A thread about the marginal seats that will decide the next election..
1. Aberdeen South
Tories ahead, but SNP could overtake them
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/aber…
2. Alyn & Deeside
Labour won last time, but Tories looking strong now
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/alyn…
3. Angus
Conservative seat, SNP within their sights
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/angus
4. Argyll & Bute
SNP margin, needs shoring up - Tories second
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/argy…
5. Ashfield
Tiny Labour majority, Tories running second and ahead in local polling
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/ashf…
6. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
Tory seat in play if enough Labour and LDems lend their support to the SNP
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/ayr-…
7. Barrow & Furness
Labour seat at high risk from Tories unless LDems lend their support
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/barr…
8. Bassetlaw
Thin majority for Labour and major Tory target - LDem votes could well be decisive
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/bass…
9. Bedford
Tiny Labour majority of 789 last time round, but there were 2,837 Lib Dem votes
Enough to prove decisive if people vote tactically
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/bedf…
10. Birmingham - Edgbaston
Tories need to win places like Edgbaston
Labour need to hang on here
Lib Dems need to lend their support
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/birm…
11. Bishop Auckland
Super Labour marginal - they only won by 502 votes in 207
Tories breathing down their necks in 2019
The Lib Dems polled 1,176 votes
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/bish…
12. Blackpool South
A left-behind town that voted Labour last time but could fall to the Tories and their Crazy Brexit Stories...
Stop the Tories by voting Labour here
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/blac…
Brecon & Radnorshire
Lib Dem marginal which the Tories need to win back
With the Brexit Party vote collapsing, they're on track to do so unless everyone else votes tactically
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/brec…
14. Buckingham
The seat of the outgoing Speaker, John Bercow
The Tactical Voting websites suggest Lib Dem but there were 8,574 Green votes last time round
If those Green votes went Lib Dem, it could get interesting
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/buck…
15. Canterbury
Super-slim LABOUR majority of just 187
TORIES are targeting this one big time
Number of LDEM votes last time: 4,561
There will doubtless have been shifts but ALL the tactical voting websites suggest voting LABOUR here
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/cant…
16. Cheadle
A Tory marginal that could swing LDEM if enough LABOUR voters lend them their support
Tory majority over the LDEMs: 4,507
Labour votes last time: 10,417
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/chea…
17. Cheltenham
Another Tory marginal that could swing back to the LDEM sif enough LABOUR voters lend their support
Tory majority over the LDEMs: 2,569
That's less than half the votes that LABOUR got last time: 5,408
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/chel…
18. Chipping Barnet
A really TINY TORY majority of just 353 over LABOUR last time round
The LDEMs polled 3,012
If just 177 of them switched to LABOUR, it could spell curtains for the Conservatives
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/chip…
19. Colne Valley
Another tiny LAB/CON marginal where LDEMs need to vote tactically to help defeat Boris Johnson and his band of filthy toerags
LAB majority: 915
LDEMs last time: 2,494
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/coln…
20. Crewe & Nantwich
The TORIES must feel they've got this one in the bag
LABOUR are defending a majority of just 48
Now, more than ever, we need to vote tactically to defeat Johnson, Rees Mogg, Gove, Raab and Patel
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/crew…
21. Dewsbury
Another LAB/CON marginal and a KEY TORY TARGET where voting for the LDEMs will likely gift Boris Johnson a seat
LAB defending a majority of: 3,321
LDEMs last time got: 1,214
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/dews…
22. Dudley North
LABOUR's majority in Dudley North: 22
TOP TORY TARGET
UKIP voters likely to swing behind Johnson
Only tactical voting will keep it safe
LDEM votes last time: 368
GREEN votes last time: 240
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/dudl…
23. Dumfries & Galloway
A solid Remain constituency that fell for Ruth Davidson
CON share of the vote: 43%
SNP share of the vote: 32%
LAB share of the vote: 21%
LDEM share of the vote: 2%
It's obvious: LAB and LDEM vote SNP
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/dumf…
24. Eastbourne
Tactical voting worked in 2017: the LDEMs took the seat from the TORIES
But they won't keep it without another bout of... you guessed it... TACTICAL VOTING
LDEM majority: 1,609
UKIP vote last time: 6,139
LAB/GREEN combined vote: 5,494
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/east…
25. Gower
Unless LABOUR hang on to seats like Gower...
