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Reality Bites Profile picture
@DanRealityBites
Nov 24, 2019 • 54 tweets • 36 min read • Read on X
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A thread about the marginal seats that will decide the next election..

1. Aberdeen South
Tories ahead, but SNP could overtake them
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/aber…
2. Alyn & Deeside
Labour won last time, but Tories looking strong now
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/alyn…
3. Angus
Conservative seat, SNP within their sights

#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/angus
4. Argyll & Bute
SNP margin, needs shoring up - Tories second
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/argy…
5. Ashfield
Tiny Labour majority, Tories running second and ahead in local polling

#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/ashf…
6. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock

Tory seat in play if enough Labour and LDems lend their support to the SNP
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/ayr-…
7. Barrow & Furness

Labour seat at high risk from Tories unless LDems lend their support
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/barr…
8. Bassetlaw

Thin majority for Labour and major Tory target - LDem votes could well be decisive

#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/bass…
9. Bedford

Tiny Labour majority of 789 last time round, but there were 2,837 Lib Dem votes

Enough to prove decisive if people vote tactically
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/bedf…
10. Birmingham - Edgbaston

Tories need to win places like Edgbaston
Labour need to hang on here
Lib Dems need to lend their support
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/birm…
11. Bishop Auckland

Super Labour marginal - they only won by 502 votes in 207

Tories breathing down their necks in 2019

The Lib Dems polled 1,176 votes

#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/bish…
12. Blackpool South

A left-behind town that voted Labour last time but could fall to the Tories and their Crazy Brexit Stories...

Stop the Tories by voting Labour here
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/blac…
Brecon & Radnorshire

Lib Dem marginal which the Tories need to win back
With the Brexit Party vote collapsing, they're on track to do so unless everyone else votes tactically

#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/brec…
14. Buckingham

The seat of the outgoing Speaker, John Bercow
The Tactical Voting websites suggest Lib Dem but there were 8,574 Green votes last time round

If those Green votes went Lib Dem, it could get interesting
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/buck…
15. Canterbury

Super-slim LABOUR majority of just 187
TORIES are targeting this one big time
Number of LDEM votes last time: 4,561

There will doubtless have been shifts but ALL the tactical voting websites suggest voting LABOUR here
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/cant…
16. Cheadle

A Tory marginal that could swing LDEM if enough LABOUR voters lend them their support

Tory majority over the LDEMs: 4,507
Labour votes last time: 10,417
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/chea…
17. Cheltenham

Another Tory marginal that could swing back to the LDEM sif enough LABOUR voters lend their support

Tory majority over the LDEMs: 2,569
That's less than half the votes that LABOUR got last time: 5,408
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/chel…
18. Chipping Barnet

A really TINY TORY majority of just 353 over LABOUR last time round

The LDEMs polled 3,012

If just 177 of them switched to LABOUR, it could spell curtains for the Conservatives
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/chip…
19. Colne Valley

Another tiny LAB/CON marginal where LDEMs need to vote tactically to help defeat Boris Johnson and his band of filthy toerags

LAB majority: 915
LDEMs last time: 2,494
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/coln…
20. Crewe & Nantwich

The TORIES must feel they've got this one in the bag
LABOUR are defending a majority of just 48

Now, more than ever, we need to vote tactically to defeat Johnson, Rees Mogg, Gove, Raab and Patel
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/crew…
21. Dewsbury

Another LAB/CON marginal and a KEY TORY TARGET where voting for the LDEMs will likely gift Boris Johnson a seat

LAB defending a majority of: 3,321
LDEMs last time got: 1,214
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/dews…
22. Dudley North

LABOUR's majority in Dudley North: 22

TOP TORY TARGET
UKIP voters likely to swing behind Johnson

Only tactical voting will keep it safe
LDEM votes last time: 368
GREEN votes last time: 240
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/dudl…
23. Dumfries & Galloway

