Recent well liked threads
How to make money trading, as a random d!ckhead.
Trading requires us to buy things cheaper than they should be / sell things richer than they should be.
But how could I, some random guy from New Zealand who trades in his underpants, know what things should be worth?
Trading requires us to buy things cheaper than they should be / sell things richer than they should be.
But how could I, some random guy from New Zealand who trades in his underpants, know what things should be worth?
The short answer is I don’t.
I don’t have a clue.
Thankfully, I don’t need to be able to know what things should be worth all the time.
It’s enough to be able to find WHEN they’re likely to mispriced, on average.
I concentrate on simple technical supply/demand imbalances.
I don’t have a clue.
Thankfully, I don’t need to be able to know what things should be worth all the time.
It’s enough to be able to find WHEN they’re likely to mispriced, on average.
I concentrate on simple technical supply/demand imbalances.
Mostly, I look to get paid to do useful things in uncompetitive places: “Doing useful things that suck’
Lemme explain what I mean.
I don’t think the price of a financial asset is a mystery.
I think it can mostly be explained by the following ideas.
Lemme explain what I mean.
I don’t think the price of a financial asset is a mystery.
I think it can mostly be explained by the following ideas.
Why make orcs? What is the advantage? It's not just because they're evil - Sauron can get all the evil humans he wants. Here are the reasons I've parsed by reading LotR and making logical biological deductions from this.
Humans breed extremely slowly. Elves and dwarfs are even worse. We know that orcs "multiply" over a course of only a decade or two, so what's happening? Well, we know orcs are smaller than humans. Chimps, which I think are comparable in size to orcs, have a gestation period 5 weeks shorter than humans, and orcs might be shorter - a deer is even larger, and has a gestation period 3 months shorter, so it's not size that matters. Since orcs are specifically and magically bred for war, my guess is they are even shorter. In fact, let's take a page from the Hildebrandt brothers and assume that orcs breed and grow similarly to pigs.
If this is the case, orcs have a gestation of about 3 months, and grow to 120 lbs (a typical size) in another 3-4 months. Orcs might grow faster than pigs, because they are more carnivorous, and thus are getting more protein & fat in their diet. Now, not everything about the orc-pig comparison is in the orc's favor. Adult hogs are MUCH bigger than orcs, so they can give birth to litters. I imagine most orc births are to a single child - which is then taken to warrens of multiple orc-spawn raised by a few caretakers. I do not believe orcs have any kind of family life or even a nuclear family.
So - an orc mother gets pregnant, has a kid 3 months later, nurses it for 3-6 weeks, then abandons it. It reaches adult size in another 3-6 months, gets some military training and it's off to the war. That is a FAST-breeding creature. No wonder they felt that the Age of Men was over!
1/
Humans breed extremely slowly. Elves and dwarfs are even worse. We know that orcs "multiply" over a course of only a decade or two, so what's happening? Well, we know orcs are smaller than humans. Chimps, which I think are comparable in size to orcs, have a gestation period 5 weeks shorter than humans, and orcs might be shorter - a deer is even larger, and has a gestation period 3 months shorter, so it's not size that matters. Since orcs are specifically and magically bred for war, my guess is they are even shorter. In fact, let's take a page from the Hildebrandt brothers and assume that orcs breed and grow similarly to pigs.
If this is the case, orcs have a gestation of about 3 months, and grow to 120 lbs (a typical size) in another 3-4 months. Orcs might grow faster than pigs, because they are more carnivorous, and thus are getting more protein & fat in their diet. Now, not everything about the orc-pig comparison is in the orc's favor. Adult hogs are MUCH bigger than orcs, so they can give birth to litters. I imagine most orc births are to a single child - which is then taken to warrens of multiple orc-spawn raised by a few caretakers. I do not believe orcs have any kind of family life or even a nuclear family.
So - an orc mother gets pregnant, has a kid 3 months later, nurses it for 3-6 weeks, then abandons it. It reaches adult size in another 3-6 months, gets some military training and it's off to the war. That is a FAST-breeding creature. No wonder they felt that the Age of Men was over!
