Recent well liked threads

Unfortunately for economists, we don't send people to prison randomly, so it's hard to infer what the impacts of incarceration are on long-term socioeconomic outcomes.

How can we?

Through judges and lawmakers being weird!🧵

Data from Ohio was used to estimate the impact of incarceration by using variation in judges' propensities to assign harsher or more lenient sentences.

Since cases were randomly assigned to different judges, we get to clearly see the impact of their conviction habits.

Data from North Carolina was used to estimate the impact of incarceration by leveraging how lawmakers have set up sentencing grids.

These work such that a given crime automatically earns someone a much higher or lower sentence depending on a variety of case characteristics.

This is the REAL Barack Hussein Obama II. He will go down as one of the most evil Manchurian candidates in history. You may think you know who this man is, I assure you don’t. A tool of the global elites, CIA and radical Islam, his goal was to destroy America.

There’s a reason his Washington, D.C. residence is a quick 5 minute walk from The Islamic Center of Washington D.C..

Despite Barack Obama’s public image as an advocate for change, his connections, including his mother's association with USAID and the Ford Foundation (both noted for CIA ties), indicate deep links to intelligence networks. His early life, including a mysterious year during college, aligns with a pattern of potential recruitment by intelligence agencies.

Community organizing was a key aspect of Obama’s career, and it overlaps with intelligence methods used for political destabilization. Historical examples, like the toppling of Yugoslavia, illustrate how similar strategies were employed by the U.S. in international politics.

A common claim is that 1970s-2000s China free traders wanted to keep China as a dependent low-wage sweatshop, but were foiled by the CCP. This is 100% backwards - the theory was that building up China economically and technologically would lead to political liberalization.

https://twitter.com/arctotherium42/status/2033235996649615428

The economic insanity of Maoism, even outside the well-known catastrophes (Great Leap Forward, Third Front, Cultural Revolution) and even in comparison to Soviet command economies, is underrated. Chinese workers under Mao were more likely to die than switch jobs.

The extraordinary success of post-Mao China has led some non-Communists to argue that Mao was actually good or even necessary. They are wrong. The sum total of Mao's contribution to modern Chinese development is that he ended the Chinese Civil War and built a modern state, which any winner of the Civil War, including both the KMT and Japan, would have done too.

General Christopher Cavoli, former SACEUR:

Ukraine has pulled off one of the most remarkable military feats of a century. It has managed, against the odds, to fight Russia to a standstill in its invasion and is turning around and regaining moderate amounts of territory. 1/12

Russia has been losing tremendous numbers of soldiers. A couple of months ago, for the first time since the beginning of the war, Russia began losing more soldiers in a month than it was able to field back onto the battlefield. 2/12

This is a bad direction for Russia.
The deep strikes that Ukraine has been able to perpetuate against the Russian Federation have really started to take a toll on the energy industry inside Russia. 3/12

🧵1/6 Ελληνική μουσική βιομηχανία ΧΧΧIV
Δεν υπάρχει αυτό το πράγμα με τη Gen Z και τα άτομα που αποδέχεται ως τραγουδιστές.
Κάτω μια σκηνή από:
1)Διαστροφικό πορνό (παρτούζα);
2)Βιασμό;
3)Συναυλία;

2/6 Βίντεο χωρίς αράπη,φαγητό χωρίς αλάτι.
Και επειδή είναι #Μαζωνάκης, παρε και 2-3 πινελιές από περίεργους συμβολισμούς όπως αγγελικά φτερά...

3/6 ή δήθεν απεικονίσεις του μυστικού δείπνου με μια πιο ανησυχητική εκδοχή.

Thread with excerpts from Charles Murray's "Losing Ground" (1984), a book on the failure of US welfare and social policy 1950-1980 to achieve its goals
threadreaderapp.com/thread/2068218…

About white conservatives
web.archive.org/web/2014021903…
web.archive.org/web/2020062112…
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Women=frigid lesbians
Baumeister R., Katanese KR, Vohs K.D 2001
researchgate.net/publication/23…
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22268980/
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1952814…
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threadreaderapp.com/thread/1870852…
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1749664…
incels.wiki/w/Sex_drive
threadreaderapp.com/thread/2053580…
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I've trained in hotel rooms, living rooms, and airport terminals for a decade.

