Recent well liked threads
1/ Some Simple Economics of AGI—🔥🧵
Right now, there is a low-grade panic running through the economy. Everyone is asking the same anxious question: what exactly is AI going to automate, and what will be left for us?
Right now, there is a low-grade panic running through the economy. Everyone is asking the same anxious question: what exactly is AI going to automate, and what will be left for us?
2/ Most people assume the answer tracks some version of digital versus physical—that knowledge work falls first, then robotics catches up. And almost everyone believes that whatever AI can do in general, it's bad at their particular job.
3/ The lawyers think legal judgment is safe. The doctors think clinical intuition is safe. The strategists think strategy is safe. The creatives are sure creativity is safe.
Antisemitism is not a serious issue.
50% of Jews are Israelis, who live large off the oppression of Palestinians.
The other 50% are immensely socio-economically advantaged. At least 80% of them support Israel.
It's tiime to stop pretending they're oppressed.
50% of Jews are Israelis, who live large off the oppression of Palestinians.
The other 50% are immensely socio-economically advantaged. At least 80% of them support Israel.
It's tiime to stop pretending they're oppressed.
Jews are systemically advantaged in ways that eclipse even what's given to non Jewish whites.
The government of every western country uniquely caters to them, legislating to ensure no one can disagree with them. They're treated like a protected Brahmin class.
The government of every western country uniquely caters to them, legislating to ensure no one can disagree with them. They're treated like a protected Brahmin class.
Without meaningful exceptions, Jewish institutions are all Zionist. They are exceptionally well organised and politically influential. They can point to something they dislike and politicians and the judiciary deal with it immediately.
This is NOT what oppression looks like.
This is NOT what oppression looks like.
Excited to share what I'm working on as Visiting Fellow @OversightProject.
The question I'm solving: why do Republicans vote against their own party... and their own voters on issues such as mass migration and SAVE ACT?
Surprising early finding: FEC donations are only weakly correlated with voting behavior. Institutional affiliations (where senators trained, what orgs they've moved through, where they have membership) predict it far better.
And almost nobody tracks that systematically. Building that infrastructure now.
Major stress test: why Senate Republicans are slow-walking the SAVE Act despite 80% public support. Stay tuned.
The question I'm solving: why do Republicans vote against their own party... and their own voters on issues such as mass migration and SAVE ACT?
Surprising early finding: FEC donations are only weakly correlated with voting behavior. Institutional affiliations (where senators trained, what orgs they've moved through, where they have membership) predict it far better.
And almost nobody tracks that systematically. Building that infrastructure now.
Major stress test: why Senate Republicans are slow-walking the SAVE Act despite 80% public support. Stay tuned.
On the SAVE Act specifically:
"The uncomfortable synthesis: these senators have more in common with their Democratic counterparts than with their own voters. Not because of a coordinated network... just because they've lived in the same city, breathed the same air, and attended the same events for 30-40 years. The filibuster is the excuse. The real answer is they don't feel the urgency their base feels, because Washington DC doesn't feel that urgency."
"The uncomfortable synthesis: these senators have more in common with their Democratic counterparts than with their own voters. Not because of a coordinated network... just because they've lived in the same city, breathed the same air, and attended the same events for 30-40 years. The filibuster is the excuse. The real answer is they don't feel the urgency their base feels, because Washington DC doesn't feel that urgency."
Further explanation which I think is insightful:
Washington DC is culturally liberal. The institutions that long-tenure senators interact with daily: the press corps, the think tanks both parties actually attend (Brookings, CFR, Aspen, Carnegie), the schools their kids go to, the dinner parties are all left-of-center. That creates asymmetric social pressure:
A Republican who drifts left gets rewarded. The press calls them a "statesman," a "maverick," a "reasonable voice." They get invited to the bipartisan events. Their kids don't get weird looks at Sidwell Friends. McCain got this. Collins gets this. Murkowski gets this. There's a whole media infrastructure that celebrates the "heroic moderate Republican."
A Democrat who drifts right gets... nothing. There's no equivalent conservative institutional establishment in DC that would celebrate them. No black-tie dinner full of journalists who would applaud them for being "courageous" by moving right. Their base would primary them. The press wouldn't reward them. So they don't.
The incentive structure is one-directional. DC's Overton window is set by the press corps and the permanent institutions, and it pulls left. Republicans face constant pressure to accept that frame as the price of being taken seriously. Democrats are already inside the frame.