1/
And it's even worse from the human viewpoint, because of the numbers of orcs that can fight. In a human society, typically no more than 10-11% are in the military. In a modern society it's even less. The grossly over-militarized society of Imperial Japan had less than 5% of the population in arms. Now, in older barbaric societies, such as gauls or vikings, there was a higher percentage, but it still isn't amazingly more than 30% or so. Children don't fight till they're 15 years old or more. The elderly don't fight. With vanishingly few exceptions, women don't fight. Essential workers don't fight except in extremis - it's a loser's mentality to send farmers & miners & tailors to war, because it eats your seed corn (so to speak).
But orcs? They're only children for a few months. If they even HAVE elderly, they are probably few in number, and act as caretakers of the young. I believe orc females look exactly like the males - the same size, the same look. They are as flat-chested as chimps or gorillas. Similar voices. They dress the same. I suppose if you pulled off their trews you could tell which was which but yuck.
So basically 80-90% of an orc population is able to fight. If you have a population of humans equal in size to a group of orcs, then the orc fighters will outnumber the human warriors 3, 4, or even 8 to 1. Just like we see at Helm's Deep, where the fortress is full of the old, the crippled, the women, and the children, with a much smaller part being warriors.
/2
But orcs? They're only children for a few months. If they even HAVE elderly, they are probably few in number, and act as caretakers of the young. I believe orc females look exactly like the males - the same size, the same look. They are as flat-chested as chimps or gorillas. Similar voices. They dress the same. I suppose if you pulled off their trews you could tell which was which but yuck.
So basically 80-90% of an orc population is able to fight. If you have a population of humans equal in size to a group of orcs, then the orc fighters will outnumber the human warriors 3, 4, or even 8 to 1. Just like we see at Helm's Deep, where the fortress is full of the old, the crippled, the women, and the children, with a much smaller part being warriors.
/2
You might argue - well, orcs need lots of food to multiply so rapidly, to which I answer, "Yup". I imagine orcs REALLY QUICKLY outbreed their food supply, like rabbits, bullfrogs, brown recluse spiders, or aphids. And then they have to come raiding down out of the hills to get more food - which is exactly what we see the orcs do.
BUT in some cases, the orcs get a powerful, magical master - such as the Balrog, the Witch-King of Angmar, or Saruman, or Sauron. In this case, these wise and potent leaders are able to organize a system to breed up the orcish numbers to almost inconceivable numbers. Think of Saruman needing to chop down Fangorn to fuel his furnaces, or Sauron raising vast crops of coarse vegetables in Nurn to feed his hordes.
This isn't needed for humans - we grow in numbers too slowly. It takes 50-100 years to double for us.
3/
BUT in some cases, the orcs get a powerful, magical master - such as the Balrog, the Witch-King of Angmar, or Saruman, or Sauron. In this case, these wise and potent leaders are able to organize a system to breed up the orcish numbers to almost inconceivable numbers. Think of Saruman needing to chop down Fangorn to fuel his furnaces, or Sauron raising vast crops of coarse vegetables in Nurn to feed his hordes.
This isn't needed for humans - we grow in numbers too slowly. It takes 50-100 years to double for us.
3/
as i've paused comics to finish my next book, and am working on getting holiday stuff going, it's been cool to revisit some projects. in this thread i'll repost one from 2021: the inverted propaganda series
quote tweeted below is my general operation
let's check it out [...]:
quote tweeted below is my general operation
let's check it out [...]:
propaganda has always been an interesting concept to me as someone who makes images, and in the "propaganda" folder, it's hard to get more heavy hitting than soviet.
fittingly for my general interests, a lot of it is about religion. here are some examples:
fittingly for my general interests, a lot of it is about religion. here are some examples:
i was looking at these one day and was thinking that the visual devices in them were very strong - look at this one below. in fact, the communication is so strong that you could easily flip the pieces around and invert their message. so, i decided to do that.
Je suis relancé, de façon parfois insistante par un follower, qui me reproche un extrémisme dans mes positions sur l'🇺🇦, que je soutiens un gouvernement corrompu, que cela coute des vies aux 🇺🇦, en pure perte. Et si on essayait de répondre à l'intérêt de soutenir l'🇺🇦, #withflags
🇫🇷 "On ne le dit jamais assez, mais les Etats n'ont pas d'amis, ils ont des intérêts. Et si on doit répondre à l'intérêt pour moi de soutenir un des deux protagonistes dans la guerre 🇺🇦🇷🇺, il faut l'envisager sous quatre angles, sécurité, l'influence, prospérité et stabilité"
🇺🇦 "On va tout de suite poser les bases de discussion, oui, j'ai été un état profondément corrompu (notamment par 🇷🇺), j'essaie de m'améliorer. Oui, j'ai une division qui prend des références à la période nazie et pas que et oui, je glorifie un ancien dirigeant mêlé aux nazis.
