Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NoDeal

Most recents (24)

It's now painfully clear and beyond any doubt: 1. That the sunny, cost-free, easy-access uplands, posited by the Brexit cult, are mendacious fantasy. 2. That the ever-growing costs, downsides and consequences of Brexit are very real and intellectually indisputable.
#BrexitChaos
We may tire of confronting the undisputed opportunity costs* of #Brexit #CatastrophUK (c.£130bn so far, rising at c.£1.2bn weekly) but our *GDP *Currency *Property Values *Stock Market *Govt Borrowing *Ongoing #Brexodus (ref: @uk_domain_names) combine to drag the UK backwards.
Read 5 tweets
Masterclass from @MRJKilcoyne of AdamSmithInst on getting 8 Right Wing Leave tropes into 36 secs of bile.

00:01: "no matter what _colour_ of opp..."

00:03: "usurp".

00:08: "motley crew"

00:23: "_plots_ to *stop Brexit*"

00:28: "nationalists"

This needs calling out.

1/2
@MRJKilcoyne 2/2

To be fair, @AnnaJonesSky does call him out on the "stop brexit" nonsense, pointing out that the aim of discussions is to >>stop #NoDeal<<.

But the rest of his prejudicial propagandizing goes unchallenged.
@MRJKilcoyne @AnnaJonesSky PS:

So: ves-te'n a cagar, Mr Kilcoyne.
Read 3 tweets
Some ppl seem to think that the 'job creation' effect of #freeports works on the 'more=better' principle. It doesn't. Creating more of them won't create more jobs out of thin air.
This is not a solution. Investing to create 13 of them is just wasting money. /1
It seems like these ppl think that this will attract businesses and activity from all over the world. It won't. Some companies might take advantage IF it fits with their supply chains etc. But there would have to be benefits and with ND tariffs what are they? /2
Many companies that would find it beneficial are already set up for IPR and won't relocate. For others currently little incentives. Limited by demand, existing supply chains, shipping routs and lack of incentives. /3
Read 4 tweets
Confirmed: German #GDP also fell in Q2, by 0.1% q/q. Indeed, German GDP is now only 0.4% higher than a year ago, compared to growth of 1.2% in the UK. The equivalent figure of 1.1% for the euro zone as a whole is now likely to be revised down too... (1/4)
The original timing of #Brexit played a part in the fall in German GDP in Q2 too, as activity (eg exports to UK) was brought forward to Q1. But Germany is also more exposed to global trade wars and the #auto crisis, and worried about its currency becoming too *strong*... (2/4)
What’s more, in contrast to the stabilisation in (most) business surveys in the UK, conditions in Germany are continuing to worsen. See, in particular, the July #IFO and #PMIs, and the latest #ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for August (the lowest since December 2011). (3/4)
Read 6 tweets
THREAD👇13 automotive #Brexit myths – busted

MYTH 1: The automotive industry shouldn’t worry about leaving the EU with #nodeal

TRUTH: Leaving without a deal would trigger the most seismic shift in trading conditions UK Automotive has ever experienced
smmt.co.uk/2019/03/13-aut…
MYTH 2: This is just the automotive industry scaremongering

TRUTH: This is a cyclical sector & other issues are also undermining global growth but companies surveyed said Brexit was costing jobs & competitiveness
smmt.co.uk/2019/03/13-aut…
MYTH 3: Industry is blaming Brexit but the problem is falling diesel sales & the slowdown in global markets

