Karena kerjaan udah mulai slowdown minggu ini, aku iseng buat model prediksi siapa yang bakal finish di 3 besar di Liga Showroom. Model yang aku gunain pakai model Monte Carlo, caranya aku running 10000 per member kemungkinan acak dengan batas varibel yang aku tentuin. Berikut adalah variabel yang aku gunakan.
Penjelasan variablenya =
Prob Live : Berapa persen sih member akan live lagi dalam sisa hari liga?
Prob Surge : Berapa persen sih member dapat lonjakan (surge) ketika lagi siaran langsung? ini diasumsikan dari selisih poin harian para member apakah ada lonjakan besar dari rata - rata biasanya.
Surge Min : Ini adalah lonjakan poin minimal, asumsinya paling mendekati 1, berarti di sepanjang historicnya tidak pernah ada lonjakan.
Surge Max : Ini adalah lonjakan poin maksimal, dilihat dari historicnya lagi, menjauh dari angka 1 berarti member tersebut bisa mendapat lebih dari 1 kali poin rata - rata yang dihasilkan.
We are starting a new, nonprofit alignment organization, ⊢ Sequent Research, bringing together researchers previously on UK AISI’s Alignment Team, Timaeus, and elsewhere to research how to align superintelligence. We are hiring! 🧵
Our full announcement post has more details. Please express interest if you’d like to join us!
Artificial superintelligence (ASI) may be developed in the next few years, and alignment is not on track! At a minimum, empirical research at AI labs is unlikely to deliver confidence, before training ASI, that alignment will go well.
If you grew up with Masters of the Universe, there’s a good chance the image you remember doesn’t come from the animated series, but from Earl Norem’s paintings.
Norem (1923–2015) was an American illustrator who came from the world of pulp magazines and Savage Sword of Conan covers. In the mid-1980s, he brought that same approach to Masters of the Universe, creating covers, posters, and promotional artwork for the official He-Man magazine.
His paintings depicted He-Man, Skeletor, and the inhabitants of Eternia with a level of detail and realism that was very different from the cartoons. The characters looked like warriors from a heroic fantasy novel, with exaggerated musculature, worn armor, and large-scale battle scenes.
Between 1985 and 1988, he created all 16 covers for He-Man and the Masters of the Universe magazine, along with a series of posters that became some of the most memorable images in the entire franchise.
For many fans, Eternia didn’t look like it did on television. It looked the way Earl Norem painted it. ⚔️
Sweden has had some success in recent years in technocratically tightening its migration laws despite having a naturally strong centre left political culture. Hasn’t solved Sweden’s problems but means it is no longer ‘Worst Country in Europe Award’ holder like it was in the 10’s
Sweden looks like it will swing back to the centre left in the 2026 election thanks to the combined forces of some political problems now being slightly addressed and then ‘nobodycaresanymoreism’. Real test is whether the immigration law changes were ‘pantsuit’ ‘technocratic’ enough to stick or if they are perceived as so cruel that the centre left opts to repeal them. As it was, the 2022 election only went to the right by the centre right parties entering into coalition with the populist Swedish Democrats. In this context probably that the Swedish Democrats have been able to push for even these changes has to be seen as a kind of achievement
While it’s true there is visible migration on the streets of Swedish cities they still feel ‘mostly Swedish’ and are Basically Fine. In that way the inertia politically is probably still on the side of ‘Not Making Radical Migration Changes’, hence likely Social Democrats win soon
New today: Peter Thiel's secret society of illuminati had a website so insecure it exposed his entire membership list. And it's... interesting. His Palatantir folks, sure. Leonard Leo. The president of Stanford. Ezra Klein. And some D politicians who really shouldn't be there. 1/
Going to post the membership list in chunks. It's tech-fascists and fake-centrist pundits and Silicon Valley business guys and health wackos like Peter Attia and Trump toadies like Scott Bessent and a few arts folks and then.. Cory Booker? 2/
Dan Driscoll, our SecArmy, is JD Vance's friend from Yale tasked with giving your tax dollars to Peter Thiel's friends with defense startups. Pundit Sam Harris, no surprise. Rob Hur was the Special Counsel who wrote a hit-piece biased report on Joe Biden. 3/
If I got laid off tomorrow & had to replace my salary asap, here’s exactly what I’d do:
1. Go to Instagram and start a fresh account. Use a spare email. No one has to know.
2. Pick a niche where people are actually desperate for solutions. AI, money, fitness, business. These have audiences that buy and brands lining up to advertise.
3. Install ViralFindr immediately. It shows me exactly what content already went viral, so I don't have to guess what to post.
