Na przełomie lutego i marca odbyłem kolejną podróż studyjną na Ukrainę. Jej celem była ocena charakteru wojny oraz kierunku, w którym zmierza. Poniżej moje obserwacje, poszerzone o wydarzenia z ostatnich 45 dni.
Rok temu napisałem tutaj nitkę, której głównym przesłaniem było to, że Ukrainę czekają bardzo ciężkie miesiące — głównie ze względu na problemy z mobilizacją, ale też szeroko pojętą organizację walki.
Od tego czasu Rosjanie zdobyli aglomerację pokrowsko-myrnohradzką i weszli do Łymania. Zajmując Siewiersk, znaleźli się ok. 20 km na wschód od Kramatorska i Słowiańska.
Skala zdobyczy terytorialnych w obw. Zaporoskim (kierunek Hulajpole) przełożyła się na sukces operacyjny, którego jednak Rosjanie nie byli w stanie w pełni wykorzystać.
Na południe od Zaporoża znajdowali się w odległości 15–20 kilometrów od miasta. W rezultacie, mimo bardzo dużych strat, rosyjskie zdobycze terytorialne w 2025 r. były o ok. 30% większe niż w 2024 r. Rok 2026 rozpoczął się więc nie tylko z poważnie uszkodzonym systemem energetycznym Ukrainy, ale też z utrwaloną rosyjską inicjatywą strategiczną na większości kierunków.
Mimo to początek roku był dla Ukrainy relatywnie udany i wiele wskazuje na to, że ten trend nie musi się odwrócić wraz z nadejściem wiosny.
Po pierwsze, moim zdaniem ukraiński kontratak na kierunku Hulajpole (koniec stycznia) był bardzo skuteczny. Ukraińcy nie tylko odepchnęli Rosjan za rzekę Hajczur, ale też według naszych szacunków Rosjanie utracili ok. 400–500 km².
Były to największe ukraińskie zdobycze od czasu operacji kurskiej latem 2024 r. W ciągu 6 tygodni Ukraińcy cofnęli rosyjskie zdobycze o kilka miesięcy.
Mimo problemów z koordynacją i niepełnej realizacji celów, operacja była dużym sukcesem taktycznym. Pokazała, że przy odpowiednim rozpoznaniu i integracji artylerii oraz dronów możliwe jest częściowe przywrócenie manewru wojsk zmechanizowo-motowych. To może być model (po dopracowaniu) dla przyszłych operacji.
Recruitment in Russia is slowing down. In Q1 of 2026, numbers were down by 20% compared to last year. This change is evident in both official statements and budget data. On average, it was 800 new contract soldiers per day this year.
The slowdown is not a result of "less demand" by the Ministry of Defense. Otherwise, Russia's regions would not continue increasing their bonuses. But the average regional bonus has reached a new record of ~1.5 million rubles.
Meanwhile, payouts for killed soldiers are continuing at a rapid rate. I only have data for 17 regions (22% of Russia's population), so treat this information with caution. There is also greater uncertainty surrounding the timing of KIA, i.e. the time lag between KIA and payout.
Meine Einschätzung zu den geplanten Maßnahmen der Bundesregierung:
Die bislang angekündigten Entlastungsmaßnahmen der Bundesregierung bei den Energiepreisen greifen zu kurz und sind in Teilen sogar kontraproduktiv.
🧵
Die temporäre Senkung der Energiesteuer auf Benzin und Diesel birgt die Gefahr, dass ein erheblicher Teil der Entlastung nicht bei den Verbraucherinnen und Verbrauchern ankommt, sondern auf den Konten der Mineralölkonzerne landet.
Gleichzeitig setzt sie falsche Anreize, da sie den notwendigen Rückgang des Energieverbrauchs im Straßenverkehr nicht unterstützt und damit den Preisdruck an anderer Stelle eher verstärken kann.
