istandtoreason @facepalmchris @trustednerd @MalaMoragain13 @felixcruggins @CultureGuard @WaxMyBallsShow @FranLa9 @kfurneaux23 @VernThurston
@ChrisPentecos @Nncim15 @Ilovecanada13 @HarperMonste @BarbaraDoduk @RegretlessBee @Cdnwatcher @Istandtoreason @facepalmchris @trustednerd @MalaMoragain13 @felixcruggins @CultureGuard @WaxMyBallsShow @FranLa9 @kfurneaux23 @VernThurston
@SurreyRCMP @surreyps @LangleyRCMP @ChrisPentecos @Nncim15 @Ilovecanada13 @HarperMonste @BarbaraDoduk @RegretlessBee @Cdnwatcher @Istandtoreason @facepalmchris @trustednerd @MalaMoragain13 @felixcruggins @CultureGuard @WaxMyBallsShow @FranLa9 @kfurneaux23 @VernThurston @threadreaderapp unroll @grok
I don't understand why so many people want US, UK, Canadian, or German citizenship.
Here are 12 websites to find remote jobs that pay in USD worldwide:
Here are 12 websites to find remote jobs that pay in USD worldwide:
1. Arise
Arise offers remote customer service opportunities, allowing individuals to work from home as independent contractors. Flexible scheduling available.
Earn $10–$20 per hour.
🔗 arise.com
Arise offers remote customer service opportunities, allowing individuals to work from home as independent contractors. Flexible scheduling available.
Earn $10–$20 per hour.
🔗 arise.com
2. KellyConnect
KellyConnect provides remote customer service and tech support roles, perfect for those seeking flexible work-from-home opportunities.
Pay ranges from $15-$17 per hour with training included.
🔗 kellyconnect.com
KellyConnect provides remote customer service and tech support roles, perfect for those seeking flexible work-from-home opportunities.
Pay ranges from $15-$17 per hour with training included.
🔗 kellyconnect.com
To everyone questioning SpaceX / $SPCX’s highly successful IPO and its $2.1T market cap, let me share what I believe is the best arbitrage setup.
Do you know $SATS?
$SATS is expected to receive 261.8M shares of $SPCX, worth roughly $42B based on the 6/12 closing price.
Yet SATS’ current market cap is only about $33B.
Short: $SPCX
Long: $SATS
$SATS will effectively own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.
According to the SPCX prospectus, in exchange for acquiring spectrum from SATS, SPCX will pay SATS 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, roughly $8.5B in cash, and an additional ~$2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS would otherwise have been responsible for.
In addition, SATS is expected to sell roughly $23B of spectrum to $T.
The transactions with $T and SPCX were approved by the FCC on 5/12. If no petition for reconsideration was filed by 6/11, the approval should likely have become final automatically. As of 6/14, I have not confirmed any petition for reconsideration.
Also, the spectrum transfer structure is SATS → TRUST → SPCX. Since the SATS → TRUST transfer has already been completed, I believe the closing risk is relatively low.
Now let’s calculate $SATS NAV.
My base NAV assumptions:
SPCX ownership: approximately 2%
SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M
Fully diluted shares after convertible bonds: 348M
I use 348M shares in the calculation below.
Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
From $T: approximately $23B
From $SPCX: approximately $8B in cash
Total: approximately $31B
Assuming the convertible bonds are converted into equity, net cash after debt repayment would be roughly $11B.
Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B
Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B
Remaining operating business value: $10B
Based on roughly $300M of operating income in Q1 2026 × 4 quarters × 8x multiple.
Even after the spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX, SATS will retain remaining spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.
If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.
Formula:
SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + remaining operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares
SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:
• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254
This is my personal analysis, not financial advice.
Do you know $SATS?
$SATS is expected to receive 261.8M shares of $SPCX, worth roughly $42B based on the 6/12 closing price.
Yet SATS’ current market cap is only about $33B.
Short: $SPCX
Long: $SATS
$SATS will effectively own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.
According to the SPCX prospectus, in exchange for acquiring spectrum from SATS, SPCX will pay SATS 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, roughly $8.5B in cash, and an additional ~$2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS would otherwise have been responsible for.
In addition, SATS is expected to sell roughly $23B of spectrum to $T.
The transactions with $T and SPCX were approved by the FCC on 5/12. If no petition for reconsideration was filed by 6/11, the approval should likely have become final automatically. As of 6/14, I have not confirmed any petition for reconsideration.
Also, the spectrum transfer structure is SATS → TRUST → SPCX. Since the SATS → TRUST transfer has already been completed, I believe the closing risk is relatively low.
Now let’s calculate $SATS NAV.
