Recent well liked threads
1/X
$ES_F $NQ_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $TNX $TLT $GLD #BTC #BitcoinETF
Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan
Aug 30, 2023 10:46 AM
(Late post, busy trading yesterday)
EUROPE SESSION BRIEF:
LOOKING FOR A SHORT TERM TROUGH IN THE 10YR YIELD AND DXY; ONCE WE HAVE IT IDENTIFIED, WE OFFLOAD ALL POSITIONING THAT ARE IN PROFIT, AND THOSE AT RISK, IF THE 10YR YIELD AND DXY BACK-UP HIGHER
The old Fed Aggregate Model (weekly series, out of sample since May 2018) continues to suggest that the SPX should also be trending higher until the 3rd week of September.
However, there could be a mid-point kink lower befoe then, so we want to lighten up on long risk asset positioning sometime during the first week of September.
$ES_F $NQ_F $SPY $QQQ $IWM $TNX $TLT $GLD #BTC #BitcoinETF
Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan
Aug 30, 2023 10:46 AM
(Late post, busy trading yesterday)
EUROPE SESSION BRIEF:
LOOKING FOR A SHORT TERM TROUGH IN THE 10YR YIELD AND DXY; ONCE WE HAVE IT IDENTIFIED, WE OFFLOAD ALL POSITIONING THAT ARE IN PROFIT, AND THOSE AT RISK, IF THE 10YR YIELD AND DXY BACK-UP HIGHER
The old Fed Aggregate Model (weekly series, out of sample since May 2018) continues to suggest that the SPX should also be trending higher until the 3rd week of September.
However, there could be a mid-point kink lower befoe then, so we want to lighten up on long risk asset positioning sometime during the first week of September.
Robert P. Balan
Aug 30, 2023 4:07 PM
This is the EWP schemata which are on the lookout for -- a final dip, followed by a significant retracement of the Yield decline since 27 August, possibly back to 4.17 - 4.175.
Aug 30, 2023 4:07 PM
This is the EWP schemata which are on the lookout for -- a final dip, followed by a significant retracement of the Yield decline since 27 August, possibly back to 4.17 - 4.175.
3/X
Robert P. Balan
Aug 30, 2023 4:10 PM
This is the corresponding EWP schemata, which may apply to the DXY. We could be looking at 103.75/78 before it peaks. Not a great lot, but that may change, depending on some macro data impacting the markets before the week ends.
Robert P. Balan
Aug 30, 2023 4:10 PM
This is the corresponding EWP schemata, which may apply to the DXY. We could be looking at 103.75/78 before it peaks. Not a great lot, but that may change, depending on some macro data impacting the markets before the week ends.
#ثريد
📜🗡️ “100 معركة لقبيلة حرب ضد الدولة العثمانية” 🏇🔥
كل يوم سيتم نشر معركة لمدة 100 يوم تحت هذي التغريدة
#قبيلة_حرب
📜🗡️ “100 معركة لقبيلة حرب ضد الدولة العثمانية” 🏇🔥
كل يوم سيتم نشر معركة لمدة 100 يوم تحت هذي التغريدة
#قبيلة_حرب
(1)
بعد سقوط الدرعيه ومقتل الامام زالت شوكة الوهابيين باستثناء #قبيلة_حرب التي اوقدت نار الثورة وطردت القائد تركجه بلمز الى اليمن
المؤرخ الفرنسي لويس سيديو 🇫🇷
بعد سقوط الدرعيه ومقتل الامام زالت شوكة الوهابيين باستثناء #قبيلة_حرب التي اوقدت نار الثورة وطردت القائد تركجه بلمز الى اليمن
المؤرخ الفرنسي لويس سيديو 🇫🇷
(2)
عندما علم إمام اليمن السلطان المهدي بعزم نصوح باشا والي الشام على غزوه، استنجد بصديقه الشيخ مبارك بن مضيان، فهبّ لنجدته وألحق هزيمة ساحقة بالعثمانيين، قُتل فيها نصوح باشا وأُبيد جيشه
المصادر 📜:
المؤرخ العلامة محمد بن اسماعيل الكبسي 🇾🇪
المؤرخ محمد الشهاري 🇾🇪
عندما علم إمام اليمن السلطان المهدي بعزم نصوح باشا والي الشام على غزوه، استنجد بصديقه الشيخ مبارك بن مضيان، فهبّ لنجدته وألحق هزيمة ساحقة بالعثمانيين، قُتل فيها نصوح باشا وأُبيد جيشه
المصادر 📜:
المؤرخ العلامة محمد بن اسماعيل الكبسي 🇾🇪
المؤرخ محمد الشهاري 🇾🇪
Utas panjang Operasi "Midnight Hammer" - bagaimana proses serangan jarak jauh oleh Angkatan Udara Amerika Serikat (USAF) terhadap Iran, dan memahami konsep Global Forward Presence, yang membuat militer Amerika bisa hadir dengan cepat di semua konflik yang ada di seluruh dunia
1. 13 Juni 2025, menjadi tanggal penanda dimulainya perang Iran-Israel, yang dimulai oleh serangkaian serangan udara Israel ke kota-kota Iran, termasuk ibu kota Tehran, yang segera dibalas oleh Iran dengan serangan rudal balistik jarak menengah.