... we'll get FIVE YEARS OF BORIS JOHNSON'S BREXIT
PC and LDEM voters... you know what your duty is
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/gower
26. Great Grimsby
Why do we need tactical voting so badly?
Because the Tories are likely to pick swathes of seats
Great Grimsby has been LABOUR for 74 years
But now trail in polls
Lost seats here and there MUST be clawed by through tactical voting
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/grea…
27. Halifax
LAB won Halifax by just 428 votes in 2015
Tactical voting helped in 2017
We need it again in 2019
Don't be fooled by a seemingly comfortable LAB majority
This is another TORY YORKSHIRE TARGET
Every vote for the LDEMs helps Boris Johnson here
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/hali…
28. Hastings & Rye
Ultra-close CON/LAB marginal
Amber Rudd's winning margin: 346 votes
The third-placed LDEMs: 1,885 votes
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/hast…
29. High Peak
Another LAB/CON marginal where every vote for the LDEMs or GREENs makes it more likely to let in the Tories - with their fanatic ideas about WTO farming
LAB majority over CON: 2,322
LDEM votes last time: 2,669
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/high…
30. Ipswich
A rare LAB GAIN FROM CON last time round
But it'll be tighter this time
LABOUR's majority of just... 836
Last time round the LDEMs got... 1,187
And the GREENS got... 840
Just 2,227 Ipswich voters could decide if Johnson's Tories win here
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/ipsw…
31. Keighley
Another TOP TORY TARGET in Yorkshire
Tactical voting in 2017 helped LABOUR eek out a tiny majority of 239 (both LDEM and GREEN share of the vote dipped)
This seat will swing back to TORY unless everyone chips in again
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/keig…
32. Kensington
Hard to call
LAB won by 20 votes in 2017
Local polling in 2019 suggests LDEMs now closest TORY challengers
You can't win 'em all
That doesn't mean we have to give up in ALL THE OTHER CONSTITUENCIES where it's obvious who to vote for
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/kens…
33. Lewes
LDEMs must feel confident of taking some votes from the Tories here
If they could count on some #TacticalVoting from those 6,060 voters who opted for third-placed LABOUR, that could make ALL THE DIFFERENCE
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/lewes
34. Lincoln
LABOUR took Lincoln from the TORIES in 2017
They will lose it in 2019 without tactical voting
The Tories have hoovered up the UKIP/BXP vote
LAB needs help from:
LDEMs (1,284 votes last time)
GREENs (584)
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/linc…
35. Moray
A TORY GAIN from the SNP back in 2017
Needs to be an SNP GAIN from the TORIES in 2019
The only way for that to happen is through #TacticalVoting
CON majority: 4,159
LAB last time: 5,208
LDEM last time: 1,078
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/moray
36. Newcastle-under-Lyme
HYPER MARGINAL
TORIES only need 30 more votes to win
Last time, the LDEMs polled 1,624 votes
And the GREENs polled 1,246
#TacticalVoting is the way forward
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/newc…
37. North Cornwall
Last time round, the TORIES got 50% of the vote
LDEM came second
LDEM and LAB combined got 49%
LDEMs are clearly best placed to give the TORIES a run for their money
#VoteTactically
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/nort…
38. North Devon
As in North Cornwall, this is a CON/LDEM marginal
Every vote for LABOUR makes it more likely we'll wake up on Friday 13th December facing FIVE YEARS of Boris Johnson
CON majority of 4,332 is way less than the 7,063 votes LAB won in 2017
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/nort…
39. Ochil & South Perthshire
Voters here face a choice:
(A) Five years of Alexander Boris De Pfeffel Johnson; or
(B) Voting tactically for the SNP
3,359 = size of the TORY majority over the SNP
10,847 = number of votes third-placed LABOUR won
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/ochi…
40. Penistone & Stocksbridge
TOP TORY TARGET
LAB's majority just 1,322
If Brexit Party supporters vote tactically it's a TORY GAIN FROM LAB on election night
Only #TacticalVoting by LDEM voters (2,042 votes last time) can stop that from happening
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/peni…
41. Peterborough
The Jun-19 by election showed the TORIES and BXP what happened if their vote split
LABOUR won, thanks to tactical voting. But the TORIES are highly likely to regain the seat.
