Recent well liked threads
Då kör vi! Min take på Rysslands krig! Jag är inte superutbildad på ämnet – lite högskolepoäng har jag och som intresse har jag haft det här sen jämt. Mina takes kommer från lite här och var, men en hel del kommer ifrån T. Marshall, P. Frankopan och P. Zeihan. 🧵
Jag kommer ta det från tre olika håll, även om dom hänger ihop med varandra. Geografi, demografi och handel och kontentan kommer mer eller mindre vara att från ryskt håll (eftersom dom bestämt sig för att dom är ett imperium och att det är töntigt att världen samarbetar
– speciellt på amerikanska villkor) så är det här nånting som behövde hända OCH nånting som mer eller mindre behövde hända Nu. Alright! Så. Ryssland. Det här är Ryssland tänker du – superstort, jätteland osv. Min take är att det inte riktigt stämmer! 
Alright! Det här är väl en bra dag för att dyka ner lite i Pakistan och prata lite om översvämningar, klimat, vattenkraftverk och kartor? (Jag är ju trots allt civilingenjör! 😎) Ni kanske kommer ihåg att det har blivit ganska så katastrofalt översvämmat?..
Först! Lite kartor! Pakistan är, som många andra länder, ett land som är beroende av sina flodsystem. Indusfloden är basen men den i sin tur består av ett gäng andra floder som rinner ihop med Indus som alla utgår ifrån smältande glaciärer i Himalaya (& Karakoram, Hindukush osv).
Går att jämföra det här med en populationsdensitetskarta för att få lite feeling över hur stor betydelse det har för var folk bor! Och hur sådär det då kan bli med katastrofala översvämningar.
Yes, an excessive focus on equality undermines freedom. So does an excessive focus on FREEDOM.
Focusing only on freedom ignores the importance of social norms, backed up by SENSIBLE laws. Without those norms, society becomes dysfunctional & that INCREASES the power of the state.
Focusing only on freedom ignores the importance of social norms, backed up by SENSIBLE laws. Without those norms, society becomes dysfunctional & that INCREASES the power of the state.
That's why you never actually see a classically liberal or libertarian regime sustain itself. A state that tries to be too neutral is weak & creates atomisation & anomie. The resulting dysfunction then paves the way for socialists or progressives to take over. Happens every time.
Can anyone actually name a country that was classically liberal or libertarian for more than 5 minutes? Western democracies today certainly aren't. They typically ESPOUSE liberal values, but look at the size of the government & the levels of taxation in all of them. Not liberal.
The latest homicide data should inform the current debate about violent crime.
In 2022/23 there were 247 victims of homicide. That includes 60 female victims who were killed by male offenders. aic.gov.au/sites/default/…
In 2022/23 there were 247 victims of homicide. That includes 60 female victims who were killed by male offenders. aic.gov.au/sites/default/…
60% of homicide offenders (155/260) had a criminal history. It would be interesting to know if there were more detailed data available about offenders' criminal history.
The data also shows again how much more of a problem homicide is within the indigenous community - the rate is 5.36 per 100,000 for indigenous people vs. 0.74 per 100,000 for non-indigenous people.
That clearly should be a major focus.
That clearly should be a major focus.
Many edgy takes on this platform about women voting.
Who did the men of America elect in the last US election before 19A? Wilson.
A few years earlier, the men of the UK & Europe elected the men who bumbled into WW1.
The West was in dire straits well before women got the vote.
Who did the men of America elect in the last US election before 19A? Wilson.
A few years earlier, the men of the UK & Europe elected the men who bumbled into WW1.
The West was in dire straits well before women got the vote.
Yes, UNMARRIED women vote much more progressive than the rest of the electorate in the US. That's probably because of abortion, mainly.
But you are not showing much political judgement yourself if you think it's a good idea to bang on about taking away the vote from women.
But you are not showing much political judgement yourself if you think it's a good idea to bang on about taking away the vote from women.
The sex of voters is not the issue. Their judgement & level of responsibility is. There is a strong case to restrict the vote to citizens who have demonstrated a capacity to exercise their civic duties responsibly. For example, net taxpayer households.
