Thread by @hayward_katy

Of all the crud thrown around in #NoDeal #Brexit hubris, the ‘Ireland as hostage in suicide threat’ meme has to be one of the worst.

#FriendlyNeighbours

express.co.uk/news/uk/115133…

After meeting Barnier yesterday, Barclay said:
“I think the impact of no-deal is greater to the Irish economy than it is in the UK. So the EU want to avoid no-deal.”

That ‘I think’ is doing a lot of work there.

In that it isn't quite accurate.
2/

The fact is that, sure, Ireland will be deeply affected by #NoDeal, and in an intrinsically negative way.

Economic analysis predicts a fall of around 0.5-1.5% in GDP in the year afterwards, with a cumulative effect of -4.5% by 2023.
3/
irishtimes.com/business/econo…

This compares to predictions from the Bank of England that No Deal would see GDP fall in the UK by 8% in the first year.

4/
theguardian.com/business/2018/…

But the most important thing to be aware of -- and why any suggestion of Ireland being collateral is invidious -- is that the point at which Britain and Ireland are most closely tied together is Northern Ireland.
5/

And, as the UK hurtles off a cliff clutching Ireland to its breast, the part of these entwined isles that will hit the ground first and hardest is Northern Ireland.

6/

The economic consequences of No Deal for Northern Ireland has been spelled out in stark terms today in the paper released by the NI Department for the Economy.
7/
economy-ni.gov.uk/publications/n…

The social and political consequences of #NoDeal for Northern Ireland are immense and complex.

And genuinely alarming for people living in NI and the Irish border region.

Some of them are set out in the Irish government's Contingency Action Plan published y'day.
8/

Highlighting the severe risks to Ireland in a #NoDeal only underlines the close connections between these islands + the acute vulnerability of N.Ireland.

Exploiting that vulnerability is not only risky game play, it causes untold damage to trust of GB in NI, IRL & the EU.
9/END