2. 3 hari kemudian, meski awalnya menolak terlibat secara langsung, Amerika terlihat mulai melakukan mobilisasi kekuatan udara, dengan melakukan reposisi & rotasi puluhan pesawat tanker Boeing KC-135 & Boeing KC-46 dari CONUS/daratan 🇺🇸, ke berbagai pangkalan udara di Eropa.
🔴🔎 | La vidéo de Jénine était manipulée. Hier, plusieurs médias arabes ont diffusé une séquence présentée comme « l’exécution de deux Palestiniens innocents » par Tsahal à Jénine, un bastion du terrorisme en Judée-Samarie. L’analyse complète change totalement la version présentée.
🎬 Deux suspects sortent d’un bâtiment encerclé après plusieurs heures de siège. Les forces israéliennes menaient une opération d’arrestation contre deux individus impliqués dans des activités terroristes. Les images diffusées avaient été tronquées, éditées, sorties de leur contexte, créant une lecture biaisée.
❌Contrairement aux affirmations largement relayées, NON, les soldats israéliens n’ont pas abattu « froidement » deux Palestiniens innocents.
▪️Dans la version non coupée, l’un des suspects abaisse sa main vers sa ceinture, geste classique de préparation à l’extraction d’arme.
L’autre se place devant lui, masquant volontairement l’angle de vue — une tactique connue pour réduire la visibilité des soldats.
▪️Les deux hommes se replient ensuite sous le rideau métallique, annulant toute reddition. À cet instant, les soldats perçoivent une menace directe et ouvrent le feu conformément aux règles d’engagement.
▪️La coupure à 00:26 efface volontairement le moment clé où les suspects tentent d’extraire leurs armes. Plusieurs analystes, dont Gazawood, confirment l’altération.
💬 Les soldats affirment avoir agi face à un risque immédiat : suspects armés, mouvements vers la ceinture, perte de visibilité. En zone de combat, ces gestes sont considérés comme une menace rouge.
Présenter ces hommes comme des « innocents exécutés » sans montrer les images censurées revient à diffuser une version militante et factuellement incomplète.
📌Une enquête interne est en cours, mais les données opérationnelles indiquent que les soldats ont réagi comme le prévoient les protocoles dans un secteur où des attaques simulant la reddition ont déjà coûté la vie à des soldats israéliens.
🎬 Merci à @GAZAWOOD1 pour son travail de démystification.
🔗 #SWNews #FactChecking #Jenin #FDI #Israel #Desinfo #Terrorisme #MiddleEastNews #Security
🎬 Deux suspects sortent d’un bâtiment encerclé après plusieurs heures de siège. Les forces israéliennes menaient une opération d’arrestation contre deux individus impliqués dans des activités terroristes. Les images diffusées avaient été tronquées, éditées, sorties de leur contexte, créant une lecture biaisée.
❌Contrairement aux affirmations largement relayées, NON, les soldats israéliens n’ont pas abattu « froidement » deux Palestiniens innocents.
▪️Dans la version non coupée, l’un des suspects abaisse sa main vers sa ceinture, geste classique de préparation à l’extraction d’arme.
L’autre se place devant lui, masquant volontairement l’angle de vue — une tactique connue pour réduire la visibilité des soldats.
▪️Les deux hommes se replient ensuite sous le rideau métallique, annulant toute reddition. À cet instant, les soldats perçoivent une menace directe et ouvrent le feu conformément aux règles d’engagement.
▪️La coupure à 00:26 efface volontairement le moment clé où les suspects tentent d’extraire leurs armes. Plusieurs analystes, dont Gazawood, confirment l’altération.
💬 Les soldats affirment avoir agi face à un risque immédiat : suspects armés, mouvements vers la ceinture, perte de visibilité. En zone de combat, ces gestes sont considérés comme une menace rouge.
Présenter ces hommes comme des « innocents exécutés » sans montrer les images censurées revient à diffuser une version militante et factuellement incomplète.