Mass immigration doesn’t just provide cheap labour & culinary diversity. It TRANSFORMS your nation’s culture.
That’s why conservatives oppose it. They love their culture & want it conserved.
And that’s why progressives support it. They hate their culture & want it transformed.
That’s why conservatives oppose it. They love their culture & want it conserved.
And that’s why progressives support it. They hate their culture & want it transformed.
The kind of person who holds up a sign saying “Abolish Australia” is exactly the kind of person who supports mass immigration. They hate their country’s heritage & culture. They hate the way their country IS. They hate that the country even exists. They want something different.
Even less radical supporters of mass immigration will frequently decry the way their nation used to be. It was so boring. It was pale & stale. It was all so monotonous because it was all so monochromatic. They simply don’t like their own culture. They want something different.
Motherhood has high status among those who love their culture & want to pass it on to the next generation. You need mothers for that.
Motherhood has low status among those who don’t love their culture & who are happy to import people to keep GDP growing. No mothers required.
Motherhood has low status among those who don’t love their culture & who are happy to import people to keep GDP growing. No mothers required.
This is why conservatives tend to value motherhood more than progressives. And fatherhood. And strong families.
We recognise that the only way a culture is conserved is by being passed onto the next generation. If you don’t want to conserve the culture, families are unnecessary.
We recognise that the only way a culture is conserved is by being passed onto the next generation. If you don’t want to conserve the culture, families are unnecessary.
@threadreaderapp unroll
Politics is not only about the distribution of material resources but also the distribution of respect.
In any society, choices are made about which type of people are shown respect in civic life, which type of people are ignored, & which type of people are shown disrespect.
In any society, choices are made about which type of people are shown respect in civic life, which type of people are ignored, & which type of people are shown disrespect.
In Australia, we make big civic displays of respect for indigenous people, immigrants & the rainbow gang. Our military also get two day dedicated to them.
We make little effort to show civic respect for other types of people.
And we actively disrespect Anglo-Celtic people.
We make little effort to show civic respect for other types of people.
And we actively disrespect Anglo-Celtic people.
How much recognition do farmers or tradies or entrepreneurs or stay-at-home mothers get? Basically none. There is a bit of recognition for teachers & medical workers & first responders, but even that is fairly limited.
Civic respect is a resource that is doled out selectively.
Civic respect is a resource that is doled out selectively.
Australia’s total fertility rate is about 1.5. So 10 representative couples have 15 children between them. The blue bars give an example of what that looks like.
In 1973, our TFR was 2.5. The red bars give an example of what that looks like.
We could do 2.5 again if we want.
In 1973, our TFR was 2.5. The red bars give an example of what that looks like.
We could do 2.5 again if we want.
In 1970 Australia’s TFR was 2.86. In 1980 it was 1.89.
The Pill, easier access to abortion, & no-fault divorce drove our TFR from well above the replacement rate of 2.1 to well below it.
We stopped reproducing ourselves & started importing more people instead.
The Pill, easier access to abortion, & no-fault divorce drove our TFR from well above the replacement rate of 2.1 to well below it.
We stopped reproducing ourselves & started importing more people instead.
A nation’s culture can only be conserved by being transmitted to the next generation. A nation that does not reproduce itself is fundamentally a nation that does not love its own culture enough to do that.
This image triggers liberals in fascinating ways.
Yes, they get very defensive when shown evidence of how little of their finite empathy they allocate to those closest to them.
But they also get very upset to see evidence of how much those mean conservatives care about people.
Yes, they get very defensive when shown evidence of how little of their finite empathy they allocate to those closest to them.
But they also get very upset to see evidence of how much those mean conservatives care about people.
Here’s the link to the study, in case you haven’t seen it.
Key conclusion: “liberals and conservatives differ not in the total amount of moral regard per se but rather they differ in their patterns of how they distribute their moral regard.” nature.com/articles/s4146…
Key conclusion: “liberals and conservatives differ not in the total amount of moral regard per se but rather they differ in their patterns of how they distribute their moral regard.” nature.com/articles/s4146…
When you get into discussions with liberals on this platform about the heatmap image, you can get some very strange attempts to deny or obfuscate the study’s findings. But you can also get some very striking admissions.
