Recent well liked threads
Brest, Belarus. The riot police have started using gas and brutally detaining peaceful protesters.
Police are chasing protesters and detaining them one by one.
Brutal detentions continue. Police detain and beat random people in Minsk downtown. People are trying to run away. More than one hundred detainees identified already. The real number can be much higher.
Op #EqualPayDay zong het weer rond: vrouwen verdienen veel minder dan mannen en zijn ondervertegenwoordigd in hoge posities. Maar klopt dat allemaal wel? En zo ja, wat is hier aan de hand? Een (lange) draad met cijfers.
De cijfers over het verschil in inkomens zijn duidelijk. Het inkomen van werkende vrouwen is 38% lager dan van werkende mannen en vrouwen werken ook nog eens minder vaak. Ze zijn dus minder economisch zelfstandig en financieel kwetsbaar bij een scheiding cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2…
Dat vrouwen minder verdienen komt vooral doordat ze minder uren werken en banen hebben in bedrijfstakken met minder hoge lonen. Ook geven ze minder vaak leiding over anderen, hebben minder ervaring, enzovoort.
我室友是中国人，我们大学一个寝室的。开学才三周，他的博士录取通知就被撤了。斯坦福 AI 实验室，全奖，梦校，一下没了。官方理由是签证问题，但我们心里都清楚，说白了就是名额政治那一套。
周四早上我在客厅沙发上找到他，笔记本屏幕还亮着，一看就是整晚没睡。
我问：“你干嘛呢？”
他说：“搭点儿东西。”
他把屏幕转过来给我看一个叫 PolyCop 的终端界面。上面显示着仓位还在跑，钱包自己在自动跟单。
他告诉我，700 美元的本金，9 周滚成了 67800 刀。
“这怎么做到的？”
他说的那句话，我到现在都记得特别清楚。
“美国人老想着去预测未来会发生什么。但中国学生不一样，我们会先找出来‘谁已经知道答案了’，然后赶在所有人反应过来之前，直接照着抄。”
然后他打开了一个叫 Deep Wallet Analysis 的东西，说这玩意儿每个小时会扫描 14000 个 Polymarket 上面的钱包。
他给我看一个地址：0xeebde。总盈利 9 万 4 千美元，在天气类合约上的胜率高达 91%，但在政治类上只有可怜的 14%。
他说：“你看，很多人傻乎乎地全盘复制这个钱包，结果跟着它在政治上面亏钱。我只复制它做的天气那一部分，所以我能赢。”
接着他又翻出来另一个地址：0x2d8b4。赚了 8 万 7 千刀，其中 94% 的利润都来自加密市场预测，体育类的胜率才 8%。
他说：“系统会自动只复制它做加密的那部分，体育的一概不跟。散户不懂啊，什么都复制，亏得一塌糊涂。”
他的后台还有个 Priority Mode 一直在运转。只要那些被标记的盈利钱包一下单，有个叫 PolyCop 的工具两秒钟内就能镜像跟进去。这时候普通散户那边网页可能还没刷出来呢。
他跟我说：“斯坦福那些搞研究的，想搭这套东西估计得花上半年。我用 Claude 配合着搞，一个周末就弄出来了。”
然后他拉出持仓列表让我看，里面清楚写着：
飓风路径预测，复制 0xeebde 的天气 → 赚了 2680 刀
美联储会议结果，复制 0xa91f2 的宏观 → 赚了 2340 刀
BTC 突破 12 万，复制 0x2d8b4 的加密 → 赚了 3180 刀
科技收购获批，复制 0xd0d60 → 赚了 2140 刀
总共 243 笔交易，胜率 77%，每笔平均持仓时间也就两天半左右。
他还给我看了个资金周转速度的对比数据：那些顶级钱包，每个月本金能周转 51 次，而普通散户钱包一个月才周转 1 次。同样 500 美元本金，在高手手里能滚动成 2.55 万美元的活跃资金。
而且他那个系统每六个小时会自动检测市场状态，是牛市、熊市还是震荡市，然后自己切换对应的跟单策略，完全不用人管。
当时让我最受冲击的一点是：他其实并不比斯坦福那些博士生聪明。他做的事情非常简单——找到那些已经赢了的人，然后只复制他们真正赚钱的那部分操作。