That's why every vote in a battleground constituency is VITAL
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/pete…
42. Portsmouth South
This is the kind of seat that LABOUR can't afford to lose
With the TORIES pressing hard, it's vital that LDEM supporters lend LABOUR a #TacticalVoting hand
Those 7,699 LDEM votes could be vital in keeping out Johnson's TORY VANDALS
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/port…
43. Pudsey
Pudsey voted Remain but has a TORY MP because the pro-Remain vote was split between LAB and LDEM
Those 1,761 LDEM voters could easily overturn the TORIES' majority of just 331 votes
We just need to get everyone to #VoteTactically
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/puds…
44. Richmond Park
Zac Goldsmith is TOAST
At least he will be if enough LABOUR supporters turn out for the LDEMs in 2019
The TORY majority of the LDEMs is a microscopic 45 votes
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/rich…
45. Scunthorpe
Between them, the LDEMs and the GREENs could easily pick up 1,000 votes
If they do, it could be bad news for LABOUR - this is another KEY TORY TARGET and if the TORIES win here, they've got FIVE MORE YEARS of power in the bag
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/scun…
46. Swindon South
Another CON/LAB marginal where LDEM voters could make all the difference...
TORY majority in 2017: 2,464
LDEM votes last time: 2,079
If you want to clip Boris Johnson's wings, you can't let him keep hold of seats like Swindon South
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/swin…
47. Southampton Itchen
ULTRA-MARGINAL LAB/CON seat where LDEM voters will determine the outcome
LAB majority in 2017: 31
LDEM votes last time: 1,421
#VoteTactically or watch Johnson's Tories sweep to power for five long years
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/sout…
48. St Ives
A fantastic opportunity for the LDEMs to spring from a solid second place to oust the TORIES
CON majority over LDEMs: 312
LAB votes last time round: 7,298
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/st-i…
49. Stirling
Stirling voted 68% Remain but suffers a TORY MP because the progressive vote was split between the SNP/LABOUR
Help right that wrong by a #TacticalVote for the SNP on 12th December
CON majority: 148
WASTED 3rd placed LAB votes: 10,902
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/stir…
50. Stroud
Stroud regularly swings back and forth between LAB and TORY
It'll return to TORY in 2019 unless the LDEMs lend LABOUR some of their support
LAB majority last time: 687
LDEM votes in 2017: 2,053
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/stro…
51. Wells
This could just about be in play for the LDEMs if Labour voters voted tactically
CON majority over LDEMs in 2017: 7,582
Votes cast for 3rd-placed LABOUR: 7,129
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/well
52. Winchester
Don't underestimate towns like Winchester
EX-TORIES are moving to the LDEMs out of disgust with Boris Johnson
But the LDEMs won't with massive help from the 6,006 people who voted LABOUR last time round
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/winc…
53. Wrexham
If LAB can't keep hold of Wrexham, we're looking at FIVE LONG YEARS of Boris Johnson
LABOUR is defending a majority of just 1,832
With the BREXIT PARTY voters turning to the TORIES, LABOUR need tactical support
GE 2017:
PC: 1,753
LDEM: 865
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/wrex…
54. Some additions...
St Albans voted strongly to Remain (62%)
Its TORY MP would be TOAST if supporters of third-placed LABOUR voted tactically for the LDEM candidate
TORY majority in 2017: 6,109
Votes for third-placed LAB in 2017: 13,137
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/st-a…
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