Thread by @gbponz

ITALY: imho, Salvini needed the survival of M5S to a final vote on #TAV, where the opposition would furnish sufficient "yes" votes for the project to go on with #EU money while M5S, party which is part of the government, would vote AGAINST. (1/n)

That happened on August 7th ( bit.ly/2Hd1QtV ).
But to see why that was important, let me remind you that M5S is actually born out of the Anti- TAV movement, not the other way around. (2/n)

Especially here in Turin, where M5S are in power, the two are joined at the hips. Let's see the situation from M5S angle first. They vote Yes to TAV, they lose most of their support base, on top of the losses incurred in the recent local elections. (3/n)

If they vote No AND THE OTHER PARTIES IN PARLIAMENT DON'T VOTE FOR #TAV, with high probability the government falls and either a new government is formed without them or (horror!) there's a snap election, in which most of them go home, mostly to do nothing.(4/n)

I even thought that there was a chance to put them right into oblivion figures (<10%), especially if they had to vote yes to grind it out. Obviously in that case they HAD TO go the length at all cost, to try to recoup some consensus.(5/n)

Obviously, this race for survival would have depended on Lega cooperating, meaning that Salvini could have extracted anything. Alas, that was not to be. an overbearing Salvini in power had to do something, and pay for consequences. Life expectancy? (6/n)

Alas, the opposition imho fell on the sword. they had reasons for that, they had campaigned in favor of #TAV and the great unwashed do not appreciate when the powerful game the system. Elections are frequent here. (7/n)

And Salvini NEEDS the M5S to stay relevant. funny that #PD, where "Pas d'ennemis à gauche ! " was a battle cry, helped the most dangerous to survive. THAT's what keeps Salvini relevant, even now: #PD is limited in a push toward centrist position by M5S scooping the leavers. (8/n)

bear in mind that this is not "hard facts". it is simply my filter to look at reality.... but it fits so far. feel free to think otherwise, I might do as well, even now. #Occam
So, Salvini is now out of the big game...or is he? (9/n)

bear in mind that I am not qualified to judge on his policies, provided he has them. let's just say that his party is not studded with experienced industry managers and well regarded experts in any policy field. I'd be surprised if he cared. (10/n)

what he has proven good at is getting votes, namely votes in a ever more abstaining Italy, where people do not bother any more. why should they? neither of the governing parties had told voters they'd consider this alliance BEFORE the ballot. (11/n)

moreover, no hemisemidemiofficial displeasure for the fact has ever traspired. the glitterati, fed by a constitutional doctrine where people vote but Parliament does whatever it wants, lost a chance there. (12/n)

Now, whatever government comes out will have to sort the hot coals. slowing economy. #VAT increase. PLUS, noises abound of an enhanced attention to the only point joining PD and M5S: environmental policy. That's an enemy of productivity. (13/n)

Salvini only has to survive the courts, which will have to decide if he gains more by being seen as a victim of the judiciary, an unpopular band in the dregs, or by surviving without a court summons. no bets there for me. and it's immaterial. (14/n)

I think that judicial savagery would push the electorate further to the RIGHT. Salvini is not the only one you should be aware of, and this trend is present elsewhere, see AFD.[END]

@jeuasommenulle

UPDATE: apparently PD and M5S have decided to argue about #TAV once again. Going on to prove that #PD's strategy leaves much to be desired. torino.corriere.it/politica/19_ag…