后来他告诉我，昨晚他已经开始部署自己的小资金测试了，就存了 50 刀进去，第一笔过滤后的跟单应该 24 小时内就会执行。链接我顺手扔评论区了。
昨天斯坦福那边又发了封邮件过来，说什么“我们正在重新审核你的情况”。他连打开都没打开。
他最后说了一句：“读博教你的是花五年时间自己去想。而用 PolyCop，我只花了 48 小时就学会了怎么抄。”
他跟他爸妈那边还是说自己在 Gap Year，至于账户里那 67800 刀的事儿，一个字都没提。他爸妈还以为他现在因为录取的事在家难受着呢。
而我后来知道的是，他已经在搭第二个机器人了。
周四早上我在客厅沙发上找到他，笔记本屏幕还亮着，一看就是整晚没睡。
我问：“你干嘛呢？”
他说：“搭点儿东西。”
他把屏幕转过来给我看一个叫 PolyCop 的终端界面。上面显示着仓位还在跑，钱包自己在自动跟单。
他告诉我，700 美元的本金，9 周滚成了 67800 刀。
“这怎么做到的？”
他说的那句话，我到现在都记得特别清楚。
“美国人老想着去预测未来会发生什么。但中国学生不一样，我们会先找出来‘谁已经知道答案了’，然后赶在所有人反应过来之前，直接照着抄。”
然后他打开了一个叫 Deep Wallet Analysis 的东西，说这玩意儿每个小时会扫描 14000 个 Polymarket 上面的钱包。
他给我看一个地址：0xeebde。总盈利 9 万 4 千美元，在天气类合约上的胜率高达 91%，但在政治类上只有可怜的 14%。
他说：“你看，很多人傻乎乎地全盘复制这个钱包，结果跟着它在政治上面亏钱。我只复制它做的天气那一部分，所以我能赢。”
接着他又翻出来另一个地址：0x2d8b4。赚了 8 万 7 千刀，其中 94% 的利润都来自加密市场预测，体育类的胜率才 8%。
他说：“系统会自动只复制它做加密的那部分，体育的一概不跟。散户不懂啊，什么都复制，亏得一塌糊涂。”
他的后台还有个 Priority Mode 一直在运转。只要那些被标记的盈利钱包一下单，有个叫 PolyCop 的工具两秒钟内就能镜像跟进去。这时候普通散户那边网页可能还没刷出来呢。
他跟我说：“斯坦福那些搞研究的，想搭这套东西估计得花上半年。我用 Claude 配合着搞，一个周末就弄出来了。”
然后他拉出持仓列表让我看，里面清楚写着：
飓风路径预测，复制 0xeebde 的天气 → 赚了 2680 刀
美联储会议结果，复制 0xa91f2 的宏观 → 赚了 2340 刀
BTC 突破 12 万，复制 0x2d8b4 的加密 → 赚了 3180 刀
科技收购获批，复制 0xd0d60 → 赚了 2140 刀
总共 243 笔交易，胜率 77%，每笔平均持仓时间也就两天半左右。
他还给我看了个资金周转速度的对比数据：那些顶级钱包，每个月本金能周转 51 次，而普通散户钱包一个月才周转 1 次。同样 500 美元本金，在高手手里能滚动成 2.55 万美元的活跃资金。
而且他那个系统每六个小时会自动检测市场状态，是牛市、熊市还是震荡市，然后自己切换对应的跟单策略，完全不用人管。
当时让我最受冲击的一点是：他其实并不比斯坦福那些博士生聪明。他做的事情非常简单——找到那些已经赢了的人，然后只复制他们真正赚钱的那部分操作。
后来他告诉我，昨晚他已经开始部署自己的小资金测试了，就存了 50 刀进去，第一笔过滤后的跟单应该 24 小时内就会执行。链接我顺手扔评论区了。
昨天斯坦福那边又发了封邮件过来，说什么“我们正在重新审核你的情况”。他连打开都没打开。
他最后说了一句：“读博教你的是花五年时间自己去想。而用 PolyCop，我只花了 48 小时就学会了怎么抄。”
他跟他爸妈那边还是说自己在 Gap Year，至于账户里那 67800 刀的事儿，一个字都没提。他爸妈还以为他现在因为录取的事在家难受着呢。
而我后来知道的是，他已经在搭第二个机器人了。
♻️Polymarket 官网入口：polymarket.com/zh/?r=PM888
👉如果想在Polymarket上使用跟单交易，我推荐这个：t.me/PolyCop_BOT?st…
🗣️想玩或正在玩PolyMarket的一起来交流：t.me/PM13168
👉如果想在Polymarket上使用跟单交易，我推荐这个：t.me/PolyCop_BOT?st…
🗣️想玩或正在玩PolyMarket的一起来交流：t.me/PM13168
2026年的超级赛道，普通人最大的机会—— Polymarket预测市场！
和3年前的memecoin赛道一样，现在还是早期，看懂的人已经在冲了！
现在注册还不晚，扎进市场用心研究！
👉Polymarket官网：polymarket.com/zh/?r=PM888
（VPN的国家选日本或香港即可）
👉加入我的PolyMarket电报群：t.me/PM13168
👉Polymarket官方跟单机器人： t.me/PolyCop_BOT?st…
和3年前的memecoin赛道一样，现在还是早期，看懂的人已经在冲了！
现在注册还不晚，扎进市场用心研究！
👉Polymarket官网：polymarket.com/zh/?r=PM888
（VPN的国家选日本或香港即可）
👉加入我的PolyMarket电报群：t.me/PM13168
👉Polymarket官方跟单机器人： t.me/PolyCop_BOT?st…
You're stuck because you've never actually met yourself.
Here are 25 SOLO challenges that force you to find out who you actually are: 🧵