A solid Remain constituency that fell for Ruth Davidson

CON share of the vote: 43%
SNP share of the vote: 32%
LAB share of the vote: 21%
LDEM share of the vote: 2%

It's obvious: LAB and LDEM vote SNP

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/dumf…
24. Eastbourne

Tactical voting worked in 2017: the LDEMs took the seat from the TORIES

But they won't keep it without another bout of... you guessed it... TACTICAL VOTING

LDEM majority: 1,609
UKIP vote last time: 6,139
LAB/GREEN combined vote: 5,494

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/east…
25. Gower

Unless LABOUR hang on to seats like Gower...
... we'll get FIVE YEARS OF BORIS JOHNSON'S BREXIT

PC and LDEM voters... you know what your duty is
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/gower
26. Great Grimsby

Why do we need tactical voting so badly?
Because the Tories are likely to pick swathes of seats

Great Grimsby has been LABOUR for 74 years
But now trail in polls

Lost seats here and there MUST be clawed by through tactical voting

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/grea…
27. Halifax

LAB won Halifax by just 428 votes in 2015
Tactical voting helped in 2017
We need it again in 2019

Don't be fooled by a seemingly comfortable LAB majority
This is another TORY YORKSHIRE TARGET

Every vote for the LDEMs helps Boris Johnson here
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/hali…
28. Hastings & Rye

Ultra-close CON/LAB marginal
Amber Rudd's winning margin: 346 votes
The third-placed LDEMs: 1,885 votes
#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/hast…
29. High Peak

Another LAB/CON marginal where every vote for the LDEMs or GREENs makes it more likely to let in the Tories - with their fanatic ideas about WTO farming

LAB majority over CON: 2,322
LDEM votes last time: 2,669

#TacticalVote

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/high…
30. Ipswich

A rare LAB GAIN FROM CON last time round
But it'll be tighter this time

LABOUR's majority of just... 836

Last time round the LDEMs got... 1,187
And the GREENS got... 840

Just 2,227 Ipswich voters could decide if Johnson's Tories win here

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/ipsw…
31. Keighley

Another TOP TORY TARGET in Yorkshire

Tactical voting in 2017 helped LABOUR eek out a tiny majority of 239 (both LDEM and GREEN share of the vote dipped)

This seat will swing back to TORY unless everyone chips in again
#TacticalVote
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/keig…
32. Kensington

Hard to call
LAB won by 20 votes in 2017

Local polling in 2019 suggests LDEMs now closest TORY challengers

You can't win 'em all

That doesn't mean we have to give up in ALL THE OTHER CONSTITUENCIES where it's obvious who to vote for

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/kens…
33. Lewes

LDEMs must feel confident of taking some votes from the Tories here

If they could count on some #TacticalVoting from those 6,060 voters who opted for third-placed LABOUR, that could make ALL THE DIFFERENCE
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/lewes
34. Lincoln

LABOUR took Lincoln from the TORIES in 2017
They will lose it in 2019 without tactical voting

The Tories have hoovered up the UKIP/BXP vote

LAB needs help from:
LDEMs (1,284 votes last time)
GREENs (584)
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/linc…
35. Moray

A TORY GAIN from the SNP back in 2017
Needs to be an SNP GAIN from the TORIES in 2019

The only way for that to happen is through #TacticalVoting
CON majority: 4,159
LAB last time: 5,208
LDEM last time: 1,078
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/moray
36. Newcastle-under-Lyme

HYPER MARGINAL
TORIES only need 30 more votes to win
Last time, the LDEMs polled 1,624 votes
And the GREENs polled 1,246
#TacticalVoting is the way forward

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/newc…
37. North Cornwall

Last time round, the TORIES got 50% of the vote
LDEM came second
LDEM and LAB combined got 49%

LDEMs are clearly best placed to give the TORIES a run for their money
#VoteTactically

