Thread by @ACLatAm

9AM TODAY: Join @ACLatAm via webcast for a discussion with @fmonaldi, @agrisanti, @AnnLeesays & Carrie Filipetti of how the shifting #China-#Venezuela relationship may influence Latin America's geopolitical and geoeconomic landscapes. atlanticcouncil.org/event/china-oi…

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays This is a real inflection point for LatAm at large and for China's role in the region. At the same time, the US has increased its engagement here and focused on transparency & capacity building, explains Carrie Filipetti of US State Dept.'s Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays When we look at China in LatAm, we're focused on 3principles: fairness, reciprocity, respect for sovereignty. And what we're seeing are some major gaps between these principles and the nature of China's ongoing engagement with the region, says Carrie Filipetti #ACVenezuela

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays China's priorities in the region, as evidenced by the BRI, stem from China's pursuit of domestic economic growth, peace and stability, explains @AnnLeesays #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays When it comes to China's impression of Venezuela, it's likely that Beijing sees global opposition to the Maduro regime as both a violation of Venezuelan sovereignty as well as an existential threat to China's own sovereignty, remarks @AnnLeesays #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays There's an obvious strategic explanation behind China's interest in engagement with Latin America. China is the largest consumer of natural resource commodities, fuels and other products in large supply in the region, says @fmonaldi #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays And from the Latin American perspective, engagement with China proved an attractive alternative to engagement with Western governments and many multilateral institutions during last decade's commodities boom, explains @fmonaldi #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays Venezuela's 2020 #oil production is projected to be between 420k - 600k bpd, which is far lower than peak levels. Nevertheless, oil is central to the Venezuelan economy and, as a result, is central to its relationship with China, comments @jmarczak #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak According to PDVSA Director @agrisanti, Venezuela's oil production has contracted by at least 50% and, in light of new sanctions, it's likely that this downward trend will remain in place. Why? The Maduro regime has grossly mismanaged the sector #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak Venezuela should be producing 5 million barrels, but the Maduro regime has failed in this regard despite inheriting both an enormous windfall generated during the commodities boom as well as nearly 1 million barrels of additional capacity from Chávez, says @fmonaldi #ACVenezuela

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak Prior to Chávez, the VZ-China relationship was basically nonexistent, explains @AnnLeesays. But the two countries grew extremely close under his watch that, since Maduro came to power, has continued growing and expanded beyond the extractives and energy sectors #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak China is not pushing their ideology or their way of governance on anyone in the region. They're taking a more simplistic approach that prioritizes sovereignty and the founding of enduring partnerships, a stark contrast with US foreign policy explains @AnnLeesays #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak China has a considerable amount of industrial capacity and technical expertise that it can, in effect, export to other countries in order to better access the commodities and other products they need to sustain China's growth and progress, says Professor @AnnLeesays #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak What percentage of total Chinese lending in Latin America goes to Venezuela? According to @ACLatAm's @jmarczak, that share hovers around 60%, suggesting that China has an outsize interest in Venezuela. #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak Major Chinese, Russian and US entities have active stakes in Venezuela's oil industry. Though if there is a transition and the oil industry recovers, China is perhaps best positioned to benefit, to profit from that turnaround, says @fmonaldi #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak Venezuela is starved for new investments & loans, especially in the oil sector. But neither Venezuelans nor the government can do it alone. It will require greater engagement with Russia, China and the US. Fortunately, "there is space for everybody," says @agrisanti #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak China supports the Maduro regime through more than just the oil sector, says Carrie Filipetti, and that's taking shape in two primary ways #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak First, China is supporting social control under the Maduro regime. By exporting surveillance technology and techniques, China is aiding the regime's increasingly repressive form of governance, explains Carrie Filipetti #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak And as we saw in the recent UN Human Rights Council vote, China also supports the Maduro regime in the global political arena, and is therefore actively working against the 56 countries that support a democratic transition in Venezuela, explains Carrie Filipetti #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak Again, China takes the approach that peace and stability are paramount concerns that, if secured, leads to healthier rates of growth and development, says @AnnLeesays #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak But that's not to say the US doesn't appreciate the same, says Carrie Filipetti. However, Washington is of the mind that it's the lack of peace and stability that's at the root of so much of Venezuela's ongoing political, humanitarian and economic challenges #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak We also understand that China takes a very transactional and long-term approach, so we can expect that China will be compelled to cooperate with whatever government succeeds the Maduro regime in order to protect its existing contracts predicts Carrie Filipetti #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak The Chinese government is likely so tolerant of the Maduro regime because it sees some of itself in the VZ government, and they're likely hoping that Venezuela will manage the same turnaround as China did during the Great Leap Forward for example, says @AnnLeesays #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak It's also reasonable to expect that China sees Venezuela as the next geopolitical flashpoint with the US, says @AnnLeesays. And as long as the US maintains its support of Taiwan, for instance, we can expect China will consider Venezuela as a strategic "beachhead" #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak What "red lines" would China need to cross to warrant greater US response? For one, there's the violation of US sanctions against Venezuela says Carrie Filipetti. But there's also a political dimension #ACVenezuela.

@fmonaldi @agrisanti @AnnLeesays @jmarczak Nevertheless, Washington is engaging with China on the issue of Venezuela. And Special Representative Abrams has met with Chinese officials numerous times because there remains enormous opportunity for all parties in Venezuela, says Carrie Filipetti #ACVenezuela.