Did you now that the PRINCIPLE trial out of the UK found that IVM was superior to the usual care in practically every subgroup it tested, but it sat on the results for ~600 days? When it finally published, it buried these results in page 346 of the appendix.
The main body of the paper they published is even more bizarre --
1. They claim that "clinically meaningful" meant 1.5 days improvement in median time to recovery.
2. They admit that ivermectin showed >2 days to recovery.
3. Their main conclusion is that ivermectin is unlikely to provide clinically meaningful improvement in recovery.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
1. They claim that "clinically meaningful" meant 1.5 days improvement in median time to recovery.
2. They admit that ivermectin showed >2 days to recovery.
3. Their main conclusion is that ivermectin is unlikely to provide clinically meaningful improvement in recovery.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
The secret sauce in their conclusion is that their target metric of HR 1.2 is based on 9 days of recovery needed (after randomization). Even though they had ran many hundreds of patients by the time they started the ivm arm they knew the days needed for recovery were >14.
EXCLUSIVE: 1/ Epstein didn’t just prey on children. He helped bankroll and embed a worldview of race science, climate “culling” and eugenics inside Silicon Valley’s elite AI networks. Tonight we publish the final part of my @BylineTimes investigation🧵bylinetimes.com/2025/12/05/how…
2/ What emerges from this story is that Epstein helped shape a shared techno-fascist ideology which has touched the most powerful men in the world, currently revolving around Trump 2.0. This ideology justifies mass deaths of inferior people blocking our transhumanist evolution
3/ Part 1 showed how Epstein stayed inside a confidential Silicon Valley brains trust – via the Edge Foundation – alongside Musk, Bezos, Brin, Page, Gates, Zuckerberg and others, even after his sex-offending conviction
Fallstricke des Ideals vom “Mündigen Bürger”🧵
Unsere idealistischen Annahmen über das Funktionieren sozialer Gruppen machen Demokratien anfällig und blind für feindliche Einfluss-Kampagnen.
Aus der Systemtheorie können wir Lösungsansätze für diese Fallstricke ableiten:
1/14
Unsere idealistischen Annahmen über das Funktionieren sozialer Gruppen machen Demokratien anfällig und blind für feindliche Einfluss-Kampagnen.
Aus der Systemtheorie können wir Lösungsansätze für diese Fallstricke ableiten:
1/14
Die von Niklas Luhmann entwickelte Systemtheorie kann Erklärungen dafür liefern, wie Einflusskampagnen
- sehr wirksam und
- für die Betroffenen nicht erkennbar
durchgeführt werden.
Russland nutzt solche Strategien, die schon sowjetische Polit-Technologen entwickelt hatten.
2/14
- sehr wirksam und
- für die Betroffenen nicht erkennbar
durchgeführt werden.
Russland nutzt solche Strategien, die schon sowjetische Polit-Technologen entwickelt hatten.
2/14
Luhmanns Theorie wird kaum beachtet in der Diskussion
-wie sich öffentliche Meinung entwickelt und
- wie sie beeinflusst werden kann.
Das liegt auch an den Hürden dieser hoch abstrakten Theorie mit ihren speziellen Definitionen.
Ein Einstiegs-Video:
3/14
-wie sich öffentliche Meinung entwickelt und
- wie sie beeinflusst werden kann.
Das liegt auch an den Hürden dieser hoch abstrakten Theorie mit ihren speziellen Definitionen.
Ein Einstiegs-Video:
3/14
📣 FachaWars. 💣Explota REVUELTA, preparen palomitas. Era de esperar andando el Santorio (Sr.Liberal) por medio. Todo lo que toca lo convierte en mierda.
😅😂🤣😂😇
💣 Acusaciones cruzadas y denuncia por presunta estafa.
CIA & NYT are cooperating to push the vile Delcy Rodriguez as the replacement for the vile dictator Maduro running Venezuela now.
Read a full background and briefing on her in the 11 photos below.