A pair of dumbbells and 30 minutes is all you need.

Here's a complete full body workout to hit each muscle group in 30 minutes:

= Thread =

1. Split Squats

Muscles targeted:
▫️ Quads ▫️ Glutes ▫️ Hamstrings

Do them right:
▫️ Chest up, eyes forward
▫️ Slow eccentric — own the descent
▫️ Back knee stops just before the floor
▫️ Drive through the front heel to return

Knee issues? Move the front foot further forward.

2. RDLs

Muscles targeted:
▫️ Hamstrings ▫️ Glutes ▫️ Spinal erectors

Do them right:
▫️ Hinge at hips — push them back
▫️ Do NOT round the lower back
▫️ Feel the hamstring stretch — cue to return
▫️ Slow and controlled down

Think: closing a car door with your glutes.

After 16 years in the gym and trying every dumbbell exercise on earth, here are the only 9 you need:

1. Dumbbell bicep curl.

1. Dumbbell bicep curl.

Every bicep exercise is some kind of curl, so why not stick with the classic bicep dumbbell curl?

- Hold a dumbbell in each hand
- Keep your elbows close
- Curl the weights to your shoulders
- Squeeze your biceps the top
- Lower weights back down

2. Goblet squat.

If you could only do one squat with a dumbbell, make it the goblet squat.

- Hold one dumbbell at chest height
- Keep your chest up
- Sit your hips back and down
- Drive through your heels to stand
- Keep your core tight the whole time

Usually a lurker on here but dipping my toes briefly into the "k-shaped economy" discourse.

At PNC we track the debit & credit spending trends of a fixed cohort of ~4 million households.

Long story short: lower-income spending/balance sheet trends have been on a tear in 2026

First things first: the distribution of spending trends in our dataset is a lot closer to the official estimates from the BLS than others I've seen.

Top-third of households are responsible for ~56% of total spending in our data, closer to the ~55% figure from the CEX (for 2024)

Is it perfect? No... but it's pretty close.

One methodological difference is that the Consumer Expenditure Survey data from the BLS is based on before-tax income. We only see after tax income. I would think that would bias our estimates downward given progressive income taxes.

⬇️ 05.11.2025 - R. Gusarov, documentarista RT, presenta a Putin i risultati del progetto di RT.Doc e lo definisce un’arma strategica russa. Parla specificamente dell’Italia e dei “partigiani italiani” che hanno lavorato per portare i documentari RT in varie città italiane. 1/8

Il progetto consiste in festival con proiezioni di documentari RT e interventi di vari ospiti.
La prima edizione italiana (e in un paese NATO) si è svolta a Gorizia il 30-31 maggio 2025, organizzata da Vincenzo Lorusso, Vivere o Sopravvivere e con il supporto di RT.Doc.

Tra i relatori risulta Ekaterina Yakovleva, responsabile editoriale di RT.Doc e produttrice generale del festival. Sono arrivati anche i messaggi di Margarita Simonyan e Maria Zakharova. Tra i partecipanti italiani: Angelo D’Orsi ed Eliseo Bertolasi, rappresentante italiano del MIR. 2/8

Il fatto che abbia una facciata da festival indipendente non deve confondere.
Dentro il Cremlino si parla del progetto come di un’arma strategica russa, ed è RT.Doc a supportare gli eventi e deciderne il programma. Lorusso è il rappresentante italiano di RT.Doc.

Lui stesso, al festival di Bologna, usa le parole che vengono dette anche nel Cremlino: i documentari RT sono un’arma. ⬇️ 3/8

🚨 The Maldives is the biggest marketing scam in travel.

Agencies want you to believe it costs $10k+ for commissions. But the truth? You can experience the exact same paradise beaches for $35/night.

