CF40 issued an analysis on the Middle East "black swan" mp.weixin.qq.com/s/C_WGo4CsVcPw…
The Middle East is the "heart" of global oil supply. The #Gulf reserves account for 60% of the world's oil reserves, and production accounts for nearly 1/3.
One of the most direct consequences of the #US-Iranconflict is the soaring oil prices.
In the short term, sharp changes in oil prices do have a short-term impact on China.
Because oil accounts for less than 20% of China's energy structure, and energy costs do not account for a large proportion of the total economic cost, oil price fluctuations will generally be more easily absorbed by the economy and will not have effect on the total output.
Only a sharp and long-term rise in oil prices will make a difference on the economy and inflation. Once navigation in the #StraitofHormuz is blocked, Iraq ’s export will be suspended almost completely, and the risks facing Kuwait and Qatar are second only to Iraq.
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