Washington DC is culturally liberal. The institutions that long-tenure senators interact with daily: the press corps, the think tanks both parties actually attend (Brookings, CFR, Aspen, Carnegie), the schools their kids go to, the dinner parties are all left-of-center. That creates asymmetric social pressure:
A Republican who drifts left gets rewarded. The press calls them a "statesman," a "maverick," a "reasonable voice." They get invited to the bipartisan events. Their kids don't get weird looks at Sidwell Friends. McCain got this. Collins gets this. Murkowski gets this. There's a whole media infrastructure that celebrates the "heroic moderate Republican."
A Democrat who drifts right gets... nothing. There's no equivalent conservative institutional establishment in DC that would celebrate them. No black-tie dinner full of journalists who would applaud them for being "courageous" by moving right. Their base would primary them. The press wouldn't reward them. So they don't.
The incentive structure is one-directional. DC's Overton window is set by the press corps and the permanent institutions, and it pulls left. Republicans face constant pressure to accept that frame as the price of being taken seriously. Democrats are already inside the frame.
Ну собственно начнём пожалуй с самого начала:
Стрела/болт для современного лука/арбалета, это вам не кусок доски, это высокотехнологичное изделие которое имеет свои определённые характеристики, от которых зависит то на сколько точно, кучно, и далеко вы сможете стрелять. Понятно
Стрела/болт для современного лука/арбалета, это вам не кусок доски, это высокотехнологичное изделие которое имеет свои определённые характеристики, от которых зависит то на сколько точно, кучно, и далеко вы сможете стрелять. Понятно
что вес стрелы/болтп во многом зависит от длины, длина зависит от растяжки вашего лука, или от длины хода тетевы на арбалете(длина ложа), и все бы ничего, но так же в характеристиках древка имеется такой показатель как spain(спайн), т.е. жёсткость, от этого показателя зависит
то на сколько сильно древко может изгибаться, и очень важно учитывать при этом "грубость" выстрела, чем ниже показатель спайна, тем меньше стрела деформируется оставаясь целой, т.е. чем ниже спайн, тем жёстче древко, например для блочного и классического луков спайн будет
Google DeepMind just published something that isn't a benchmark or a new model.
it's a governance framework for when AI agents start hiring other AI agents.
sounds abstract. it's not. this is the missing infrastructure layer for the "agentic web."
here's why it matters:
it's a governance framework for when AI agents start hiring other AI agents.
sounds abstract. it's not. this is the missing infrastructure layer for the "agentic web."
here's why it matters:
current multi-agent systems treat delegation as task splitting.
"break this into subtasks, assign them to tools."
DeepMind's argument: that's not delegation. that's just decomposition.
real delegation transfers authority, responsibility, and accountability. current systems transfer none of these.
"break this into subtasks, assign them to tools."
DeepMind's argument: that's not delegation. that's just decomposition.
real delegation transfers authority, responsibility, and accountability. current systems transfer none of these.
when an agent delegates to another agent today, you get:
> no clear authority boundaries
> no verification that work was actually done correctly
> no accountability chain when things fail
> no trust calibration based on track record
the whole thing runs on hope and well-structured prompts.
> no clear authority boundaries
> no verification that work was actually done correctly
> no accountability chain when things fail
> no trust calibration based on track record
the whole thing runs on hope and well-structured prompts.
🧵 THREAD: The JB Pritzker Files
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker is positioning himself as the Democratic hero of 2028.
But before the national press crowns him, let's look at what he's built.
As always, patience as I pull the thread together. 👇
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker is positioning himself as the Democratic hero of 2028.
But before the national press crowns him, let's look at what he's built.
As always, patience as I pull the thread together. 👇
In 2008, FBI wiretaps caught JB Pritzker on the phone multiple times trading political appointment strategies.
On tape, Pritzker advises on who should fill Barack Obama's vacated Senate seat:
"The only reason to do it is if he'll appoint you to something."
"The only reason to do it is if he'll appoint you to something."
Last night I went to the Senate to detail ICE's horrific abuse and violation of the law. I came armed with specific examples.
I'm sharing my speech here bc you need to know why we cannot give ICE another dime.
1/ It starts w the dystopian, roving "show your papers" patrols.
I'm sharing my speech here bc you need to know why we cannot give ICE another dime.
1/ It starts w the dystopian, roving "show your papers" patrols.
2/ Masked, unidentified men, driving unmarked cars now patrol American streets, dragging Americans out of their vehicles and terrorizing communities. Totally illegal. Reminiscent of Stalin and Pinochet. Fundamentally unAmerican.
3/ No place is safe. ICE ambushes churches, chases kids at bus stops, and tear gasses schools.