🧵SOUTH CAROLINIANS: @MarkLynchSC is endorsed by Gen. Mike Flynn (Ret.) and made the repost you see below. The remaining posts in this thread are:
1. Mike Flynn leading an auditorium in an occult prayer, quoting it almost word-for-word from Theosophist cult priestess Elizabeth Clare Prophet.
2. The video Lynch reposted from the Chinese communist "professor" in which he explains how capitalism is slavery because it rejects what occultists call "unitive consciousness."
3. A link to a post that describes what the commie professor is talking about. It's the occult idea of "unitive consciousness." It is collectivist, and it will be, and has been, used to justify mass ₥uŗðег.
Nobody likes Graham, but to replace him with this guy would be leaping out of the frying pan and doing a cannonball into the fire.
@TaraServatius, @bfrady61, @CharlieOnAir
Here's Mike Flynn leading a congregation in what may sound like a Christian prayer, but is in fact an occult prayer. Specifically, it is almost word-for-word a prayer offered in the '80s by Theosophist Elizabeth Clare Prophet, who headed the Summit Lighthouse cult.
Here's the video that Mark Lynch's campaign reposted. This is Chinese communist fake professor Jiang Xueqin telling us how capitalism and the United States are evil because we reject unitive consciousness, a fundamental tenet of the occult.
KOMUNISTICKÁ ČÍNA JAKO ASOCIÁLNÍ PEKLO
1/10
Čínský sen narazil do zdi. Komunistická strana vyměnila sociální smlouvu za systém, který z občanů udělá psance rychleji, než stihnou zjistit, proč jejich děti polykají pesticidy. Ekonomický zázrak vystřídala kaskádová sociální krize. ⬇️
2/10
Mezi lety 2017 a 2021 se sebevraždy urbanizované mládeže zdvojnásobily. V provincii Kuang-tung mělo sebevražedné myšlenky 18 % studentů. Mladá generace v Číně čím dál častěji plánuje únik ze světa dříve, než vůbec začne reálně žít. ⬇️
3/10
Tlak na úspěch funguje jako pomalá otrava. Budoucnost rodiny leží na bedrech teenagerů, kteří musí zajistit stárnoucí rodiče, protože státní záchranná síť je děravá. Školní úzkost a kyberšikana vedou k naprosté bezvýchodnosti. ⬇️
Benefit: Iran might agree to a slightly better deal with no enrichment.
Costs: higher global oil prices; higher domestic gas prices; longer period of damage to world economy; humanitarian suffering in Iran; increased tensions with China…
My kingdom for a politician who understands that oil is priced globally.
Your doctor calls it "fatigue." But there are two completely different mechanisms producing that word, and the treatment for each one is different.
Thread:
2/6 Autonomic fatigue worsens upright. Improves lying flat. Can strike minutes after standing. Hydration and position change speed recovery. The nervous system cannot regulate blood flow when vertical.
3/6 Mitochondrial fatigue ignores position. A conversation drains you. Reading drains you. The crash arrives hours later, sometimes the next morning. Lying flat does nothing. You wait.
Melihat maraknya sorotan pada kasus KS setelah kasus pelecehan di FHUI, saya sadar diam bukan lagi pilihan. Saya juga korban dari pria yang saya beri kepercayaan sebagai teman selama >10 tahun hanya untuk MELECEHKAN bahkan MEMPERKOSA saya di saat saya sedang dalam kondisi sakit.
Tanpa banyak basi, pelaku adalah Fajri Revandy Putra, alumni FIS S1 Pendidikan Geografi UNJ lulusan 2021 dan saat ini bekerja di Good Doctor serta aktif di komunitas sosial yg berbagi makanan tiap minggu.
IG: fajrirevan
X: _rrevan
Kami kenal sejak 2013, dipertemukan oleh kegiatan ekstrakurikuler dan kami memang menjaga komunikasi melalui LINE, IG, dan WhastApp sampai kejadian itu terjadi pada akhir Agustus 2024. Beberapa riwayat komunikasi masih tersimpan.
