Thread by @nicolaborri

My #COVID2019 update for #Italy March 26 [thread]
number of new cases +6153, number of total cases + 4492, number of deaths +712
Although todays number are above yesterday's I would argue that they are not bad and confirm the slowing trend growth of the virus spread #Stay

1/ Daily number of deaths (712) implies increase of 8.8% in total deaths. Although dramatic, it also confirms slow down growth rate of deaths (cf. figure). Caveat: many sources argue deaths not counted properly, as many people die at home not accounted for

2/ Daily number of positive went up a bit with respect to yesterday (+7.8%). However, we know this number depends critically on number of tests which increased substantially with respect to previous day (cf. following tweet)

3/ number of tests went up substantially (+11.3%) and, correspondly, positive-to-test ratio went down to 16.8%. Larger number of tests can easily explain increase in positive cases

4/ Numner of people admitted in ICU went up a bit (+3.5%), but this increase in still one of the lowest in the last days

5/ More encouraging data come from the regional breakdown. I will focus on number of deaths but also enclose figure for positives. Slopes for all regions are flattening and they are becoming more similar. This to me is a sign that the lockdown is making regions more similar

6/ Aggregate evolution still says there is a long way to go. But in the mean time, as always, #StayAtHome #staysafe #staystrong