My base NAV assumptions:
SPCX ownership: approximately 2%
SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M
Fully diluted shares after convertible bonds: 348M
I use 348M shares in the calculation below.
Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:
From $T: approximately $23B
From $SPCX: approximately $8B in cash
Total: approximately $31B
Assuming the convertible bonds are converted into equity, net cash after debt repayment would be roughly $11B.
Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B
Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B
Remaining operating business value: $10B
Based on roughly $300M of operating income in Q1 2026 × 4 quarters × 8x multiple.
Even after the spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX, SATS will retain remaining spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.
If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.
Formula:
SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + remaining operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares
SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:
• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254
This is my personal analysis, not financial advice.
I think the tax treatment around $SATS’ spectrum sales is widely misunderstood.
A lot of people seem to be doing this:
Total $T / $SPCX transaction value × 21%
That is the wrong framework.
Taxes are not applied to gross proceeds.
They are applied to taxable gain.
Here is the potential consideration:
$T transaction:
• Cash consideration: ~$22.65B
$SPCX transaction:
• SPCX equity: 261.8M shares × $42.40 = ~$11.1B
• SPCX cash: ~$8.5B
• SPCX interest coverage: ~$2.0B
Total potential consideration:
$22.65B + $11.1B + $8.5B + $2.0B
= ~$44.25B
At first glance, that looks like a huge tax base.
But it is not taxable gain.
There are major offsets that need to be considered.
SATS has invested more than $30B in wireless spectrum licenses.
That figure does not include roughly $10B of capitalized interest.
So on a historical investment basis, we are talking about more than $40B of spectrum-related investment.
Not all of that necessarily becomes the tax basis for the specific spectrum being sold to $T and $SPCX.
But the point is simple:
Against ~$44.25B of gross consideration, the potential tax basis may be very large.
There is also the 2025 loss.
SATS recorded:
• Net loss: ~$14.5B
• Non-cash asset impairment and other charges: ~$17.6B
A non-cash accounting impairment does not mean the same amount of cash left the business.
And even if assets are impaired for accounting purposes, tax basis may remain meaningfully higher than accounting carrying value.
So the tax calculation needs to consider:
• Tax basis of the spectrum sold
• Accumulated losses
• NOLs / tax loss carryforwards
• Deferred tax assets
• Other available deductions
The wrong calculation is:
$44.25B × 21%
= ~$9.3B of tax
That is likely overstated.
The better framework is:
Taxable income
= transaction consideration
− tax basis of spectrum sold
− usable NOLs / loss carryforwards
− other tax deductions
Then corporate tax is applied to the remaining amount.
My rough tax range:
• Bull case: $0–0.5B
• Base case: $1.0–2.0B
• Conservative case: $2.5–4.0B
Another important point is the SPCX equity.
The SPCX shares SATS receives are contractually valued at:
261.8M shares × $42.40
= ~$11.1B
So the equity consideration should first be viewed on a $42.40/share basis.
If SPCX trades at $180 after the IPO, the upside above $42.40 should generally remain unrealized unless SATS sells the shares.
In other words, I do not assume immediate taxation on the post-IPO mark-to-market upside of the SPCX shares.
Conclusion:
Looking at $SATS tax as:
$44.25B gross transaction value × 21%
= ~$9.3B tax
is far too simplistic.
The relevant numbers are:
• Gross consideration: ~$44.25B
• Spectrum-related investment: more than $30B
• Capitalized interest: ~$10B
• 2025 net loss: ~$14.5B
• 2025 non-cash impairment and other charges: ~$17.6B
• SPCX equity consideration: $42.40/share basis
• Post-IPO upside in SPCX shares should not be taxed immediately unless SATS sells
My base case is that actual cash taxes could be closer to $1.0–2.0B, not $9.3B.
And even this does not materially change my NAV framework.
Why?
Because my NAV calculation is already conservative.
When valuing the remaining operating business, I do not include the benefit from being released from extremely burdensome interest expenses.
When calculating balance sheet value, I exclude SATS assets other than spectrum and cash.
And for the ~$2.0B of interest coverage to be received from SPCX, the portion SATS has already paid should effectively be treated like a receivable.
I have not included that either.
So the point is not that taxes are zero.
The point is that “gross proceeds × 21%” is not the right starting point.
A lot of people seem to be doing this:
Total $T / $SPCX transaction value × 21%
That is the wrong framework.
Taxes are not applied to gross proceeds.
They are applied to taxable gain.