Because of Tasmania’s small population, a small patriotic party could - in theory - grab 8 senate seats over two election cycles with as few as 210,000 votes in each election.
All it would take is a VERY popular Tasmanian at the top of the ticket.
How about the Punter Party?
All it would take is a VERY popular Tasmanian at the top of the ticket.
How about the Punter Party?
Could Ricky Ponting grab 58% of the Tasmanian vote & seize the balance of power in the senate?
I don’t know. But there does seem to be a strong case to be made for small parties devoting a lot of effort to convincing Tasmanians to support them.
Or am I missing something?
I don’t know. But there does seem to be a strong case to be made for small parties devoting a lot of effort to convincing Tasmanians to support them.
Or am I missing something?
Lee Hanson fell well short of winning a seat this year, but it doesn’t take many Tasmanians to send Jacqui Lambie to Canberra.
Would be great if Tassie could show the way for how a small party can win voters away from the uniparty.
Would be great if Tassie could show the way for how a small party can win voters away from the uniparty.
Step 1:
Run down the number of temporary visas to a reasonable level & then maintain at this level.
Step 2:
Set annual issuance of permanent visas at one-third of prior year’s natural increase (births minus deaths).
Result:
Natural increase makes up 75% of population growth.
Run down the number of temporary visas to a reasonable level & then maintain at this level.
Step 2:
Set annual issuance of permanent visas at one-third of prior year’s natural increase (births minus deaths).
Result:
Natural increase makes up 75% of population growth.
Right now we have the split the other way, with natural increase only about 20-30% of our population growth.
That guarantees cultural fragmentation & weaker social cohesion. A nation of strangers.
We should be making most of the new people here ourselves, not importing them.
That guarantees cultural fragmentation & weaker social cohesion. A nation of strangers.
We should be making most of the new people here ourselves, not importing them.
This would obviously reduce population growth & headline GDP growth.
But productivity & per capita GDP growth would likely increase, if we are smart.
It would also make housing much more affordable & boost real wages.
But productivity & per capita GDP growth would likely increase, if we are smart.
It would also make housing much more affordable & boost real wages.
It's easy to forget just how huge & profound the increase in the world population has been.
People turning 100 this year were born in a world with about 2 billion people. That doubled to about 4 billion when they were 50 & has now doubled again to just over 8 billion.
People turning 100 this year were born in a world with about 2 billion people. That doubled to about 4 billion when they were 50 & has now doubled again to just over 8 billion.
Data here. Source is Grok, so usual caveats apply. But looks plausible to me.
Huge increases for both sub-Saharan Africa & India since 1975, largely reflecting the impact of vaccines, antibiotics & high-yield crops.
Slower Chinese growth driven by one-child policy.
Huge increases for both sub-Saharan Africa & India since 1975, largely reflecting the impact of vaccines, antibiotics & high-yield crops.
Slower Chinese growth driven by one-child policy.
Despite the world wars, the white population nearly doubled from 1900 to 1975. But then we really took to the Pill & have added only an extra 129 million since.
We were never going to match the huge growth seen elsewhere (r v K etc.), but there certainly should be more of us.
We were never going to match the huge growth seen elsewhere (r v K etc.), but there certainly should be more of us.
This is the most egregious example I’ve personally encountered, but it reflects a mindset common among national socialists who claim to be“nationalists”.
They are ideologues, not nationalists. They have solidarity only for those of their nation who also share their ideology.
They are ideologues, not nationalists. They have solidarity only for those of their nation who also share their ideology.
These people consider their compatriots to be enemies & traitors to their nation if they do not accept their ideology. Several of them fantasise about the violence they would inflict on their compatriots if they could do so.
Their loyalty is to their ideology, not their nation.
Their loyalty is to their ideology, not their nation.
On this platform I see what national socialists think about their compatriots who disagree with them. They see opposition as treason.
If they had their way, their compatriots would be slaves who would be too fearful to resist their masters.
And they call that “patriotism”.