Here are 25 SOLO challenges that force you to find out who you actually are: 🧵
1. Sit in a silent room for 6 hours with no phone and write every thought you cannot escape
2. Delete every contact except one and watch how quickly your identity collapses
3. Spend an entire day without speaking and notice how much of your personality was just performance
4. Write down your 5 biggest goals and then ask yourself who benefits if you fail
2. Delete every contact except one and watch how quickly your identity collapses
3. Spend an entire day without speaking and notice how much of your personality was just performance
4. Write down your 5 biggest goals and then ask yourself who benefits if you fail
5. Eat the same basic meal for 3 days and see if your discipline survives boredom
6. Turn off all notifications for a week and observe which parts of your life disappear
7. Walk alone for 3 hours with no music and meet the version of you that you keep distracting
8. Read your old messages and notice how often you shrink to be liked
9. Say no to every request for 48 hours and feel the guilt that controls your decisions
6. Turn off all notifications for a week and observe which parts of your life disappear
7. Walk alone for 3 hours with no music and meet the version of you that you keep distracting
8. Read your old messages and notice how often you shrink to be liked
9. Say no to every request for 48 hours and feel the guilt that controls your decisions
The oil crisis is worse than anything in modern history.
Nobody is panicking.
That’s the problem. 🧵
Nobody is panicking.
That’s the problem. 🧵
The world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day.
Right now, 15–20 million of them are missing.
That gap is larger than the entire daily oil consumption of the United States.
And you haven’t felt it yet. Here’s why 👇
Right now, 15–20 million of them are missing.
That gap is larger than the entire daily oil consumption of the United States.
And you haven’t felt it yet. Here’s why 👇
Every country has been burning through emergency stockpiles to mask the shortage.
JP Morgan & Kpler data shows the last Gulf shipments reached their destinations between April 8–19.
That window is now closed.
The buffer is gone. The real shock starts now.
JP Morgan & Kpler data shows the last Gulf shipments reached their destinations between April 8–19.