TRUTH: These are issues challenging the global industry but uncertainty is causing investors to look elsewhere
smmt.co.uk/2019/03/13-aut…
Read 13 tweets
UK's HUGE #Brexit threat stems from a bizarre & unprecedented confluence of 5 Groupings: 1/Political #Blukip Zealots/Little Englanders 2/Badly-informed & Manipulated Masses, 3/Dominant UK Media interests 4/FarRightRussian/USA/powers 5/Ultra-rich Financiers & Offshore Moguls. 1/10
Drill down: 1/#Blukip has been 'on this' for years. If not led by Dr Snake Oil himself #FarRightRage then by someone else? English Nationalism has been SO easy to stoke, in a totally policy-free way!, with Scottish Nationalism pushing its case daily and pissing off Anglos. 2/10
2/ Badly-informed/Manipulated Masses have been an easy target after years of Tory Austerity. They are 'useful idiots' to the four more deadly & focused groupings. Spoiler alert! They'll also be, by FAR, the very hardest HIT, so expect a backlash - when they finally wake up! 3/10
Read 17 tweets
This @thetimes article on Dominic #Cummings is Cummings’ & #No10’s spin to rehabilitate him after recent media attacks. It may work, because, typically, it conceals well its aim... However, it reveals also worrying traits. See below 1/several...
thetimes.co.uk/article/domini…
1. #Cummings was mentored at #Oxford by Prof Norman Stone. theguardian.com/books/2019/jun…
2. He had ‘an unsuccessful spell setting up an airline in post-communist #Russia.’
3. Cameron described him as a ‘career psychopath’.
4. His wife is @spectator writer Mary Wakefield. 2/several
5. He deliberately got himself, wearing T-shirt & jeans - in famous photo of #Johnson being welcomed by Sir Mark Sedwill in No10.
6. He is not a back-room operator. He loves the limelight. [hence the film ‘The Uncivil War’ and this article...] 3/several
Read 5 tweets
Exactly. SM borders need to be treated equally. If nothing else an departure from this could cause protests from other neighbouring countries. Trust in SM is also important for third countries, e.g. the ones that have an FTA with the EU /1
George makes a very important point- the issue doesn't go away with #NoDeal. Let's remember that the Gov nodeal plan for NI, the TSP, was pretty much to ignore the border - no checks, no nothing. This is not a solution /2

It puts the EU in a very difficult position. Of course some will say "who cares". But in reality it's not good for Ni and RoI and this is something everyone in the UK should care about. Finding a solution to @BorderIrish will make or brake any #Brexit outcome /3
Read 5 tweets
PM Johnson has made the removal of the #backstop the make-or-break matter when it comes to an exit deal with the EU.

So this thing is pretty damn important.

Time for a quick recap of what the 'loathed and detested' backstop actually is?

1/14
The #backstop is there specifically to meet the UK’s commitments to avoid a hard Irish border & protect the 1998 Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement & peace process.

This isn’t just of benefit or interest to the island of Ireland.
A broken Northern Ireland means a limping UK.
2/14
How does the #backstop work?
A v.brief explanation:

Having to apply & enforce customs procedures & rules around market access makes a border ‘hard’.
(just talking trade here)

Put simply, the greater the hassle in getting goods across a border, the harder that border is.

3/14
Read 14 tweets
A thread on the latest CPA construction forecasts & 'No Deal' scenario (I'll summarise the results initially and then provide background/context)...
#ukconstruction #ukhousing #Brexit #NoDeal
The CPA is forecasting that construction output will fall marginally (-0.3%) in 2019 & grow by 1.0% in 2020 assuming a smooth Brexit (either the Withdrawal Agreement with a fudge on the backstop or another delay to Article 50)...
#ukconstruction
... but construction activity is mixed by region & sector. Infrastructure, housing (North West, Yorkshire & Midlands) & industrial warehouses growth offsets falls in commercial, industrial factories & housing (London, South East & parts of the East)...
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
Read 31 tweets
The Tories have steadfastly ignored the democratically expressed will of Scotland’s voters and parliament to stay in the EU. Now we face a no deal Brexit with potentially catastrophic damage to Scotland’s economy, society & culture.
It is unconscionable that the incoming PM should simply do away with the Westminster Parliament to make #NoDeal the default. We must take all steps we can to prevent prorogation. Please support our cross party action in the Scottish courts
Read 3 tweets
Whether we’re talking about some sort of alternative arrangements for @BorderIrish or just coping with increased no of #customs declarations after #Brexit (especially under #nodeal ) it all comes down to customs systems /1

theregister.co.uk/2019/07/18/mak…
Some like the #AAC claim that it would be sufficient to use existing systems and processes to solve the NI border. All you would need is to adapt them slightly. Which doesn't seem to be a big deal (I'm not going to go into detail here on the AAC plan-just focusing on systems) /2
I've mentioned this several times before - an update from UK's current customs IT system CHIEF to the new version CDS started years back, before the referendum. The article provides an update on the progress. TL:DR it's not ready for Brexit /3
Read 8 tweets
Just wondering who is the real Jo Johnson? 🤔🤔🤔

The one who wanted a #PeoplesVote & allegedly resigned because of it only last November

or the one campaigning with a brother who wants to drag UK out of EU with #NoDeal?