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/nort…
38. North Devon

As in North Cornwall, this is a CON/LDEM marginal

Every vote for LABOUR makes it more likely we'll wake up on Friday 13th December facing FIVE YEARS of Boris Johnson

CON majority of 4,332 is way less than the 7,063 votes LAB won in 2017
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/nort…
39. Ochil & South Perthshire

Voters here face a choice:
(A) Five years of Alexander Boris De Pfeffel Johnson; or
(B) Voting tactically for the SNP

3,359 = size of the TORY majority over the SNP
10,847 = number of votes third-placed LABOUR won

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/ochi…
40. Penistone & Stocksbridge

TOP TORY TARGET
LAB's majority just 1,322

If Brexit Party supporters vote tactically it's a TORY GAIN FROM LAB on election night

Only #TacticalVoting by LDEM voters (2,042 votes last time) can stop that from happening

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/peni…
41. Peterborough

The Jun-19 by election showed the TORIES and BXP what happened if their vote split

LABOUR won, thanks to tactical voting. But the TORIES are highly likely to regain the seat.

That's why every vote in a battleground constituency is VITAL
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/pete…
42. Portsmouth South

This is the kind of seat that LABOUR can't afford to lose
With the TORIES pressing hard, it's vital that LDEM supporters lend LABOUR a #TacticalVoting hand

Those 7,699 LDEM votes could be vital in keeping out Johnson's TORY VANDALS

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/port…
43. Pudsey

Pudsey voted Remain but has a TORY MP because the pro-Remain vote was split between LAB and LDEM

Those 1,761 LDEM voters could easily overturn the TORIES' majority of just 331 votes

We just need to get everyone to #VoteTactically
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/puds…
44. Richmond Park

Zac Goldsmith is TOAST

At least he will be if enough LABOUR supporters turn out for the LDEMs in 2019

The TORY majority of the LDEMs is a microscopic 45 votes

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/rich…
45. Scunthorpe

Between them, the LDEMs and the GREENs could easily pick up 1,000 votes

If they do, it could be bad news for LABOUR - this is another KEY TORY TARGET and if the TORIES win here, they've got FIVE MORE YEARS of power in the bag

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/scun…
46. Swindon South

Another CON/LAB marginal where LDEM voters could make all the difference...

TORY majority in 2017: 2,464
LDEM votes last time: 2,079

If you want to clip Boris Johnson's wings, you can't let him keep hold of seats like Swindon South

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/swin…
47. Southampton Itchen

ULTRA-MARGINAL LAB/CON seat where LDEM voters will determine the outcome

LAB majority in 2017: 31
LDEM votes last time: 1,421

#VoteTactically or watch Johnson's Tories sweep to power for five long years

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/sout…
48. St Ives

A fantastic opportunity for the LDEMs to spring from a solid second place to oust the TORIES

CON majority over LDEMs: 312
LAB votes last time round: 7,298

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/st-i…
49. Stirling

Stirling voted 68% Remain but suffers a TORY MP because the progressive vote was split between the SNP/LABOUR

Help right that wrong by a #TacticalVote for the SNP on 12th December

CON majority: 148
WASTED 3rd placed LAB votes: 10,902
livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/stir…
50. Stroud

Stroud regularly swings back and forth between LAB and TORY

It'll return to TORY in 2019 unless the LDEMs lend LABOUR some of their support

LAB majority last time: 687
LDEM votes in 2017: 2,053

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/stro…
51. Wells

This could just about be in play for the LDEMs if Labour voters voted tactically

CON majority over LDEMs in 2017: 7,582
Votes cast for 3rd-placed LABOUR: 7,129

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/well
52. Winchester

Don't underestimate towns like Winchester
EX-TORIES are moving to the LDEMs out of disgust with Boris Johnson

But the LDEMs won't with massive help from the 6,006 people who voted LABOUR last time round

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/winc…
53. Wrexham

If LAB can't keep hold of Wrexham, we're looking at FIVE LONG YEARS of Boris Johnson

LABOUR is defending a majority of just 1,832
With the BREXIT PARTY voters turning to the TORIES, LABOUR need tactical support

GE 2017:
PC: 1,753
LDEM: 865

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/wrex…
54. Some additions...