Цікавий момент, який часто випадає з популярних дискусій:
12.06.1943 — початок Карпатського рейду радянських партизан Ковпака і їх прибуття на Волинь
11.07.1943 — пік Волинських подій
липень 1943 — бої між ковпаківцями та УПА на Волині.
Далі - більше!
1/11
⬇️⬇️⬇️
При цьому комуністи, яких часто показують лише як борців із нацистами, на Волині нерідко співпрацювали з польськими самооборонними загонами та АК — бо вони мали спільного ворога в особі УПА.
(хоча вже у 1944 році ті самі радянські структури роззброювали та переслідували АК.
⬇️
І знову Польща, співпрацюючи з Московією проти України, в результаті виявляється зрадженою московитами та програє…)
А у секретних доповідних записках НКВС* відкрито звітується про «успішні операції з ліквідації бандитів» силами спецгруп, які копіювали поведінку та
BREAKING: Details via federal arrest affidavit reveal that a California man named Michael Alan Thomas was one of the alleged organizers of the alleged UFC White House terror plot. Feds say he admitted he believes the U.S. government is run by elites who sacrifice and eat children, had involvement with Jeffrey Epstein, and are protected by President Trump.
Investigators took screenshots of his Signal chats in which details of the plot were discussed and maps of the UFC event were shown with suggestions on where snipers should be placed. Feds also recovered rifles & ammo.
Sources tell colleague @davidspunt those in custody are American citizens snd there is no foreign nexus believed to be at play.
Correction: Phone and weapon photos are from a separate defendant, a 19-year-old Ohio man named Tycen Proper, also arrested by FBI.
According to the complaint, Proper allegedly spent 3k of his "graduation money" to purchase "lots of" ammunition, guns, extra magazines and other things for the alleged attack. Had quit his job to meet up with people he had met online to conduct "missions" and "recons."
MORE: Feds say Proper’s mother made the initial call to police when she became concerned about his activities - then the wider web/plot was uncovered.
A Russian soldier kept Sofia, Ukrainian, for over a year as a sex prisoner — holding her in a flat with bars on the balcony, boarded-up windows, locked doors, and padlocks.
He took her phone, left food, and returned there only to rape her — The Times. 1/
She was 21. She lived with her disabled mother and two younger brothers in a village in Kharkiv region. When Russian troops occupied it, one soldier began harassing her. She refused. 2/
One day he came armed, with two other soldiers.
“Do you want your family to be dead?”
Then he took her to a nearby building and raped her, according to investigators. It happened again and again. 3/
Fifty years of rules keeping off-road vehicles on designated trails — GONE.
Lifted trucks, ATVs, dirt bikes, snowmobiles.
Anywhere they want. On your public lands.
Nixon protected it. Carter protected it. Trump just erased both quietly on a Friday afternoon.
A grizzly bear will abandon its habitat when there's just one mile of road per square mile. One mile. Now there's no limit on where these vehicles can go.
In the Mojave, desert tortoises have already lost 96% of their population in some monitored areas - partly because off-road vehicles crush their burrows. A federal judge just ordered 2,200 miles of trails closed to protect what's left.
Then Trump signed this.
No designated trails. No boundaries. No framework at all. When vehicles go off trail they shatter habitat into pieces too small for wildlife to survive in. They destroy stream banks. They push predators toward humans. And when that happens, the animals always lose.
There was no vote. No public comment. Just a signature.
Now the agencies tasked with writing replacement rules are the BLM, the Forest Service, and the National Park Service - all under an administration that has spent months dismantling every protection they had.
The Interior Department, led by Doug Burgum, is in charge of most of it. The same Doug Burgum who has opened public lands to drilling, mining, and grazing at every turn.
Don't hold your breath.
When the last quiet place is gone, what do we tell the children who never got to hear it?
#DemsUnited
→ Backcountry hunters and anglers are sounding the alarm too - and when the hunting community and environmentalists are saying the same thing, you know something has gone very wrong. Outdoor Life breaks down exactly what was just erased and why it matters to everyone who loves wild places. outdoorlife.com/conservation/o…
→ Just weeks before Trump signed this order, a federal judge shut down 2,200 miles of off-road trails in the Mojave to save what's left of the desert tortoise. The Spokesman-Review took you into that desert. What they found will stay with you. spokesman.com/stories/2026/f…
La Catedral de Teruel es un símbolo del mudéjar. Pero también es un símbolo de Aragón, y de toda la arquitectura española.
Un edificio mestizo, cuyo techo apareció en un bombardeo de la Guerra Civil y ahora es Patrimonio de la Humanidad.
Esta es la historia. 🧵⤵️
A finales de 1937, durante la Batalla de Teruel, la ciudad fue bombardeada intensamente y se vio terriblemente afectada.