RTW
Read a full background and briefing on her in the 11 photos below.
RTW
10 Most Powerful Shani Dev Mantras Everyone Should Chant for Prosperity, Success, and Removal of Obstacles in Life.
1) ॐ काकध्वजाय विद्महे खड्गहस्ताय धीमहि, तन्नो मन्दः प्रचोदयात्
1) ॐ काकध्वजाय विद्महे खड्गहस्ताय धीमहि, तन्नो मन्दः प्रचोदयात्
2) ऊँ शं शनैश्चाराय नमः।
3)ऊँ प्रां प्रीं प्रौं सः शनये नमः।
4)ऊँ श्रां श्रीं श्रूं शनैश्चाराय नमः।
5) ऊँ नीलांजनसमाभासं रविपुत्रं यमाग्रजम् छायामार्तण्डसम्भूतं तं नमामि शनैश्चरम्।।
6)ऊँ सूर्य पुत्राय नमः।।
3)ऊँ प्रां प्रीं प्रौं सः शनये नमः।
4)ऊँ श्रां श्रीं श्रूं शनैश्चाराय नमः।
5) ऊँ नीलांजनसमाभासं रविपुत्रं यमाग्रजम् छायामार्तण्डसम्भूतं तं नमामि शनैश्चरम्।।
6)ऊँ सूर्य पुत्राय नमः।।
7)ॐ शनैश्चराय विदमहे छायापुत्राय धीमहि , तन्नो मंद: प्रचोदयात ||
8)ऊँ शन्नोदेवीर-भिष्टयऽआपो भवन्तु पीतये शंय्योरभिस्त्रवन्तुनः।।
9) ऊँ भगभवाय विद्महैं मृत्युरुपाय धीमहि तन्नो शनिः प्रचोद्यात्।।
10) ॐ शमाग्निभि: करच्छन्न: स्तपंत सूर्य शंवातोवा त्वरपा अपास्निधा:
8)ऊँ शन्नोदेवीर-भिष्टयऽआपो भवन्तु पीतये शंय्योरभिस्त्रवन्तुनः।।
9) ऊँ भगभवाय विद्महैं मृत्युरुपाय धीमहि तन्नो शनिः प्रचोद्यात्।।
10) ॐ शमाग्निभि: करच्छन्न: स्तपंत सूर्य शंवातोवा त्वरपा अपास्निधा:
NEW: I’ve taken a deep dive into the new puberty blockers trial, exploring how we got here, what it will and won’t answers, with a sprinkling of new revelations too.
With contributions from Hilary Cass, trial team members (past & present) and MPs
newstatesman.com/politics/2025/…
With contributions from Hilary Cass, trial team members (past & present) and MPs
newstatesman.com/politics/2025/…
A former member of the trial told me, “the early planning meetings were unlike any other clinical trial I’ve encountered. We could easily list all the potential harms to monitor and how to test for them, but we didn’t have a clear rationale for giving the drug in the first place”
I can also reveal:
- Close to one in eight children being seen at the London gender hub have disclosed self-medicating with hormones
- NHSE hasn’t started the data linkage study of former Gids patients & has not got the required ethical and regulatory permissions to do so AND…
- Close to one in eight children being seen at the London gender hub have disclosed self-medicating with hormones
- NHSE hasn’t started the data linkage study of former Gids patients & has not got the required ethical and regulatory permissions to do so AND…
El tuit de @WatchWithUsNow_ motiva el análisis de integridad de data.
Comparamos M37 vs M38 publicadas en @HondurasRosales: se detectó Rollback de actas y estrechamiento del margen.
Me baso en el JSON publicado por el @CneHonduras.
Verificando la linealidad del conteo. HILO.
Comparamos M37 vs M38 publicadas en @HondurasRosales: se detectó Rollback de actas y estrechamiento del margen.
Me baso en el JSON publicado por el @CneHonduras.
Verificando la linealidad del conteo. HILO.
@WatchWithUsNow_ @HondurasRosales @CneHonduras (1/12) ANÁLISIS DE LA INTEGRIDAD DE LA DATA. El patrón numérico observado es incompatible con un conteo estándar y apunta a una intervención exógena en la base de datos que rompe la correlación lineal. La Muestra 39 consolida el resultado de esta corrección.