Under Trump
* the nominee for Surgeon General quit her surgery training (Means)
*the head of the National Science Foundation has no science training (O'Neill)
* the president's science advisor has no science training. (Kratsios - who worked for Peter Thiel alongside O'Neill)
1/
* the nominee for Surgeon General quit her surgery training (Means)
*the head of the National Science Foundation has no science training (O'Neill)
* the president's science advisor has no science training. (Kratsios - who worked for Peter Thiel alongside O'Neill)
1/
O'Neill and Kratsios were officers in Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital as it lost billions - they don't have financial training either.
Also
* the head of NIH & CDC is an economist who's never practiced medicine or done medical research. (Bhattacharya)
2/
Also
* the head of NIH & CDC is an economist who's never practiced medicine or done medical research. (Bhattacharya)
2/
What links these non-experts now in charge of US science and health is a belief that they can skip the hard part, just wing it with wacky theories.
Casey Means, nominee for Surgeon General, quit surgery because it was too stressful. Fakery is easier. 2/
vanityfair.com/news/story/the…
Casey Means, nominee for Surgeon General, quit surgery because it was too stressful. Fakery is easier. 2/
vanityfair.com/news/story/the…
1/ Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 with the expectation that it would be a quick intervention lasting only a few weeks. Its soldiers went to war lacking a wide range of what turned out to be essential skills. ⬇️
2/ 'Vault No. 8', a serving Russian soldier warblogging on Telegram, recalls the lack of preparedness for an extended conflict among pre-war contract (professional) soldiers when the invasion was launched on 24 February 2022:
3/ "1. Level of training.
According to the regular personnel themselves, they were proficient with the weapons and equipment assigned to them—they could repair and operate them. At the level of training they had.
According to the regular personnel themselves, they were proficient with the weapons and equipment assigned to them—they could repair and operate them. At the level of training they had.
6 hábitos extraños que en realidad revelan una gran inteligencia:
1. Hablar contigo mismo
1. Hablar contigo mismo
El habla autodirigida ayuda a organizar pensamientos, resolver problemas y regular emociones.
Es la forma en que el cerebro piensa en voz alta.
Muchas personas muy inteligentes mantienen este hábito hasta la edad adulta.
Es la forma en que el cerebro piensa en voz alta.
Muchas personas muy inteligentes mantienen este hábito hasta la edad adulta.
2. Sentirse a menudo como un extraño
Una inteligencia elevada suele ir acompañada de una mayor autoconciencia.
Ver patrones que otros pasan por alto puede dificultar la integración, especialmente en las primeras etapas de la vida.
La introspección puede resultar aislante antes de resultar útil.
Una inteligencia elevada suele ir acompañada de una mayor autoconciencia.
Ver patrones que otros pasan por alto puede dificultar la integración, especialmente en las primeras etapas de la vida.
La introspección puede resultar aislante antes de resultar útil.
Yesterday, when a young woman was asked at a NYC council hearing by @InnaVernikov if she thought it was ok to chant in support of Hamas in front of a synagogue, she compared it to someone being threatened by a Black man while walking down a street.
Oh, and then when asked for like the third time about whether chanting in support of Hamas in front of a synagogue is reasonable, she finally said “Um, I don’t have an opinion on that.”
Roger Froikin @rlefraim wrote:
בעזרת ה׳
יחד ננצח
SHABBAT SHALOM
שבת שלום
לכל העם היהודי
The was written in 2020, 3 years before the Hamas Genocidal attack on October 7, 2023.
Parshat Zachor
1)
בעזרת ה׳
יחד ננצח
SHABBAT SHALOM
שבת שלום
לכל העם היהודי
The was written in 2020, 3 years before the Hamas Genocidal attack on October 7, 2023.
Parshat Zachor
1)
We are commanded to remember Amaleq, and we are also commanded to destroy Amaleq.
"Remember what Amaleq did to you, on the way when you were leaving Egypt; that he came upon you on the way. and he struck those of you who were struggling,
2)
"Remember what Amaleq did to you, on the way when you were leaving Egypt; that he came upon you on the way. and he struck those of you who were struggling,
2)
all the weak and helpless tired at your rear, when you were faint and exhausted, and he did not fear G-d."
And, we are commanded to utterly destroy Amaleq and everything associated with Amaleq, not take spoils, not to capture prisoners and hold them, just to destroy it all.
3)
And, we are commanded to utterly destroy Amaleq and everything associated with Amaleq, not take spoils, not to capture prisoners and hold them, just to destroy it all.
3)