En sus calles, en sus casas y en sus gentes.
Y también en su catedral, bombardeada por las tropas franquistas.
Pero una de esas bombas, por pura casualidad, operó un pequeño milagro. Tal vez por la onda expansiva o tal vez por la vibración, se desprendió parte de la bóveda encamonada que cubría la nave central, y detrás apareció una joya dorada y policroma.
I built a RAG system on my own laptop that never sends a single byte to OpenAI.
100% offline. 100% open source.
Here's the entire 6-step build in plain English:
Firstly, what is RAG?
It means giving an AI access to your own files.
Instead of asking ChatGPT and hoping it knows the answer, you point it at your own PDFs, notes, and emails. It reads them and then answers based on YOUR stuff.
Same idea as "chat with your PDF" but it runs on your laptop and no data leaves your machine.
Step 1: Install Ollama.
This is the engine that runs AI models on your laptop.
You download it once. Works on Mac, Windows, and Linux. Free. No account needed.
It's called Ollama. Think of it as Spotify for AI models. You pick a model and it just runs.
Commercial VPNs route your traffic through shared IP addresses. thousands of users on the same IP. those IPs are public, known, and listed. The government can block them the same way Netflix blocks them, one IP list. done.
A self-hosted VPN is different.
Your server. your IP. nobody else's traffic on it. there is no list to add it to. the government would have to identify and block your specific home address or VPS individually. that is not scalable. that is not what mass VPN bans do.
here's how to build one in under 10 minutes.
you need:
— a $5/month VPS (DigitalOcean, Hetzner, Vultr — any will work)
— Docker installed
— 10 minutes
step 1: get a VPS. pick any provider. Ubuntu 22.04. the cheapest plan works.
step 2: install Docker on it.
curl -fsSL https://get[.]docker[.]com | sh
step 4: open your browser. go to YOUR_SERVER_IP:51821. log in. click "new client." download the config. import it into the WireGuard app on your phone or laptop.
that's it. you now have a private VPN that:
— nobody else uses
— isn't on any blocklist
— costs $5 a month
— logs nothing unless you tell it to
— uses modern cryptography the NSA currently cannot break
WireGuard is built into the Linux kernel. 4,000 lines of code. fully audited. faster than OpenVPN. no configuration mistakes that accidentally weaken your encryption.
I am confident that most of your confusions, doubts and questions around international investing will get addressed in this thread.
- Should you go via LRS Route or via Indian AMCs?
- What if Indian AMCs have reached their upper limit or trade at too much premium?
- What is LRS Route?
- What frameworks are available for Indians under LRS Route (GIFT City / NSE IX, UCITS (Ireland Domiciled) and US based ETFs)?
- Which framework best suits your investing needs?
- What platforms you can use under each framework?
- How to go about actual investing?
- What are the tax implications for Indians?
- What changes in your ITR filing when you go via LRS Route?
And much more....
LRS (Liberalized Remittance Scheme) is a facility introduced by the Reserve Bank of India (@RBI) that allows resident individuals to send money abroad for permitted purposes without seeking prior RBI approval.
Every resident Indian can remit up to USD 250,000 per financial year (April–March) under this scheme. This limit is cumulative across all foreign transfers made during the year.
The money can be used for a variety of purposes, including investing in US stocks and ETFs, investing in overseas mutual funds, paying for education, medical treatment, travel expenses, gifts and maintenance of relatives living overseas, and buying property outside India.
LRS is available only to resident individuals. It is not available to companies, partnership firms, HUFs or trusts.
If you invest in foreign stocks or ETFs through Indian platforms like @INDmoneyApp or similar services, the money is generally remitted under the LRS route through an authorized Indian bank.
The bank handles the foreign exchange conversion and regulatory reporting.
Example: If you want to invest ₹5 lakh in a Nasdaq ETF or USD 2,000 in Apple shares, your Indian bank converts your rupees into dollars and remits the amount abroad under the LRS route, while tracking it against your annual USD 250,000 limit.
Let us look at the available Frameworks now...
What frameworks and platforms can I use to invest via LRS Route
There are primarily three (3) different frameworks (and multiple platforms within each framework) to invest internationally via the LRS Route:
Framework # 1: Investing via US listed funds
Framework # 2: Investing via UCITS listed funds
Framework # 3: Investing via GIFT City
Framework # 1 should be the preferred choice for all beginners and most retail investors.
Framework # 2 should be the preferred choice for those retail investors who are building significant wealth internationally (Say more than USD 60,000 internationally).
Framework # 3 is the least preferred option in the current scenario, primarily because it is new, and there are lot of unknowns as of now.
Let us deep dive into each Framework now, starting with Framework 1...