Here is the potential consideration:
$T transaction:
• Cash consideration: ~$22.65B
$SPCX transaction:
• SPCX equity: 261.8M shares × $42.40 = ~$11.1B
• SPCX cash: ~$8.5B
• SPCX interest coverage: ~$2.0B
Total potential consideration:
$22.65B + $11.1B + $8.5B + $2.0B
= ~$44.25B
At first glance, that looks like a huge tax base.
But it is not taxable gain.
There are major offsets that need to be considered.
SATS has invested more than $30B in wireless spectrum licenses.
That figure does not include roughly $10B of capitalized interest.
So on a historical investment basis, we are talking about more than $40B of spectrum-related investment.
Not all of that necessarily becomes the tax basis for the specific spectrum being sold to $T and $SPCX.
But the point is simple:
Against ~$44.25B of gross consideration, the potential tax basis may be very large.
There is also the 2025 loss.
SATS recorded:
• Net loss: ~$14.5B
• Non-cash asset impairment and other charges: ~$17.6B
A non-cash accounting impairment does not mean the same amount of cash left the business.
And even if assets are impaired for accounting purposes, tax basis may remain meaningfully higher than accounting carrying value.
So the tax calculation needs to consider:
• Tax basis of the spectrum sold
• Accumulated losses
• NOLs / tax loss carryforwards
• Deferred tax assets
• Other available deductions
The wrong calculation is:
$44.25B × 21%
= ~$9.3B of tax
That is likely overstated.
The better framework is:
Taxable income
= transaction consideration
− tax basis of spectrum sold
− usable NOLs / loss carryforwards
− other tax deductions
Then corporate tax is applied to the remaining amount.
My rough tax range:
• Bull case: $0–0.5B
• Base case: $1.0–2.0B
• Conservative case: $2.5–4.0B
Another important point is the SPCX equity.
The SPCX shares SATS receives are contractually valued at:
261.8M shares × $42.40
= ~$11.1B
So the equity consideration should first be viewed on a $42.40/share basis.
If SPCX trades at $180 after the IPO, the upside above $42.40 should generally remain unrealized unless SATS sells the shares.
In other words, I do not assume immediate taxation on the post-IPO mark-to-market upside of the SPCX shares.
Conclusion:
Looking at $SATS tax as:
$44.25B gross transaction value × 21%
= ~$9.3B tax
is far too simplistic.
The relevant numbers are:
• Gross consideration: ~$44.25B
• Spectrum-related investment: more than $30B
• Capitalized interest: ~$10B
• 2025 net loss: ~$14.5B
• 2025 non-cash impairment and other charges: ~$17.6B
• SPCX equity consideration: $42.40/share basis
• Post-IPO upside in SPCX shares should not be taxed immediately unless SATS sells
My base case is that actual cash taxes could be closer to $1.0–2.0B, not $9.3B.
And even this does not materially change my NAV framework.
Why?
Because my NAV calculation is already conservative.
When valuing the remaining operating business, I do not include the benefit from being released from extremely burdensome interest expenses.
When calculating balance sheet value, I exclude SATS assets other than spectrum and cash.
And for the ~$2.0B of interest coverage to be received from SPCX, the portion SATS has already paid should effectively be treated like a receivable.
I have not included that either.
So the point is not that taxes are zero.
The point is that “gross proceeds × 21%” is not the right starting point.
Additional note on potential dilution:
The performance / market-condition-based option appears to be a long-dated option expiring in 2031, with an exercise price of $78.98.
It also appears to vest in 10 tranches, with 10% becoming exercisable at each stage.
So even if the stock price were to reach $300, the gross dilution would be approximately 2.19M shares. On a net share settlement basis, after deducting the exercise price, the dilution would be approximately 1.61M shares.
At a $200 stock price, the gross dilution would be approximately 1.75M shares, while the net dilution would be approximately 1.06M shares.
Therefore, for item 1, the percentage impact on total share count does not appear to be very material.
I could not clearly identify the exercise price of the warrants.
However, the warrants appear to expire on August 15, 2026. For modeling purposes, I assume the exercise prices are evenly split into 10 tranches between $185 and $245.
Under that assumption:
At a $200 stock price, gross dilution would be approximately 4.845M shares, but net dilution would be only approximately 185K shares.
At a $250 stock price, gross dilution would be approximately 16.51M shares, while net dilution would be approximately 2.22M shares.
At a $300 stock price, gross dilution would be approximately 16.151M shares, while net dilution would be approximately 4.547M shares.
For item 2, although the gross share count looks large, the net dilution is much smaller once the exercise price is taken into account.
Also, because these warrants expire on August 15, 2026, the relevant question is where the stock price is at that specific expiration date.
Given that time constraint, I do not think these warrants are a major dilution overhang unless the stock trades substantially above the assumed warrant strike range before expiration.