Voisinpa kertoa yhteenlaskettuna noin 100 vuoden kokemuksella lähipiiristäni (varhaiskasvatus, esi- ja perusopetus, aikuiskasvatus) mitä haittoja inkluusio aiheuttaa opetustilanteissa kun opetusresurssit eivät ole kohdallaan.
Tyypillinen totuus on se kun yksi erityisoppilas huutaa pää punaisena jotain mantraa, toinen hakkaa päätään pulpettiin ja kolmas juoksee ympyrää luokkahuoneessa.
Siinä kakofoniassa sitten se opetustilanteen ainoa pedagogisesti pätevä opettaja yrittää antaa akateemista opetusta kymmenelle normaalille tai lähes normaalille oppilaalle, joista korkeintaan kaksi kykenee älämölössä keskittymään opetukseen.
Luokkahuoneessa on toki yksi määräaikaisesti palkattu lukion suorittanut avustaja, joka ei oikein tiedä miten toimia mainitun kolmen erityisoppilaan villeyskohtauksien kanssa.
Aivan. Meinasin unohtaa mainita, että siitä luokasta noin puolet on S2 lapsia, jotka osaavat noin 10 suomen kielen sanaa, kyllä ja ei, yleensä ei ja sitten seitsemän kirosanaa.
Tämä on kuvaus mistä tahansa (paitsi bättrefolk ja steiner) Espoon tai Vantaan peruskoulun 1.-2. lka opetuspäivästä. Jokaisesta perkeleen opetuspäivästä - paitsi niistä viidestä päivästä lukuvuodessa kun ne ihanat erityislapset tai edes kaksi niistä sattuu olemaan flunssan tms. johdosta poissa koulusta.
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OPH tulee lakkauttaa ja sen tärkeimmät tehtävät tulee siirtää OKM organisaatioon.
Inkluusio, woke, dei, seta tms. hölynpöly ei kuulu peruskouluun. Ne eivät kuulu mihinkään.
Saa suorittaa. Pitää olla valmista mieluusti jo eilen.
1/Un fondo de inversión español ha perdido un 55% del dinero de sus clientes.
En 16 años.
Mientras los mercados subían un 400%.
Gestiona 678 MILLONES de euros.
Y lo peor: muchos de sus clientes ni saben que lo tienen.
Abro hilo 🧵
2/Kutxabank 0/100 Carteras FI (ISIN ES0113053005)
Valor liquidativo en 2010: 5,94€ Valor liquidativo hoy: 2,66€
Menos de la mitad.
En el mayor ciclo alcista de la historia de los mercados financieros.
3/Desde 2016 solo UN año en positivo.
Uno.
2020: +0,26%.
Los otros nueve: rojo. Todo rojo.
Mientras la categoría ganaba. Mientras el índice ganaba. Mientras todo el mundo ganaba.
Ellos perdían.
È sempre istruttivo leggere i tre giornali di destra quando si verificano episodi che richiedono una presa di posizione sgradevole. Quando si trovano ad affrontare un corto circuito: cosa dicono dello scontro tra Trump e Leone?
Ecco qui cosa scrivono oggi (thread)
Il Giornale è la testata più apertamente schierata con Leone XIV. L’editoriale di Cerno è quasi una difesa d’ufficio: riconosce la “sapienza” della risposta di Prevost, ne ammira il garbo apostolico, e liquida Trump come “goffo e maleducato”.
Il titolo “L’ANTIPAPA” rovescia l’accusa su Trump.
Anche Stefano Zurlo (pag. 3) nel commento “Il giorno in cui Prevost si fece Papa” costruisce una narrazione quasi agiografica: Leone come uomo mite che scopre la propria forza profetica davanti alla prepotenza del potere.
The five-second epistemology of which side Pakistan is on.
Day 46. Which side is Pakistan on. Pakistan is on every side at the same time and getting paid by all of them. Pakistan is the mediator in Islamabad. Pakistan is the bodyguard in Riyadh. Pakistan is the customer in Tehran. Pakistan is the truck driver in Karachi waiting for the diesel that is coming from the country whose foreign minister is in Pakistan’s guest room.