If they had their way, their compatriots would be slaves who would be too fearful to resist their masters.
And they call that “patriotism”.
I own 4 assisted living facilities in Phoenix.
Over 10 years, I've sent 8 people home.
Here are 8 insights about elderly care that most people never hear:
Over 10 years, I've sent 8 people home.
Here are 8 insights about elderly care that most people never hear:
1) The payment system is backwards
Level 1 care: $158/day
Level 2 care: $203/day
Level 3 care: $248/day
When I improve someone from Level 3 to Level 1, my rate drops $90/day.
The sicker they are, the more I get paid. That's the incentive structure.
Level 1 care: $158/day
Level 2 care: $203/day
Level 3 care: $248/day
When I improve someone from Level 3 to Level 1, my rate drops $90/day.
The sicker they are, the more I get paid. That's the incentive structure.
2) Medication overload is the norm
The average resident in Phoenix homes is on 48 medications.
Absurd.
We actively work with our doctors to carefully deprescribe as many meds as we can.
Our biggest win was helping one resident from 54 meds down to 22 to living independently.
The average resident in Phoenix homes is on 48 medications.
Absurd.
We actively work with our doctors to carefully deprescribe as many meds as we can.
Our biggest win was helping one resident from 54 meds down to 22 to living independently.
“Ben tarla aldım, imara yakın bölgede bekledim. İmar gelince benden de %90 mı gidiyor?”
Hayır. Bu iş öyle değil.
Buradaki en büyük yanlış anlama şu:
Bu uygulama herkesin tarlasına, herkese gelen imara otomatik uygulanmıyor.
Bu düzenleme yalnızca şuna uygulanır:
📌 Yeni bir imar planı hazırlanırken, planın kendisinin yarattığı “ekstra değere” yönelik.
Yani devlet şunu diyor:
“Ben bu bölgeye yol, okul, park, altyapı getiriyorum. Bu planla birlikte arazi bir gecede 10 katına çıkıyor. Senin hiç bir şey yapmadan oluşan plan kaynaklı artışın bir kısmı kamuya döner.”
Burada kritik çizgi şudur:👇
Hayır. Bu iş öyle değil.
Buradaki en büyük yanlış anlama şu:
Bu uygulama herkesin tarlasına, herkese gelen imara otomatik uygulanmıyor.
Bu düzenleme yalnızca şuna uygulanır:
📌 Yeni bir imar planı hazırlanırken, planın kendisinin yarattığı “ekstra değere” yönelik.
Yani devlet şunu diyor:
“Ben bu bölgeye yol, okul, park, altyapı getiriyorum. Bu planla birlikte arazi bir gecede 10 katına çıkıyor. Senin hiç bir şey yapmadan oluşan plan kaynaklı artışın bir kısmı kamuya döner.”
Burada kritik çizgi şudur:👇
1️⃣ Bu uygulama her imara giren araziye otomatik uygulanmaz.
Sadece plan yapılırken ve imar hakları ilk kez belirlenirken gündeme gelir.
Yani bölgede plan süreci başlamadan önce aldığın tarla → imara girdiğinde tüm değer senindir.
10 yıl beklemişsin, sabretmişsin, yatırım yapmışsın…
Bunun karşılığı sende kalır.
Sadece plan yapılırken ve imar hakları ilk kez belirlenirken gündeme gelir.
Yani bölgede plan süreci başlamadan önce aldığın tarla → imara girdiğinde tüm değer senindir.
10 yıl beklemişsin, sabretmişsin, yatırım yapmışsın…
Bunun karşılığı sende kalır.
2️⃣ Senin yıllarca beklediğin değer + piyasa artışı + bölgesel gelişme → hepsi sana ait.
Düzenlemenin hedefi: Bir gecede “kâğıt üzerinde” oluşan 10 katlık imar farkının tamamının özel kişiye gitmemesi.
Ama sen zaten zaman, para, emek, risk koymuşsun.
Beklemişsin.
Bölge gelişmiş.
Fiyat yükselmiş.
Bu senin değerindir, kimse dokunamaz.