📌Une enquête interne est en cours, mais les données opérationnelles indiquent que les soldats ont réagi comme le prévoient les protocoles dans un secteur où des attaques simulant la reddition ont déjà coûté la vie à des soldats israéliens.
🎬 Merci à @GAZAWOOD1 pour son travail de démystification.
🔗 #SWNews #FactChecking #Jenin #FDI #Israel #Desinfo #Terrorisme #MiddleEastNews #Security
Voici les palestiniens présentés comme de gentils travailleurs innocents.
Affaire classée ⤵️⤵️⤵️
The joke has always been on the American people. Especially his followers. I have documented proof this is true. Please read and repost every post of this thread. This is only a tiny piece of what I have proven.
This was posted by Konstantin Rykov on the same day as the picture above was taken by Tass, a Russian state news agency. This meeting in the Oval Office was the day after Trump fired Comey for investigating his ties to Russia. US news was not allowed into the meeting.
This was posted by Konstantin Rykov on his Facebook page on November 12, 2016, nearly four years to the day after the reelection of Obama in 2012. Read every single word of both pages. Twice.
Birth Rate Collapse & Economic Utility of a Birth
This is really weird, but I suspect it’s overlooked in socio-economic research literature.
Below I present 2 zones on the same chart.
The pink zone on the left chart shows the useful economic life of 1 human birth in the year 1851.
The green zone on the right chart shows the useful economic life of 1 human birth in 2011.
Now because of medical advances, sanitation, public health, etc, etc we have significantly improved life expectancy and reduced infant mortality. This means that a birth in 2011 has vastly more hours of economic output than a birth in 1851. Historic mortality rates really cut down the expected economic lifespan of a birth, but how much?
The pink area on left = 40 years * 40% + ( 40 years * 30% )/2
= 22 years of economic work per birth (yikes!)
The green area on the right = 51 years * 98%
= 50 years of economic work per birth.
These numbers are massively different.
The expected working lifespan of a human at birth has increased by 127% over 160 years. Even though we work to approximately the same age.
This means that in economic terms 1 birth in 2011 is worth 2.27 births in 1851. How does that gain in economic utility per birth compare to the collapse in volume of births?
Today there are 2.31 births per woman worldwide.
In 1850 there were 5.82 births per woman.
5.82/2.31=2.52
So we have 2.27x gain in utility per birth and a 2.52x fall in the volume of births? These ratios are within 10% of one another, they almost perfectly track inversely to give a fixed amount of ‘human economic utility birthed per woman’.
I find this to be a staggering coincidence.
Is the collapsing birth rate just supply and demand? Did longevity gains simply create a temporary oversupply of units of human utility?
The population crisis might just be market forces. Or rather, it’s just macro-ecology.
This is really weird, but I suspect it’s overlooked in socio-economic research literature.
Below I present 2 zones on the same chart.
The pink zone on the left chart shows the useful economic life of 1 human birth in the year 1851.
The green zone on the right chart shows the useful economic life of 1 human birth in 2011.
Now because of medical advances, sanitation, public health, etc, etc we have significantly improved life expectancy and reduced infant mortality. This means that a birth in 2011 has vastly more hours of economic output than a birth in 1851. Historic mortality rates really cut down the expected economic lifespan of a birth, but how much?
The pink area on left = 40 years * 40% + ( 40 years * 30% )/2
= 22 years of economic work per birth (yikes!)
The green area on the right = 51 years * 98%
= 50 years of economic work per birth.
These numbers are massively different.
The expected working lifespan of a human at birth has increased by 127% over 160 years. Even though we work to approximately the same age.
This means that in economic terms 1 birth in 2011 is worth 2.27 births in 1851. How does that gain in economic utility per birth compare to the collapse in volume of births?
Today there are 2.31 births per woman worldwide.
In 1850 there were 5.82 births per woman.
5.82/2.31=2.52
So we have 2.27x gain in utility per birth and a 2.52x fall in the volume of births? These ratios are within 10% of one another, they almost perfectly track inversely to give a fixed amount of ‘human economic utility birthed per woman’.
I find this to be a staggering coincidence.
Is the collapsing birth rate just supply and demand? Did longevity gains simply create a temporary oversupply of units of human utility?
The population crisis might just be market forces. Or rather, it’s just macro-ecology.
Both areas on the same chart for comparison.
Pretty wild really.
Pretty wild really.
Your feet can reveal serious warning signs…
Not just about your liver, but your entire body.
Here are the 9 most important: 🧵
Not just about your liver, but your entire body.
Here are the 9 most important: 🧵
Your feet are the farthest point from your heart.
This means they receive the least oxygen, nutrients, and blood flow.
When something goes wrong inside your body, your feet are often the first place it shows.