Pakistan deployed the air force to Saudi Arabia this morning. Pakistan, which shares a border with Iran. Pakistan, which buys diesel from Iran. Pakistan, which started rationing diesel on day eight because the tanker did not arrive at Karachi because the tanker was waiting at Larak for a permit denominated in rial. Pakistan, which is hosting the peace talks in Islamabad and gave Araghchi the escort to the airport. Pakistan, which signed a defense pact with Saudi Arabia in September of 2025 saying an attack on one is an attack on both. Pakistan, which now has to be serious about protecting Saudi Arabia because the director of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies said the word serious to Sputnik with a straight face. Serious is the verb of a country that is hosting the negotiation and arming the host of the negotiation against the guest of the negotiation while buying the guest’s diesel and rationing it because the guest has not delivered yet because the host is sitting in the room next door.
The Pakistani pilot in the cockpit on the Saudi tarmac is defending the cousin in Riyadh who is wiring money to the village in Punjab where the diesel from the Iranian boat is going to be in the truck on Tuesday because Pakistan walked Araghchi to the gate the day before. Same pilot. Same cousin. Same diesel. Same village. Same negotiator. Three flags. One pipeline. Zero stop functions.
Meanwhile three Iran-linked tankers sailed through the Strait this morning. Rich Starry. Murlikishan. Peace Gulf. The names read like a children’s book and the cargo reads like the obituary of the petrodollar. Rich Starry is on the way out. Murlikishan is going to Iraq, formerly known as MKA, changed its name the way a guy on the run changes his name, has carried Russian and Iranian crude under both spellings and a few it has not told anybody about yet. Peace Gulf is going to Hamriyah. Hamriyah is in the UAE. The UAE is the country whose monarchy bombed an Iranian refinery six days ago and whose ceasefire lasted eleven hours and whose Tsar Nicholas of the Persian Gulf is now signing for delivery from a Panamanian-flagged Iranian-linked vessel named Peace Gulf at a port he owns across the water from the refinery he bombed.
Peace Gulf. Read it again. The Iranian-linked tanker is named Peace Gulf and is sailing peace into the gulf that is on fire. The IRGC names the boats and the names are the manifest and the manifest is on the bow of every hull that just cleared the Strait this morning while shipping data tracked the whole thing in real time and the empire’s blockade applied to none of them because the destination was not Iran. The destination was the empire’s friend. The empire wrote a blockade with a hole in it and the hole is shaped like an Al Romanov port and Peace Gulf is sailing through the hole right now under a flag from a country in Central America carrying crude to the port owned by the monarchy that bombed the terminal it loaded out of.
Iran loads the boat. The UAE buys the boat. The UAE bombed the terminal the boat loaded out of. Pakistan flies jets to Saudi Arabia to defend the gulf the boat is sailing across. Pakistan also walks Iran’s foreign minister to the door of the room where the empire is supposed to be negotiating. Iran sells diesel to Pakistan. Pakistan rations the diesel because the diesel is waiting on a permit in rial issued by the same Iranian government Pakistan is mediating for. The empire wrote the blockade. The empire’s friend is the buyer. The empire’s mediator is the customer. The empire’s enemy is the seller. Every node pays every other node. The only node collecting from all four is in Tehran and the node in Tehran is named Ghalibaf and Ghalibaf is on his fourth coffee.
The empire built the most expensive supply chain in the history of supply chains and then drilled a hole in it for its friends and then watched its enemy walk through the hole carrying the supply and watched its mediator fly the air force across the Gulf to defend the friend that is buying from the enemy the mediator is mediating for. The boat is named Peace Gulf. The empire is in the chat reading the manifest.
Day 46. Pakistan is on every side. Three tankers through. Peace Gulf docking at Hamriyah. Araghchi already at the gate. Day 46.
ذكية، كاملة. هوشمند، کامل.