🤔
The one who defends his brother's #Watermelon comments, & nominated T Young, prince of leerage, to Office for Students, or the sensitive accordion player 🤔
The Jo Johnson who followed his brother into #BullingdonClub, who was a May cabinet minister during #Windrush mess, or supportive husband of journalist who exposed it?

Or is he just better at concealing his opportunism & power-seeking than his brother (not a high bar, granted)
Read 4 tweets
Of all the crud thrown around in #NoDeal #Brexit hubris, the ‘Ireland as hostage in suicide threat’ meme has to be one of the worst.

#FriendlyNeighbours

express.co.uk/news/uk/115133…
After meeting Barnier yesterday, Barclay said:
“I think the impact of no-deal is greater to the Irish economy than it is in the UK. So the EU want to avoid no-deal.”

That ‘I think’ is doing a lot of work there.

In that it isn't quite accurate.
2/
The fact is that, sure, Ireland will be deeply affected by #NoDeal, and in an intrinsically negative way.

Economic analysis predicts a fall of around 0.5-1.5% in GDP in the year afterwards, with a cumulative effect of -4.5% by 2023.
3/
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Read 9 tweets
Karen Wheeler (formerly of UK govt #Border Delivery group) made some interesting points at @ifgevents #IfGBrexit today.*
Here's a v.brief summary.
1/5

*[so did @AllieRenison and @Lorand_Bartels too, you won't be surprised to hear]
She said UK govt has been trying to guide UK businesses in prep for #NoDeal but particularly difficult for NI.
'Cos v. unclear how IRL wd deal with border.

Without knowing arrangements on the other side, it is extremely difficult for cross-border traders to prepare/comply.

2/5
This leaves NI businesses at a heavy disadvantage in a No Deal, being only prepared for the UK side of trade.

Worsened, she noted, by high number of small businesses in cross-border trade.

Unilateral policy of the UK for land border in a No Deal thus 'somewhat difficult'.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
If people are just seeing news re: Beckett/Grieve ams tabled to so-called '#estimates', we flagged this summer's estimates process in a recent piece - see below. (Short thread) 1/
The Beckett/Grieve ams are tabled to the motions to authorise the 2019-20 spending of depts whose estimates have been chosen by the Backbench Business C'tee for separate debate & vote (this yr, 4 depts - DFID, DoE, DWP, HCLG). Motions & ams are here: 2/ publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cm…
The Beckett/Grieve ams seek to make parliamentary authorisation for these 4 depts' 2019-20 spending conditional on either the UK leaving the EU only with a Withdrawal Agreement, or approval by the Commons of a motion giving explicit approval for a #nodeal Brexit. 3/
Read 5 tweets
How to mitigate #NoDeal for the Irish border?

I've now read the report top EU customs experts Pickett & Lux wrote for NI Dept for the Economy on this. Not easy reading ⚠️

Here’s a few highlights.
(For further analysis see the incomparable @PMDFoster)
1/9
economy-ni.gov.uk/publications/i…
First, context:
90% of NI businesses who export to EU trade across @BorderIrish.
94% of NI bus. exporting south are micro- or small enterprises
(Significant, for reasons we’ll return to)
A third of value NI exports to ROI is ‘food & live animals’
(We'll also return to this).
2/9
Second, a reminder of what trading across EU customs border means:
💳providing guarantees for customs debts,
💷payment of customs duties & import VAT
🎫applying for authorisations
🛃complying with customs formalities
📒est. operating procedures for dealing with customs
3/9
Read 9 tweets
Nice summary of some of Brexit's unanswered questions. One the first point - trucks will show up at the border without the right paperwork. They do now and it will continue post #Brexit no matter whether we have a deal or not /1

igd.com/articles/artic…
Pre-border checks might be a way to mitigate that but create another layer of admin. This means that instead of having just admin at the border, under #NoDeal TSPs we would have 3 different customs checkpoints, at different times and locations:
/2
1) pre-border checks
2) minimal border procedures (TSP)
3) post-import/export supplementary admin procedure (TSP)

So while border procedure becomes simpler, the overall time/effort required increases
/3
Read 4 tweets
So #NoDeal holds No Fear for 3 of the remaining 6 Tory contenders? They assume such bravado gives leverage against the EU.