Here’s what to watch for:
This means they receive the least oxygen, nutrients, and blood flow.
When something goes wrong inside your body, your feet are often the first place it shows.
Here’s what to watch for:
1/ Burning, tingling, or numb feet?
This is often an early sign of peripheral neuropathy, caused by a vitamin B1 deficiency.
Sugar and alcohol drain your B1 levels fast.
To restore nerve function, use benfotiamine, a form of B1 that actually reaches your nerves.
This is often an early sign of peripheral neuropathy, caused by a vitamin B1 deficiency.
Sugar and alcohol drain your B1 levels fast.
To restore nerve function, use benfotiamine, a form of B1 that actually reaches your nerves.
1/ The Wall Street Journal reports that the main focus of the US-Russia peace talks is to get commercial advantage for American companies, and personal benefits for individuals linked to the Trump Administration. European officials are said to be shocked by the plans. ⬇️
2/ According to the WSJ, talks between Trump's golfing friend Steve Witkoff, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev have bypassed the US national security and diplomatic apparatuses to focus on economic benefits for well-connected American companies.
3/ The paper reports that "a cast of businessmen close to the Trump administration have been looking to position themselves as new economic links between the U.S. and Russia." Friends of the Trump family and Trump donors are working on lucrative deals with Russian companies.
CIA funded Christian Missionaries In India 🧵
Dear Jokers of Anti Christian Tracker watch
Gone are the days of free pass into India for doing anything and everything.
Dear Jokers of Anti Christian Tracker watch
Gone are the days of free pass into India for doing anything and everything.
1. Franklin Graham is the President and CEO, Billy Graham Evangelistic Association and 4th son of Billy Graham ( Founder of Billy Graham Evangelistic Association, Christian missionary organization based out of the US) and who along with World Vision founder Bob Peirce ran limitless crusades in India during The Nehru and Indira Gandhi regimes with impunity to convert million of Hindus in South India and North East India into Christianity.
@UnSubtleDesi has covered their deeds in details in this report (opindia.com/2025/02/world-…)
You may want to see how US State department and USAID pumped in Millions to these Christian missionary organizations to ran shadow ops under the garb of missionary crusades and open proselytization across the globe, especially in India.
@UnSubtleDesi has covered their deeds in details in this report (opindia.com/2025/02/world-…)
You may want to see how US State department and USAID pumped in Millions to these Christian missionary organizations to ran shadow ops under the garb of missionary crusades and open proselytization across the globe, especially in India.
2. In the below letter written by Henry Kissinger, you can see how he led foundations for state sponsored cultural and Demographic explorations across the world to curtail the communist influence.
An actual truthful email circulating inside the FDA. Read and weep.
"It is horrifying to consider that the US vaccine regulation, including our actions, may have harmed more children than we saved."
This is good for Ukraine and moves us to Europe.
Yesterday, Yermak resigned. He and Zelenskyy were extremely close — they had lived and worked together from day one of the war inside the Kyiv compound.
"Talk about Zelenskyy, and you’re talking about Yermak" - Rybachuk for FT
1/
Yesterday, Yermak resigned. He and Zelenskyy were extremely close — they had lived and worked together from day one of the war inside the Kyiv compound.
"Talk about Zelenskyy, and you’re talking about Yermak" - Rybachuk for FT
1/
FT used my yesterday's comment that “I strongly support it. It would be the right decision, exactly what you do to get out of a crisis.”
Analyst Fesenko says that this is a “mini revolution” in Kyiv’s power structure & breaks a system where Yermak acted like an unelected VP.
2/
Analyst Fesenko says that this is a “mini revolution” in Kyiv’s power structure & breaks a system where Yermak acted like an unelected VP.
2/
Without Yermak, Zelenskyy’s influence may shrink at first. But former US ambassador William Taylor argues this move can strengthen Zelenskyy at home and abroad if he splits domestic and international roles. 3/
Lo advertimos cuando conocimos el caso de Avery Jackson. Padres con ínfulas de estrella, el movimiento transgénero y la industria farmacéutica crearon a «niños trans» famosos para validar su deIirio, narrativas y negocio. Por el camino, han arruinado la vida y salud de miles de niños y niñas perfectamente sanos/as que ahora están medicados de por vida.
Sobre este fenómeno, hablaba aquí hace 3 años.
Los «niños trans» son los padres vía @elespanolcomelespanol.com/opinion/tribun…
Los «niños trans» son los padres vía @elespanolcomelespanol.com/opinion/tribun…
I shan’t be satisfied until I see that gat damned Campbell’s Soup can put on a tiny hit and go kiss that fucking wall. I was crushed.
*hat