Overall, item 1 does not appear to have a meaningful percentage impact, and item 2 also seems manageable when viewed on a net dilution basis and considering the August 15, 2026 expiration date.
The performance / market-condition-based option appears to be a long-dated option expiring in 2031, with an exercise price of $78.98.
It also appears to vest in 10 tranches, with 10% becoming exercisable at each stage.
So even if the stock price were to reach $300, the gross dilution would be approximately 2.19M shares. On a net share settlement basis, after deducting the exercise price, the dilution would be approximately 1.61M shares.
At a $200 stock price, the gross dilution would be approximately 1.75M shares, while the net dilution would be approximately 1.06M shares.
Therefore, for item 1, the percentage impact on total share count does not appear to be very material.
I could not clearly identify the exercise price of the warrants.
However, the warrants appear to expire on August 15, 2026. For modeling purposes, I assume the exercise prices are evenly split into 10 tranches between $185 and $245.
Under that assumption:
At a $200 stock price, gross dilution would be approximately 4.845M shares, but net dilution would be only approximately 185K shares.
At a $250 stock price, gross dilution would be approximately 16.51M shares, while net dilution would be approximately 2.22M shares.
At a $300 stock price, gross dilution would be approximately 16.151M shares, while net dilution would be approximately 4.547M shares.
For item 2, although the gross share count looks large, the net dilution is much smaller once the exercise price is taken into account.
Also, because these warrants expire on August 15, 2026, the relevant question is where the stock price is at that specific expiration date.
Given that time constraint, I do not think these warrants are a major dilution overhang unless the stock trades substantially above the assumed warrant strike range before expiration.
Overall, item 1 does not appear to have a meaningful percentage impact, and item 2 also seems manageable when viewed on a net dilution basis and considering the August 15, 2026 expiration date.
A woman got the dreaded red banner: "Your Google Storage is Full." She could no longer send or receive emails.
She deleted hundreds of photos. Emptied her spam. The warning wouldn't go away.
She pulled out her credit card, ready to pay the $100/year Google One subscription.
Her IT friend grabbed her phone: "Before you pay Google a monthly tax for the rest of your life, let me show you something."
He opened her Google account and shook his head.
"There are 8 hidden data hogs filling up your free 15GB. Google hides them so you are forced to upgrade. Let's fix this."
Here's what he showed her in the next 8 minutes. 🧵
She deleted hundreds of photos. Emptied her spam. The warning wouldn't go away.
She pulled out her credit card, ready to pay the $100/year Google One subscription.
Her IT friend grabbed her phone: "Before you pay Google a monthly tax for the rest of your life, let me show you something."
He opened her Google account and shook his head.
"There are 8 hidden data hogs filling up your free 15GB. Google hides them so you are forced to upgrade. Let's fix this."
Here's what he showed her in the next 8 minutes. 🧵
THE IT FRIEND INTERVENES
Her IT friend happened to be sitting right next to her at the cafe. He saw what she was doing and quickly reached out to grab her phone.
"Before you pay Google a monthly tax for the rest of your life, please let me show you something first."
He opened her Google account settings, scrolled for exactly two seconds, and shook his head in disbelief.
"There are nine hidden data hogs filling up your free 15GB. Google intentionally hides them deep in the menus so you feel totally forced to upgrade. Put your wallet away right now. Let us fix this together."
Here is exactly what he showed her over the next few minutes.
Her IT friend happened to be sitting right next to her at the cafe. He saw what she was doing and quickly reached out to grab her phone.
"Before you pay Google a monthly tax for the rest of your life, please let me show you something first."
He opened her Google account settings, scrolled for exactly two seconds, and shook his head in disbelief.
"There are nine hidden data hogs filling up your free 15GB. Google intentionally hides them deep in the menus so you feel totally forced to upgrade. Put your wallet away right now. Let us fix this together."
Here is exactly what he showed her over the next few minutes.
THE TRASH TRAP (THE PROBLEM)
Situation: She dutifully emptied her entire Gmail inbox. She deleted 600 blurry photos from Google Photos. She checked her storage bar, and it stayed stubbornly stuck at 98 percent full. Absolutely nothing moved.
The Problem: When you delete files, they do not actually disappear. They sit in your Trash folder for a full 30 days. They still count against your 15GB limit the entire time. Most people obsessively empty their inbox but never even think to touch the actual Trash folder.
Situation: She dutifully emptied her entire Gmail inbox. She deleted 600 blurry photos from Google Photos. She checked her storage bar, and it stayed stubbornly stuck at 98 percent full. Absolutely nothing moved.