Here is how to hack the system. 👇

💸 It’s all about perception management. Look at this simple contrast:

• Resort overwater villa: $1,000+ / night
• Local island guesthouse: $40 / night

Same turquoise water, same white sand, same tropical fish. The only difference? In one, you are buying a brand. In the other, you are buying freedom.

✈️ First major mistake: Flight timing.

Going there in December or January is financial suicide. However, between October and November, flight prices drop up to 35% below the annual average. The weather is still pristine, but the crowds are non-existent.

Start tracking tickets exactly 9 weeks out. That’s when you hit the absolute bottom price.

Le mot « investigation » ne doit pas servir de décor aux insinuations. Le mot « lanceur d’alerte » n’est pas un permis de salir. Répéter une rumeur et laisser les personnes visées en payer le prix n’est ni informer ni protéger le sport. #Journalisme #Éthique #Sport #Preuves 👇

1/7 Une investigation sérieuse commence par une question, vérifie, recoupe, donne la parole aux personnes mises en cause et accepte de corriger ses erreurs. Elle ne part pas d’une conviction pour chercher ensuite de quoi l’habiller.

2/7 Une alerte n’autorise pas tout. Le rôle d’un lanceur d’alerte est de signaler des faits étayés et d’en assumer la portée, pas de diffuser une hypothèse, d’entretenir un soupçon et de laisser d’autres subir les conséquences.

Sebastian Lukomski <oesterreich@contact.citizengo.org>
Antworten an: german-at@citizengo.org

Ich habe gerade mit Rocío gesprochen

Grüß Gott und guten Tag, Erwin,

Ich packe gerade die Koffer, um mich (schon wieder) auf den Weg zu einem wichtigen Protest zu machen,

deshalb werde ich mich kurz fassen:

Vor ein paar Minuten hat mich meine Kollegin Rocío D’Angelo angerufen.

Ich wusste, dass sie in Panama war und bei der Generalversammlung der Organisation Amerikanischer Staaten für eine gute Sache kämpfte. Rocío ist zäh.

Richtig zäh. Sie lässt sich nicht so leicht unterkriegen. Aber selbst sie klang erschöpft.

Seit ihrer Ankunft hat man es ihr und dem ganzen Team schwer gemacht. Trotzdem hat sie sich durchgebissen und sich für das Leben und die Familie eingesetzt –

All'attenzione degli spettabili deputati e senatori di @FratellidItalia, in marito alla questione SAFE: si rende necessaria, credo, una riflessione profonda - accompagnata da uno scetticismo metodologico - sui fondi UE in generale...

open.substack.com/pub/claudiobor…

...e sulla correlazione tra l'adesione a questi ultimi e il restringimento regressivo delle prerogative parlamentari nonché degli spazi lasciati all'esercizio della sovranità nazionale. È opportuno leggere dati e attenersi a quelli, dal momento che i media ufficiali...

...appaiono alquanto reticenti (quando va bene) o poco informati (quando va male) sul punto.

Cordialmente,

MC

UA Aktivität auf der Kinburn-Halbinsel. Da im Video keine Soldaten zu sehen sind, wurde die Flagge evtl. aus der Luft platziert, nach RU Vorbild

Offenbar war die Meldung, dass die RU Kinburn geräumt hätten, verfrüht; abwarten, ob sie nicht auch hier wieder zurückkehren
1/3

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/2070083715787592038

Dass die UA dort aktiver werden ist auch an einem RU Luftangriff auf eine kleine Insel NO der Spitze der Halbinsel erkennbar (roter Kreis; Standort der UA Flagge blaues X)

Das wird absehbar mehr werden und sich nicht auf Kinburn beschränken
2/3

Der zuletzt intensivierte Beschuß des S-Ufers, erkennbar an vermehrten Bränden auf FIRMS (Vergleich 23.-25.6., re. ggü 16.-18.6.) dürfte die Vorbereitung weiterer Aktionen sein. Evtl zeigen die nachlassenden Brände auf dem N-Ufer die teilweise Ausschaltung der RU Ari an
3/3