St Albans voted strongly to Remain (62%)

Its TORY MP would be TOAST if supporters of third-placed LABOUR voted tactically for the LDEM candidate

TORY majority in 2017: 6,109
Votes for third-placed LAB in 2017: 13,137

livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/st-a…

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A handy guide to combat the drivel that Boris Johnson “got Brexit done”

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Border issue unresolved, Protocol in limbo, Stormont power-sharing suspended. UK-EU negotiations stalled. No easy solution in sight.

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The promise of the Brexiteers wasn’t just independent trade deals, it was SUPERIOR trade deals to those we could get as part of the EU. On that basis, progress is ZERO. Still no sign of a trade deal with the US. Meanwhile, UK trade is stagnating.

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Johnson repeatedly promised a “bonfire of EU regulations” to set the UK free. SIX YEARS ON from the referendum, the best that the Minister for Brexit Opportunities can point to is emergency signage in the Dartford Tunnel.

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A handy primer on what to say the next time some Tory claims Johnson “got all the big calls right” with COVID.

1. He skipped the first five emergency COBRA meetings because he was swanning around Chequers, pretending COVID was just like flu

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3. First lockdown later than many other EU countries, undoubtedly causing unnecessary deaths

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5. Spaffed £bns on Eat Out To Help Out - which merely gave us a worse second wave

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Nigel Farage says a huge reason for Brexit is to take back control of our own laws. He says the EU wants to "take control of every single aspect of our lives."

It's a seductive claim

Who wouldn't want control of our own laws?

But as this A-Z tweet proves, we ALREADY do!

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British values shape British laws made by British lawmakers in British Parliaments elected by British voters

Just think about ABORTION: illegal in Northern Ireland and legal in the rest of the UK. If the EU controlled every aspect of our lives, how could that be?

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The same applies to the age of concept which is 16 in the UK and from 14 to 18 in other EU countries

Then think about our laws on adoptions, allotments and ASBOs. They reflect British values and a British consensus (yes, there really is a UK Allotment Act)

Now for the Bs

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May 8, 2019
1. Received one of these Brexit Party pamphlets through the post?

Wanna know how they got your personal details & what they're going to do with them?

Well, it's easy to find out. You just need to write them a letter and pop it in the post.

Here's a template to cut and paste...
2.
 <your name>
<your address>
<the date - they'll have a month to reply>

FAO The DPO
The Brexit Party
83 Victoria Street
London, SW1H 0HW

Dear Sir or Madam

Subject access request

Please supply the data about me that I am entitled to under data protection law relating to:
3.
 - my personnel file encompassing all the personal data you hold about me
- what you are using this data for
- where you got my name and address
- where you got all other information about me that you hold
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Dec 29, 2018
The Leave camps said “75% of our laws are made in Brussels” and asked “who really runs this country?”

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From tax and sex to pensions and bombs, here's the proof WE RUN our country

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Council Tax
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Tax relief on charity donations
Business Rates
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Dec 17, 2018
TOP TEN of Theresa May's Mistakes

Retweet the one you agree with most...

1.Pretending that the wild promises of the Leave campaigns were achievable

In trying to deliver the impossible and contradictory claims of Johnson and Farage, she was doomed to failure from the start.
2. Interpreting the EU referendum (and its 17.4m Leave voters) as if all they cared about was reducing immigration.

There is strong evidence that people care more about enabling free trade than hammering immigration, but it backed up her long-standing prejudices.
3. Rounding up 51.9% to 100%

And claiming that she could interpret the ‘will of the people’ and that they had spoken as one – this classic ruse of dictatorial regimes was bound to backfire sooner or later.
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