The Problem: When you delete files, they do not actually disappear. They sit in your Trash folder for a full 30 days. They still count against your 15GB limit the entire time. Most people obsessively empty their inbox but never even think to touch the actual Trash folder.
The horror of the movie is playing off zoomer anxiety from feminist socialization that they don't have a right to desire girls and to want those girls to like them, and that this makes them evil; with added metaphor for how BPD is no "real" solution to male desire to be desired.
If the film's popularity doesn't get across that this is a deeply internalized part of the zoomer male psyche, which they got from the way their female peers talk about how males with crushes on their friends are evil and selfish, the universal female response to it will.
Same way that Inglourious Basterds is best watched in a theater or with a group of lib normies to get the full experience of seeing them cheer the mass slaughter of "Nazis" on their screen while the Nazis are doing the exact same thing as them.
The perfect LLM has over 10.5 quadrillion params
This number is based on actual research, but how?
Almost a year ago a paper called "Pre-training under infinite compute" came out of Stanford's most famous LLM researchers [1/6]
This number is based on actual research, but how?
Almost a year ago a paper called "Pre-training under infinite compute" came out of Stanford's most famous LLM researchers [1/6]
They argue that compute grows 4x per year, while text grows way slower, just 3% per year
So we're getting closer to a regime of infinite compute and finite data
This will be a very different setting from the current one, which focuses on maximizing capability per param [2/6]
So we're getting closer to a regime of infinite compute and finite data
This will be a very different setting from the current one, which focuses on maximizing capability per param [2/6]
Chinchilla (DeepMind 2022) proposed to train 1 param every 20 tokens. Llama used up to 1 param every ~1000 tokens
"Pre-training under infinite compute" argues that, given infinite compute, we can train over 1 param every 0.03 tokens, (35 params per token!) [3/6]
"Pre-training under infinite compute" argues that, given infinite compute, we can train over 1 param every 0.03 tokens, (35 params per token!) [3/6]
Venezuela’s $170 billion debt is twice the size of its economy and 10 times its 2025 oil revenues.
This is why investment banks are lining up to take one of the most complex sovereign debt restructurings in the world.
But behind these $170 billion, there is a lot to unpack 🧵
This is why investment banks are lining up to take one of the most complex sovereign debt restructurings in the world.
But behind these $170 billion, there is a lot to unpack 🧵
First of all, the number:
Where does $170 billion come from?
1st) The Chavez administration consistently running budget deficits to sustain its web of populism, despite receiving $800 billion in oil revenues.
2nd) International arbitration cases against Venezuela.
Where does $170 billion come from?
1st) The Chavez administration consistently running budget deficits to sustain its web of populism, despite receiving $800 billion in oil revenues.
2nd) International arbitration cases against Venezuela.
Now let's compare Venezuela's liabilities with its finances:
Venezuela's 2025 GDP is $83 billion (IMFNews), and the country's 2025 oil exports revenues were $18.2 billion.
Venezuela's reported debt is therefore 200% of its GDP and 1000% its 2025 oil exports.
Venezuela's 2025 GDP is $83 billion (IMFNews), and the country's 2025 oil exports revenues were $18.2 billion.
Venezuela's reported debt is therefore 200% of its GDP and 1000% its 2025 oil exports.
@thetripathi58 @THREADREADERAPP UNROLL
@thetripathi58 @threadreaderapp @threadreaderapp unroll
@CultureeGuard @JonYaniv @Cdnwatcher @threadreaderapp @SurreyRCMP @surreyps @LangleyRCMP @ChrisPentecos @Nncim15 @Ilovecanada13 @HarperMonste @facepalmchris @trustednerd @felixcruggins @CultureGuard @WaxMyBallsShow @FranLa9 @kfurneaux23 @VernThurston We should whip our dicks out in front of Ladybug Farms!!! It’s a good way to get more visitors to the petting zoo (literally)
@CultureeGuard @JonYaniv @Cdnwatcher @threadreaderapp @SurreyRCMP @surreyps @LangleyRCMP @ChrisPentecos @Nncim15 @Ilovecanada13 @HarperMonste @facepalmchris @trustednerd @felixcruggins @CultureGuard @WaxMyBallsShow @FranLa9 @kfurneaux23 @VernThurston Wait I meant Ducks!! Quack Quack 🦆🤣
@CultureeGuard @JonYaniv @Cdnwatcher @threadreaderapp @SurreyRCMP @surreyps @LangleyRCMP @ChrisPentecos @Nncim15 @Ilovecanada13 @HarperMonste @facepalmchris @trustednerd @felixcruggins @CultureGuard @WaxMyBallsShow @FranLa9 @kfurneaux23 @VernThurston @threadreaderapp unroll