Düzenlemenin hedefi: Bir gecede “kâğıt üzerinde” oluşan 10 katlık imar farkının tamamının özel kişiye gitmemesi.
Ama sen zaten zaman, para, emek, risk koymuşsun.
Beklemişsin.
Bölge gelişmiş.
Fiyat yükselmiş.
Bu senin değerindir, kimse dokunamaz.
Si è tanto parlato della #famiglia nel #bosco. Ma qualcuno ha letto le carte?
Io l'ho fatto, almeno quelle diffuse. Senza giudizi preventivi ecco cosa ho capito e trovato.
Un thread
Io l'ho fatto, almeno quelle diffuse. Senza giudizi preventivi ecco cosa ho capito e trovato.
Un thread
Ecco un’analisi oggettiva, senza valutazioni politiche o morali.
Intanto il contesto del provvedimento.
Il documento è un’ordinanza del Tribunale per i Minori dell’Aquila, riferita a tre minori appartenenti alla stessa famiglia.
Intanto il contesto del provvedimento.
Il documento è un’ordinanza del Tribunale per i Minori dell’Aquila, riferita a tre minori appartenenti alla stessa famiglia.
Arriva dopo un percorso già iniziato mesi prima, con:
segnalazioni del Servizio Sociale;
interventi dei Carabinieri;
accessi al pronto soccorso;
visite domiciliari;
relazioni tecniche.
segnalazioni del Servizio Sociale;
interventi dei Carabinieri;
accessi al pronto soccorso;
visite domiciliari;
relazioni tecniche.
A Major Financial Event Is Imminent in 2026 ,And the Cause Is Already Visible (a thread)
1/15
A major global financial event is coming in 2026.
Not a banking collapse.
Not a recession story.
This time, the sovereign bond market itself is the risk.
And the first warning Sign is MOVE index.
Here’s the full chain →
1/15
A major global financial event is coming in 2026.
Not a banking collapse.
Not a recession story.
This time, the sovereign bond market itself is the risk.
And the first warning Sign is MOVE index.
Here’s the full chain →
2/
The world has three pressure points that are quietly becoming unstable at the same time:
1️⃣ U.S. Treasury funding
2️⃣ Japan’s yen/carry structure
3️⃣ China’s credit system
Any ONE of these snapping will trigger a global chain reaction.
2026 is the convergence point.
The world has three pressure points that are quietly becoming unstable at the same time:
1️⃣ U.S. Treasury funding
2️⃣ Japan’s yen/carry structure
3️⃣ China’s credit system
Any ONE of these snapping will trigger a global chain reaction.
2026 is the convergence point.
3/
Let’s start with the actual cause building right now:
A U.S. Treasury Funding Shock.
The U.S. must issue record debt in 2026:
deficits exploding
interest cost rising
foreign demand shrinking
dealers overloaded
auctions weakening
This is the perfect setup for a failed or stressed long-end auction.
Let’s start with the actual cause building right now:
A U.S. Treasury Funding Shock.
The U.S. must issue record debt in 2026:
deficits exploding
interest cost rising
foreign demand shrinking
dealers overloaded
auctions weakening
This is the perfect setup for a failed or stressed long-end auction.
@victorespinoza_ @Prof_Bejar @perezricart @CIDE_MX @depCIDE @UnrollThread
@victorespinoza_ @Prof_Bejar @perezricart @CIDE_MX @depCIDE @UnrollThread @threadreaderapp
I have been to Ukraine every year since 2011. I warned that war was coming in late 2021 and early 2021 and when it came I warned that Ukraine could not hope to win a protracted conflict. No doubt busy people cannot read all that I write, but here are the key pieces. 1/10
"Putin’s Ukrainian War Is About Making Vladimir Great Again. Current conditions are ideal for a Russian invasion, but the historical inspiration is more tsarist than soviet." (Jan. 2, 2022) 2/10 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
"The Fates of Ukraine and Putin Turn on 7 Forces of History. Does Russia grind out victory? Can sanctions stop that? Might Putin go nuclear? Is China for war or peace? The past offers clues, but no certain answers."
(March 9, 2022) 3/10 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
(March 9, 2022) 3/10 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…