@WatchWithUsNow_ @HondurasRosales @CneHonduras (2/12) Cuadro 1: Historial de Cambios en Variables Clave (M34 a M39)
Este cuadro muestra el patrón de retrocesos (rollbacks) en el conteo de actas y los movimientos erráticos en la diferencia de votos que precedieron a la Muestra 39.
Este cuadro muestra el patrón de retrocesos (rollbacks) en el conteo de actas y los movimientos erráticos en la diferencia de votos que precedieron a la Muestra 39.
I used to be an advisor at the Berlaymont.
Now I’m spilling the beans on how the EU is deliberately designed so citizens can never hold it accountable or force real change from below.
Thread 👇
Now I’m spilling the beans on how the EU is deliberately designed so citizens can never hold it accountable or force real change from below.
Thread 👇
As a former advisor at the European Commission, active in European Youth movements for a decade, and holder of a Master's in European Studies (specialising in multi-level governance), I once believed deeply in the EU's ideals.
Today, I see the machinery clearly: it's designed to resist change from citizens.
Today, I see the machinery clearly: it's designed to resist change from citizens.
No European Public Sphere: There's no true Europe-wide debate or media ecosystem.
Elections to the European Parliament get ~50% turnout – far below national levels. MEPs are often retired or sidelined national politicians handed safe, lucrative seats.
Oversight? Minimal, because there's no shared "demos" holding them accountable.
Elections to the European Parliament get ~50% turnout – far below national levels. MEPs are often retired or sidelined national politicians handed safe, lucrative seats.
Oversight? Minimal, because there's no shared "demos" holding them accountable.
1/ A Russian convict soldier has described the gruelling and deadly experience of serving in a 'Storm V' assault unit, from initial training, to facing swarms of Ukrainian drones, and being the only survivor of a bloody battle against dug-in and determined Ukrainian forces. ⬇️
2/ Russian warblogger 'Maxim Kalashnikov' publishes the account of a Storm V soldier of his acquaintance:
"We weren't trained for long. At the Markovka training ground, the instructors, tired of repeating the same thing over and over again, don't care how you're trained."
"We weren't trained for long. At the Markovka training ground, the instructors, tired of repeating the same thing over and over again, don't care how you're trained."
3/ "The main thing for them is that there are no injuries or accidental hits on their own during shooting. However, these were rare. What did they teach us? Who knows? How did they teach us? Not at all from the point of view of survivability and combat effectiveness.
MKUltra was an illegal CIA human experimentation program which ran from 1953 to 1973, when it was supposedly shut down.
Jeffrey Epstein began working in 1974.
Stick with me.
Don’t let the drip releases distract you.
Jeffrey Epstein began working in 1974.
Stick with me.
Don’t let the drip releases distract you.
2/
MK-ULTRA wasn’t one location.
It was a network. The CIA intentionally spread experiments across the U.S. and abroad so no single institution could see the full picture.
There were over 80 universities, hospitals and labs where the experiments were conducted.
MK-ULTRA wasn’t one location.
It was a network. The CIA intentionally spread experiments across the U.S. and abroad so no single institution could see the full picture.
There were over 80 universities, hospitals and labs where the experiments were conducted.
3/
The “studies” were often framed as psychology, psychiatry, or pharmacology research.
The “studies” were often framed as psychology, psychiatry, or pharmacology research.
@siyakouly یعنی حدودا کل این اجزا ۳۰۰ هزار دلار میشه قیمت امروزش!
خوب سپاه خوب پول در میاورده که تو ایران و عراق و سوریه می کشته و از طریق باند اعضاش تو لهستان این اعضا رو می فروخته.
اگر ۱/۳ قیمت هم می داده میشده ۱۰۰ هزار دلار به ازای نفر.
فقط تو سوریه میلیون ها نفر رو سلاخی کردن واسه اعضا
خوب سپاه خوب پول در میاورده که تو ایران و عراق و سوریه می کشته و از طریق باند اعضاش تو لهستان این اعضا رو می فروخته.
اگر ۱/۳ قیمت هم می داده میشده ۱۰۰ هزار دلار به ازای نفر.
فقط تو سوریه میلیون ها نفر رو سلاخی کردن واسه اعضا
@siyakouly @ThreadReaderApp unroll
@siyakouly @threadreaderapp @ThreadReaderApp unroll
@grok
@grok