Perhaps now wd be a good time to check on how prepared UK is compared to the EU, which published its latest update this week.
eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?…
1/11
There are only 3 possible outcomes: No Brexit; Deal; No Deal.
Little sign yet of a 2nd ref.
Deal comes thru UK ratifying #WithdrawalAgreement.

No Deal = if UK fails to do so
+ there is EITHER (i) no UK request for an extension
OR (ii) no unanimous EU27 approval for one.

2/11
#NoDeal requires legislation [unless it really is apocalypse they're after].

EU Commission’s tally: 18 out of the 19 legislative proposals needed to prepare for Brexit have been adopted (19th due this month).
+ 63 non-legislative acts adopted. Doesn't see a need for more.

3/11
Read 12 tweets
A lot of guff today (only a little of it from Boris!) on the £39bn #Brexit ‘divorce bill’ which the UK is expected to pay as part of May's deal. The key point is that the £39bn is meant to honour commitments *already made* during the period of the UK’s membership... (1/8)
It is therefore simply wrong for #Remainers to claim that the £39bn is a ‘cost’ of Brexit that we could avoid by staying in (and that it should have been on the side of a bus too). In reality, the £39bn is money the UK would have had to pay anyway, even if still a member… (2/8)
However, it would also be wrong to assume that we would save the whole £39bn by leaving with #nodeal. I’m well aware that many experts (including a HoL committee) have argued that the UK would be on strong *legal* ground if we decided to walk away without paying a penny… (3/8)
Read 9 tweets
THREAD 👇 13 automotive #Brexit myths – busted

MYTH 1: The automotive industry shouldn’t worry about leaving the EU with #nodeal

TRUTH: Leaving without a deal would trigger the most seismic shift in trading conditions UK Automotive has ever experienced smmt.co.uk/2019/03/13-aut…
MYTH 2: This is just the automotive industry scaremongering

TRUTH: This is a cyclical sector & other issues are also undermining global growth but companies surveyed said Brexit was costing jobs & competitiveness smmt.co.uk/2019/03/13-aut…
MYTH 3: Industry is blaming Brexit but the problem is falling diesel sales & the slowdown in global markets

TRUTH: These are issues challenging the global industry but uncertainty is causing investors to look elsewhere smmt.co.uk/2019/03/13-aut…
Read 13 tweets
Farmers face the biggest Brexit hit and still they don’t think they need to worry! THREAD
In a grim report published on Friday, the #government Agricultural, Horticultural and Development Board @TheAHDB predicted that post-Brexit #farming incomes would fall by 25%. @FarmingUK /1
This wasn’t just in an apocalyptic #NoDeal scenario. If it was, farmers seeing this figure could mutter Project Fear and carry on their arduous work. The problem is that this collapse occurs IN ANY BREXIT SCENARIO @bbcfarmingtoday. /2
It is no exaggeration that entire enterprises, for example poultry production, could be unviable if the AHDB predictions are correct as @RCorbettMEP notes. This is a problem because, in Shropshire @BBCShropshire poultry accounts for 86% of all cattle and livestock. /3
Read 21 tweets
Vamos explicar un poco el registro del 'Settlement Scheme' y aclarar algunos términos y plazos #DentroHilo
Es obligatorio registrarse en el 'Settlement Scheme'. Para ello las autoridades británicas han sacado una app llamada: 'EU Exit: ID Document Check'.

Será necesario realizarlo con un dispositivo Android 6.0 o superior y que disponga de NFC (lo que permite paga con contactless)
La aplicación solicitará pruebas de identidad, de residencia (normalmente con el NIN es suficiente) y habrá que responder un par de preguntas sobre antecedentes penales. Además solicitará el escaneo del pasaporte, del chip, del rostro y la realización de una foto.
Read 6 tweets
@theresa_may It's clear this is a BREXIT-BETRAYAL
History will not be kind to those MP's who think this BETRAYAL is better than #NoDeal
Remaining part of the EU is not a solution. You have to fight an election. #NODEAL - WALK AWAY
@theresa_may There is a difference between compromise and surrender.
History will not be kind to those MP's who think this BETRAYAL is better than #NoDEAL
Remaining part of the EU, Staying in customs union, closely aligned to a single market is not leaving the EU.
@theresa_may A 2nd Vote means democracy is broken. Anyone claiming the legitimacy of the 1st vote was not valid, is setting president that any referendum result can be ignored if you dont like the result. It makes a mockery of referendums and a mockery of democracy.
Read 11 tweets

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