That window is now closed.
The buffer is gone. The real shock starts now.
With the US now on the verge of achieving pure idiocracy and a brand new form of government that can only be described in terms of coconuts and bananas, I’ve decided to expand my guide to what is arguably the most cartoonishly stupid administration known to modern man. 🧵
Married to an obscenely rich man whose children were already having children by the time she was born, and often seen wearing oversized crosses to differentiate herself from her North Korean counterpart, Karoline Leavitt is currently serving as White House Press Secretary.
Famous for having gone bald and aged some 37 years by the time he entered high school, point at which he had already picked up what was to be a lifelong passion for racial purity, Stephen "Reichskommissar" Miller is the current White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy.
It is my birthday today, so I allowed myself a completely self‑indulgent data analysis.
I have had the “what is the hardest endurance sport” argument in so many changing rooms and cafes that I lost count years ago. Swimming feels psychologically hardest for me. Cycling feels highest risk. Running just feels brutally honest.
So this time I tried to answer it with data.
I pulled nearly a million sessions across nine endurance sports and looked at what each one does to the cardiovascular system, both per minute and per session.
Here is what I found:
- Every sport has a distinct heart‑rate “fingerprint”. Running is a tight, right‑shifted bell around 145 bpm. Walking and ski touring sit broader and lower. Downhill skiing is all peaks and troughs.
- Running really is hard on the heart. It has the highest session average, peak HR, and sustained intensity ratio.
- Walking’s “high” intensity ratio is a statistical trick. Low average, low peak, very flat sessions that only look hard on paper.
- Downhill skiing has the biggest swings. Peaks rival outdoor cycling, but average HR sits near walking. That 47 bpm gap matches the feeling of short bursts and a lot of standing around.
- Cross‑country skiing behaves like running at the top end and like cycling on average. Huge peaks, long gliding recoveries.
- Indoor cycling is the purest steady effort after running. The sustained profile is similar in relative terms, but the absolute load is lower because seated cycling simply costs less than weight‑bearing running.
Within the same person, running still wins. Among 1,480 people who both run and ride outside, 93% hit a higher fraction of their personal max HR when they run. Same body, same heart, different biomechanical demand.
Then I changed the question. Because intensity is only part of the story and I recently cycled for 35 hours at a low Heart Rate, but it certainly felt pretty hard!
Do you want to reward time on feet, or time in the red zone?
Full research below.
I have had the “what is the hardest endurance sport” argument in so many changing rooms and cafes that I lost count years ago. Swimming feels psychologically hardest for me. Cycling feels highest risk. Running just feels brutally honest.
So this time I tried to answer it with data.
I pulled nearly a million sessions across nine endurance sports and looked at what each one does to the cardiovascular system, both per minute and per session.
Here is what I found:
- Every sport has a distinct heart‑rate “fingerprint”. Running is a tight, right‑shifted bell around 145 bpm. Walking and ski touring sit broader and lower. Downhill skiing is all peaks and troughs.
- Running really is hard on the heart. It has the highest session average, peak HR, and sustained intensity ratio.
- Walking’s “high” intensity ratio is a statistical trick. Low average, low peak, very flat sessions that only look hard on paper.
- Downhill skiing has the biggest swings. Peaks rival outdoor cycling, but average HR sits near walking. That 47 bpm gap matches the feeling of short bursts and a lot of standing around.
- Cross‑country skiing behaves like running at the top end and like cycling on average. Huge peaks, long gliding recoveries.
- Indoor cycling is the purest steady effort after running. The sustained profile is similar in relative terms, but the absolute load is lower because seated cycling simply costs less than weight‑bearing running.
Within the same person, running still wins. Among 1,480 people who both run and ride outside, 93% hit a higher fraction of their personal max HR when they run. Same body, same heart, different biomechanical demand.
Then I changed the question. Because intensity is only part of the story and I recently cycled for 35 hours at a low Heart Rate, but it certainly felt pretty hard!
Do you want to reward time on feet, or time in the red zone?
Full research below.
